Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Michigan Toss-up

Michigan — U.S. Senate

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan features Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed facing Republican nominee Mike Rogers for the open seat vacated by retiring incumbent Senator Gary Peters. With Republicans holding a narrow Senate majority, the race is pivotal to determining chamber control and is widely viewed by political analysts as a national bellwether for progressive politics in a battleground state. Major election analysts, including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, rate the contest as a Toss-up, while Decision Desk HQ rates it Lean Democratic. The race hinges on turnout among core party bases and key voter demographics across Michigan.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
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100.0%
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Polymarket ↗
Democrats
61.5%
Republicans
39.5%
Polymarket ↗
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100.0%
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Kalshi ↗
Haley Stevens
99.0%
Mallory McMorrow
1.0%
Abdul El-Sayed
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Abdul El-Sayed
61.0%
Mike Rogers
39.0%
Kalshi ↗
Abdul El-Sayed
99.8%
Haley Stevens
0.3%
Matt Sahr
0.1%
Andy Levin
0.1%
Kristen McDonald Rivet
0.1%
Rashida Tlaib
0.1%
Dana Nessel
0.1%
Sarah Anthony
0.1%
Mallory McMorrow
0.1%
Kalshi ↗
Abdul El-Sayed
63.0%
Mike Rogers
39.0%
Mallory McMorrow
1.0%
Haley Stevens
1.0%
Trafalgar Group ↗ Sep 9 · El-Sayed +1.0 · via RCP
El-Sayed
46%
Rogers
45%

All 20 polls → All markets →

01

Healthcare

high salience

El-Sayed supports replacing private health insurance with a single-payer Medicare for All system, whereas Rogers advocates protecting existing Medicare programs and using market-oriented approaches to lower drug costs.

Democratic Abdul El-Sayed

Supports Medicare for All and debt elimination

El-Sayed advocates for a universal single-payer healthcare system, framing healthcare as a fundamental human right. He supports enacting Medicare for All to eliminate deductibles, co-pays, and medical debt, drawing on his experience as a physician and public health official who canceled $700 million in medical debt in Wayne County.

  • Author of Medicare for All: A Citizen's Guide and former member of Biden's Unity Task Force for Healthcare.
  • Proposes enacting Medicare for All to eliminate co-pays, deductibles, and medical debt nationwide.
  • Calls for breaking up big healthcare monopolies, negotiating lower drug prices, and protecting reproductive and LGBTQ+ healthcare freedoms.

“I literally wrote the book on Medicare for All because healthcare is a human right, not a privilege.”

“Our current system has put over $225 billion in medical debt onto Americans; I already erased it for 300,000 Michiganders in Wayne County and will do it again in the US Senate.”

Republican Mike Rogers

Protects Medicare and lowers drug costs

Rogers emphasizes protecting Medicare and Social Security for seniors while reducing prescription drug costs through market-based measures. He highlights his congressional record of helping pass Medicare Part D and opposing cuts to senior health benefits.

  • Pledges to protect Social Security and Medicare benefits for seniors.
  • Highlights congressional record co-authoring legislation to repeal Medicare benefit cuts and passing Medicare Part D.
  • Voted for legislation requiring congressional oversight and approval for Affordable Care Act administrative rules.

“lowering the cost of gas, groceries, & prescription drugs, protecting seniors’ social security & medicare”

“Mike co-authored legislation to repeal ObamaCare’s $716 billion dollar cut to Medicare.”

02

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

El-Sayed seeks to address affordability through wealth taxes, antitrust enforcement, and expanded union protections, while Rogers proposes cutting taxes, reducing regulation, and incentivizing manufacturing jobs.

Democratic Abdul El-Sayed

Supports taxing wealth and union protections

El-Sayed focuses on tackling working-class affordability by curbing corporate market power and enforcing antitrust regulations to stop price-gouging. He proposes taxing billionaire wealth to fund public investments and passing the PRO Act to strengthen labor union rights.

  • Proposes taxing billionaire wealth to invest in infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
  • Advocates for strict enforcement of antitrust laws to prevent corporate consolidation and price-gouging.
  • Supports passing the PRO Act to protect workers' rights to organize unions and earn fair wages.

“The affordability crisis has made it too hard for working people to get by.”

“In the Senate, I will fight against corporate tax breaks and to enforce antitrust laws, so corporations can’t keep buying each other and price-gouging us.”

Republican Mike Rogers

Supports bringing back manufacturing and tax relief

Rogers pledges to revitalize Michigan's economy by bringing manufacturing jobs back home and lowering the costs of gas and groceries. He supports cutting regulatory burdens on businesses and freezing taxes to incentivize hiring.

  • Focuses on bringing manufacturing supply chains and jobs back to Michigan.
  • Opposes tax hikes and promises lower taxes for working families and employers.
  • Advocates for rolling back federal regulations to provide economic certainty for employers.

