Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Virginia Safe D

Virginia — U.S. Senate

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner faces Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army Major General and former CIA senior advisor, in the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate election. The race hinges on Warner's 17-year Senate record on infrastructure, technology manufacturing, and national intelligence versus Mizusawa's military leadership, foreign policy background, and conservative fiscal platform. Major election handicappers—including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill—rate the general election matchup as Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
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95.5%
Republicans
4.5%
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Kalshi ↗
Mark Warner
98.0%
Bert Mizusawa
3.5%
Kalshi ↗
Bert Mizusawa
99.9%
Jason Miyares
2.1%
Chuck Smith
1.0%
Winsome Earle-Sears
0.5%
Kim Farington
0.1%
Aldous Mina
0.1%
Bryce Reeves
0.1%
David Williams
0.1%

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01

Economy, Taxes, and Fiscal Policy

high salience

Warner emphasizes middle-class relief and housing supply investments funded by progressive tax reform, whereas Mizusawa focuses on curbing federal spending and simplifying the tax code with fewer brackets.

Democratic Mark Warner

Supports middle-class tax relief and housing reform

Warner advocates for lowering middle-class living costs by expanding housing supply, permitting reform, and easing mortgages for first-time buyers. He calls for a fairer tax code that rewards labor over wealth while criticizing corporate tax cuts and foreign tariffs.

  • Proposes expanding housing supply by encouraging structure rehabilitation, accelerating permitting, and assisting first-time buyers
  • Advocates for child care labor solutions to reduce household child care costs
  • Voted in favor of the No Tax on Tips Act and opposed the 2025 Republican reconciliation act

“We need an economy that rewards work, not just wealth.”

“Americans are feeling the squeeze. Prices are rising, health care is getting more expensive, and we’ve got a tax system that favors the wealthiest over working families.”

Republican Bert Mizusawa

Supports spending cuts and tax simplification

Mizusawa pledges to bring federal spending under control and focus the government on core functions to tackle national debt. He advocates simplifying the tax code through larger standard deductions and fewer tax brackets.

  • Pledges to control excessive spending and limit government to core constitutional functions
  • Proposes a simpler tax code with fewer brackets and larger standard deductions
  • Identifies the U.S. monetary system as a primary public policy passion

“I support a simpler tax code with fewer brackets and larger standard deductions.”

“I will focus government on its core functions and bring excessive spending under control.”

02

National Security and Defense

high salience

Warner highlights his legislative leadership on intelligence and high-tech supply chain protection, while Mizusawa emphasizes his 41-year combat military career and authorship of the Trump foreign policy doctrine.

Democratic Mark Warner

Promotes defense technology and China counter-strategy

Warner focuses on advancing U.S. security leadership in key emerging technologies like AI, cybersecurity, and quantum computing. As Vice Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, he authored the CHIPS and Science Act to secure domestic semiconductor supply chains and counter Chinese economic aggression.

  • Authored the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act to restore domestic semiconductor manufacturing
  • Leads Intelligence Committee efforts countering Chinese technological and supply chain aggression
  • Voted in favor of the FY2026 and FY2024 National Defense Authorization Acts and foreign military aid

“Mark has led bipartisan efforts to counter the Chinese government’s technological and economic aggression – from securing supply chains to cracking down on foreign investments that threaten U.S. national security.”

Republican Bert Mizusawa

Advocates pro-military policies and efficient defense

A retired Major General and West Point valedictorian, Mizusawa positions himself as an authoritative advocate for military readiness and defense budget efficiency. He authored the Trump foreign policy doctrine and served as senior advisor to the CIA Director.

  • Highlights 41 years of military service, four combat tours, and promotion to Major General
  • Authored the Trump doctrine for foreign policy and served as CIA senior advisor
  • Pledges to promote efficient defense spending and pro-military policies in the Senate

“Will be highest ranking officer and must highly decorated. Combat veteran in US Senate. Will be av respected, authoritative voice on national security policy and efficient defense spending.”

03

Border Security and Immigration

medium salience

Warner demonstrates his border record through votes for statutory detention of criminal offenders, while Mizusawa calls for strict border security paired with mandatory cultural assimilation for legal immigrants.

Democratic Mark Warner

Supports targeted enforcement and legal detention

Warner supports targeted immigration enforcement measures, including voting for federal legislation requiring detention of non-citizens arrested for property crimes.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act to require DHS detention of non-citizens arrested for burglary, theft, or shoplifting

“The Laken Riley Act (S.5) was a bill passed by the 119th Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump (R) on 1/29/2025, which required the Department of Homeland Security to detain certain individuals residing in the United States without legal permission who have been arrested for burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting...”

Republican Bert Mizusawa

Supports strict border security and legal assimilation

Mizusawa advocates for strict border security while simplifying lawful immigration for individuals willing to assimilate. He emphasizes uniform law enforcement across the nation.

  • Calls for securing borders while facilitating legal immigration for those seeking the American dream
  • Requires legal immigrants to assimilate to the American way of life
  • Pledges uniform enforcement of immigration laws

“We must keep our borders secure while making legal immigration for those seeking the American Dream an easier process.”

“We are a nation of laws and must enforce the law uniformly”

04

Gun Policy

medium salience

Warner supports banning assault weapons and implementing universal background checks, whereas Mizusawa opposes any new restrictions on firearm ownership.

