2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · North Carolina Toss-up
North Carolina Senate race
The 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate election features Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper facing Republican former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley for the seat vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Thom Tillis. The race hinges on economic affordability, Hurricane Helene disaster recovery efforts, public safety records, and whether voters favor Cooper's executive record or Whatley's close alignment with President Donald Trump's agenda.
The pulse
updated Oct 31Economy and Cost of Living
high salienceCooper focuses on rolling back tariffs, curbing corporate price gouging, and lowering grocery prices, whereas Whatley emphasizes reining in federal spending and promoting an America First energy policy.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Lowering prices and rolling back tariffs
Cooper's platform focuses on making essential items cheaper for middle-class families by targeting grocery prices, utility bills, and corporate price collusion. He strongly advocates rolling back tariffs, arguing they hurt North Carolina farmers and drive up consumer costs at grocery stores and restaurants.
- Vote to roll back tariffs that burden farmers and drive up food costs.
- Strengthen antitrust enforcement to block corporate grocery retail and food processing mergers.
- Ban algorithms on grocery pricing to prevent individualized price inflation and digital collusion.
“The United States Supreme Court was clear that the constitutional authority on trade and tariffs rest[s] with Congress. I will vote to roll back the tariffs.”
“Roy Cooper is running for U.S. Senate to make stuff cost less, starting with the price of food and groceries.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Building an America First economy
Whatley promises to build an America First economy centered on fiscal discipline and energy production. He attributes cost-of-living pressures to federal spending and pledges to create economic conditions where families can afford homes and raise children.
- Rein in Washington's spending to curb inflation.
- Unleash domestic energy production to reduce energy and operating costs.
- Foster economic growth to help families buy homes and achieve upward mobility.
“America’s economic strength depends on reliable, affordable energy and reining in Washington’s reckless spending.”
“A better state where you can buy a home, raise a family and see your kids do better than you did – right here in the Old North State.”
Public Safety and Criminal Justice
high salienceWhatley advocates for rolling back cashless bail and putting more police on the streets while attacking Cooper's gubernatorial record, whereas Cooper highlights his past tenure as Attorney General overseeing crime reductions and expanding opioid treatments.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Supporting law enforcement and prosecution
Cooper points to his past tenure as North Carolina Attorney General, during which crime dropped by 30%, and his state leadership in combating the opioid epidemic. As governor, he created the state's Opioid Action Plan to decrease overdose deaths and illegal drug distribution.
- Oversaw a 30% reduction in crime while serving four terms as North Carolina Attorney General.
- Increased penalties for drug dealers and prosecuted child predators.
- Launched the state's Opioid Action Plan, reducing opioid prescriptions by 24%.
“As North Carolina’s top law enforcement official, Roy protected families across the state. He cracked down on child predators, worked to increase penalties for drug dealers, and oversaw a sharp (30%) decrease in crime.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Restoring law and order and backing police
Whatley makes public safety a central theme of his campaign, pledging to support police officers and reverse lenient criminal justice reforms. He strongly criticizes Cooper's record as governor, blaming his administration for inmate releases and cashless bail policies.
- Increase funding and compensation for law enforcement officers.
- Roll back cashless bail and pretrial release policies.
- Ensure repeat violent offenders face strict prison sentences.
“We need policies that are going to put more cops on the street, that are going to pay them better, and we need policies that are going to put dangerous criminals behind bars, not back on our streets.”
“As your next U.S. Senator, I will stand shoulder to shoulder with President Trump to restore law and order, roll back dangerous and lenient Democrat policies, back the blue without apology, and put law-abiding North Carolinians first.”
Disaster Relief and FEMA
high salienceCooper calls for recreating and rebuilding FEMA following Hurricane Helene, while Whatley advocates for FEMA efficiency reforms through his role on President Trump's FEMA Review Council.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Rebuilding FEMA and expanding federal recovery aid
Cooper calls for systemic structural overhaul of FEMA to ensure federal disaster preparedness following Hurricane Helene. He highlights his record as governor managing major hurricane recoveries and directing billions in relief funding.
- Recreate and restructure FEMA to improve federal emergency response capabilities.
- Secured over $3.2 billion in disaster recovery funds during his tenure as governor.
- Ensure federal relief funds quickly reach communities affected by natural disasters.
“recreate FEMA, because clearly, it has been almost destroyed. It's critical for us to have a federal agency ready to step up to help ... when these disasters strike.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Reforming FEMA efficiency and expediting disaster aid
Whatley highlights his appointment by President Trump to the FEMA Review Council to evaluate federal response capabilities following Hurricane Helene. He advocates for streamlined disaster management and claims credit for securing significant federal recovery aid.
- Serve on President Trump's FEMA Review Council to recommend agency overhauls.
- Streamline federal disaster management to accelerate relief delivery.
- Deliver historic disaster aid for Hurricane Helene recovery in North Carolina.
“supports efforts to make federal disaster management more efficient and looks forward to the FEMA Review Council presenting its report to the White House in the near future.”
