2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Minnesota Likely D
Minnesota — U.S. Senate
The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota features Democratic nominee Peggy Flanagan, the state's Lieutenant Governor, facing Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster and reporter, for the open seat vacated by retiring Senator Tina Smith. Flanagan advanced after winning a competitive Democratic primary on August 11, 2026, running on a progressive platform focused on healthcare, labor rights, and anti-corruption. Tafoya secured the Republican nomination on the same day by highlighting state government accountability, anti-fraud enforcement, tough-on-crime policies, and middle-class tax relief. Major election forecasters including Cook Political Report, DDHQ/The Hill, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball currently rate the general election as Likely Democratic.
The pulse
updated Sep 16Economy & Cost of Living
high salienceFlanagan favors raising the federal minimum wage to $17 and establishing national paid family leave, whereas Tafoya focuses on preserving tax cuts and curbing federal spending to fight inflation.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Supports living wages and paid leave
Flanagan advocates for an economy built around working families by raising wages, enacting universal paid leave, and lowering everyday costs. She supports tax relief for working families funded by ensuring corporations and wealthy individuals pay higher effective tax rates.
- Co-sponsored Minnesota's minimum wage increase and supports a $17 federal minimum wage tied to inflation.
- Champions national paid family and medical leave and universal childcare.
- Supports expanding the Child Tax Credit and protecting Social Security by raising the contribution income cap on high earners.
“I’m focused on building a fair economy that gives people the opportunity to afford the lives they want to live–for themselves and their families.”
Republican Michele Tafoya
Opposes tax hikes and runaway spending
Tafoya targets inflation by proposing cuts to federal spending, borrowing, and taxation. She supports protecting middle-class tax relief and opposing broad tax increases that squeeze family budgets.
- Protects Working Family Tax Cuts and opposes tax increases on middle-class families.
- Advocates reducing congressional spending, borrowing, and tax burdens.
- Pushes to invest in American workers over federal bureaucracy and IRS expansion.
“The far left’s tax hikes and runaway spending got us painful inflation that is still squeezing Minnesotans to this day.”
Healthcare
high salienceFlanagan advocates for Medicare for All and a ban on insurance prior authorizations, while Tafoya favors market-based reforms to target middlemen and reduce prescription drug costs.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Supports Medicare for All and expanded coverage
Flanagan treats healthcare as a fundamental human right and supports transitioning to Medicare for All. In the interim, she seeks to ban insurance prior authorization, expand Medicare and Medicaid coverage to include dental, vision, and hearing, and empower Medicare to negotiate all prescription drug prices.
- Fights for Medicare for All while working to expand existing coverage for vision, dental, and hearing.
- Proposes banning health insurance companies from using prior authorization processes.
- Requires Medicare and Medicaid to negotiate all prescription drug prices to lower costs.
“Peggy believes healthcare is a human right and will fight for Medicare for All, ensuring providers, clinics, and hospitals have the resources to give people the care they deserve.”
Republican Michele Tafoya
Advocates market reforms and price transparency
Tafoya opposes single-payer government healthcare systems while taking on corporate health insurance middlemen and price-gougers. She emphasizes reducing healthcare inflation, lowering prescription costs, and protecting patient choice.
- Opposes handing healthcare decisions over to government bureaucrats.
- Targets health insurance middlemen, price-gouging, and rising prescription costs.
- Seeks to keep medical decision-making directly between patients and their physicians.
“As our Senator, Michele will fight ALL the bureaucrats, middlemen and price-gougers, cut prescription drug costs and keep power in the hands of patients.”
Crime, Fraud & Public Safety
high salienceTafoya prioritizes mandatory prison sentences for fraud and increased support for police, whereas Flanagan emphasizes due process and broader community support programs.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Supports due process and community-centered safety
Flanagan emphasizes public safety through social safety-net investments, community schools, and constitutional due process protections. She opposes federal law enforcement overreach and mass detention operations.
- Supports expanding Full-Service Community Schools that deliver health, mental health, and nutritional resources.
- Defends constitutional due process and opposes unconstitutional mass detention tactics.
“Due process is the foundation of the American justice system.”