Democratic Mark Warner

Supports assault weapon bans and background checks

Warner advocates for gun violence prevention laws, supporting bans on assault weapons and mandatory universal background checks while preserving basic gun ownership rights.

  • Supports assault weapon bans and expanding background checks to curb gun violence
  • Voted against a congressional resolution nullifying ATF criteria on stabilizing firearm braces

“He believes that Americans have the right to own guns, but that we need commonsense solutions like banning assault weapons and background checks to keep our communities safe.”

Republican Bert Mizusawa

Opposes restrictions on firearm ownership

Mizusawa strongly supports Second Amendment rights, framing firearm ownership as critical to individual freedom and citizen self-defense.

  • Pledges to defend constitutional rights to citizen self-defense
  • Opposes legislative efforts infringing on gun ownership rights

“I will defend our rights to citizen self-defense and fight any effort to infringe on that right.”

05

Energy and Infrastructure

medium salience

Warner focuses on clean-energy job creation and corporate accountability for AI grid demands, whereas Mizusawa champions expanding nuclear power to lower household electricity bills.

Democratic Mark Warner

Supports clean energy and infrastructure investments

Warner co-authored the bipartisan infrastructure law to expand high-speed internet and transportation across Virginia. He champions clean energy investments and calls on AI companies to contribute to grid energy demands.

  • Primary author of bipartisan infrastructure legislation funding broadband and transit projects across Virginia
  • Supports clean-energy jobs and demands AI corporations address their electrical grid energy usage

“He has also championed clean-energy projects that are creating thousands of jobs and building a stronger, more competitive economy.”

Republican Bert Mizusawa

Supports expanding nuclear power production

Mizusawa advocates bringing new nuclear power facilities online to reduce energy costs for households, describing modern nuclear energy as safe, clean, and cheap.

  • Supports deploying modern nuclear power technology to lower electricity costs
  • Frames nuclear energy as safe, cheap, reliable, and clean

“I support bringing new nuclear power on-line to slash the ever-increasing energy costs for American households.”

06

Government Reform and Term Limits

low salience

Warner highlights his bipartisan legislative record and electoral reform work, while Mizusawa attacks Warner for running for a fourth term despite an earlier two-term pledge.

Democratic Mark Warner

Supports electoral integrity and bipartisan cooperation

Warner negotiated the revised Electoral Count Act to protect presidential election certification. He highlights his record of authoring 85 bipartisan bills signed into law by presidents of both parties.

  • Helped pass the Electoral Count Act revision clarifying election certification limits
  • Highlights 85 sponsored bills signed into law under both Democratic and Republican administrations

“Mark helped negotiate and pass a revised Electoral Count Act to make clear that the Vice President does not have the power to overturn the will of the people when Congress is certifying the presidential election.”

Republican Bert Mizusawa

Supports term limits and strict legal enforcement

Mizusawa criticizes Warner for seeking a fourth term despite earlier promises to serve no more than two terms, advocating for fresh leadership and uniform law enforcement.

  • Criticizes Warner for violating his earlier pledge to serve no more than two Senate terms
  • Emphasizes judicial professionalism and uniform law enforcement

“Mark Warner promised to serve “no more than two terms” in the U.S. Senate and is now running for a FOURTH term!”

07

Healthcare

medium salience

Democratic Mark Warner

Supports strengthening ACA and lowering drug prices

Warner helped write the Affordable Care Act and continues to support strengthening its protections. He championed insulin cost caps, lower prescription drug prices for seniors, and expanded toxic exposure medical care for veterans under the PACT Act.

  • Helped author the Affordable Care Act and fights to extend ACA premium tax credits
  • Supported capping insulin prices and lowering prescription costs for seniors
  • Supported the PACT Act to expand VA healthcare for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits

“Mark helped cap the price of insulin, lower prescription drug costs for seniors, and is fighting to extend tax credits that make healthcare more affordable for the middle class.”

Republican Bert Mizusawa No documented position in our sources
08

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Democratic Mark Warner

Supports constitutional protection for abortion rights

Warner supports federal and state constitutional protections for abortion rights, criticizing the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. He supports Virginia state amendments protecting abortion, marriage equality, and voting rights.

  • Endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund and Virginia NOW PAC
  • Supports passing a Virginia constitutional amendment to guarantee abortion access

“2026 is a critical year for abortion access in Virginia because voters will have an opportunity to constitutionally protect abortion access in the Commonwealth. Mark will work to ensure this amendment passes...”

Republican Bert Mizusawa No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Virginia Senate Election Winner

95.5% Democrats
4.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 95.5REPUBLICANS 4.5

Polymarket ↗

Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 100.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0

Kalshi ↗

Virginia Senate winner?

98.0% Mark Warner
3.5% Bert Mizusawa
255075100AUG 1AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16WARNER 98.0MIZUSAWA 3.5

Kalshi ↗

Virginia Republican Senate nominee?

99.9% Bert Mizusawa
2.1% Jason Miyares
1.0% Chuck Smith

+5 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MIZUSAWA 99.9MIYARES 2.1SMITH 1.0EARLE-SEARS 0.5FARINGTON 0.1WILLIAMS 0.1REEVES 0.1MINA 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.