2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Texas Toss-up
Texas — U.S. Senate
Democratic
James Talarico
Republican
Ken Paxton
The 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election features Democratic state Representative James Talarico against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, following Paxton's primary runoff defeat of incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Major forecasters rate the general election between Likely Republican, Lean Republican, and Toss-up, making it one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country. The race hinges on sharp contrasts over immigration and border enforcement, economic relief, campaign ethics, government accountability, and social issues.
Border security and immigration
high saliencePaxton advocates completing the border wall and deporting undocumented immigrants, while Talarico lists immigration and border security as a platform priority focused on legislative reform.
James Talarico
Supports comprehensive border security reform
Talarico includes immigration and border security as a central pillar of his legislative platform. He focuses on balanced solutions that address border security alongside broader economic and humanitarian needs.
- Includes immigration and border security among core campaign issue areas
Ken Paxton
Supports completing wall and mass deportations
Paxton prioritizes national sovereignty and strict border enforcement. He pledges to assist President Trump in finishing the border wall and executing mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.
- Finish the southern border wall
- Deport criminal illegal aliens and end open-border policies
- Sued the Biden administration over 100 times over border enforcement
“Ken Paxton is running to help President Trump finish the border wall and protect our national sovereignty.”
Economy and cost of living
high saliencePaxton emphasizes cutting taxes and slashing spending to fight inflation, whereas Talarico targets direct cost reductions for housing, healthcare, and childcare.
James Talarico
Supports lowering costs for working families
Talarico focuses his economic program on reducing living expenses for middle- and lower-income families. He points to his legislative record on funding public education, lowering prescription drug costs, and easing childcare expenses.
- Passed legislation lowering costs of prescription drugs, childcare, and housing
- Opposes tax cuts for wealthy donors and corporations
- Promotes economic relief for working class communities
“passed major legislation to fund our neighborhood schools, expand job opportunities for young adults, and lower the cost of child care, housing, and prescription drugs”
Ken Paxton
Supports tax cuts and deregulation
Paxton advocates for fiscal conservatism to curb inflation and lower national debt. He supports cutting taxes, slashing federal spending, and removing energy sector regulations to lower consumer costs.
- Cut federal taxes and reduce wasteful spending to address $36 trillion national debt
- Deregulate energy companies to bring down energy costs
- Revitalize domestic manufacturing and create American jobs
“Ken Paxton is a strong fiscal conservative who will fight to cut taxes and stop the wasteful spending that has led to our nation being in over $36 trillion dollars in debt.”
Government reform and corruption
high salienceTalarico focuses reform efforts on banning corporate PAC money and curbing billionaire political influence, whereas Paxton focuses on dismantling federal agencies and confronting the political establishment.
James Talarico
Supports reforming money in politics
Talarico frames his campaign around curbing the power of corporate PACs and billionaire mega-donors. He rejects corporate PAC contributions and pledges to fight political influence-peddling.
- Refuses all corporate PAC money
- Pledges to challenge billionaire influence in political campaigns
- Focuses campaign messaging on restoring power to working people
“The people at the top work so hard to keep us angry and divided because our unity is a threat to their wealth and power.”
“the only member of the Texas Legislature who has never taken corporate PAC money.”
Ken Paxton
Supports dismantling federal establishment institutions
Paxton targets federal bureaucracy, promising to drain the D.C. establishment and stop politically motivated weaponization of federal agencies. He positions himself as a conservative outsider targeted by political opponents.
- End the weaponization of federal government agencies
- Drain the D.C. establishment and lobbyist influence
- Champion conservative outsider movement alongside Donald Trump
“Both President Trump and Ken Paxton have been targeted in politically motivated witch hunts because there’s nothing that scares the establishment more than courageous conservatives who never back down from standing up for the American people.”
Healthcare and Big Pharma
medium saliencePaxton emphasizes consumer transparency and taking on Big Pharma and Big Food corporate profits, while Talarico targets direct state price caps on prescription drugs and expanded healthcare access.
James Talarico
Supports capping prescription drug costs
Talarico treats healthcare affordability as a core legislative priority. He cites his legislative record in Texas on capping insulin costs and lowering prescription prices.
- Passed legislation to lower prescription drug and insulin costs
- Supports expanding healthcare access for Texas working families
Ken Paxton
Supports reforming Big Pharma and Big Food
Paxton adopts a platform focused on challenging pharmaceutical and food corporate interests to combat chronic illness. He advocates for market transparency and consumer choices over corporate profits.
- Take on Big Pharma and Big Food to increase healthcare transparency
- Promote healthier outcomes and combat chronic illness
- Sued vaccine manufacturers like Pfizer over public representations
“In the Senate, he will work alongside President Trump to Make America Healthy Again by taking on Big Pharma and Big Food, increasing transparency in our food and healthcare systems, promoting healthier outcomes for Texas families, and putting the well-being of the Americans people ahead of corporate profits.”
