Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Tennessee Safe R

Tennessee — U.S. Senate

Portrait of Marquita Bradshaw

Democrat

Marquita Bradshaw

In Tennessee, Republican incumbent Senator Bill Hagerty faces Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw in the November 3, 2026 general election following primary victories on August 6, 2026. The race hinges on sharp policy contrasts between Hagerty's conservative voting record on taxes, border enforcement, and regulatory rollbacks, and Bradshaw's progressive platform advocating for Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and systemic reform. Nonpartisan election forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and DDHQ/The Hill rate the race as Solid or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
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96.4%
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3.6%
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Kalshi ↗
Bill Hagerty
97.0%
Marquita Bradshaw
4.3%

All markets →

01

Economy and Taxes

high salience

Bradshaw supports a $15 federal minimum wage and progressive tax restructuring, whereas Hagerty voted for tax policy revisions in H.R.1 and supported tip tax deductions while opposing the Inflation Reduction Act.

Democratic Marquita Bradshaw

Supports living wage and tax restructuring

Bradshaw advocates for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour and restructuring the tax code to relieve working families from regressive tax burdens. She proposes transitioning toward a circular economy with green jobs and investments in small and medium-sized businesses.

  • Demands federal recognition of a living wage starting at $15 per hour
  • Calls for restructuring the regressive tax system to reduce taxes on working Americans
  • Supports transitioning to a circular economy with green infrastructure investments

“This means fully and aggressively fighting for the federal recognition & implementation of a living wage beginning at immediately increasing the minimum wage to $15.00 an hour.”

“Restructure the regressive tax system to fairly tax all working Americans, removing the burden of income, sales & property taxes from the working population.”

Republican Bill Hagerty

Supports tax relief and spending limits

Hagerty supported budget reconciliation and tax policy changes in H.R.1 and backed a federal tax deduction for tips under the No Tax on Tips Act. He voted against major spending and tax bills including the Inflation Reduction Act and the American Rescue Plan Act.

  • Voted Yea on the 2025 H.R.1 reconciliation bill addressing debt limits and tax policy
  • Supported S.129 creating a tax deduction of up to $25,000 for tips
  • Voted Nay on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
02

Environment and Climate Change

high salience

Bradshaw advocates for the Green New Deal and corporate ESG requirements, while Hagerty voted to block Labor Department ESG rules and opposed the Inflation Reduction Act.

Democratic Marquita Bradshaw

Supports Green New Deal and climate action

Bradshaw advocates for the Green New Deal to transition the economy toward clean renewable energy and net-zero waste. She calls for corporate ESG plans and major investments in green infrastructure and environmental research jobs.

  • Supports the Green New Deal and a just transition to clean renewable energy
  • Calls for corporate ESG requirements to remediate waste and achieve net-zero harm
  • Proposes heavy investments in green infrastructure and environmental science careers

“As a fighter for environmental justice my entire life, I am proud to stand as someone who sees the unending benefits of this deal, not only for our Planet’s health but for the future of our state’s economy.”

Republican Bill Hagerty

Opposes federal ESG regulations and climate mandates

Hagerty voted to roll back federal Department of Labor rules allowing retirement plans to consider environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) factors. He also voted against federal climate and infrastructure investments in the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

  • Voted Yea on H.J.Res.30 to nullify Labor Department ESG investment rules
  • Voted Nay on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
  • Voted Nay on the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021
03

Healthcare

high salience

Bradshaw advocates for Medicare for All and Medicaid expansion, while Hagerty voted against extending health insurance premium tax credits and drug price negotiations.

Democratic Marquita Bradshaw

Supports Medicare for All and Medicaid expansion

Bradshaw advocates for healthcare for all to prevent medical bankruptcy and save rural hospitals through Medicaid expansion. She demands comprehensive coverage that includes vision, dental, mental health, reproductive care, and addiction treatment.

  • Supports Medicare for All and expanding Medicaid to protect rural hospitals
  • Demands comprehensive healthcare coverage including dental, vision, mental health, and addiction services
  • Cites personal experience with medical bankruptcy in urging reforms to lower medical costs

“As your Senator, I will fight to ensure Tennesseans going bankrupt from seeking needed Medical Care is a thing of the past.”

“She believes healthcare legislation must be comprehensive by covering mental, dental, vision, comprehensive reproductive health and addiction wrap-around services”

Republican Bill Hagerty

Opposes federal healthcare expansions

Hagerty voted against legislation extending expanded Affordable Care Act health insurance premium tax credits and additional Medicaid funding. He also voted against the Inflation Reduction Act, which granted Medicare authority to negotiate drug prices.

  • Voted Nay on S.2882 to extend health insurance premium tax credits and Medicaid funding
  • Voted against the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and its drug price negotiation provisions
04

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience

Bradshaw supports protecting DACA recipients and abolishing ICE, whereas Hagerty voted for the Laken Riley Act to mandate federal detention of noncitizens charged with theft.

