Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Wyoming Safe R

Wyoming — U.S. Senate

Portrait of Harriet Hageman

Republican

Harriet Hageman

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Wyoming features Republican nominee Harriet Hageman, the current U.S. Representative for Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District, against Democratic nominee James Byrd, a geologist and former Wyoming State Representative. The seat is open following incumbent Republican Cynthia Lummis's decision not to seek re-election. The race hinges on traditional Wyoming priorities, including natural resource management, federal land policy, energy development, and inflation, alongside broader governance philosophies. Major election handicappers rate the contest as Solid Republican or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
95.9%
Democrats
3.1%
Kalshi ↗
Harriet Hageman
97.9%
James Byrd
1.9%
Kalshi ↗
Harriet Hageman
99.9%
Jimmy Skovgard
0.1%
Reid Rasner
0.1%
Kalshi ↗
James Byrd
99.0%
Billy Benavidez
2.0%

All markets →

01

Energy and Public Lands

high salience

While Hageman focuses on deregulating federal lands and protecting traditional fossil fuels, Byrd emphasizes protecting public land access and expanding advanced nuclear energy and carbon storage.

Democratic James Byrd

Supports public land access and energy innovation

Byrd advocates for fiercely protecting public access to Wyoming's lands for hunting, fishing, and outdoor recreation against federal overreach or corporate sell-off schemes. He supports traditional energy workers while promoting Wyoming as an energy laboratory through next-generation nuclear technology and carbon capture storage.

  • Protects public access to federal lands for recreation, hunting, and fishing against sell-off schemes
  • Supports traditional energy workers alongside modern energy development
  • Promotes next-generation nuclear technology such as the Kemmerer project and deep geologic carbon storage

“I will fiercely protect public access to our lands for hunting, fishing, and outdoor recreation against any federal overreach or corporate sell-off schemes.”

“Simultaneously, we must secure a future for our traditional energy workers while positioning Wyoming as the World’s Energy Lab.”

Republican Harriet Hageman

Supports energy independence and land reform

Hageman prioritizes U.S. energy independence by supporting Wyoming's oil, gas, and coal industries against restrictive federal regulations. She champions federal land management reform, advocating for local control, multiple-use requirements, and opposition to rules like the 2001 Roadless Rule.

  • Defends traditional coal, oil, and natural gas industries to achieve energy independence
  • Opposes federal regulatory overreach, including the 2001 Roadless Rule and agency micromanagement
  • Advocates for multiple-use land requirements and state-led management of federal acreage

“I will always support and fight for energy independence and to protect our oil, gas and coal industries and in Wyoming.”

“I believe the Roadless Rule is one of the most destructive regulations ever adopted in the history of the United States in terms of being able to protect our forests, our watersheds, and our surrounding lands.”

02

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Hageman seeks to reduce inflation through federal spending and tax cuts, whereas Byrd targets the 'Daily Squeeze' through targeted support for working families and small-town economies.

Democratic James Byrd

Tackles daily squeeze on working families

Byrd focuses on the financial strain facing working families due to rising prices for groceries, gas, and housing across Wyoming. He advocates for economic policies that support small-town growth and prevent local families from being priced out.

  • Focuses on addressing the 'Daily Squeeze' caused by grocery, gas, and housing prices
  • Supports economic growth policies aimed at helping small towns and working families thrive

“Working families are getting hammered by the "Daily Squeeze."”

Republican Harriet Hageman

Opposes federal spending and tax hikes

Hageman argues that excessive federal spending drives an inflationary spiral that functions as a hidden tax on families. She signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge and opposes tax increases, maintaining that private industry rather than government drives economic prosperity.

  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge and opposes any federal tax increases
  • Advocates cutting federal spending and shrinking the size of the federal government
  • Supports preserving provisions of the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

“In Congress, I will fight any effort to raise taxes and, instead, focus on ways to cut both federal spending and taxes.”

“High inflation is a hidden tax on Americans at the grocery store, at the gas pump, and in every aspect of our lives.”

03

Healthcare

medium salience

Byrd advocates for federal assistance to preserve rural clinics and lower drug prices, while Hageman favors local-level healthcare solutions and federal waivers.

Democratic James Byrd

Protects rural healthcare and community clinics

Byrd emphasizes that protecting rural healthcare infrastructure is critical to the survival of small Wyoming towns. He advocates for protecting critical access hospitals, strengthening community clinics, and lowering prescription drug costs.

  • Prioritizes federal support for rural critical access hospitals and community health clinics
  • Advocates for lowering prescription drug costs for working families

“Protecting critical access hospitals and community clinics is a matter of survival for our rural towns.”

Republican Harriet Hageman

Supports local healthcare solutions and waivers

Hageman supports addressing healthcare at the local level rather than through federal government mandates. She advocates for federal waivers to allow state-level innovation, support for aging populations through home care, and expanded mental health facilities.

