Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · New Hampshire Toss-up

New Hampshire — U.S. Senate

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire features Democratic nominee U.S. Representative Chris Pappas and Republican nominee former U.S. Senator John Sununu competing for the open seat created by retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen. The matchup hinges on voters' choices between Pappas's focus on middle-class affordability, government ethics reform, healthcare protection, and environmental policy, versus Sununu's emphasis on market competition, tax reduction, deregulation, and domestic energy production. Major nonpartisan race forecasters rate the contest Lean Democratic (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball), Likely Democratic (Decision Desk HQ), and Toss-up (Inside Elections).

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
82.0%
Republicans
18.5%
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
100.0%
Democrats
0.0%
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
100.0%
Republicans
0.0%
Republicans
0.0%
Republicans
0.0%
Kalshi ↗
Chris Pappas
82.0%
John E. Sununu
19.0%
Kalshi ↗
John E. Sununu
99.7%
Chris Sununu
0.1%
Dan Innis
0.1%
Scott Brown
0.1%
Kalshi ↗
Chris Pappas
99.9%
Jared Sullivan
0.1%
Annie Kuster
0.1%
Karishma Manzur
0.1%
Maggie Goodlander
0.1%
Stefany Shaheen
0.1%
UNH ↗ Aug 24 · Sununu +2.0 · via RCP
Sununu
45%
Pappas
43%

All 10 polls → All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Pappas advocates direct federal intervention including tax credits, drug price caps, and tariff protection to lower household costs, whereas Sununu promotes free-market competition, tax cuts, deregulation, and expanded domestic energy production.

Democratic Chris Pappas

Lowers middle-class costs and stops tariffs

Pappas prioritizes lowering costs for Granite State families on groceries, utilities, housing, healthcare, and childcare. He advocates restoring the expanded Child Tax Credit, expanding Medicare drug price negotiations, fighting broad tariffs, and offering tax cuts for first-time home buyers.

  • Fights to restore the expanded Child Tax Credit and ACA enhanced premium tax credits.
  • Opposes broad tariffs and introduced legislation to reimburse small businesses for tariff costs.
  • Passed legislation enabling Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices and capping insulin at $35.
  • Passed cost-of-living increases for veterans and military families.

“Chris is fighting to lower costs for families and small businesses on everything from utilities to groceries and to make high-quality child care, health care, and housing more affordable and within reach for people across New Hampshire.”

“He is also leading the effort to protect Granite Staters from the disastrous Trump tariffs that have created record-high prices and reimburse small businesses for the tens of thousands of dollars they’ve been forced to pay.”

Republican John Sununu

Promotes market competition and tax cuts

Sununu argues that economic affordability is best achieved by curbing federal spending, opposing tax hikes, and increasing supply through deregulation and energy production. He proposes waiving building material tariffs, expanding Health Savings Accounts, and boosting energy production to drive down living expenses.

  • Opposes federal tax hikes and government waste that fuel inflation.
  • Promotes healthcare competition, expanded Health Savings Accounts, and price transparency.
  • Advocates waiving tariffs on building materials and deregulating workforce housing construction.
  • Calls for expanded domestic energy production, transmission infrastructure, and pipeline capacity.

“Right now, New Hampshire needs someone who understands the state and who is focused on the right things: the economy, jobs, affordability, housing, energy and healthcare.”

“On health care, affordability comes from competition, expanding health savings accounts and increasing price transparency.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Pappas supports federal drug price caps, Medicaid expansion, and ACA subsidy extensions, while Sununu favors market competition, expanded Health Savings Accounts, and provider price transparency.

Democratic Chris Pappas

Supports expanding ACA and Medicare drug negotiations

Pappas believes healthcare is a basic right and champions expanding access while lowering out-of-pocket costs. He supported expanding Medicaid in New Hampshire, led efforts to allow Medicare prescription drug price negotiations, and fights to protect the Affordable Care Act.

  • Voted on the Executive Council to expand Medicaid to over 50,000 Granite Staters.
  • Supported capping insulin at $35 and out-of-pocket prescription costs for seniors under Medicare.
  • Fights to restore ACA enhanced premium tax credits and expand rural healthcare access.
  • Opposes Republican budget proposals cutting Medicare or Medicaid.

“Chris believes that health care for all Granite Staters should be a right, not a privilege.”

“In Congress Chris is committed to protecting and strengthening the Affordable Care Act, expanding rural health care access, and strengthening our nursing and health care workforce.”

