Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Oklahoma Safe R

Oklahoma — U.S. Senate

Democratic nominee N'Kiyla Thomas, a nurse, military spouse, and Chickasaw citizen, faces Republican nominee Kevin Hern, U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District, in the 2026 special election for Oklahoma's U.S. Senate seat vacated by Markwayne Mullin. The race hinges on stark contrasts between Thomas's progressive platform centered on healthcare expansion, labor protections, and special education funding, and Hern's conservative record of tax reduction, deregulation, border enforcement, and pro-life advocacy. Major nonpartisan race raters, including The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, consider the seat Solid/Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
95.5%
Democrats
3.7%
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
100.0%
Democrats
0.0%
Democrats
0.0%
Democrats
0.0%
Kalshi ↗
Kevin Hern
97.1%
N’Kiyla Thomas
3.4%
Kalshi ↗
N’Kiyla Thomas
99.8%
Jim Priest
0.8%

All markets →

01

Healthcare

high salience

Thomas advocates expanding the Affordable Care Act and federal healthcare services, whereas Hern supports repealing Obamacare in favor of free-market reforms.

Democratic N'Kiyla Thomas

Supports universal access and ACA expansion

Thomas views healthcare as a fundamental human right and advocates expanding the Affordable Care Act and rural health infrastructure. As a nurse and mother of a child with autism, she prioritizes strengthening emergency care, OBGYN access, Medicaid oversight, and expanding disability and autism services.

  • Protect and expand the Affordable Care Act
  • Expand rural healthcare, including OBGYN access, pediatric specialists, and emergency services
  • Enforce insurance coverage for autism care and reduce therapy waitlists

“Healthcare is a human right, not a privilege.”

Republican Kevin Hern

Supports free-market healthcare reform

Hern favors repealing Obamacare and replacing it with market-driven policies aimed at lowering costs and increasing patient options. Serving on the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Health, he advocates for healthcare decisions made between patients and doctors rather than federal agencies.

  • Supports repealing and replacing Obamacare with free-market solutions
  • Promotes self-insured business programs to increase market choices
  • Serves on the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Health

“The best quality and choice of care is given through a free-market driven healthcare system.”

02

Economy and Taxes

high salience

Thomas promotes government intervention to mandate higher wages, worker protections, and price controls, while Hern champions deregulation, reduced spending, and tax cuts.

Democratic N'Kiyla Thomas

Supports living wage and worker protections

Thomas focuses on working-class economic relief through a higher minimum wage, price-gouging protections, and affordable housing investments. She also supports innovative labor protections like a 32-hour workweek pilot program and credit renewal legislation.

  • Enact a living wage minimum wage and price gouging protections
  • Pilot a 32-hour, full-pay workweek program and establish a right to disconnect
  • Advocate for a Credit Renewal Act to reset credit every five years

“Economic Justice & Cost of Living: No one working full time should struggle to survive.”

Republican Kevin Hern

Supports spending cuts and tax simplification

Hern emphasizes tax simplification, deregulation, and federal spending cuts to spur job growth and economic confidence. As a business owner and member of the Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee, he voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1) and signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

  • Cosponsored H.J.Res.22 for a Balanced Budget Amendment
  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge
  • Voted for the reconciliation act H.R.1 providing tax and debt limit adjustments

“Kevin believes in a simplified tax system; that money earned should stay in the pockets of those who earned it.”

03

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

high salience

Thomas advocates codifying Roe v. Wade to protect abortion access federally, whereas Hern opposes abortion rights and supports federal prohibitions on abortion funding.

Democratic N'Kiyla Thomas

Supports federal abortion rights restoration

Thomas advocates for codifying federal abortion access and protecting patients and healthcare providers from prosecution. She emphasizes emergency reproductive care and targeted efforts to reduce Black maternal mortality.

  • Restore Roe v. Wade at the federal level
  • Protect women from prosecution for miscarriages or pregnancy complications
  • Guarantee emergency reproductive care and address Black maternal mortality

“Decisions about pregnancy belong to patients, not politicians.”

Republican Kevin Hern

Opposes abortion and supports pro-life legislation

Hern holds a strict pro-life stance, maintaining that human life begins at conception. In Congress, he has co-sponsored multiple legislative measures to restrict abortion access and eliminate federal abortion funding.

  • Cosponsored H.R.369, H.R.20, H.R.616, and H.R.962 to protect human life and restrict funding
  • Pledges leadership in Washington on pro-life policy

“Kevin believes that all life is sacred and begins at conception, and will lead the way in Washington on pro-life issues and give voice to the voiceless.”

04

Border Security and Immigration

medium salience

Hern supports strict border wall funding and deportation measures for undocumented immigrants, while Thomas advocates for rights-based policies focused on humanitarian compassion.

Democratic N'Kiyla Thomas

Supports compassionate, rights-based policy

Thomas opposes policies that target or criminalize vulnerable communities, advocating that governance and civil protections be rooted in human dignity and compassion rather than harsh enforcement.

  • Supports civil rights and humanitarian protections across communities
  • Emphasizes policy grounded in compassion and accountability

“My political lens is shaped by lived experience, not privilege—and I believe policy should be grounded in compassion, accountability, and a deep understanding of real people’s struggles.”

Republican Kevin Hern

Supports wall funding and enforcement

Hern supports strict border enforcement, completing the southern border wall, and defunding sanctuary campuses. In Congress, he voted for the Laken Riley Act and DUI deportation legislation to detain and remove undocumented immigrants who commit crimes.