“That means bringing manufacturing jobs back home, lowering the cost of gas, groceries, & prescription drugs”

“No new taxes or regulations on employers for two years. Give employers the certainty they need to start hiring Michigan workers again.”

03

Housing

high salience

El-Sayed advocates restricting institutional real estate speculation and expanding public investments, whereas Rogers proposes expanding 529 plans for down payments and establishing tax-free zones for homebuilders.

Democratic Abdul El-Sayed

Supports affordable housing and curbs on speculation

El-Sayed treats housing as a core affordability priority, advocating for policies to make homeownership attainable for working families. He supports restricting private equity firms from purchasing residential housing and expanding investments to combat homelessness.

  • Advocates for housing policy reforms so homeownership is accessible to families rather than private equity funds.
  • Supports federal funding to increase affordable housing supply and combat homelessness.

“We can create a government that invests in the needs of working people and makes it possible to afford a home, put food on the table, and create a future for their kids.”

Republican Mike Rogers

Supports 529 housing expansion and deregulation

Rogers introduced a dedicated four-point housing plan aimed at breaking down barriers to homeownership through tax incentives and regulatory reform. His plan allows families to use 529 savings accounts for home down payments, builds credit via rent payments, cuts zoning regulations, and creates tax-free zones for builders.

  • Expands tax-free 529 savings plans to cover first-time home down payments and property taxes.
  • Allows renters to build credit through timely rent payments and defer student loans while saving for a home.
  • Rolls back federal and state zoning regulations and creates tax-free residential zones for 100% of new home construction.

“Breaks down barriers to homeownership by rolling back overregulation that drove housing costs up with no real benefit”

“Incentivizes new home construction with residential housing zones where 100% of new construction is tax free”

04

Education

medium salience

El-Sayed advocates funding public schools through taxes on billionaire wealth, whereas Rogers emphasizes focusing school curricula on academic fundamentals over what he terms political indoctrination.

Democratic Abdul El-Sayed

Supports funding public education via wealth taxes

El-Sayed supports robust public education funding from early childhood through college, funded by taxes on billionaire wealth. He highlights his local health leadership record in Detroit and Wayne County securing lead removal in schools and vision care for students.

  • Advocates taxing billionaire wealth to increase investments in public education.
  • Highlights administrative accomplishment securing free glasses for students and removing lead from public schools.

“And we must tax billionaire wealth to invest in education, healthcare, and infrastructure.”

Republican Mike Rogers

Supports prioritizing academics over indoctrination

Rogers emphasizes setting children up for success by focusing school curricula on core academic fundamentals rather than political indoctrination. He also points to his past legislative efforts eliminating federal taxes on education savings plans.

  • Pledges to prioritize core academic education and eliminate ideological indoctrination in schools.
  • Points to congressional voting record eliminating federal taxes on education savings plans.

“setting our kids up for success by prioritizing education not indoctrination.”

05

Foreign Policy and National Security

medium salience

El-Sayed stresses diplomacy and international human rights in foreign affairs, while Rogers highlights his experience leading the House Intelligence Committee to counter global adversaries like China.

Democratic Abdul El-Sayed

Supports diplomacy and sensible foreign policy

El-Sayed calls for a sensible foreign policy rooted in diplomacy, human rights, and international justice. He is endorsed by progressive foreign policy and peace organizations opposed to foreign military interventions.

  • Advocates for a foreign policy focused on international diplomacy, human rights, and global justice.
  • Earned endorsements from peace and human rights advocacy groups.

“Abdul is fighting for an economy that works for everyone, healthcare for all, affordable housing, quality education, clean air and water, and sensible foreign policy.”

Republican Mike Rogers

Supports national defense and intelligence leadership

Rogers highlights his background as an Army veteran, FBI agent, and former Chair of the House Intelligence Committee to advocate for strong national defense capabilities. He stresses early warnings against national security threats from China and countering terrorism.

  • Emphasizes leadership experience as Chair of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, FBI special agent, and Army officer.
  • Cites early leadership warning against economic and espionage threats from China.
  • Authored cybersecurity legislation (CISPA) allowing intelligence sharing between public and private entities.

“And, I led the House Intelligence Committee to hunt down terrorists and keep Americans safe.”

06

Environment and Energy

medium salience

El-Sayed focuses on holding corporate polluters accountable to safeguard clean air and water, whereas Rogers emphasizes achieving energy independence by easing environmental regulations.

Democratic Abdul El-Sayed

Supports clean water, air, and polluter accountability

El-Sayed prioritizes environmental protection, clean drinking water, and holding corporate polluters accountable. He highlights his local executive record taking on industrial polluters and securing clean water initiatives.

  • Focuses on ensuring clean air, safe drinking water, and protecting natural resources.
  • Points to record holding corporate polluters accountable and protecting public health.

“He secured free glasses for kids, removed lead from schools, took on corporate polluters, and expanded Narcan access.”

Republican Mike Rogers

Supports energy independence and regulatory relief

Rogers advocates for achieving American energy independence by expanding domestic energy production and cutting federal regulations. He highlights his legislative record promoting energy growth and reducing EPA restrictions.