Republican Michele Tafoya
Supports tough anti-fraud and law enforcement policies
Tafoya centers her campaign on combating taxpayer fraud and restoring law and order, advocating mandatory prison sentences for fraudsters and deportation for non-citizens convicted of fraud. She strongly backs law enforcement funding and tougher criminal penalties.
- Co-sponsor the Deporting Fraudsters Act to deport non-citizens convicted of fraud.
- Establish mandatory minimum federal prison sentences for fraud crimes.
- Strip federal funding from states that fail to implement mandatory anti-fraud controls and audit practices.
- Increase funding, equipment, and legal protections for law enforcement officers.
“Any immigrant who is a guest in our country and gets convicted of fraud must be deported.”
Immigration & Border Security
high salienceTafoya advocates strict border enforcement, fully funding ICE, and deporting criminal non-citizens, while Flanagan opposes mass deportations and focuses on due process protections for immigrants.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Opposes mass deportations and supports pathway to citizenship
Flanagan strongly condemns mass deportation enforcement and family separations, calling for a human-rights-centered immigration overhaul grounded in due process. She criticizes aggressive federal deportation operations and advocates for humane legal immigration pathways.
- Opposes mass deportation sweeps and family separation practices.
- Protects due process rights for lawful residents and observers against federal harassment.
“The brutal mass deportation Operation Metro Surge exposed the brutality of the Trump administration’s mass deportation agenda. It’s tearing apart families, destroying communities, and upending our economy.”
Republican Michele Tafoya
Supports border enforcement and mass deportations
Tafoya supports strict border enforcement, deporting non-citizens who commit violent crimes or fraud, and fully funding ICE. She rejects sanctuary city policies and advocates enforcing federal immigration laws nationwide.
- Enforce federal immigration laws, secure the southern border, and deport criminal non-citizens.
- Oppose efforts to abolish ICE or obstruct federal immigration enforcement.
“The American people overwhelmingly agree with President Trump that our border should be secure, our laws should be enforced and criminal illegal immigrants should be deported.”
Democracy, Elections & Ethics
medium salienceFlanagan prioritizes banning corporate PAC money and congressional stock trading, whereas Tafoya emphasizes mandatory photo voter ID and paper ballot requirements.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Supports campaign finance and ethics reform
Flanagan pledges to unrig Washington by banning corporate PAC money, prohibiting stock trading for federal elected officials, and reversing Citizens United. She also supports federal legislation to protect voting rights and reform the Supreme Court.
- Refuses corporate PAC money and advocates banning corporate and dark money in federal elections.
- Supports banning stock trading for members of Congress and the President.
- Advocates banning elected officials from lobbying and supports Supreme Court reform.
- Supports passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.
“In the Senate, Peggy will fight to ban corporate money in our elections and require disclosure of all donors. D.C. won’t work for people until we get corporate and dark money out of our democracy.”
Republican Michele Tafoya
Supports voter ID and election security
Tafoya focuses election reform on voter verification and integrity, advocating mandatory photo voter ID and paper ballots. She supports federal legislation like the SAVE Act to safeguard democratic processes.
- Supports requiring photo voter ID and paper ballots for elections.
- Backs federal passage of the SAVE Act.
“There is no excuse for not protecting our democracy with voter ID and paper ballots.”
Energy & Climate
medium salienceFlanagan backs a state and federal transition toward 100% carbon-free electricity, while Tafoya calls for an all-of-the-above energy model to preserve reliable traditional power sources.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Supports 100% carbon-free energy transition
Flanagan promotes aggressive clean energy policies to fight climate change, pointing to Minnesota's commitment to 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040. She supports investing in wind, solar, biofuels, and green technologies that generate union jobs.
- Opposes clean energy investment rollbacks and supports expanding wind and solar infrastructure.
- Supports advanced clean technologies including Sustainable Aviation Fuels, biofuels, and green hydrogen.
- Protects Minnesota water resources and enforces environmental compliance standards.
“Peggy believes we need to take action to fight climate change, protect our planet, and invest in climate adaptation.”
