Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Maine Toss-up

Maine Senate race

Portrait of Troy Dale Jackson

Democrat

Troy Dale Jackson

Portrait of Susan Collins

Republican

Susan Collins

The 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election features incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins against Democratic nominee Troy Dale Jackson, who was selected at a July 2026 nominating convention after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew following sexual assault allegations. Jackson, a logger and former Maine Senate President, is running an economic populist campaign centered on working-class issues and institutional reform. Collins emphasizes her long Senate tenure and influential position as Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
68.5%
Republicans
31.5%
Kalshi ↗
Troy Dale Jackson
69.0%
Susan Collins
33.0%

All 4 polls → All markets →

01

Economy and Taxes

high salience

Jackson proposes raising taxes on corporations and billionaires to aid working-class families, whereas Collins focuses on using her Appropriations Committee chairmanship to direct federal spending to Maine.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports taxing billionaires and corporations

Jackson runs an economic populist campaign focused on relief for working families. He advocates for higher taxes on billionaires and large corporations to fund working-class tax cuts and public services.

  • Tax the billionaires and greedy corporations
  • Deliver tax cuts for the working class
  • Promote a working-class movement against a rigged economic system

“Working people are getting crushed while billionaires and corporations buy power in Washington. I’ve spent my life fighting that same rigged system—from the logging woods to the Maine Senate.”

Republican Susan Collins

Focuses on federal funding delivery

Collins emphasizes her seniority and leadership as Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee to secure federal funding for infrastructure, defense, and job training in Maine. In 2025, she supported the No Tax on Tips Act by unanimous consent and voted against the H.R.1 reconciliation bill.

  • Leverages role as Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman to direct federal investment to Maine
  • Supported No Tax on Tips Act (S.129) by unanimous consent in 2025
  • Voted Nay on H.R.1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) reconciliation bill

“This committee decides how federal dollars are spent each year, from national defense and infrastructure to medical research, education, and public safety. Susan’s position gives Maine an outsized voice at the table when critical decisions are made which allows her to deliver serious results for Maine.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Jackson advocates replacing the private insurance system with Medicare for All, while Collins supports targeted reforms such as permanent telehealth flexibilities and increased medical research funding.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports Medicare for All

Jackson supports enacting Medicare for All to eliminate out-of-pocket healthcare expenses like premiums and deductibles. He also supports direct negotiation to lower prescription drug costs.

  • Pass Medicare for All to eliminate premiums, deductibles, and medical debt
  • Lower the cost of prescription drugs
  • End private insurance corporation authority to deny care

“I will vote for Medicare for All so every American can receive the care they need without premiums, deductibles, medical debt or fear of bankruptcy.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supports expanding rural healthcare access

Collins focuses on practical healthcare improvements, particularly expanding rural access, making Medicare telehealth flexibilities permanent, and funding research for Alzheimer's and diabetes.

  • Authored the Kay Hagan Tick Reauthorization Act signed into law in 2026
  • Led efforts to make Medicare telehealth flexibilities permanent
  • Founded the Senate Diabetes Caucus and co-chairs the Congressional Alzheimer's Task Force

“She has led efforts to expand access to care including legislation to make key telehealth flexibilities permanent through Medicare so patients can connect with providers from home, reducing barriers for patients and providers.”

03

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience

Jackson calls to dismantle ICE and shift immigration duties to a civilian agency, whereas Collins voted for the Laken Riley Act requiring DHS to detain certain undocumented immigrants.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports abolishing ICE

Jackson advocates for dismantling ICE and transferring immigration management to a civilian agency focused on due process and family unity. He supports comprehensive immigration reform while leaving cross-border criminal law enforcement to federal agencies.

