Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Texas Toss-up

Texas — U.S. Senate

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas features Democratic nominee James Talarico, a state representative and former teacher, against Republican nominee Ken Paxton, the state Attorney General who defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff. The race hinges on whether Paxton's staunchly conservative, Trump-aligned populist platform can maintain Republican dominance in Texas against Talarico's anti-corruption, economic populist campaign. Major election forecasters rate the general election as Toss-up or Lean Republican, with polling indicating a tight contest.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
56.5%
Republicans
44.5%
Kalshi ↗
James Talarico
52.0%
Ken Paxton
47.0%
InsiderAdvantage ↗ Sep 9 · Talarico +1.0 · via RCP
James Talarico
47%
Ken Paxton
46%

All 20 polls → All markets →

01

Immigration and border security

high salience

Paxton advocates completing the border wall and carrying out mass deportations, while attacking Talarico for supporting policies that weaken border security.

Democratic James Talarico

Supports comprehensive border security reform

Talarico lists Immigration & Border Security as a core issue on his campaign platform. Opponents argue his platform reflects far-left policies that weaken border enforcement.

  • Maintains Immigration & Border Security as a canonical platform issue

Republican Ken Paxton

Supports completing wall and deportations

Paxton promises to help President Trump complete the southern border wall, secure national sovereignty, and deport illegal immigrants. As Texas Attorney General, he led national legal efforts against federal open-border policies, suing the Biden administration over 100 times.

  • Finish construction of the border wall
  • Execute deportations of criminal illegal aliens
  • Litigated over 100 lawsuits against federal border policies

“Ken Paxton will carry that fight to Washington, where he will help President Trump deport the criminal illegal aliens Joe Biden invited into the country, secure the border, and complete the construction of the border wall.”

02

Government corruption and establishment oversight

high salience

Talarico focuses his anti-corruption agenda on rejecting corporate PAC money and confronting billionaire donors, whereas Paxton defines anti-corruption as taking on the Washington establishment and ending federal witch hunts.

Democratic James Talarico

Opposes corporate PACs and corruption

Talarico centers his campaign on fighting corruption and taking power back from billionaire mega-donors and special interests. He refuses corporate PAC money and argues political division is used by elite interests to maintain power.

  • Refuses all corporate PAC money
  • Pledges to challenge billionaire mega-donors in politics
  • Frames economic top-versus-bottom division over traditional partisan splits

“The people at the top work so hard to keep us angry and divided because our unity is a threat to their wealth and power. So their cable news networks and their social media algorithms tear us apart.”

“2,000 years ago, when the powerful few rigged the system, that barefoot rabbi walked into the seat of power and flipped over the tables of injustice. To those who love our country, to those who love our neighbors: It’s time to start flipping tables”

Republican Ken Paxton

Opposes D.C. establishment and witch-hunts

Paxton portrays himself as a conservative outsider fighting special interests, lobbyists, and political witch hunts. He pledges to champion Donald Trump's goals to drain the Swamp and end the weaponization of government.

  • Take a sledgehammer to the D.C. establishment
  • End the weaponization of government against conservatives
  • Drain the Swamp in Washington

“Both President Trump and Ken Paxton have been targeted in politically motivated witch hunts because there’s nothing that scares the establishment more than courageous conservatives who never back down from standing up for the American people.”

03

Taxes, inflation, and cost of living

high salience

Paxton advocates cutting taxes, reducing government spending, and removing energy regulations, while Talarico points to direct legislative reductions in prescription drug, housing, and child care costs.

Democratic James Talarico

Supports lowering costs for working families

Talarico focuses on economic relief for working families, pointing to state legislative work to lower the costs of child care, housing, and prescription drugs. He frames tax and cost-of-living policy around shifting power to working people.

  • Lower costs of child care, housing, and prescription drugs
  • Focus policy on working-class economic support

“the biggest divide in this country is not left vs. right. It’s top vs. bottom. Billionaires want us looking left and right at each other instead of looking up at them.”

Republican Ken Paxton

Supports tax cuts and deregulation

Paxton promises to cut taxes, curb national debt over $36 trillion, and reverse inflation through deregulation and expanded domestic energy. He aligns directly with Donald Trump's economic agenda to revitalize American manufacturing and jobs.

  • Cut taxes and halt wasteful federal spending
  • Remove regulations hurting energy companies to reduce costs
  • Revitalize American manufacturing and domestic job creation

“After four years of Joe Biden causing skyrocketing inflation and declaring war on American energy, Ken Paxton will help bring down costs and remove harmful regulations designed to hurt our energy companies.”

04

Public education and parental rights

medium salience

Talarico prioritizes increasing funding for neighborhood public schools, while Paxton focuses on protecting parental rights and eradicating woke gender ideology from classrooms.

