Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Rhode Island Safe D

Rhode Island — U.S. Senate

The 2026 Rhode Island U.S. Senate general election features long-serving Democratic incumbent Jack Reed against Republican nominee Raymond McKay following primary elections on September 9, 2026. Reed, who has served in the Senate since 1997 and serves as Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is seeking re-election after securing 76.8% of the Democratic primary vote. McKay, a U.S. Army veteran and former municipal telecommunications manager, advanced unopposed from the Republican primary. Major political forecasters—including Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ—rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
96.0%
Republicans
3.9%
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
100.0%
Democrats
0.0%
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
100.0%
Republicans
0.0%
Kalshi ↗
Jack Reed
98.5%
Raymond McKay
2.3%
Kalshi ↗
Raymond McKay
99.8%
Allen Waters
0.1%
Kalshi ↗
Jack Reed
99.5%
Connor Burbridge
0.1%
UNH ↗ Aug 24 · Reed +20.0 · via RCP
Reed
51%
McKay
31%

All 3 polls → All markets →

01

Economy, Taxes, and Federal Spending

high salience

McKay demands sharp reductions in federal spending to combat inflation, while Reed has backed federal spending and investment bills like the Inflation Reduction Act.

Democratic Jack Reed

Supports targeted investment and tax relief

Reed has supported Democratic legislative efforts focused on economic recovery, infrastructure funding, and clean energy investments. He voted for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, and the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, while opposing the 2025 Republican reconciliation bill.

  • Voted against the 2025 Republican reconciliation act (H.R. 1) and budget resolution (H.Con.Res. 14).
  • Voted for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and American Rescue Plan Act of 2021.
  • Supported the No Tax on Tips Act (S. 129) and Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024.

Republican Raymond McKay

Curb runaway federal government spending

McKay prioritizes managing economic recovery from inflation and high living costs by curbing runaway federal spending. He signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, promising to oppose tax increases while focusing on small business growth and easing financial burdens on working families.

  • Curb runaway federal spending to alleviate inflation and pressure on taxpayers.
  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge.
  • Support small businesses and job creation to foster economic growth.

“We must curb runaway government spending which pushes economic pressure and inflation upon the everyday Rhode Island citizen.”

“I see the biggest issue for Rhode Island in the next two years as managing economic recovery from rising inflation and high living costs.”

02

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

McKay emphasizes strict law enforcement and border closure based on national sovereignty, while Reed supported the 2024 bipartisan border bill but opposed the Laken Riley Act.

Democratic Jack Reed

Supports border funding and targeted enforcement

Reed supported bipartisan border legislation aimed at enhancing capabilities at the U.S. border. However, he voted against mandatory detention measures under the Laken Riley Act and voted to dismiss the impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

  • Voted for the bipartisan Border Act of 2024 (S. 4361).
  • Voted against the Laken Riley Act (S. 5).
  • Voted to dismiss both impeachment articles against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

Republican Raymond McKay

Secure borders and enforce laws

McKay views illegal immigration as a major national crisis that requires strict border security and firm law enforcement. He emphasizes national sovereignty as a core principle for immigration policy.

  • Secure national borders and enforce existing immigration laws.
  • Treat border security as a fundamental requirement of national sovereignty.

“We must remember we are a sovereign nation and secure our borders and enforce our laws.”

“From record-breaking inflation rates to record-breaking illegal immigration and conflicts across the world, we need strong, dedicated leadership in the U.S. Senate.”

03

National Defense and Foreign Policy

medium salience

Reed relies on his decades-long leadership of the Senate Armed Services Committee to direct defense policy, while McKay draws on his 11 years of active-duty Army service to demand stronger military support.

Democratic Jack Reed

Strengthen defense readiness and foreign assistance

Reed serves as Ranking Member and former Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, authoring annual defense authorization bills. He supports maintaining strong international alliances and voted for emergency supplemental security funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

  • Serves as Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
  • Voted for National Defense Authorization Acts (NDAA) for Fiscal Years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2026.
  • Voted for emergency supplemental appropriations providing military and economic aid to Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine.

Republican Raymond McKay

Support military strength and global leadership

McKay leverages his 11-year service in the U.S. Army to advocate for strong national security and dedicated military leadership amidst international conflicts. He served in electronic maintenance for the Pershing Nuclear Missile System in West Germany and as a programmer.

  • Served 11 years in the U.S. Army, attaining the rank of Sergeant.
  • Emphasizes military preparedness and strong leadership to manage international conflicts.

“We need to support our veterans and military as we asked so much of them when they are so few.”

04

Energy and Environment

medium salience

McKay advocates for market-driven energy independence without government subsidies, whereas Reed has voted for massive federal climate and clean energy subsidies.

Democratic Jack Reed

Invest in clean energy infrastructure

Reed supports federal investments to address climate change and transition to clean energy. He voted for $369 billion in energy security and climate investments under the Inflation Reduction Act and earned the endorsement of Clean Water Action.

  • Endorsed by Clean Water Action in 2026.
  • Voted for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (H.R. 5376).
  • Voted for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (H.R. 3684).

Republican Raymond McKay

Unsubsidized market-based energy independence

McKay supports achieving energy independence through diverse energy sources that do not rely on federal government subsidies. He argues that market-sustained energy will lower consumer costs and reduce inflation.

