Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Maine Toss-up

Maine — U.S. Senate

Portrait of Troy Dale Jackson

Democrat

Troy Dale Jackson

Portrait of Susan Collins

Republican

Susan Collins

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine features incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins facing Democratic nominee Troy Dale Jackson, former President of the Maine State Senate. Jackson became the Democratic candidate after original primary winner Graham Platner withdrew in July 2026 following sexual assault allegations. The race hinges on whether Jackson's economic populist platform and shared Aroostook County roots can challenge Collins' 29-year Senate tenure, chairing of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and bipartisan record. Major election handicappers including The Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as a Toss-up, while Inside Elections rates it Tilt Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
70.5%
Republicans
30.5%
Kalshi ↗
Troy Dale Jackson
66.0%
Susan Collins
35.0%

All 4 polls → All markets →

01

Economy and Taxes

high salience

Jackson advocates taxing billionaires and corporations to fund working-class tax relief, whereas Collins emphasizes her Appropriations Committee chair leadership in securing federal workforce funding and tax relief for small businesses.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports economic populism and working-class tax relief

Jackson runs on an economic populist platform focused on dismantling a system he views as rigged against working people. He advocates for tax cuts for working-class families alongside tax increases on billionaires and major corporations.

  • Proposes tax cuts aimed directly at working-class families.
  • Calls for higher taxes on billionaires and large corporations to ensure they pay their fair share.
  • Pledges to challenge corporate and billionaire influence in Washington policy.

“Working people are getting crushed while billionaires and corporations buy power in Washington. I’ve spent my life fighting that same rigged system—from the logging woods to the Maine Senate.”

“Tax the billionaires and make sure greedy corporations pay their fair share.”

“Deliver tax cuts for the working class.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supports workforce development and tax relief

Collins emphasizes her record as Senate Appropriations Chair in delivering federal funding for Maine infrastructure and workforce development. She supports targeted tax relief and cutting red tape to spur economic growth.

  • Leverages Appropriations Committee position to secure federal funding for workforce development and training programs.
  • Authored the Paycheck Protection Program legislation that saved 250,000 Maine jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Voted in favor of the No Tax on Tips Act (S.129) tax deduction.
  • Voted against reconciliation bill H.R.1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) and budget resolution H.Con.Res.14.

“As Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Susan has secured millions of dollars in federal investments for workforce development and training programs.”

“This committee decides how federal dollars are spent each year, from national defense and infrastructure to medical research, education, and public safety. Susan’s position gives Maine an outsized voice at the table when critical decisions are made which allows her to deliver serious results for Maine.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Jackson champions single-payer Medicare for All and direct drug price negotiations, while Collins advocates incremental bipartisan reforms focused on rural care, telehealth, and research funding.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports Medicare for All and lower drug prices

Jackson advocates for a universal Medicare for All healthcare system that eliminates premiums, deductibles, and medical debt. He also favors federal negotiation of prescription drug prices and curtailing insurance company coverage denials.

  • Supports passing federal Medicare for All legislation.
  • Advocates allowing government negotiation of prescription drug costs.
  • Proposes ending health insurance companies' ability to deny care for profit.

“Pass Medicare for all.”

“I will vote for Medicare for All so every American can receive the care they need without premiums, deductibles, medical debt or fear of bankruptcy.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supports targeted health reforms and telehealth expansion

Collins promotes bipartisan legislation expanding rural healthcare access and permanent telehealth flexibility under Medicare. She highlights her work on biomedical research for diabetes and Alzheimer's disease.

  • Passed legislation making Medicare telehealth flexibilities permanent for remote care.
  • Founded the Senate Diabetes Caucus, tripling federal diabetes research spending.
  • Co-chairs the Congressional Alzheimer's Task Force pushing for expanded research funding.
  • Voted against S.2882, which would have extended expanded premium tax credits for health insurance.

“She has led efforts to expand access to care including legislation to make key telehealth flexibilities permanent through Medicare so patients can connect with providers from home, reducing barriers for patients and providers.”

03

Border Security and Immigration

high salience

Jackson advocates dismantling ICE in favor of a humane civilian agency, whereas Collins voted for mandatory immigration detention legislation like the Laken Riley Act.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports abolishing ICE and humane immigration reform

Jackson supports dismantling U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and shifting immigration management to a civilian agency. He supports comprehensive immigration reform focusing on due process and family unity.

  • Calls to dismantle and abolish U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
  • Proposes transferring immigration services to a civilian agency respecting due process.
  • Opposes masked immigration raids and federal detention quotas.

“Dismantle and abolish ICE.”

“Immigration services should be handled by a humane, civilian agency that respects due process and keeps families together; serious cross-border crime can be investigated by accountable federal law enforcement.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supports stricter enforcement and border legislation

Collins supports stricter border enforcement laws and mandatory detention of undocumented immigrants accused of property crimes. Her record includes past leadership on the Senate Homeland Security Committee.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for theft crimes and allowing state lawsuits against federal enforcement failures.
  • Leverages experience as former Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Homeland Security Committee.
04

Abortion and Judicial Appointments

high salience

Jackson pledges to vote for a federal statutory right to abortion, while Democrats attack Collins over her confirmation votes for conservative federal judges.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports federal right to abortion

Jackson supports codifying abortion access nationally through federal legislation guaranteeing reproductive rights.

  • Advocates passing a federal right to abortion.

“Pass a federal right to abortion.”

Republican Susan Collins

Faced criticism over judicial confirmation votes

Collins' record on reproductive rights is drawn largely from opponent attacks regarding her votes confirming conservative federal judicial nominees, though she maintains a reputation as a moderate Republican.

