Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · South Carolina Likely R

South Carolina — U.S. Senate

Portrait of Darline Graham

Republican

Darline Graham

Following the death of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, 2026, Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham, to fill the seat. Darline Graham then secured the Republican nomination by winning an August 25 special primary runoff against U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman, setting up a general election matchup against Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who won the Democratic primary in June. Andrews' platform focuses on healthcare access, family cost reductions, reproductive freedom, public education, and gun violence prevention, while Graham's campaign emphasizes her three-decade career in workforce development, fiscal protection of taxpayer dollars, and conservative values endorsed by Donald Trump. Major handicappers rate the election as Solid Republican (Cook Political Report) or Likely Republican (Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections).

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
87.5%
Democrats
13.5%
Kalshi ↗
Darline Graham
99.0%
Ralph Norman
1.0%
Mark Sanford
1.0%
Russell Fry
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Ralph Norman
99.0%
Trey Gowdy
1.0%
Russell Fry
1.0%
Darline Graham
1.0%
Mark Sanford
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Darline Graham
87.0%
Annie Andrews
14.0%
Kalshi ↗
Darline Graham
99.0%
Mark Sanford
1.0%
Pamela Evette
1.0%
Nancy Mace
1.0%
Scott Bessent
1.0%
Ralph Norman
1.0%
Henry McMaster
1.0%
Trey Gowdy
1.0%
Nikki Haley
1.0%
Mark Lynch
1.0%
Russell Fry
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy & Fiscal Responsibility

high salience

Andrews focuses on federal action to lower daily household costs for working families, whereas Graham emphasizes fiscal stewardship of taxpayer dollars and expanding job placement opportunities based on her state agency record.

Democratic Annie Andrews

Supports economy for working people

Andrews focuses on lowering costs for everyday family expenses such as groceries and child care. She advocates for economic policies designed to support working families and address rising living expenses.

  • Reduce the cost of groceries and essential household expenses.
  • Make child care more affordable for working families.
  • Promote economic policies focused on working people rather than corporations.

“An Economy That Works for Working People”

“Whether it’s the cost of groceries, the price of child care, or access to affordable, quality healthcare, I see the impacts every day.”

Republican Darline Graham

Supports fiscal protection and workforce development

Graham highlights her career helping individuals with disabilities find employment and gain financial independence. She emphasizes her management experience reforming state agencies to protect taxpayer dollars and reduce inefficiency.

  • Protect taxpayer dollars by turning around inefficient government agencies.
  • Promote job placement and vocational rehabilitation to help citizens support their families.
  • Oversee state agency operations with fiscal discipline, drawing on her experience managing a $90 million budget at the SC Commission for the Blind.

“Darline, who is fiercely protective of taxpayer dollars, helped turn around a struggling state agency known for inefficiency.”

“Darline has devoted her life to helping people find dignity through work – enabling them to contribute to society and support their families.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Democratic Annie Andrews

Supports universal healthcare access

Drawing on her nearly twenty years as a pediatrician, Andrews views healthcare as a fundamental right rather than a privilege. Her platform prioritizes making healthcare quality and affordable, with a special focus on pediatric health and youth mental health.

  • Treat healthcare as a fundamental right for all citizens.
  • Improve access to affordable, quality medical care for families.
  • Expand mental health resources and pediatric healthcare services.

“Healthcare is a Right, Not a Privilege”

“I’ve spent nearly twenty years caring for South Carolina’s children, from newborns with jaundice to teenagers struggling with mental health.”

Republican Darline Graham No documented position in our sources
03

Reproductive Freedom

high salience

Democratic Annie Andrews

Supports federal reproductive freedom protections

Andrews advocates for protecting reproductive freedom and trusting women to make their own healthcare choices. She frames reproductive rights as a core priority for South Carolina women and families.

  • Protect reproductive freedom nationwide.
  • Trust women and doctors to make personal healthcare decisions.