  • Promotes domestic energy development to achieve American energy independence.
  • Supports reducing EPA regulations and tax burdens on energy producers and employers.

“promoted American energy independence, reduced regulations and tax burdens”

07

Campaign Finance and Government Reform

medium salience

Democratic Abdul El-Sayed

Supports banning corporate money and ending gerrymandering

El-Sayed makes campaign finance reform a centerpiece of his campaign, refusing corporate PAC contributions. He supports constitutional amendments to ban corporate money in elections, overturn Citizens United, reform the Supreme Court, end gerrymandering, and eliminate the Senate filibuster.

  • Rejects corporate PAC money and advocates for banning corporate campaign contributions.
  • Supports Supreme Court reform and appointing justices who will overturn Citizens United.
  • Advocates for abolishing the Senate filibuster, ending gerrymandering, and increasing lobbying transparency.

“I believe the influence of corporate money in our politics is essentially corrupting.”

“I am committed to using Michigan’s voice in the US Senate to hold the government accountable to the people, and I am the only candidate in this race who has never and will never accept corporate contributions.”

Republican Mike Rogers No documented position in our sources

Polls 20

updated Sep 16
204060JUNJULAUGSEPEL-SAYED 46ROGERS 45

Source: RealClearPolling · Rogers vs. Stevens ↗ · Michigan Senate Rogers vs. El Sayed ↗ · Rogers vs. Mcmorrow ↗

Pollster Date Sample Result Spread
Trafalgar Group Sep 9 1079 LV Rogers 45% / El-Sayed 46% El-Sayed +1.0
CNN Sep 6 843 LV Rogers 44% / El-Sayed 47% El-Sayed +3.0
Detroit News/Glengariff Sep 3 600 LV Rogers 46% / El-Sayed 44% Rogers +2.0
EPIC-MRA Aug 28 600 LV Rogers 43% / El-Sayed 47% El-Sayed +4.0
Michigan State/YouGov Aug 20 779 LV Rogers 45% / El-Sayed 50% El-Sayed +5.0
Susquehanna Aug 17 800 LV Rogers 39% / El-Sayed 46% El-Sayed +7.0
Fabrizio/Anzalone Aug 11 877 LV Rogers 47% / El-Sayed 48% El-Sayed +1.0
TIPP Aug 10 1215 LV Rogers 42% / El-Sayed 45% El-Sayed +3.0
FOX News Aug 10 1006 RV Rogers 51% / El-Sayed 47% Rogers +4.0
EPIC-MRA Jul 31 600 LV Rogers 42% / Stevens 44% Stevens +2.0
EPIC-MRA Jul 31 600 LV Rogers 46% / El-Sayed 43% Rogers +3.0
MIRS/Mitchell Research Jul 29 672 LV Rogers 45% / El-Sayed 45%
MIRS/Mitchell Research Jul 29 672 LV Rogers 46% / Stevens 43% Rogers +3.0
Quantus Insights Jun 30 947 LV Rogers 44% / El-Sayed 45% El-Sayed +1.0
Quantus Insights Jun 30 947 LV Rogers 45% / McMorrow 44% Rogers +1.0
Quantus Insights Jun 30 947 LV Rogers 44% / Stevens 45% Stevens +1.0
TIPP May 23 1154 LV Rogers 42% / McMorrow 45% McMorrow +3.0
TIPP May 23 1154 LV Rogers 41% / Stevens 48% Stevens +7.0
TIPP May 23 1154 LV Rogers 42% / El-Sayed 43% El-Sayed +1.0
MIRS/Mitchell Research May 7 607 LV Rogers 43% / McMorrow 41% Rogers +2.0

Prediction markets 7

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 100.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0

Polymarket ↗

Michigan Senate Election Winner

61.5% Democrats
39.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 61.5REPUBLICANS 39.5

Polymarket ↗

Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 100.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0REPUBLICANS 0.0

Kalshi ↗

Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place

99.0% Haley Stevens
1.0% Mallory McMorrow
1.0% Abdul El-Sayed
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16STEVENS 99.0EL-SAYED 1.0MCMORROW 1.0

Kalshi ↗

Michigan Senate winner?

61.0% Abdul El-Sayed
39.0% Mike Rogers
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 68.0EL-SAYED 61.0ROGERS 39.0PARTY 34.0

Kalshi ↗

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

99.8% Abdul El-Sayed
0.3% Haley Stevens
0.1% Matt Sahr

+6 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16EL-SAYED 99.8STEVENS 0.3ANTHONY 0.1RIVET 0.1NESSEL 0.1LEVIN 0.1TLAIB 0.1MCMORROW 0.1SAHR 0.1

Kalshi ↗

Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

63.0% Abdul El-Sayed
39.0% Mike Rogers
1.0% Mallory McMorrow

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16EL-SAYED 63.0ROGERS 39.0STEVENS 1.0MCMORROW 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.