Energy and Utility Costs
medium salienceCooper proposes regulating utility fees on data centers and modernizing the power grid to lower consumer electricity bills, while Whatley advocates unleashing domestic energy production to lower costs and achieve energy independence.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Lowering utility rates and modernizing power grids
Cooper proposes federal policies to address rising electricity rates, noting North Carolina bills have increased by 22% since 2020. He wants to require data centers to pay their full energy costs, incentivize tech companies to build private energy sources, prohibit shutoffs during extreme weather, and modernize the power grid.
- Require tech data centers to cover their full power costs to prevent consumer rate hikes.
- Ban utility companies from disconnecting electricity during extreme heat or cold.
- Modernize power grid infrastructure to lower costs and increase reliability.
“Electricity bills in North Carolina have risen 22 percent since 2020 with further increases on the horizon. Roy Cooper will work to deliver common-sense solutions that cut costs and protect families from being ripped off.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Unleashing domestic energy to achieve independence
Whatley advocates unleashing domestic energy production to lower energy costs for businesses and households. Drawing on his background as an energy executive and transition official, he contends energy independence is vital for national economic strength.
- Unleash domestic oil, gas, and energy development.
- Lower fuel and energy costs for families and commercial operations.
- Achieve full American energy independence.
“By practicing fiscal responsibility and unleashing American energy, we can empower American workers, create good-paying jobs, achieve energy independence, and build lasting prosperity for every American.”
Governance and Political Agenda
medium salienceWhatley promises to be a conservative champion and loyal ally advancing President Trump's legislative agenda, while Cooper emphasizes his gubernatorial record of bipartisan compromise and putting people over politics.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Bipartisan problem-solving and legislative balance
Cooper campaigns on his gubernatorial record of working across party lines with a Republican-controlled legislature to create jobs and expand Medicaid. He promises to prioritize constituents over partisan politics in Washington.
- Work with both parties to create job growth and expand state health coverage.
- Reassert congressional constitutional authority over international trade.
- Place constituent interests above partisan political disputes.
“I worked with the Republican General Assembly to help create 640,000 new, better-paying jobs in our state. I worked with them to help provide paid parental leave for state employees. I think it's critical for a U.S. senator to put the people before politics.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Enacting Trump agenda and protecting election integrity
Whatley highlights his leadership as RNC Chair and NC GOP Chair, promising to preserve the Republican Senate majority and serve as a champion for President Trump's legislative agenda.
- Preserve the Republican Senate majority in the 2026 midterms.
- Enact President Trump's America First agenda in Congress.
- Defend election integrity and expand Republican voter outreach.
“When I win this seat ... I'm going to be a conservative champion for North Carolina and I'm going to be an ally to our great president.”
“I am committed to advancing President Trump’s America First agenda as the next U.S. Senator from North Carolina.”
Border Security and Immigration
high salienceWhatley strongly supports President Trump's border security measures and mass deportation efforts, while Cooper's documented record includes vetoing state bills mandating sheriff cooperation with ICE.
Republican Michael Whatley
Securing borders and deporting illegal immigrants
Whatley fully supports President Trump's border security policies and mass deportation initiatives. He criticizes Cooper for vetoing state bills requiring local sheriffs to honor federal ICE detainer requests.
- 100% support securing the southern border and deporting illegal immigrants.
- Require local law enforcement to cooperate with ICE detainer requests.
- End federal programs that provide taxpayer funds to undocumented residents.
“I 100% support President Trump securing the border and deporting the millions of criminal illegal aliens that Joe Biden and Roy Cooper allowed into this country.”
Healthcare and Prescription Drugs
medium salienceCooper advocates expanding ACA tax credits, capping drug costs, and protecting Medicaid, whereas Whatley has no documented specific healthcare policy proposals in the provided sources.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Expanding access and lowering healthcare costs
Cooper emphasizes his success in expanding Medicaid in North Carolina as governor and pledges to bring healthcare affordability to the Senate. His platform includes expanding Medicare drug negotiations, capping out-of-pocket prescription expenses, reinstating ACA tax credits, and protecting patients from medical debt.
- Protect and expand ACA tax credits and reverse Medicaid cuts.
- Broaden Medicare price negotiations with pharmaceutical manufacturers and cap prescription costs.
- Allow doctors to make care coverage decisions instead of insurance executives.
- Curb surprise medical billing and mandate hospital charity care auto-enrollment.
“As Governor, Roy Cooper was able to bring Democrats and Republicans together to make real progress on health care, expanding Medicaid and helping hundreds of thousands of working North Carolinians get access to health insurance.”
What people say back
None of this is our opinion. Every number below counts replies real people wrote under Roy Cooper's and Michael Whatley's own posts.
1,413 replies from 811 accounts, sampled across both campaigns' posts · 9 documented issues · the ten loudest accounts wrote 9% of the replies
69%
of this conversation is about something neither campaign lists as an issue.
978 of 1,413 replies land off the issue map — the single largest block in the race, larger than any documented topic.
