2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · North Carolina Toss-up
North Carolina — U.S. Senate
The 2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate election features Democratic former two-term Governor Roy Cooper against Republican former RNC and NC GOP Chairman Michael Whatley for the seat opened by incumbent Thom Tillis's retirement. The race hinges on Cooper's statewide name recognition and executive record versus Whatley's alignment with President Donald Trump and North Carolina's recent Republican presidential lean. Key campaign battlegrounds include cost-of-living policy, disaster response following Hurricane Helene, public safety, and federal tariffs. Major handicappers rate the contest as Lean Democratic (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) to Tilt Democratic (Inside Elections).
The pulse
updated Sep 16Economy and Cost of Living
high salienceCooper targets corporate price-setting algorithms and food mergers to lower consumer costs, while Whatley focuses on cutting federal spending and implementing Trump's national economic agenda.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Lowers grocery prices and bans dynamic pricing
Cooper campaigns on a platform titled Make Stuff Cost Less, prioritizing lowering prices for groceries and everyday goods. He advocates for aggressive antitrust enforcement against corporate food mergers and bans on dynamic pricing algorithms.
- Block anti-competitive mergers in grocery retail and food processing.
- Ban pricing algorithms that adjust grocery prices based on specific individual consumers.
- Make it illegal for food producers to use digital tools to collude on supply and prices.
- Roll back tariffs that increase costs for farmers, grocers, and consumers.
“Roy Cooper is running for U.S. Senate to make stuff cost less, starting with the price of food and groceries.”
“I’m running for Senate because it’s time for that to change.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Promotes fiscal restraint and economic growth
Whatley connects economic recovery to reining in federal spending and expanding domestic production. He promises to advance President Trump's America First economic agenda in the Senate.
- Rein in reckless federal spending in Washington to curb inflation.
- Empower American workers and support a booming agricultural and rural economy.
- Enact President Trump's national economic agenda.
“America’s economic strength depends on reliable, affordable energy and reining in Washington’s reckless spending.”
“More money in your pockets, safe communities, and a strong country.”
Public Safety and Law Enforcement
high salienceWhatley advocates eliminating cashless bail and increasing police funding to combat violent crime, whereas Cooper defends his executive record of crime reduction and anti-opioid initiatives.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Highlights law enforcement and anti-drug record
Cooper points to his past tenure as Attorney General and Governor, highlighting historic drops in crime rates and bipartisan efforts to combat the opioid epidemic. He defends his record of funding public safety and supporting law enforcement.
- Oversaw a 30 percent decrease in state crime rates while serving as Attorney General.
- Launched the state Opioid Action Plan, cutting opioid prescriptions by 24 percent.
- Worked across party lines to create safer communities and support law enforcement.
“As North Carolina’s top law enforcement official, Roy protected families across the state.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Ends cashless bail and expands policing
Whatley frames public safety as a central theme of his campaign, advocating for a return to law and order. He promises to eliminate cashless bail, increase police pay, and keep violent offenders incarcerated.
- Roll back cashless bail and expansive pretrial release policies.
- Increase funding to put more police officers on the street with higher compensation.
- Impose stricter incarceration policies for repeat violent offenders.
- Stand shoulder to shoulder with President Trump to restore law and order.
“We need policies that are going to put more cops on the street, that are going to pay them better, and we need policies that are going to put dangerous criminals behind bars, not back on our streets.”
“As your next U.S. Senator, I will stand shoulder to shoulder with President Trump to restore law and order, roll back dangerous and lenient Democrat policies, back the blue without apology, and put law-abiding North Carolinians first.”
Border Security and Immigration
high salienceWhatley calls for securing the border and mass deportations, while Cooper's record includes vetoing state mandates requiring sheriffs to cooperate with ICE.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Opposes mandatory sheriff cooperation with ICE
As governor, Cooper vetoed state legislation that would have mandated local sheriffs to cooperate with federal ICE authorities. His federal platform focuses primarily on economic and healthcare policies rather than new immigration initiatives.
- Vetoed state legislation requiring local sheriffs to detain and transfer undocumented immigrants to ICE.
Republican Michael Whatley
Supports border closure and mass deportations
Whatley fully aligns with President Trump's immigration stance, prioritizing total border security. He pledges to support the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants with criminal records.
- Fully support President Trump's plan to secure the southern border.
- Execute mass deportations of criminal undocumented immigrants.
- Prevent undocumented immigrants from receiving taxpayer benefits and trafficking drugs.
“I 100% support President Trump securing the border and deporting the millions of criminal illegal aliens that Joe Biden and Roy Cooper allowed into this country.”
Disaster Relief and Hurricane Recovery
high salienceCooper proposes recreating FEMA from the ground up, while Whatley emphasizes his work on President Trump's FEMA Review Council to streamline aid delivery.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Overhauls FEMA to accelerate disaster response
Following the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, Cooper advocates for recreating and overhauling FEMA to ensure federal emergency response is efficient. He cites his gubernatorial leadership overseeing over $3 billion in storm recovery.