Republican John Sununu

Advocates market competition and Health Savings Accounts

Sununu advocates for consumer-driven healthcare reforms that increase choices and reduce costs through competition. He emphasizes expanding Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and enforcing price transparency across healthcare providers.

  • Supports expanding Health Savings Accounts to give consumers control over healthcare spending.
  • Promotes price transparency to enable competitive pricing among healthcare providers.
  • Opposes top-down federal healthcare mandates.

“On health care, affordability comes from competition, expanding health savings accounts and increasing price transparency.”

03

Energy and environment

high salience

Pappas promotes clean energy transition funding, climate resilience, and strict PFAS chemical regulations, whereas Sununu focuses on expanding domestic oil and gas production, pipelines, and transmission capacity.

Democratic Chris Pappas

Supports clean energy, climate action, and PFAS regulation

Pappas supports an all-of-the-above energy strategy paired with major investments in clean energy, home weatherization, and climate resilience. He authored legislation to address PFAS 'forever chemical' contamination, clean up lead drinking pipes, and hold corporate polluters accountable.

  • Supported the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and Great American Outdoors Act.
  • Authored legislation to restrict PFAS contamination and hold corporate polluters financially accountable.
  • Secured federal funding for clean energy, EV charging infrastructure, and weatherization.

“Chris supports an all-of-the-above energy strategy to meet the needs of Granite Staters, lower costs, and ensure America can become truly energy independent.”

“He has led the charge in Congress to address PFAS contamination and wrote legislation to protect communities from these “forever chemicals,” take on corporate polluters, and establish stronger national safety standards.”

Republican John Sununu

Supports expanding domestic oil, gas, and pipelines

Sununu prioritizes boosting domestic energy supply to lower utility and heating expenses. He advocates expanding fossil fuel production, pipeline capacity, and transmission infrastructure, alongside past legislative work protecting the White Mountain National Forest.

  • Calls for increased domestic energy production to lower home heating and electric costs.
  • Advocates expanding pipeline capacity and electrical transmission infrastructure.
  • Highlights past legislative achievements protecting the White Mountain National Forest.

“On energy, we need more production, more transmission infrastructure and more pipeline capacity.”

“He voted for energy taxes as families struggled with heating costs.”

04

Housing

medium salience

Pappas supports homebuyer tax cuts and federal affordable housing development financing, while Sununu favors waiving building material tariffs and reducing workforce housing regulations.

Democratic Chris Pappas

Supports buyer tax credits and affordable housing funding

Pappas treats housing affordability as an urgent crisis, pointing to New Hampshire's projected 90,000-unit shortfall. He supports federal tax credits for first-time buyers, cutting red tape for local construction, and funding affordable housing developments.

  • Advocates tax cuts for first-time home buyers and restoring the expanded Child Tax Credit for housing expenses.
  • Supports federal financing and development grants for affordable housing units.
  • Pushes to streamline local bureaucracy to incentivize residential construction.

“Chris is working to make homeownership a reality for more Granite Staters by cutting red tape for communities to build more homes, providing tax cuts to help first-time home buyers, and supporting the financing and development of affordable housing.”

Republican John Sununu

Supports waiving building tariffs and workforce housing deregulation

Sununu focuses on supply-side deregulatory solutions to increase housing supply and cut costs. He advocates waiving federal tariffs on construction materials, reducing local regulatory burdens on workforce housing, and passing permitting reforms.

  • Proposes waiving federal tariffs on building materials to lower overall construction expenses.
  • Recommends reducing regulations affecting workforce housing development.
  • Supports federal permitting reform to accelerate project approvals.

“On housing, we should waive tariffs on building materials, reduce regulations affecting workforce housing and pursue permitting reform.”

05

Foreign policy and national security

medium salience

Pappas advocates for active international democratic alliance building and foreign economic/security aid, whereas Sununu emphasizes strictly bound military objectives focused on nuclear deterrence and commercial shipping choke points.

Democratic Chris Pappas

Supports global alliances, aid to Ukraine/Israel, and CHIPS Act

Pappas advocates for active U.S. global leadership to counter authoritarian regimes in Russia, Iran, and China. He supported assistance to Ukraine, security aid for Israel alongside Gaza humanitarian aid, a two-state solution, and the CHIPS Act to outcompete China.