“Reproductive Freedom: Trust Women”

Republican Darline Graham No documented position in our sources
04

Gun Violence & Public Safety

medium salience

Democratic Annie Andrews

Supports gun violence prevention legislation

As a pediatrician, Andrews views gun violence as a primary safety threat to children and communities. She advocates for federal measures to end gun violence and protect public safety.

  • Enact legislative solutions to end gun violence.
  • Protect children and communities from firearm injuries.

“An End to Gun Violence”

Republican Darline Graham No documented position in our sources
05

Education & Child Care

medium salience

Democratic Annie Andrews

Supports public education and affordable child care

Andrews prioritizes strengthening public schools and reducing child care expenses for working parents. She treats education and early childhood care as essential investments for children's overall well-being.

  • Increase support for strong public schools.
  • Lower the cost of child care for working families.

“Strong Schools & Affordable Child Care”

Republican Darline Graham No documented position in our sources
06

Government Reform & Political Corruption

medium salience

Democratic Annie Andrews

Supports anti-corruption and campaign finance reform

Andrews pledges to fight political corruption in Washington by refusing PAC money for her campaign. She argues that elected leaders should answer to families rather than special interests.

  • Refuse contributions from corporate political action committees (PACs).
  • Pass reforms to curb corruption and special-interest influence in Washington.

“Powered by People. NOT PACs.”

“Fighting Political Corruption”

Republican Darline Graham No documented position in our sources
07

Immigration & Border Security

medium salience

Democratic Annie Andrews

Supports border security combined with humane treatment

Andrews advocates for immigration policies that pair effective border security measures with dignified and humane treatment for migrants.

  • Maintain strong border security.
  • Ensure immigration enforcement treats individuals with dignity.

“Immigration: Security with Dignity”

Republican Darline Graham No documented position in our sources
08

Technology & Child Safety

low salience

Democratic Annie Andrews

Supports regulating tech companies to protect children

Andrews supports holding major technology companies accountable to safeguard children from online risks and harms.

  • Implement regulatory standards on tech platforms to protect children online.

“Protecting Kids, Not Big Tech”

Republican Darline Graham No documented position in our sources
09

Foreign Policy & Defense

low salience

Democratic Annie Andrews

Opposes military involvement in endless foreign wars

Andrews advocates for ending U.S. participation in prolonged foreign conflicts and redirecting national focus toward domestic priorities.

  • End U.S. involvement in foreign military conflicts.

“No More Endless Wars”

Republican Darline Graham No documented position in our sources
10

Infrastructure & Transportation

low salience

Democratic Annie Andrews

Supports modernizing transportation infrastructure

Andrews supports federal investments to modernize transportation systems and infrastructure across South Carolina.

  • Invest in effective transportation and infrastructure networks.

“Transportation & Infrastructure that Works”

Republican Darline Graham No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 5

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

87.5% Republicans
13.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 87.5DEMOCRATS 13.5

Kalshi ↗

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: 1st place (1st round)

99.0% Darline Graham
1.0% Ralph Norman
1.0% Mark Sanford

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 3AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16GRAHAM 99.0FRY 1.0SANFORD 1.0NORMAN 1.0

Kalshi ↗

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: 2nd place (1st Round)

99.0% Ralph Norman
1.0% Trey Gowdy
1.0% Russell Fry

+2 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16NORMAN 99.0GOWDY 1.0GRAHAM 1.0FRY 1.0SANFORD 1.0

Kalshi ↗

South Carolina Senate winner?

87.0% Darline Graham
14.0% Annie Andrews
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 89.0GRAHAM 87.0ANDREWS 14.0

Kalshi ↗

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

99.0% Darline Graham
1.0% Mark Sanford
1.0% Pamela Evette

+8 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16GRAHAM 99.0BESSENT 1.0NORMAN 1.0SANFORD 1.0MCMASTER 1.0GOWDY 1.0FRY 1.0LYNCH 1.0HALEY 1.0EVETTE 1.0MACE 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.