  • Dismantle and abolish ICE
  • Create a humane civilian agency for immigration services that respects due process
  • Pass comprehensive immigration reform and end masked raids and detention quotas

“Immigration services should be handled by a humane, civilian agency that respects due process and keeps families together; serious cross-border crime can be investigated by accountable federal law enforcement.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supports stricter enforcement laws

Collins supports enforcement measures to hold undocumented immigrants accountable when charged with crimes and voted to compel federal detentions.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring DHS to detain certain undocumented immigrants arrested for theft crimes and enabling state lawsuits against federal enforcement failures
04

Foreign Policy and Israel-Gaza

medium salience

Jackson opposes U.S. military aid to Israel and calls to end the conflict in Gaza, while Collins is endorsed by AIPAC and supports traditional U.S.-Israel defense ties.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Opposes military aid to Israel

Jackson calls for an immediate end to the conflict in Gaza and demands a full stop to U.S. military aid to Israel.

  • End the genocide in Gaza
  • Prohibit U.S. tax dollars from funding Israel's military

“End the genocide in Gaza. No U.S. tax dollars to Israel’s military.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supports alliance with Israel

Collins maintains a pro-Israel foreign policy stance and is endorsed by major pro-Israel advocacy organizations.

  • Endorsed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)
05

Civil Rights and LGBTQ+ Issues

medium salience

Jackson supports passing federal civil rights legislation protecting LGBTQ+ individuals, while Collins signed a Maine initiative petition to limit transgender student access in school sports.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports expanded LGBTQ+ protections

Jackson advocates for comprehensive federal civil rights legislation to shield LGBTQ+ individuals from discrimination.

  • Pass comprehensive civil rights legislation protecting the LGBTQ+ community from discrimination

“Pass comprehensive civil rights legislation protecting the LGBTQ+ community from discrimination.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supported by Log Cabin Republicans

Collins is endorsed by LGBTQ+ Republican groups but signed a state petition seeking to restrict transgender students' access to school sports facilities based on birth sex.

  • Endorsed by Log Cabin Republicans
  • Signed petition supporting Maine Birth Certificate Sex Requirement for Public School Sports Initiative (2026)
06

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

high salience

Jackson commits to passing a statutory federal right to abortion, whereas Collins' campaign materials in the provided sources do not articulate an abortion platform line, though Democrats attack her judicial vote record.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports federal abortion rights

Jackson advocates for passing federal legislation to establish a nationwide statutory right to abortion.

  • Pass a federal right to abortion

“Pass a federal right to abortion.”

Republican Susan Collins No documented position in our sources
07

Government Reform and Ethics

low salience

Jackson proposes banning congressional stock trading and overturning Citizens United, whereas Collins' campaign platform in the sources does not list specific government reform measures.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports congressional stock trading ban

Jackson promotes campaign finance and political ethics reform aimed at curbing the power of money in Washington.

  • Ban members of Congress from trading stock
  • Overturn Citizens United and eliminate dark money in politics
  • Protect voting and union organizing rights for all Americans

“Ban members of Congress from trading stock.”

Republican Susan Collins No documented position in our sources
08

Senior Issues and Social Security

low salience

Collins highlights her authorship of the 2025 Social Security Fairness Act, while Jackson's platform in the provided sources does not highlight a specific Social Security initiative.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson No documented position in our sources

Republican Susan Collins

Supports protecting Social Security

Collins highlights her legislative record on senior issues and entitlement protection, including authoring the Social Security Fairness Act.

  • Authored the Social Security Fairness Act signed into law in 2025
  • Former Chairman of the Senate Special Committee on Aging

“As the author of the Social Security Fairness Act which was signed into law in 2025, Susan is the leader in the Senate for Social Security.”

Polls 4

updated Oct 31

Source: RealClearPolling · Collins vs. Platner ↗

Pollster Date Sample Result Spread
FOX News Jun 27 1003 RV Platner 47% / Susan Collins 50% Collins +3.0
NY Times/Siena Jun 26 608 LV Platner 49% / Susan Collins 47% Platner +2.0
Next Up/Wick Jun 14 1008 LV Platner 48% / Susan Collins 45% Platner +3.0
Quantus Insights Jun 11 870 LV Platner 46% / Susan Collins 45% Platner +1.0

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

Maine Senate Election Winner

68.5% Democrats
31.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 68.5REPUBLICANS 31.5

Kalshi ↗

Maine Senate winner?

69.0% Troy Dale Jackson
33.0% Susan Collins
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31JACKSON 69.0COLLINS 33.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.