  • Favors local-level healthcare solutions over federal mandates and seeks federal waivers
  • Supports expanding geriatric care training and keeping seniors in home care
  • Advocates for increased local resources and beds for mental health treatment

“The solutions to the health-care situation in this Country are to be found at the local level, not with the federal government.”

04

Government Oversight and Bureaucracy

medium salience

Both candidates oppose delegating power to unelected bureaucrats, with Hageman seeking structural reform of federal regulatory and intelligence agencies while Byrd focuses on restoring Congress's budgeting and legislative role.

Democratic James Byrd

Demands restored congressional legislative authority

Byrd advocates restoring Congress to its proper constitutional deliberative role to check executive overreach and pass real budgets. He opposes delegating legislative responsibilities to unelected agency bureaucrats.

  • Advocates for Congress to restore its proper legislative and budgeting duties
  • Opposes outsourcing constitutional authority to unelected federal agency bureaucrats

“We must restore both chambers of Congress to their proper legislative functions. That means stepping up, debating in good faith, passing real budgets, and checking executive overreach rather than outsourcing our constitutional duties to unelected agency bureaucrats.”

Republican Harriet Hageman

Seeks to dismantle administrative overreach

Hageman campaigns against regulatory agency overreach, seeking to curtail the power of unelected federal bureaucrats and reform FISA surveillance laws. She serves on the House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.

  • Serves on the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government
  • Demands fundamental reform of the Administrative State and federal regulatory power
  • Advocates reforming FISA laws to prevent government surveillance and Fourth Amendment violations

“We need real and fundamental reform of the Administrative State.”

05

Election Integrity and Voting

medium salience

Hageman advocates for strict voter identification and proof-of-citizenship requirements, whereas Byrd emphasizes upgrading voting machine infrastructure.

Democratic James Byrd

Supports modernizing voting machine infrastructure

Byrd has previously prioritized updating and modernizing state voting machines and electronic election management systems to ensure efficient administration.

  • Supported upgrading voting machines and the statewide voting infrastructure

“New voting machines and upgrade existing statewide system”

Republican Harriet Hageman

Supports strict voter ID and security

Hageman strongly supports strict election integrity measures, including mandatory voter identification and ending unsolicited mail-in ballot distributions. In the 119th Congress, she voted in favor of the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act.

  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal election registration
  • Supports mandatory photo identification requirements for voting
  • Opposes unsolicited mass mailing of absentee ballots

“There is also no good, commonsense argument against requiring people to show identification to vote.”

06

Border Security and Immigration

medium salience
Democratic James Byrd No documented position in our sources

Republican Harriet Hageman

Supports strict border enforcement measures

Hageman views southern border security as an essential element of national sovereignty and public safety. She supports strict measures to prevent illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and human trafficking, and voted for the Laken Riley Act in Congress.

  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act in the 119th Congress
  • Advocates securing the southern border to prevent illegal immigration, human trafficking, and illicit drug flows

“Every day that we fail to stop drugs, human trafficking, and hundreds of thousands of illegal aliens flooding across our border, we are destroying our country’s sovereignty and squandering the future for our children and grandchildren.”

07

Abortion

medium salience
Democratic James Byrd No documented position in our sources

Republican Harriet Hageman

Opposes abortion and supports fetal rights

Hageman maintains that human life begins at conception and strongly opposes abortion. She supports legislation protecting unborn children, citing scientific evidence regarding fetal heartbeats and pain perception.

  • Believes human life begins at the moment of conception
  • Supports federal and state legislation protecting unborn children

“The most basic fundamental right we all hold is the right to life.”

“Abortion will one day be remembered as a grave stain on American history.”

08

Gun Rights

medium salience
Democratic James Byrd No documented position in our sources

Republican Harriet Hageman

Opposes federal gun control legislation

Hageman strongly defends the Second Amendment, opposing federal efforts to restrict firearms ownership or impose new gun regulations on law-abiding citizens.

  • Opposes federal gun control measures and defends individual constitutional carry rights

“I will always fight to protect our Second Amendment, and will never back down to the tyranny of this Administration or any others who are attempting to infringe upon our Constitutional rights.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Wyoming Senate Election Winner

95.9% Republicans
3.1% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 95.9DEMOCRATS 3.1

Kalshi ↗

Wyoming Senate winner?

97.9% Harriet Hageman
1.9% James Byrd
255075100AUG 1AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16PARTY 97.9HAGEMAN 97.9PARTY 2.2BYRD 1.9

Kalshi ↗

Wyoming Republican Senate nominee?

99.9% Harriet Hageman
0.1% Jimmy Skovgard
0.1% Reid Rasner
255075100AUG 4AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16HAGEMAN 99.9SKOVGARD 0.1RASNER 0.1

Kalshi ↗

Wyoming Democratic Senate nominee?

99.0% James Byrd
2.0% Billy Benavidez
255075100AUG 1AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16BYRD 99.0BENAVIDEZ 2.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.