  • Supported aid to Ukraine and crippling economic sanctions against Russia.
  • Supported security aid for Israel, $9 billion in humanitarian aid to Gaza, and a two-state solution.
  • Voted for the CHIPS and Science Act to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing against China.
  • Banning foreign purchases of critical U.S. infrastructure.

“In Congress Chris has worked to safeguard American interests and values across the globe, support our allies, and protect democracy from the rising influence of authoritarian regimes like Russia, Iran, and China.”

“Chris supports a two-state solution that provides full security for Israel and safety and self-determination for the Palestinian people.”

Republican John Sununu

Supports targeted military deterrence and War Powers limits

Sununu argues U.S. military action must be strictly bound to explicit national security objectives. Regarding Iran, he supports degrading missile capabilities, preventing nuclear proliferation, securing a permanent ceasefire, and keeping open the Strait of Hormuz under War Powers limits.

  • Ties foreign military actions strictly to defined national security goals, such as degrading Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities.
  • Advocates establishing permanent ceasefires and guaranteeing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Upholds the War Powers Act structure balancing executive response with congressional oversight.

“Anytime American military force is used, it should be tied to very specific national security objectives.”

“In Iran, that means preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, degrading its ballistic missile capability and preventing support for terrorism throughout the region.”

06

Government ethics and anti-corruption

medium salience

Pappas champions statutory bans on stock trading, prediction market insider trading, and revolving-door lobbying while attacking Sununu's corporate record, whereas Sununu emphasizes curbing federal waste and legislative dysfunction.

Democratic Chris Pappas

Supports congressional stock trading ban and revolving door limits

Pappas makes anti-corruption reform a major campaign focus, refusing corporate PAC money and sponsoring bans on congressional stock trading and prediction market insider trading. He explicitly criticizes Sununu for profiting as a corporate lobbyist after leaving office.

  • Refuses corporate PAC money and supports the DISCLOSE Act to eliminate dark money.
  • Sponsors bans on stock trading and political prediction market trading by members of Congress and executive branch officials.
  • Backed the CLEAN Act, No Getting Rich in Congress Act, and lifetime lobbying bans on former officials representing foreign governments.

“Chris Pappas knows the system is rigged against people and in favor of corporate special interests, dark money groups, and entrenched politicians.”

“Pappas broke with Democratic House leadership to support a ban on congressional stock trading.”

Republican John Sununu

Criticizes congressional dysfunction and federal waste

Sununu highlights Congress as fundamentally dysfunctional and disconnected from voter priorities. He points to his record of fighting government waste and protecting citizen privacy while promising a practical New Hampshire approach to governance.

  • Highlights past congressional work targeting federal government waste and defending consumer privacy.
  • Criticizes congressional dysfunction and failure to focus on core economic issues.

“Congress is dysfunctional. I think anybody looking at Washington right now sees a system that is not focused on the right priorities.”

“During his time representing New Hampshire in Washington, John took on government waste, defended the rights and privacy of ordinary Americans, opposed tax hikes, and protected our seniors.”

07

LGBTQ+ and social issues

medium salience

Pappas pushes for broad federal LGBTQ+ anti-discrimination laws and marriage equality codification, while Sununu highlights opposition to transgender girls competing in female sports divisions.

Democratic Chris Pappas

Supports full LGBTQ+ equality and Respect for Marriage Act

As the first openly gay member of Congress from New Hampshire and Co-Chair of the Equality Caucus, Pappas champions federal non-discrimination protections across employment, housing, and public facilities. He co-sponsored the Respect for Marriage Act and advocates for LGBTQ+ veteran benefits.

  • Co-sponsored and helped pass the Respect for Marriage Act into federal law.
  • Introduced the SERVE Act to protect VA benefits for LGBTQ+ veterans discharged under Don't Ask, Don't Tell.
  • Introduced legislation establishing comprehensive equality under federal law in employment and housing.

“Throughout his career, Chris has been a passionate advocate for LGBTQ+ equality.”

“In 2018 Chris made history as the first out gay person to represent New Hampshire in Congress. In 2026 he’s ready to make history again as the first out gay man to serve in the United States Senate.”

Republican John Sununu

Opposes transgender girls competing in female sports

Sununu explicitly contrasts his positions with Pappas on social issues, citing Pappas's vote to allow transgender girls to compete in female sports categories as out of touch with New Hampshire voters.

  • Opposes federal policies permitting transgender athletes to compete in female sports divisions.

“He supports allowing boys to compete in girls' sports.”