Democratic Marquita Bradshaw

Supports DACA and abolishing ICE

Bradshaw supports protections for DACA recipients and humanitarian refuge for immigrants fleeing tyranny and violence. She explicitly supports abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

  • Supports protecting DACA recipients and offering refuge to immigrant families
  • Explicitly calls to abolish U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)

“We should always be the beacon for families looking for better opportunities to find refuge from oppression, tyranny, violence, and prosecution.Abolish I.C.E.”

Republican Bill Hagerty

Supports strict border enforcement

Hagerty voted for the Laken Riley Act to require federal detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for theft crimes and allow states to sue over border enforcement. He also voted against dismissing impeachment charges against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

  • Voted Yea on S.5 (Laken Riley Act) to detain noncitizens arrested for burglary or theft
  • Voted against dismissing impeachment articles against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas
05

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Bradshaw supports federal protections for reproductive freedom, while Hagerty voted against the Women's Health Protection Act and the Right to IVF Act.

Democratic Marquita Bradshaw

Supports federal reproductive freedom

Bradshaw includes reproductive freedom as a core pillar of her campaign platform and supports incorporating reproductive healthcare into expanded federal health programs.

  • Supports codifying federal protections for reproductive freedom
  • Advocates for comprehensive reproductive healthcare coverage

“The campaign will mobilize working families across Tennessee—urban, suburban, and rural—around a practical agenda: good-paying jobs, clean air and water, strong public schools, affordable healthcare (including saving rural hospitals), reproductive freedom, bold environmental and climate action, and voting rights.”

Republican Bill Hagerty

Opposes federal abortion and IVF protections

Hagerty voted against federal legislation that sought to codify abortion access nationwide and voted against cloture on the Right to IVF Act.

  • Voted Nay on H.R.3755 (Women's Health Protection Act of 2021)
  • Voted Nay on S.4445 (Right to IVF Act) in 2024
06

Gun Policy

low salience

Bradshaw supports universal background checks for all gun purchases, while Hagerty voted to block ATF rules regulating firearm stabilizing braces.

Democratic Marquita Bradshaw

Supports universal background checks

Bradshaw supports enacting universal background checks on all firearm purchases to prevent mass shootings, domestic violence, and gun-related deaths.

  • Advocates for universal background checks for all gun purchases

“Every day, more than 300 Americans are shot or killed–whether from mass shootings that are occurring with alarming regularity to more frequent acts of domestic violence and suicide.”

Republican Bill Hagerty

Opposes firearm regulations

Hagerty voted to disapprove an ATF rule regulating firearms equipped with stabilizing braces.

  • Voted Yea on H.J.Res.44 to overturn ATF regulations on stabilizing braces
07

Criminal Justice and Law Enforcement

low salience

Bradshaw advocates for restorative justice and system overhaul to eliminate racial bias, while Hagerty has supported federal law enforcement funding.

Democratic Marquita Bradshaw

Supports community policing and restorative justice

Bradshaw advocates for restorative justice programs and community policing to reform the justice system and eliminate racial and income bias.

  • Promotes restorative justice and community policing models
  • Calls for an overhaul of the criminal justice system to remove racial and income bias

“In Tennessee, we need a fundamental overhaul of our justice system to ensure that we all are being held to an equal interpretation of the law, not one rooted in racial and income bias.”

Republican Bill Hagerty

Supports funding law enforcement

Hagerty supported federal appropriations measures providing funding for the Department of Justice and federal law enforcement activities.

  • Voted for appropriations bills funding the Department of Justice and federal law enforcement
08

Education

medium salience

Democratic Marquita Bradshaw

Supports tuition-free public college and pre-K

Bradshaw proposes funding public education at equal levels to the military, providing universal pre-K, and making technical, community, public, and HBCU colleges tuition-free. She also advocates for student debt relief and protections against predatory lenders.

  • Proposes funding federal public education at equal levels to the military
  • Calls for free tuition at public colleges, universities, community colleges, and HBCUs
  • Supports universal pre-K education and federal student debt relief

“I am a lifelong proponent of funding our education system the same as we do our military in order to promote generations of meaningful success regardless of background or location in Tennessee.”

“Expand public education to include free technical, community, HBCU, and public college. Fund education the same as our military.”

Republican Bill Hagerty No documented position in our sources
09

Democracy and Campaign Finance

low salience

Democratic Marquita Bradshaw

Supports overturning Citizens United

Bradshaw supports protecting voting rights and overturning the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision to eliminate corporate money in election campaigns.

  • Supports overturning Citizens United to restrict corporate spending in elections
  • Advocates for federal voting rights protections and fair elections

“Some have argued tthat he single most influential Supreme Court decision in our lifetimes has been the overturning of the Citizens United case. This ushered in an era of untold amounts of money being funneled into campaigns from billion-dollar corporations to buy elections.”

Republican Bill Hagerty No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Tennessee Senate Election Winner

96.4% Republicans
3.6% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 96.4DEMOCRATS 3.6

Polymarket ↗

Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 100.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0

Kalshi ↗

Tennessee Senate winner?

97.0% Bill Hagerty
4.3% Marquita Bradshaw
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16HAGERTY 97.0PARTY 96.5BRADSHAW 4.3PARTY 3.5

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.