  • Promote energy independence through diverse energy sources.
  • Require energy sectors to sustain themselves without government subsidies.

“We need to support energy independence through diverse means that are able to sustain themselves without government subsidies, which will lower the cost of goods and help push down inflation.”

05

Veterans Affairs

medium salience

Both candidates prioritize military veterans, with Reed pointing to his legislative record on the PACT Act and VA appropriations, and McKay highlighting his personal background as an Army veteran.

Democratic Jack Reed

Expand healthcare access for toxic exposure

Reed utilizes his position on the Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction and Veterans Affairs to fund veteran services. He voted for the landmark PACT Act of 2022 to expand health benefits for veterans exposed to burn pits and toxic substances.

  • Serves on the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies.
  • Voted for the Sergeant First Class Heath Robinson Honoring our PACT Act of 2022 (S. 3373).

Republican Raymond McKay

Expand support and resources for veterans

As an Army veteran, McKay emphasizes the nation's duty to support its military veterans. His campaign is endorsed by Veterans for America First – Georgia.

  • Highlight military veteran support as a core priority.
  • Endorsed by Veterans for America First – Georgia.

“We need to support our veterans and military as we asked so much of them when they are so few.”

06

Governance and Congressional Reform

medium salience

McKay advocates for constitutional term limits on federal lawmakers, while Reed leverages 29 years of Senate seniority to advance policy.

Democratic Jack Reed

Promote government transparency and public service

Reed emphasizes institutional legislative effectiveness and government transparency, voting by unanimous consent for the Epstein Files Transparency Act. He leverages nearly three decades of Senate seniority to hold key committee posts.

  • Has served 29 years in the U.S. Senate.
  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405).

Republican Raymond McKay

Enact term limits and curb overreach

McKay strongly advocates for constitutional term limits for members of Congress. He also advocates for greater financial transparency in government spending and defending parental rights over government intervention.

  • Enact term limits of two terms for U.S. Senators and four terms for U.S. Representatives.
  • Increase government financial transparency and accountability for national debt.
  • Protect personal freedoms and parental rights against government overreach.

“Term Limits should be imposed on both chambers of Congress as was done with the President. Two terms for the Senate, and four terms the House of Representatives.”

“The government serves the people, the people do not serve the government.”

07

Social Security and Senior Care

low salience

Both candidates support protecting senior safety nets, with McKay making general calls to strengthen Social Security and Medicare, and Reed voting for the Social Security Fairness Act.

Democratic Jack Reed

Protect and expand Social Security benefits

Reed voted for the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023, which reduced benefit offsets for individuals receiving state or local government pensions.

  • Voted for the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 (H.R. 82).

Republican Raymond McKay

Strengthen Social Security and Medicare

McKay calls for strengthening Social Security and Medicare to guarantee a viable retirement plan for senior citizens and individuals in need.

  • Strengthen Social Security and Medicare programs.
  • Ensure viable retirement plans for senior citizens.

“We need to strengthen Social Security and Medicare for our senior citizens and those in need.”

08

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Democratic Jack Reed

Codify reproductive and IVF rights

Reed advocates for federal legal protections for abortion access and fertility treatments. He voted in favor of the Women's Health Protection Act to prevent state-level abortion bans and supported the Right to IVF Act.

  • Voted for the Women's Health Protection Act of 2021 (H.R. 3755).
  • Voted for the Right to IVF Act (S. 4445).
Republican Raymond McKay No documented position in our sources
09

Gun Control and Public Safety

low salience

Democratic Jack Reed

Enact firearm safety regulations

Reed supports federal regulation of firearms and public safety measures. He voted for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act of 2022 and opposed a Congressional Review Act resolution seeking to block ATF stabilizing brace rules.

  • Voted for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (S. 2938).
  • Voted against H.J.Res. 44 to preserve ATF regulation of firearm stabilizing braces.
Republican Raymond McKay No documented position in our sources

Polls 3

updated Sep 16
204060MAYJUNJULAUGREED 51MCKAY 31

Source: RealClearPolling · Mckay vs. Reed ↗

Pollster Date Sample Result Spread
UNH Aug 24 750 LV Reed 51% / McKay 31% Reed +20.0
UNH Jun 23 664 LV Reed 52% / McKay 35% Reed +17.0
UNH Apr 20 559 LV Reed 52% / McKay 34% Reed +18.0

Prediction markets 6

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Rhode Island Senate Election Winner

96.0% Democrats
3.9% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 96.0REPUBLICANS 3.9

Polymarket ↗

Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 100.0DEMOCRATS 0.0

Polymarket ↗

Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 100.0REPUBLICANS 0.0

Kalshi ↗

Rhode Island Senate winner?

98.5% Jack Reed
2.3% Raymond McKay
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REED 98.5PARTY 98.2PARTY 2.7MCKAY 2.3

Kalshi ↗

Rhode Island Republican Senate nominee?

99.8% Raymond McKay
0.1% Allen Waters
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MCKAY 99.8WATERS 0.1

Kalshi ↗

Rhode Island Democratic Senate nominee?

99.5% Jack Reed
0.1% Connor Burbridge
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REED 99.5BURBRIDGE 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.