08

Education

low salience

Democratic Chris Pappas

Supports public school funding, Pell grants, and apprenticeships

Pappas supports increasing federal investments in public elementary and secondary education, expanding Pell Grants, and providing student debt relief for high-demand careers like nursing. He also pushes to expand community college workforce training and trade apprenticeships.

  • Fought to restore $27 million in federal education funding for New Hampshire withheld by the previous administration.
  • Supports expanding Pell Grants, community college affordability, and debt relief for critical fields like nursing.
  • Secured funding for Nashua Community College workforce development and rural nursing programs.

“That is why he is committed to investing in our schools, supporting our teachers, and ensuring that every student can get a high-quality education to set them on a path to success.”

Republican John Sununu No documented position in our sources
09

Immigration and border security

low salience

Democratic Chris Pappas

Supports comprehensive reform, border tech, and DREAMers

Pappas supports comprehensive immigration reform that combines physical and technological border security enhancements with legal pathways to citizenship for law-abiding immigrants and permanent protections for DREAMers.

  • Supports border security infrastructure and modern detection technology investments.
  • Voted for protections and pathways to citizenship for DREAMers.
  • Supports legal immigration system reforms to meet state workforce needs.

“Chris supports comprehensive, common-sense immigration reform that will help fix our broken system and allow immigrants who work hard and follow the rules get a shot at their American dream.”

Republican John Sununu No documented position in our sources
10

Veterans and servicemembers

low salience

Democratic Chris Pappas

Supports VA expansion, toxic exposure care, and GI benefit flexibilities

Serving on the House Veterans' Affairs Committee, Pappas authored cost-of-living increases for veterans and helped pass toxic exposure healthcare expansions under the PACT Act. He also works to reduce VA backlogs and allow GI benefits to cover trucking and trade training.

  • Introduced and passed legislation providing cost-of-living increases for veterans and military families.
  • Supported expanding VA healthcare coverage for veterans affected by burn pits and toxic exposure.
  • Pushed to reduce VA appointment backlogs and allow GI benefits for commercial driving and trade programs.

“Chris introduced and passed legislation to provide a cost-of-living increase for veterans and military families, fought to reduce backlogs and wait times for care, and helped expand VA health care to millions of veterans suffering from toxic exposure.”

Republican John Sununu No documented position in our sources

Polls 10

updated Sep 16
204060APRMAYJUNJULAUGSUNUNU 45PAPPAS 43

Source: RealClearPolling · Pappas vs. Sununu ↗ · Pappas vs. Brown ↗

Pollster Date Sample Result Spread
UNH Aug 24 1878 LV Brown 40% / Pappas 45% Pappas +5.0
UNH Aug 24 1878 LV Pappas 43% / Sununu 45% Sununu +2.0
St. Anselm Aug 18 1411 LV Pappas 48% / Sununu 41% Pappas +7.0
St. Anselm Aug 18 1411 LV Brown 37% / Pappas 49% Pappas +12.0
St. Anselm Jun 25 1614 RV Pappas 47% / Sununu 41% Pappas +6.0
St. Anselm Jun 25 1614 RV Brown 36% / Pappas 48% Pappas +12.0
UNH Jun 23 2232 LV Brown 38% / Pappas 52% Pappas +14.0
UNH Jun 23 2232 LV Pappas 47% / Sununu 44% Pappas +3.0
Emerson Mar 23 1100 LV Brown 39% / Pappas 48% Pappas +9.0
Emerson Mar 23 1100 LV Pappas 45% / Sununu 44% Pappas +1.0

Prediction markets 6

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner

82.0% Democrats
18.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 82.0REPUBLICANS 18.5

Polymarket ↗

New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 100.0DEMOCRATS 0.0

Polymarket ↗

New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 100.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0

Kalshi ↗

New Hampshire Senate winner?

82.0% Chris Pappas
19.0% John E. Sununu
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 83.0PAPPAS 82.0SUNUNU 19.0PARTY 18.0

Kalshi ↗

New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee?

99.7% John E. Sununu
0.1% Chris Sununu
0.1% Dan Innis

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16SUNUNU 99.7SUNUNU 0.1BROWN 0.1INNIS 0.1

Kalshi ↗

New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?

99.9% Chris Pappas
0.1% Jared Sullivan
0.1% Annie Kuster

+3 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PAPPAS 99.9MANZUR 0.1SULLIVAN 0.1KUSTER 0.1SHAHEEN 0.1GOODLANDER 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.