  • Voted for H.R.695 to fund southern border wall construction
  • Cosponsored H.R.768 to defund sanctuary campuses
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S.5) and DUI deportation legislation (H.R.875)

“He believes we must enforce our existing laws, secure our borders, and ensure the American people that we are keeping their families safe from dangerous criminals.”

05

Guns and Second Amendment

medium salience

Thomas demands federal legislative action to prevent gun violence, while Hern opposes gun control restrictions and supports national concealed carry reciprocity.

Democratic N'Kiyla Thomas

Supports legislative action on gun violence

Thomas demands action to curb mass shootings, criticizing politicians for offering only thoughts and prayers. She supports expanding safety protections and survivor resources through federal legislation.

  • Calls for legislative action to prevent mass shootings
  • Supports expanding the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA)
  • Mandates trauma-informed training for law enforcement and first responders

“We cannot keep offering thoughts and prayers without action. We cannot normalize this.”

Republican Kevin Hern

Supports concealed carry and firearm rights

Hern opposes federal gun control measures and advocates for national concealed carry reciprocity. He has consistently voted against restrictions on firearm sales, including universal background checks.

  • Cosponsored H.R.38 for concealed carry reciprocity across state lines
  • Voted against firearm restriction bills H.R.8 and H.R.1112
  • Opposes federal overreach on gun ownership rights

“Kevin believes in the Second Amendment, that every American has the right to own, carry and use a firearm.”

06

Education

medium salience

Thomas focuses on expanding federal resources for special education, meals, and teacher pay, whereas Hern prioritizes defunding Confucius Classrooms and restricting federal overreach.

Democratic N'Kiyla Thomas

Supports special education and teacher pay

Thomas supports fully funding public schools, guaranteeing universal school meals, and increasing teacher compensation. She focuses on special education, autism services, and keeping partisan politics out of the classroom.

  • Fully fund special education and strengthen IEP enforcement
  • Guarantee free breakfast and lunch for all students
  • Ensure competitive teacher pay and reduce class sizes

“Education: should prepare children for life, not politics.”

Republican Kevin Hern

Opposes foreign influence in schools

Hern focuses on protecting educational institutions from foreign influence and federal mandates. He introduced the PROTECT Our Kids Act to deny Department of Education funding to schools hosting Confucius Classrooms and voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act.

  • Introduced the PROTECT Our Kids Act regarding Confucius Classrooms
  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act (H.R.28)

“Introduced the Promoting Responsible Oversight to Eliminate Communist Teachings for Our Kids (PROTECT Our Kids) Act, legislation to prohibit federal funding through the Department of Education for any school which continues to host a Confucius Classroom.”

07

Government Reform and Campaign Finance

medium salience

Thomas refuses corporate PAC money and promotes public election funding, while Hern focuses on state election control and voted for citizenship proof voter requirements.

Democratic N'Kiyla Thomas

Supports term limits and rejecting corporate PACs

Thomas rejects all corporate PAC and lobbyist contributions to ensure independence from special interests. She advocates for congressional term limits, public funding of elections, and government transparency.

  • Rejects corporate PAC money and AIPAC donations
  • Supports strong, enforceable term limits for the U.S. House and Senate
  • Advocates transparent budgeting and government oversight

“I strongly believe that term limits are essential for ensuring that our government remains accountable and responsive to the people.”

Republican Kevin Hern

Supports term limits pledge and election integrity

Hern signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge and supports state-controlled election laws. In Congress, he voted for the SAVE Act to mandate documentary proof of citizenship for voting and opposed federal election legislation like H.R.1.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge
  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R.22) requiring proof of citizenship to vote
  • Opposed H.R.1 to protect state election control

“Opposed H.R.1 to limit federal overreach, protect free speech, and state election control; cosponsored H.R.949.”

08

Military and Veterans

low salience

Thomas emphasizes reform of military family allowances and spouse employment protections, whereas Hern focuses on legislative recognition and healthcare expansions for specific veteran cohorts.

Democratic N'Kiyla Thomas

Supports military family compensation and VA care

As a military spouse, Thomas prioritizes improving military pay, deployment childcare, and military spouse employment protections. She also advocates for fixing military housing allowance calculations and expanding VA healthcare access.

  • Fix inaccurate BAH and BAS calculations for military families
  • Protect military spouse employment and expand deployment childcare
  • Improve staffing and access in veteran healthcare systems

“Military Veterans & Families: Service should never mean sacrifice without support.”

Republican Kevin Hern

Supports veterans care and recognition legislation

Hern highlights his upbringing on an Air Force base and supports legislative recognition for military veterans. In Congress, he cosponsored measures to expand healthcare access and benefits for Blue Water Navy and WWII Merchant Mariners.

  • Cosponsored H.R.299 and H.R.550 for Blue Water Navy and WWII Merchant Mariners veterans
  • Voted for Military Construction and Veterans Affairs funding legislation

“Born on an Air Force Base, Kevin Hern gained an early appreciation for the sacrifices that military families make.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Oklahoma Senate Election Winner

95.5% Republicans
3.7% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 95.5DEMOCRATS 3.7

Polymarket ↗

Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 100.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0

Kalshi ↗

Oklahoma Senate winner?

97.1% Kevin Hern
3.4% N’Kiyla Thomas
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16HERN 97.1PARTY 5.8THOMAS 3.4

Kalshi ↗

Oklahoma Democratic Senate nominee?

99.8% N’Kiyla Thomas
0.8% Jim Priest
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16THOMAS 99.8PRIEST 0.8GREEN 0.1LAVANN 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.