- Recreate and reform FEMA to make federal emergency response faster and more effective.
- Build on his experience directing $3.2 billion in disaster recovery investments as governor.
“recreate FEMA, because clearly, it has been almost destroyed. It's critical for us to have a federal agency ready to step up to help ... when these disasters strike.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Reforms FEMA via Presidential Review Council
Appointed by President Trump to the FEMA Review Council, Whatley emphasizes reforming federal disaster management. He highlights delivering record recovery aid to North Carolina communities affected by Hurricane Helene.
- Serve on the President's FEMA Review Council to evaluate and improve federal response capabilities.
- Deliver billions in disaster relief aid for Hurricane Helene recovery in North Carolina.
- Present White House recommendations to streamline emergency management.
“I have worked with the Trump administration to deliver more aid for Hurricane Helene recovery than any other recovery project in the history of North Carolina.”
Housing and Rent Affordability
medium salienceCooper targets corporate home buyers and rent-setting algorithms, whereas Whatley focuses on overall economic growth to enable homeownership.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Builds housing and bans rent-setting algorithms
Cooper addresses rising housing costs by proposing restrictions on institutional buyers and dynamic rent algorithms. He also supports incentives to construct modular and multi-family homes.
- Provide incentives for multi-family and modular construction to increase home supply.
- Restrict large corporations, investment funds, and foreign companies from buying single-family homes.
- Ban algorithm-driven rent-setting software used by corporate landlords.
- End tariffs on construction materials like lumber, steel, and aluminum.
“Stop the bad actors driving up the price of housing for families across the state and make housing cost less.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Promotes homeownership through overall economic strength
Whatley connects housing affordability to broader economic growth, promising to foster a state economy where families can afford homes and build wealth.
- Create an economic environment where workers can afford to buy homes and raise families in North Carolina.
“A better state where you can buy a home, raise a family and see your kids do better than you did – right here in the Old North State.”
Energy and Utility Costs
medium salienceWhatley champions unleashing domestic energy production to drive down costs, while Cooper focuses on grid modernization and regulating data center power charges.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Modernizes grid and protects consumers from rate hikes
Cooper proposes modernizing the energy grid and preventing tech data centers from passing power costs onto average utility ratepayers. He also advocates banning utility cutoffs during extreme weather.
- Ensure data centers pay full energy costs to prevent rate hikes on consumers.
- Encourage tech companies to build dedicated internal energy sources.
- Ban utility disconnections during extreme hot and cold weather.
- Modernize the energy grid to boost reliability and lower utility bills.
“Roy Cooper will work to deliver common-sense solutions that cut costs and protect families from being ripped off.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Unleashes domestic energy to cut costs
Whatley advocates unleashing domestic energy production to achieve energy independence and lower utility prices. He cites his background leading presidential transition energy and environment teams.
- Unleash domestic energy production to achieve national energy independence.
- Lower energy prices for consumers and businesses through expanded energy production.
- Utilize experience overseeing federal farm and energy policy development.
“By practicing fiscal responsibility and unleashing American energy, we can empower American workers, create good-paying jobs, achieve energy independence, and build lasting prosperity for every American.”
Trade and Tariffs
medium salienceCooper pledges to vote in the Senate to roll back tariffs, asserting congressional trade authority, whereas Whatley supports President Trump's America First tariff and trade agenda.
Democratic Roy Cooper
Opposes tariffs and asserts congressional authority
Cooper opposes executive trade tariffs, asserting that constitutional authority over tariffs belongs to Congress. He pledges to vote in the Senate to roll back tariffs that raise costs for agricultural producers and consumers.
- Vote to roll back federal tariffs on international goods.
- Reassert congressional constitutional authority over international trade policy.
- Protect agricultural producers and construction firms from tariff-related cost increases.
“The United States Supreme Court was clear that the constitutional authority on trade and tariffs rest[s] with Congress. I will vote to roll back the tariffs.”
Republican Michael Whatley
Supports America First trade and farm policies
Whatley supports President Trump's America First trade agenda, having led transition teams focused on agricultural and energy trade strategy.
- Support President Trump's America First trade policies.
- Promote farm plans developed during the presidential transition to support rural economies.
Health Care and Prescription Drugs
medium salienceDemocratic Roy Cooper
Expands coverage and lowers prescription costs
Building on his gubernatorial achievement of Medicaid expansion, Cooper offers a multi-point plan to lower healthcare costs. He advocates for protecting doctor autonomy, reinstating ACA tax credits, capping drug costs, and curbing surprise billing.
- Allow doctors rather than insurance bureaucrats to make medical coverage decisions.
- Reinstate ACA tax credits and reverse Medicaid cuts to reduce health insurance premiums.