Republican Michele Tafoya
Supports all-of-the-above energy production
Tafoya champions an all-of-the-above energy approach aimed at lowering utility bills and fuel prices. She emphasizes maintaining clean-burning, reliable domestic energy sources alongside renewables to guarantee grid reliability.
- Supports utilizing all U.S. energy sources to lower gas prices and utility bills.
- Prioritizes reliable power generation that functions independently of weather conditions.
“Our family budgets and national security depend on affordable, clean-burning American energy that doesn’t stop when the sun sets or the wind stops blowing.”
Education & Cultural Issues
medium salienceTafoya advocates for parents' rights and banning biological males from women's sports, whereas Flanagan focuses on fully funding special education, universal pre-K, and passing the Equality Act.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Supports public education and LGBTQ2S+ equality
Flanagan supports expanding early education and fully funding special education while rejecting private school vouchers. She also pledges to pass the Equality Act to prohibit discrimination based on gender identity or sexual orientation.
- Fully fund the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA).
- Expand universal Pre-K and Head Start funding.
- Pass the Equality Act and defend comprehensive reproductive healthcare access.
“Peggy will fight to pass the Equality Act so no one, including the LGBTQ2S+ community, can be discriminated against.”
Republican Michele Tafoya
Supports parents' rights and protecting women's sports
Tafoya advocates for education reforms that restore parental transparency and address declining test scores. She strongly opposes allowing biological males to compete in female athletics or enter women's locker rooms.
- Prohibits biological men from competing in women's sports and entering female locker rooms.
- Advocates education reforms that increase parental authority and academic accountability.
“As our Senator, Michele will protect Minnesota kids from insane ideologies and keep men out of women’s sports and locker rooms.”
Agriculture
low salienceFlanagan details concrete agricultural proposals including a 5-year Farm Bill and Right to Repair legislation, whereas Tafoya has no documented standalone platform on agriculture in the available sources.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Supports Farm Bill, biofuels, and Right to Repair
Flanagan focuses on stabilizing farm family incomes by reversing international tariffs, passing a comprehensive 5-year Farm Bill, defending farmers' Right to Repair their equipment, and expanding biofuel markets.
- Pass a comprehensive five-year Farm Bill with strong agricultural safety nets.
- Enact Right to Repair laws for farm machinery.
- Eliminate foreign tariffs affecting Minnesota agricultural exports.
- Support biofuels and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) development.
“Peggy believes that when farmers invest their hard-earned money in equipment, they should have the right to repair it themselves or choose their own mechanic.”
Housing & Senior Security
low salienceFlanagan proposes banning corporate landlords from buying single-family homes and eliminating taxes on Social Security, while Tafoya has no documented standalone positions on housing or senior programs in the sources.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Supports affordable housing and Social Security protection
Flanagan proposes banning large corporate hedge funds from buying single-family homes and passing federal legislation to expand affordable housing construction. She also advocates eliminating federal taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors.
- Ban large corporate landlords and hedge funds from purchasing single-family homes.
- Pass The Homes Act to fund affordable housing construction.
- Eliminate federal income taxes on Social Security benefits.
“An increasing number of homes in Minnesota are owned by Wall Street speculators who are outbidding hardworking Minnesota families. Peggy believes we should ban large corporate landlords and hedge funds from purchasing single-family homes.”
Foreign Policy
low salienceFlanagan outlines specific foreign policy commitments including Middle East ceasefire terms and NATO support, whereas Tafoya presents no explicit foreign policy section in the provided materials.
Democratic Peggy Flanagan
Supports diplomacy, Middle East ceasefire, and NATO
Flanagan supports a negotiated two-state solution and ceasefire in the Middle East, halting offensive arms sales to Israel, surging aid to Gaza, and maintaining strong defense commitments to NATO and Ukraine.
- Supports a lasting Middle East ceasefire, surge of Gaza aid, and two-state solution.
- Supports halting offensive weapons sales to Israel.
- Rebuilds ties with NATO allies and supports Ukraine against Russian aggression.
“Peggy would have joined Minnesota Senators Smith and Klobuchar in voting to halt offensive weapons sales to Israel.”
Prediction markets 6
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