2026 Midterms · Street level
What the candidates post about
Each candidate's own posts, by topic. Bars are that candidate's share of their own classified posts; the figure beside each bar is the count. A dot means they document no position on the topic at all.
Classification is partial, so these are counts of classified posts — never shares of everything a candidate posted.
2026 Midterms · Street level
What their audiences talk about
Replies under each candidate's posts, same topics, same order. Bars are that side's share of their own replies, because the two audiences are different sizes.
Split by whose thread a reply landed under — an attribute of the post, not a judgement about the reply.
What nobody's answering
- Disaster relief and Hurricane Helene recovery — 32 replies, 2 posts from either campaign.
Newsletter
Every Tuesday, we email you who's winning NC Senate.
Which issues Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley are gaining ground on, what moved since last week, and what both of them are still ignoring. We email it; we don't publish it. Free until election day.
One email a week until November 3. Unsubscribe whenever.
For campaigns
You are seeing a fraction of what we measured.
We scored 1,413 replies in North Carolina — U.S. Senate. This page shows you the topic counts. Pluribus shows you whose message is actually landing, which replies are still winnable, how hostile your own threads are, and what people actually wrote.
We'll ask two questions first, so the demo runs on your race instead of a sample.
Polls 20
updated Oct 31Source: RealClearPolling · Cooper vs. Whatley ↗
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Result | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | Oct 25 | 722 LV | Roy Cooper 51% / Michael Whatley 43% | Cooper +8.0 |
| High Point University | Oct 20 | 620 LV | Roy Cooper 54% / Michael Whatley 40% | Cooper +14.0 |
| Carolina Journal/Harper | Oct 20 | 600 LV | Roy Cooper 49% / Michael Whatley 39% | Cooper +10.0 |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct 10 | 1091 LV | Roy Cooper 49% / Michael Whatley 41% | Cooper +8.0 |
| Elon University | Oct 8 | 561 LV | Roy Cooper 52% / Michael Whatley 39% | Cooper +13.0 |
| Carolina Forward/Change Res. | Oct 7 | 829 LV | Roy Cooper 50% / Michael Whatley 40% | Cooper +10.0 |
| WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA | Oct 7 | 643 LV | Roy Cooper 54% / Michael Whatley 40% | Cooper +14.0 |
| East Carolina U. | Oct 3 | 810 LV | Roy Cooper 50% / Michael Whatley 43% | Cooper +7.0 |
| Big Data Poll | Sep 29 | 642 LV | Roy Cooper 51% / Michael Whatley 39% | Cooper +12.0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | Sep 22 | 1047 LV | Roy Cooper 48% / Michael Whatley 41% | Cooper +7.0 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 22 | 688 LV | Roy Cooper 48% / Michael Whatley 43% | Cooper +5.0 |
| Fabrizio/Anzalone | Sep 20 | 1115 LV | Roy Cooper 53% / Michael Whatley 42% | Cooper +11.0 |
| YouGov | Sep 18 | 3745 LV | Roy Cooper 53% / Michael Whatley 41% | Cooper +12.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sep 17 | 1200 LV | Roy Cooper 48% / Michael Whatley 43% | Cooper +5.0 |
| High Point University | Sep 16 | 706 LV | Roy Cooper 50% / Michael Whatley 42% | Cooper +8.0 |
| Carolina Journal/Harper | Sep 15 | 608 LV | Roy Cooper 49% / Michael Whatley 34% | Cooper +15.0 |
| Trafalgar Group | Sep 10 | 1084 LV | Roy Cooper 48% / Michael Whatley 42% | Cooper +6.0 |
| East Carolina U. | Sep 3 | 675 LV | Roy Cooper 52% / Michael Whatley 44% | Cooper +8.0 |
| High Point University | Aug 12 | 660 LV | Roy Cooper 50% / Michael Whatley 45% | Cooper +5.0 |
| Carolina Journal/Harper | Aug 10 | 600 LV | Roy Cooper 52% / Michael Whatley 39% | Cooper +13.0 |
Prediction markets 2
updated Oct 31Polymarket ↗
North Carolina Senate Election Winner
Kalshi ↗
North Carolina Senate winner?
Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.
Social Values, Gun Rights, and Education
medium salienceWhatley pledges to protect Second Amendment rights, defend anti-abortion values, and keep woke ideology out of schools, whereas Cooper emphasizes expanding public education funding, raising teacher pay, and opposing discriminatory laws like HB2.
D Democratic Roy Cooper
Funding public schools and opposing discrimination
Cooper emphasizes his commitment to public education, having raised teacher pay by 9.5% and expanded pre-K programs as governor. He highlights his record repealing HB2 to prevent discrimination and warns against underfunding public schools.
R Republican Michael Whatley
Protecting conservative values, gun rights, and life
Whatley pledges to defend conservative culture principles in the U.S. Senate. He vows to protect Second Amendment rights, defend anti-abortion policies, and block progressive curricula from public schools.