Democratic James Talarico

Supports increased public school funding

As a former public middle school teacher, Talarico places education at the center of his campaign. He highlights his record in the Texas Legislature passing major bills to fund neighborhood public schools.

  • Passed major state legislation to fund neighborhood public schools
  • Leverages professional background as a public school educator

Republican Ken Paxton

Opposes woke curriculum and gender ideology

Paxton emphasizes defending parental rights and eliminating woke indoctrination from public classrooms. He opposes transgender participation in girls' sports and LGBTQ-focused content in school curricula.

  • Defend parental rights in public education
  • Defeat the transgender movement in girls' sports
  • Remove woke indoctrination and LGBTQ-focused content from classrooms

“He will stand with President Trump to protect our gun rights, defend the unborn, and defeat the radical transgender movement that’s desperate to put men in girls’ sports and woke indoctrination in our classrooms.”

05

Abortion and social policy

medium salience

Paxton strongly opposes abortion and legal recognition of non-biological genders, while Talarico grounds his platform in faith, family, and personal freedom.

Democratic James Talarico

Supports family freedoms and faith values

Talarico includes Freedom, Family & Faith as a core campaign platform header, integrating his Christian faith into a broader vision of neighborly compassion. Opponents view his cultural stances as far-left.

  • Maintains Freedom, Family & Faith issue platform

Republican Ken Paxton

Opposes abortion and transgender recognition

Paxton promises no compromise on conservative principles, pledging to defend the unborn and counter transgender ideology. He opposes recognizing genders beyond biological reality.

  • Defend the unborn against abortion access
  • Protect traditional biological definitions of gender in law and sports
  • Defend conservative Christian principles and constitutional rights

“Talarico has embraced far-left positions that are completely out of step with Texas values, including promoting the idea that there are multiple genders beyond biological reality”

06

Healthcare and pharmaceutical industry

medium salience

Paxton pledges to challenge Big Pharma and Big Food through healthcare transparency, while Talarico highlights state legislative achievements reducing prescription drug costs.

Democratic James Talarico

Supports lower prescription drug costs

Talarico features Health Care on his campaign platform and highlights his legislative record of passing state bills to lower prescription drug costs.

  • Passed legislation lowering prescription drug costs
  • Maintains Health Care as a core platform area

Republican Ken Paxton

Supports healthcare and food transparency

Paxton advocates taking on Big Pharma and Big Food to increase corporate transparency and combat rising chronic illness. He aligns with the Make America Healthy Again movement to prioritize public well-being over pharmaceutical profits.

  • Take on Big Pharma and Big Food corporate interests
  • Increase transparency in healthcare and food systems
  • Promote Make America Healthy Again agenda

“In the Senate, he will work alongside President Trump to Make America Healthy Again by taking on Big Pharma and Big Food, increasing transparency in our food and healthcare systems, promoting healthier outcomes for Texas families, and putting the well-being of the Americans people ahead of corporate profits.”

07

Energy and environmental regulation

medium salience

Paxton seeks to dismantle regulations to expand fossil fuel production, while Talarico's platform includes environmental protection alongside energy policy.

Democratic James Talarico

Supports energy transition and protection

Talarico lists Energy & Environment as a core issue page on his campaign site. His platform addresses clean energy alongside environmental protection.

  • Maintains Energy & Environment as a canonical platform issue

Republican Ken Paxton

Supports deregulation of energy companies

Paxton opposes federal regulations on energy companies, accusing the Biden administration of declaring war on American energy. He seeks to eliminate regulations to lower consumer costs and boost production.

  • Remove regulations harming domestic energy companies
  • Expand domestic energy production to combat inflation

“After four years of Joe Biden causing skyrocketing inflation and declaring war on American energy, Ken Paxton will help bring down costs and remove harmful regulations designed to hurt our energy companies.”

08

Foreign policy and defense

low salience

Paxton opposes foreign aid spending in favor of strict America First priorities, whereas Talarico maintains a standard foreign policy platform.

Democratic James Talarico

Supports global engagement and defense

Talarico includes Foreign Policy as an official issue area on his campaign website, addressing international affairs and national security.

  • Maintains Foreign Policy as an official platform issue

Republican Ken Paxton

Supports America First foreign policy

Paxton promotes an America First foreign policy centered on peace through strength and prioritizing domestic safety over foreign aid spending. He criticizes politicians who prioritize foreign borders over domestic security.

  • Advance an America First foreign policy
  • Promote peace through strength
  • Prioritize domestic safety and citizens over foreign aid expenditures

“While many Washington career politicians are concerned with sending billions to foreign countries and protecting the borders of other nations, Ken Paxton’s top priority will always be the American people.”

