Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Ohio Toss-up

Ohio — U.S. Senate (special)

The 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election features incumbent Republican Jon Husted, appointed in January 2025 to fill the seat vacated by Vice President J.D. Vance, against former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024. The winner will serve the remaining two years of Vance's original six-year term. Major election raters view the matchup as highly competitive, with Cook Political Report rating it a Toss-up and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball changing its rating to Toss-up in June 2026, while Inside Elections rates it Tilt Republican. The race hinges on working-class economic appeals, tax policy, trade and manufacturing records, healthcare protections, and border security.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
56.5%
Republicans
43.5%
Kalshi ↗
Sherrod Brown
55.0%
Jon Husted
46.0%

All markets →

01

Economy, Taxes, and Cost of Living

high salience

Husted highlights passing major tax cuts and supporting federal tax relief on tips and overtime, whereas Brown argues conservative tax policies enrich corporations and billionaires at the expense of middle-class families.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Opposes corporate tax breaks and supports middle-class relief

Brown centers his campaign on affordability and opposing tax cuts for corporations, arguing that conservative policies drive up costs for working families. He advocates banning congressional stock trading and fighting corporate price-gouging.

  • Proposes a ban on congressional stock trading.
  • Criticizes corporate tax cuts and tariffs for increasing prices for middle-class families.
  • Focuses campaign messaging on economic fairness and dignity of work.

“With all the craziness coming out of Washington, including giving massive tax breaks to corporations and billionaires at the expense of hardworking Ohioans, Sherrod knows he has the ability to do something about it, and that’s why he’s running for Senate.”

“Their reckless tariffs and economic chaos are increasing prices and threatening the survival of small businesses all across our state.”

Republican Jon Husted

Supports conservative tax cuts and deregulation

Husted campaigns on his legislative record of delivering state tax cuts and promoting conservative economic policies. In the U.S. Senate, he voted for the 2025 reconciliation bill (H.R. 1) and co-sponsored proposals to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime.

  • Voted Yea on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1) reconciliation bill in 2025.
  • Agreed to the No Tax on Tips Act (S. 129) by unanimous consent.
  • Advocates for tax cuts for middle-class families and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime.

“As speaker of the Ohio House, Jon delivered a conservative, balanced budget with the largest tax cut in Ohio history to help working families keep more of their money.”

“delivering the largest tax cut in American history for middle class families, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime”

02

Trade, Manufacturing, and Labor

high salience

Brown emphasizes his lifelong opposition to international free-trade agreements to protect manufacturing workers, while Husted emphasizes state-level economic development deals and vocational career technology.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Opposes bad trade deals and champions worker dignity

Brown bases his platform on the dignity of work, highlighting his lifelong opposition to free-trade agreements that shipped manufacturing jobs overseas. He campaigns on supporting organized labor and securing investments in domestic manufacturing.

  • Consistently voted against free-trade agreements including NAFTA, TPP, and CAFTA.
  • Authored the SECTORS Act and legislated to establish manufacturing innovation hubs in Ohio.
  • Endorsed by major labor organizations including the Ohio AFL-CIO and IBEW.

“Sherrod saw firsthand how corporations lobbied for tax breaks and bad trade agreements that shipped Ohio jobs overseas. That’s why he’s always opposed unfair trade deals that hurt Ohio workers.”

Republican Jon Husted

Promotes job creation and career technical education

Husted highlights his record as Lieutenant Governor in attracting major economic development projects to Ohio and promoting career technical education. He has earned endorsements from several trade unions, including building trades and operating engineers.

  • Led economic development efforts as Lieutenant Governor to attract major industrial projects to Ohio.
  • Promoted career tech education to help high school students graduate career-ready without college debt.
  • Endorsed by trade unions including Local 18 and Local 66 of the International Union of Operating Engineers.

“As Lieutenant Governor, Jon led efforts to attract the biggest economic projects in state history, creating thousands of good-paying jobs across Ohio.”

03

Healthcare and Prescription Drugs

high salience

Brown strongly defends the Affordable Care Act and capping prescription drug costs, whereas Husted voted against expanding health insurance tax credits and opposed state abortion access amendments.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Supports Affordable Care Act and capping drug prices

Brown champions the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion, which extended coverage to hundreds of thousands of Ohioans. He highlights passing caps on insulin costs for seniors and empowering Medicare to negotiate prescription prices.

  • Helped pass the Affordable Care Act and defended Medicaid expansion in Ohio.
  • Passed legislation capping insulin costs at $35 a month for seniors and lowering prescription drug prices.
  • Opposes attempts to repeal the ACA or cut funding for the Children's Health Insurance Program.

“When the drug companies jacked up prices, Brown successfully fought to cap the cost of insulin and reduce the price of other prescription drugs for Ohio seniors.”

“Instead of repealing the Affordable Care Act, we should be working to improve and expand it so that every Ohioan has access to quality, affordable healthcare.”

