Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Ohio Toss-up

Ohio Senate special election

The 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election features appointed Republican incumbent Jon Husted against former three-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown to fill the remaining two years of J.D. Vance's term. The race hinges on economic messaging and candidate familiarity, with both campaigns showing financial parity after raising over $14 million each by mid-2026.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
72.5%
Republicans
27.5%
Kalshi ↗
Sherrod Brown
71.0%
Jon Husted
30.0%

All markets →

01

Economy, Taxes, and Cost of Living

high salience

Brown opposes corporate tax breaks and protective tariffs that increase consumer prices, whereas Husted advocates broad federal tax cuts and deregulation to drive economic growth.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Opposes corporate tax breaks and tariffs

Brown campaigns against corporate tax cuts and tariffs that he argues drive up prices for middle-class families and small businesses. He emphasizes his career record of fighting for union workers, protecting pensions, and expanding Social Security benefits.

  • Criticized federal tax cuts given to corporations and billionaires at the expense of workers.
  • Attacked reckless tariffs for driving up consumer prices and threatening small businesses.
  • Led efforts to restore hard-earned pensions for over 100,000 Ohioans.

“With all the craziness coming out of Washington, including giving massive tax breaks to corporations and billionaires at the expense of hardworking Ohioans, Sherrod knows he has the ability to do something about it, and that’s why he’s running for Senate.”

“Their reckless tariffs and economic chaos are increasing prices and threatening the survival of small businesses all across our state.”

Republican Jon Husted

Supports tax cuts and deregulation

Husted campaigns on his record as Ohio House Speaker and Lieutenant Governor, where he delivered major state tax cuts and economic development projects. In the U.S. Senate, he supported conservative reconciliation legislation and tax relief on tips and overtime.

  • Voted Yea on H.R.1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) reconciliation legislation.
  • Supported the No Tax on Tips Act (S.129) to create tax deductions for tipped income.
  • Promoted his state record delivering the largest tax cut in Ohio history.

“As speaker of the Ohio House, Jon delivered a conservative, balanced budget with the largest tax cut in Ohio history to help working families keep more of their money. As Lieutenant Governor, Jon led efforts to attract the biggest economic projects in state history, creating thousands of good-paying jobs across Ohio.”

“delivering the largest tax cut in American history for middle class families, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime”

02

Healthcare and Prescription Drug Costs

high salience

Brown advocates federal price caps on prescription drugs and defended Medicaid expansion, while Husted voted against expanding federal health insurance tax credits and Medicaid funding.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Supports capping drug costs and ACA

Brown focuses heavily on lowering prescription drug costs for seniors, highlighting his work capping insulin prices under Medicare. He strongly defends the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion against Republican rollbacks.

  • Successfully fought to cap insulin costs for seniors on Medicare.
  • Defended Medicaid expansion covering roughly 490,000 Ohioans.
  • Criticized opponents for raising prescription prices and threatening healthcare coverage.

“When the drug companies jacked up prices, Brown successfully fought to cap the cost of insulin and reduce the price of other prescription drugs for Ohio seniors.”

“Instead of lowering the cost of health care, they're raising drug prices on seniors and kicking 490,000 hardworking Ohioans off their coverage.”

Republican Jon Husted

Opposes expanded federal health subsidies

Husted voted against Senate legislation expanding healthcare tax credits and Medicaid funding while backing standard government continuing appropriations. He serves on the Senate HELP Committee oversight subcommittees.

  • Voted Nay on S.2882, which would have permanently extended expanded health insurance premium tax credits and increased Medicaid funding.
  • Voted Yea on H.R.5371 to maintain baseline funding for federal health programs.
03

Veterans Affairs

medium salience

Brown highlights his leadership on the PACT Act for burn-pit exposed veterans, while Husted supports standard federal defense and veterans construction appropriations.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Supports expanded healthcare for veterans

Brown emphasizes his bipartisan legislative work securing comprehensive VA medical care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits. He positions veteran care as a primary moral obligation.

  • Partnered across party lines to pass legislation expanding VA health services for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits.

“When millions of veterans returning from war who were exposed to highly toxic burn pits were being turned away by the VA as they suffered from severe illnesses like cancer and lung disease, Sherrod worked with Republicans to get them the care they deserved.”

Republican Jon Husted

Supports funding for veterans programs

Husted supported federal appropriations bills funding defense and Veterans Affairs construction projects during his initial tenure in the Senate.

  • Voted Yea on S.2296, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026.
  • Voted Yea on H.R.5371 appropriating funding for Military Construction and Veterans Affairs.
04

Workforce Development and Education

medium salience

Brown focuses on protecting organized labor and public worker pensions, whereas Husted emphasizes expanding non-degree career technical education.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Supports labor unions and public workers

Brown builds his platform around the dignity of work, securing key union endorsements and enacting protections for public service pensions. He emphasizes protecting Social Security for retired public workers.

  • Endorsed by major trade unions including the Ohio AFL-CIO, IBEW, and Actors' Equity Association.
  • Passed legislation ensuring over 2 million former public servants received full Social Security payments.

“And because of Sherrod Brown, over 2 million former teachers, bus drivers, police officers, firefighters, and other workers are now receiving their full Social Security payments that previously were withheld by the federal government.”

Republican Jon Husted

Promotes career tech and job training

Husted touts his record as Lieutenant Governor establishing Ohio as a leader in career tech education. He emphasizes preparing high school students directly for trade careers without college debt.

  • Championed career technical education initiatives to graduate students career-ready without college debt.
  • Endorsed by trade labor groups including Operating Engineers Local 18 and Local 66.

“Thanks to Jon's leadership, Ohio is a national leader in career tech education, helping high school students graduate career-ready without the burden of college debt.”

05

Border Security and Immigration

medium salience

Husted explicitly campaigns on securing the southern border and increasing border patrol agents, whereas Brown has no detailed 2026 platform position documented in the sources.

Democratic Sherrod Brown No documented position in our sources

Republican Jon Husted

Supports stricter border security enforcement

Husted prioritizes border security as part of his conservative platform, supporting increased law enforcement resources and border personnel. He earned the endorsement of the National Border Patrol Council.

  • Advocates for securing the U.S. border and expanding the number of border patrol agents.
  • Endorsed by the National Border Patrol Council.

“securing our border and adding more agents”

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

Ohio Senate Election Winner

72.5% Democrats
27.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 72.5REPUBLICANS 27.5

Kalshi ↗

Ohio Senate winner?

71.0% Sherrod Brown
30.0% Jon Husted
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31BROWN 71.0HUSTED 30.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.