09

Guns and Second Amendment

low salience

Paxton opposes gun control as an unconstitutional infringement, while Talarico addresses firearm regulations through a public safety lens.

Democratic James Talarico

Supports public safety firearm laws

Talarico addresses firearm policy under his Public Safety & Justice platform. Opponents argue Democratic firearm proposals encroach upon gun rights.

  • Maintains Public Safety & Justice campaign issue platform

Republican Ken Paxton

Opposes restrictions on gun ownership

Paxton promises to protect Second Amendment rights against federal and state restrictions, earning endorsements from major gun rights organizations.

  • Protect Second Amendment gun rights without compromise
  • Endorsed by Gun Owners of America and Texas Gun Rights PAC

“We’ve seen an unprecedented assault on our Constitutional freedoms— like our 2nd Amendment rights— from “Republicans” and Democrats alike.”

10

Technology and cryptocurrency

low salience

Paxton advocates pro-growth cryptocurrency deregulation and passing the CLARITY Act, while Talarico targets social media algorithms and tech oversight.

Democratic James Talarico

Supports regulation of tech platforms

Talarico addresses technology policy under his Social Media, AI & Tech platform, criticizing algorithms for driving public division.

  • Maintains Social Media, AI & Tech platform
  • Criticizes social media algorithms for dividing the public

“So their cable news networks and their social media algorithms tear us apart.”

Republican Ken Paxton

Supports crypto growth and CLARITY Act

Paxton advocates establishing America as the crypto capital of the world by passing the CLARITY Act and enacting pro-growth regulations for digital assets.

  • Establish America as the global crypto capital
  • Support passage of the CLARITY Act
  • Provide pro-growth regulatory frameworks for digital asset innovators

“America must be the crypto capital of the world and support innovation and growth. Digital assets are one of the defining frontiers changing the world, and the United States cannot afford to fall behind.”

Polls 20

updated Sep 16
204060SEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPTALARICO 47PAXTON 46

Source: RealClearPolling · Cornyn vs. Allred ↗ · Talarico vs. Paxton ↗ · Paxton vs. Allred ↗ · Paxton vs. Talarico ↗

Pollster Date Sample Result Spread
InsiderAdvantage Sep 9 1200 LV Ken Paxton 46% / James Talarico 47% Talarico +1.0
Univision Sep 4 1000 RV Ken Paxton 43% / James Talarico 48% Talarico +5.0
Fabrizio/Anzalone Sep 1 895 LV Ken Paxton 44% / James Talarico 48% Talarico +4.0
TPPF Aug 26 1167 LV Ken Paxton 50% / James Talarico 50%
TPOR Aug 24 1000 LV Ken Paxton 42% / James Talarico 48% Talarico +6.0
University of Texas Aug 13 1218 LV Ken Paxton 39% / James Talarico 42% Talarico +3.0
Emerson Aug 12 1000 RV Allred 38% / Cornyn 45% Cornyn +7.0
Emerson Aug 12 1000 RV Allred 41% / Ken Paxton 46% Paxton +5.0
Emerson Aug 10 1000 LV Ken Paxton 47% / James Talarico 46% Paxton +1.0
Texas A&M/Siena Jul 30 619 LV Ken Paxton 43% / James Talarico 47% Talarico +4.0
TSU/YouGov Jul 30 1200 LV Ken Paxton 45% / James Talarico 47% Talarico +2.0
FOX News Jul 27 1006 RV Ken Paxton 48% / James Talarico 51% Talarico +3.0
TPOR Jul 17 1048 LV Ken Paxton 40% / James Talarico 45% Talarico +5.0
NY Times/Siena Jun 27 656 LV Ken Paxton 47% / James Talarico 47%
University of Texas Jun 12 1200 RV Ken Paxton 43% / James Talarico 42% Paxton +1.0
Quantus Insights Jun 4 800 LV Ken Paxton 45% / James Talarico 43% Paxton +2.0
Texas A&M/Siena Jun 4 807 LV Ken Paxton 46% / James Talarico 46%
U. of Houston/TSU Oct 1 1650 RV Allred 47% / Ken Paxton 48% Paxton +1.0
U. of Houston/TSU Oct 1 1650 RV Allred 46% / Cornyn 48% Cornyn +2.0
Emerson Aug 12 1000 RV Allred 41% / Ken Paxton 46% Paxton +5.0

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Texas Senate Election Winner

56.5% Democrats
44.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 56.5REPUBLICANS 44.5

Kalshi ↗

Texas Senate winner?

52.0% James Talarico
47.0% Ken Paxton
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16TALARICO 52.0PAXTON 47.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.