Republican Jon Husted

Voted against expanding federal healthcare subsidies

In the Senate, Husted voted against a Democratic-led resolution that would have permanently extended expanded health insurance premium tax credits and increased Medicaid funding. As Lieutenant Governor, he opposed state ballot measures expanding reproductive rights.

  • Voted Nay on S. 2882, which would have permanently extended expanded health insurance premium tax credits.
  • Opposed the 2023 Ohio constitutional amendment establishing a right to reproductive freedom.
  • Assigned to the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions.

“Ohio Issue 1, Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative (2023)... Position: Oppose”

04

Border Security and Opioids

medium salience

Husted prioritizes physical border security and hiring more border agents, while Brown highlights his bipartisan legislation equipping law enforcement with fentanyl detection technology.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Supports law enforcement tools to intercept illegal drugs

Brown focuses on combatting the opioid crisis by providing law enforcement with high-tech detection equipment. He authored the INTERDICT Act, signed into law under President Trump, to help border agents intercept illicit synthetic opioids.

  • Authored the bipartisan INTERDICT Act providing border agents with fentanyl detection screening devices.
  • Co-sponsored the POWER Act to supply local law enforcement officers with drug detection equipment.
  • Secured federal funding for COPS hiring grants and human trafficking enforcement.

“His bipartisan INTERDICT Act, which was signed into law by President Trump, gives law enforcement the tools to intercept opioids and block them from entering our country.”

Republican Jon Husted

Supports border enforcement and border wall funding

Husted focuses heavily on border security in his Senate platform, advocating for additional border patrol agents and border wall construction to stop illegal immigration and fentanyl flow. He earned the endorsement of the National Border Patrol Council.

  • Pledges to secure the southern border and hire additional Border Patrol agents.
  • Endorsed by the National Border Patrol Council.
  • Supported budget resolutions allocating funding for border infrastructure.

“securing our border and adding more agents”

05

Senior Citizens, Pensions, and Social Security

medium salience

Brown highlights his legislative leadership in securing multiemployer pensions and full Social Security payouts for public workers, whereas Husted focuses on tax relief measures and serving on the Senate Aging Committee.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Protects pensions and full Social Security benefits

Brown led efforts in Congress to pass the Butch Lewis Act, securing multiemployer pension funds for over 100,000 Ohio workers and retirees. He also passed legislation eliminating federal benefit reductions for more than 2 million public service workers.

  • Led passage of the Butch Lewis Act to restore multiemployer pension plans for over 100,000 Ohioans.
  • Eliminated Windfall Elimination Provision and Government Pension Offset penalties for 2 million public employees.
  • Opposes privatization of Social Security or raising the retirement age.

“When Wall Street banks gambled away workers’ hard-earned pensions, Sherrod led the charge to make sure over 100,000 Ohioans got the retirement they were owed.”

“over 2 million former teachers, bus drivers, police officers, firefighters, and other workers are now receiving their full Social Security payments”

Republican Jon Husted

Supports tax exemptions on tips and retirement incentives

Husted supports protecting senior citizens' retirement income through broader middle-class tax relief and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime. He serves on the Senate Special Committee on Aging.

  • Assigned to the U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging for the 119th Congress.
  • Agreed to unanimous consent passage of the No Tax on Tips Act (S. 129).
  • Supports maintaining tax incentives for middle-class retirement savings.

“eliminating taxes on tips and overtime”

06

Veterans and Military Affairs

medium salience

Brown emphasizes his authorship of landmark legislation like the PACT Act expanding veterans' VA health coverage, while Husted's record reflects voting for national defense and veterans funding bills.

Democratic Sherrod Brown

Expands healthcare and education benefits for toxic-exposed veterans

Brown worked across party lines to pass the PACT Act, providing healthcare coverage for veterans suffering from illnesses linked to toxic burn pits. He also authored legislation expanding GI Bill benefits and job placement services for veterans.

  • Co-authored and passed the PACT Act to expand VA healthcare for toxic burn pit-exposed veterans.
  • Permanently expanded GI Bill educational benefits and restored benefits for students defrauded by for-profit colleges.
  • Passed the Female Veterans Suicide Prevention Act and Clay Hunt SAV Act.

“When millions of veterans returning from war who were exposed to highly toxic burn pits were being turned away by the VA... Sherrod worked with Republicans to get them the care they deserved.”

Republican Jon Husted

Supports defense funding and veterans appropriations

In the U.S. Senate, Husted voted in favor of the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act and extended funding for Military Construction and Veterans Affairs programs.

  • Voted Yea on the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 (S. 2296).
  • Voted Yea on the Continuing Appropriations Act for Military Construction and Veterans Affairs (H.R. 5371).

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Ohio Senate Election Winner

56.5% Democrats
43.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 56.5REPUBLICANS 43.5

Kalshi ↗

Ohio Senate winner?

55.0% Sherrod Brown
46.0% Jon Husted
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16BROWN 55.0HUSTED 46.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.