Public education and parental rights
medium salienceTalarico focuses on expanding funding for public neighborhood schools, whereas Paxton prioritizes parental rights and removing gender ideology and woke indoctrination from classrooms.
James Talarico
Supports increased public school funding
Drawing on his background as a former public middle school teacher, Talarico makes public education funding a central campaign plank. He advocates for direct state funding of neighborhood public schools.
- Passed legislation to increase funding for neighborhood public schools
- Opposes efforts to defund public education
- Leverages middle school educator background to shape education policy
Ken Paxton
Supports parental rights and classroom restrictions
Paxton champions parental rights in education and opposes progressive gender ideology in public schools. He promises to eliminate woke indoctrination from public classrooms.
- Defend parental rights in public education
- Stop gender ideology and woke content in school curricula
- Keep biological males out of female school sports
“He will stand with President Trump to protect our gun rights, defend the unborn, and defeat the radical transgender movement that’s desperate to put men in girls’ sports and woke indoctrination in our classrooms.”
Energy and environment
medium saliencePaxton supports removing regulations on oil and gas companies to increase production, while Talarico includes environmental management in his core platform.
James Talarico
Supports balanced energy transition
Talarico lists energy and the environment among his main policy issue areas. He seeks to balance Texas's traditional energy production with environmental protections.
- Identifies energy and environment as a primary campaign issue area
Ken Paxton
Supports deregulating traditional energy industries
Paxton supports maximizing domestic oil and gas production by rolling back federal regulations. He opposes environmental restrictions imposed during the Biden administration.
- End federal regulations on domestic energy producers
- Lower fuel and electricity costs through deregulation
- Promote American energy independence
“After four years of Joe Biden causing skyrocketing inflation and declaring war on American energy, Ken Paxton will help bring down costs and remove harmful regulations designed to hurt our energy companies.”
Foreign policy and national defense
medium saliencePaxton advocates an America First policy that reduces foreign aid in favor of border security, while Talarico includes foreign policy as a core platform issue.
James Talarico
Supports diplomatic foreign policy
Talarico lists foreign policy as a key topic on his issue platform, focusing on diplomatic engagement and national security.
- Lists foreign policy among official platform categories
Ken Paxton
Supports America First foreign policy
Paxton advocates an 'America First' approach to international relations. He opposes excessive foreign financial assistance and emphasizes domestic security needs.
- Advance peace through strength foreign policy
- Prioritize American citizens and border security over foreign aid spending
- Align foreign policy with President Trump's platform
“Alongside President Trump, he will work to advance an America First foreign policy that promotes peace through strength, prioritizes our nation’s interests first and foremost, and ensures the safety of American citizens.”
Guns and Second Amendment
medium saliencePaxton opposes gun control regulations under Second Amendment protections, whereas Talarico frames gun policy through public safety and justice reform.
James Talarico
Supports gun safety regulations
Talarico includes public safety and justice among his campaign issues, supporting gun safety measures to curb gun violence.
- Lists public safety and justice as key issue focus
Ken Paxton
Opposes restrictions on gun rights
Paxton strictly defends Second Amendment rights against federal and state gun control measures, receiving endorsements from major gun rights organizations.
- Oppose new gun restrictions and defend Second Amendment freedoms
- Endorsed by Gun Owners of America and Texas Gun Rights PAC
“He will stand with President Trump to protect our gun rights, defend the unborn, and defeat the radical transgender movement that’s desperate to put men in girls’ sports and woke indoctrination in our classrooms.”
Cryptocurrency and digital assets
low saliencePaxton promotes a clear pro-growth regulatory framework for digital assets like the CLARITY Act, while Talarico has no documented position.
Ken Paxton
Supports pro-crypto regulations
Paxton advocates establishing the U.S. as a global center for cryptocurrency innovation. He supports legislative efforts like the CLARITY Act to establish clear regulatory frameworks.
- Support legislation like the CLARITY Act to provide regulatory certainty
- Position America as the global leader in digital assets and crypto innovation
“America must be the crypto capital of the world and support innovation and growth.”
Abortion
low saliencePaxton explicitly commits to defending the unborn in his platform, while Talarico's official stance is not documented in the provided source text.
Ken Paxton
Opposes abortion access
Paxton maintains a pro-life platform, pledging to defend anti-abortion policies at the federal level.
- Defend anti-abortion laws and protect the unborn
- Endorsed by Texas Right to Life PAC in past campaigns
“He will stand with President Trump to protect our gun rights, defend the unborn, and defeat the radical transgender movement that’s desperate to put men in girls’ sports and woke indoctrination in our classrooms.”