- Broaden Medicare prescription drug negotiations and cap out-of-pocket prescription drug costs.
- Curb surprise medical billing by capping out-of-network non-emergency charges.
- Mandate hospital auto-enrollment in charity care to prevent consumer medical debt.
“He will take that same common sense bipartisanship to Washington to make health care cost less the way he’s done his entire career.”
Child Care
low salienceDemocratic Roy Cooper
Expands child care tax credits and provider support
Cooper presents a detailed plan to lower child care costs for working and stay-at-home parents. His platform includes expanding tax credits, funding workforce apprenticeships, reducing unnecessary facility regulations, and offering employer incentives.
- Expand the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit for working families.
- Invest in apprenticeships and higher wages for child care workers.
- Streamline child care facility regulations without sacrificing safety.
- Provide tax credits to employers providing child care subsidies or on-site care.
“Lower the cost of child care for parents who work and parents who stay at home.”
What people say back
None of this is our opinion. Every number below counts replies real people wrote under Roy Cooper's and Michael Whatley's own posts.
1,413 replies from 811 accounts, sampled across both campaigns' posts · 9 documented issues · the ten loudest accounts wrote 9% of the replies
69%
of this conversation is about something neither campaign lists as an issue.
978 of 1,413 replies land off the issue map — the single largest block in the race, larger than any documented topic.
2026 Midterms · Street level
What the candidates post about
Each candidate's own posts, by topic. Bars are that candidate's share of their own classified posts; the figure beside each bar is the count. A dot means they document no position on the topic at all.
Classification is partial, so these are counts of classified posts — never shares of everything a candidate posted.
2026 Midterms · Street level
What their audiences talk about
Replies under each candidate's posts, same topics, same order. Bars are that side's share of their own replies, because the two audiences are different sizes.
Split by whose thread a reply landed under — an attribute of the post, not a judgement about the reply.
What nobody's answering
- Disaster relief and Hurricane Helene recovery — 32 replies, 2 posts from either campaign.
Newsletter
Every Tuesday, we email you who's winning NC Senate.
Which issues Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley are gaining ground on, what moved since last week, and what both of them are still ignoring. We email it; we don't publish it. Free until election day.
One email a week until November 3. Unsubscribe whenever.
For campaigns
You are seeing a fraction of what we measured.
We scored 1,413 replies in North Carolina — U.S. Senate. This page shows you the topic counts. Pluribus shows you whose message is actually landing, which replies are still winnable, how hostile your own threads are, and what people actually wrote.
We'll ask two questions first, so the demo runs on your race instead of a sample.
Polls 10
updated Sep 16Source: RealClearPolling · Cooper vs. Whatley ↗
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Result | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University | Aug 12 | 660 LV | Roy Cooper 50% / Michael Whatley 45% | Cooper +5.0 |
| Carolina Journal/Harper | Aug 10 | 600 LV | Roy Cooper 52% / Michael Whatley 39% | Cooper +13.0 |
| Carolina Forward/Change Res. | Aug 6 | 915 LV | Roy Cooper 50% / Michael Whatley 43% | Cooper +7.0 |
| Change Research | Aug 1 | 967 LV | Roy Cooper 50% / Michael Whatley 41% | Cooper +9.0 |
| Elon University | Jul 31 | 466 LV | Roy Cooper 53% / Michael Whatley 42% | Cooper +11.0 |
| FOX News | Jul 27 | 1005 RV | Roy Cooper 53% / Michael Whatley 44% | Cooper +9.0 |
| PPP | Jul 11 | 759 RV | Roy Cooper 48% / Michael Whatley 44% | Cooper +4.0 |
| NY Times/Siena | Jun 29 | 601 LV | Roy Cooper 50% / Michael Whatley 43% | Cooper +7.0 |
| Carolina Journal/Harper | May 11 | 600 LV | Roy Cooper 50% / Michael Whatley 39% | Cooper +11.0 |
| Carolina Forward/Change Res. | May 8 | 957 LV | Roy Cooper 49% / Michael Whatley 42% | Cooper +7.0 |
Prediction markets 2
updated Sep 16Polymarket ↗
North Carolina Senate Election Winner
Kalshi ↗
North Carolina Senate winner?
Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.
Social Issues, Education, and Culture
medium salienceWhatley promises to fight progressive school curricula, defend gun rights, and protect life, while Cooper focuses on expanding public school funding and opposing culture-war legislation.
D Democratic Roy Cooper
Supports public education funding and LGBTQ rights
Cooper emphasizes public school funding, higher teacher salaries, and economic inclusivity over social culture wars. As governor, he repealed bathroom restrictions in HB 2, expanded pre-K programs, and prohibited conversion therapy state funding.
R Republican Michael Whatley
Protects life, 2nd Amendment, and traditional values
Whatley commits to defending traditional conservative principles in the Senate. He vows to protect anti-abortion policies, defend gun rights, and eliminate progressive social curricula from public schools.