  • Confirmed judicial appointments during the Trump administration.
  • Signed a petition supporting the Maine Birth Certificate Sex Requirement for Public School Sports Initiative (2026).

“a 'rubber stamp' for President Donald Trump, whose judicial appointments are taking rights away from women”

05

Foreign Policy and Israel/Gaza

medium salience

Jackson demands an end to U.S. military funding for Israel, whereas Collins is endorsed by AIPAC and supports traditional security funding.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Opposes U.S. military aid to Israel

Jackson calls for ending military aid to Israel and stopping the war in Gaza, opposing U.S. tax dollar expenditures on foreign military operations there.

  • Calls for an immediate end to the military action in Gaza.
  • Opposes allocating U.S. tax dollars to Israel's military.

“End the genocide in Gaza. No U.S. tax dollars to Israel's military.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supports U.S. alliance with Israel

Collins maintains support for key strategic foreign alliances and foreign intelligence oversight through her committee assignments, earning endorsement from AIPAC.

  • Endorsed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
  • Serves on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and ex officio on the Foreign Operations Appropriations Subcommittee.
06

Government Ethics and Democracy

medium salience

Jackson focuses on campaign finance reform and banning congressional stock trading, while Collins highlights her record of perfect voting attendance and legislative bipartisanship.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports banning stock trading and dark money

Jackson champions government ethics reform, advocating for stock trading bans on members of Congress, overturning Citizens United, and protecting voting rights.

  • Proposes banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks.
  • Calls for overturning Citizens United to eliminate dark money from campaign finance.
  • Opposed Maine Question 1 (2025 voter ID and absentee ballot initiative).

“Ban members of Congress from trading stock.”

“Overturn Citizens United and get dark money out of politics.”

Republican Susan Collins

Emphasizes bipartisan attendance and transparency

Collins highlights her governance record, voting attendance without missing a roll call in nearly 30 years, and commitment to government transparency legislation.

  • Cites perfect attendance record of over 9,800 consecutive roll-call votes.
  • Supported the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R.4405) passed by unanimous consent.
  • Consistently ranked among the most bipartisan members of the U.S. Senate.

“Since taking office, Susan has cast more than 9,800 consecutive roll-call votes without ever missing a single one.”

07

LGBTQ+ Rights

medium salience

Jackson supports federal LGBTQ+ civil rights protection legislation, while Collins signed a petition seeking to restrict transgender students' access to school sports facilities.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Supports federal LGBTQ+ anti-discrimination laws

Jackson supports passing federal civil rights protections ensuring equal treatment and anti-discrimination rights for LGBTQ+ individuals.

  • Advocates passing federal civil rights legislation protecting the LGBTQ+ community.

“Pass comprehensive civil rights legislation protecting the LGBTQ+ community from discrimination.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supported by Log Cabin Republicans; signed sports petition

Collins receives support from LGBTQ+ Republican groups while also backing restrictions on transgender student participation in public school sports.

  • Endorsed by the Log Cabin Republicans.
  • Signed a petition supporting the Maine Birth Certificate Sex Requirement for Public School Sports Initiative (2026).
08

Seniors and Social Security

medium salience

Jackson relies on endorsements from senior worker groups, whereas Collins highlights authoring the Social Security Fairness Act signed into law in 2025.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Endorsed by retiree advocate groups

Jackson aligns with retiree advocacy organizations to champion working-class retirement security and benefit protections.

  • Endorsed by the Maine Alliance for Retired Americans.

Republican Susan Collins

Authored Social Security Fairness Act

Collins emphasizes her leadership on senior issues as former Special Committee on Aging Chair and her authorship of the Social Security Fairness Act.

  • Authored the Social Security Fairness Act enacted in 2025 benefiting 25,000 Maine retirees.
  • Prioritizes retirement security, fraud protection, and Alzheimer's research as Aging Committee leader.

“As the author of the Social Security Fairness Act which was signed into law in 2025, Susan is the leader in the Senate for Social Security.”

09

Defense and Military Spending

medium salience

Jackson calls for restricting foreign military funding, while Collins leverages her committee post to secure federal defense appropriations for Maine shipyards and contractors.

Democratic Troy Dale Jackson

Opposes foreign military expenditure

Jackson prioritizes domestic working-class investment over foreign military spending, pledging to block U.S. tax dollars from funding Israel's military.

  • Pledges to withhold U.S. tax dollars from foreign military aid to Israel.

“No U.S. tax dollars to Israel's military.”

Republican Susan Collins

Supports defense authorizations and Maine defense jobs

Collins uses her Appropriations Committee position to direct funding toward national defense projects and Maine defense employers like Bath Iron Works and Portsmouth Naval Shipyard.

  • Voted Yea on the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 (S.2296) and Fiscal Year 2024 (H.R. 2670).
  • Secured funding provisions supporting Bath Iron Works, Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, Pratt & Whitney, and Saco Defense.

“Senator Collins has fought for, and secured, provisions in annual defense authorization and funding bills that support work at Bath Iron Works, Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, the University of Maine, Saco Defense, Pratt & Whitney, and other companies important to the Maine economy.”

Polls 4

updated Sep 16

Source: RealClearPolling · Collins vs. Platner ↗

Pollster Date Sample Result Spread
FOX News Jun 27 1003 RV Platner 47% / Susan Collins 50% Collins +3.0
NY Times/Siena Jun 26 608 LV Platner 49% / Susan Collins 47% Platner +2.0
Next Up/Wick Jun 14 1008 LV Platner 48% / Susan Collins 45% Platner +3.0
Quantus Insights Jun 11 870 LV Platner 46% / Susan Collins 45% Platner +1.0

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Maine Senate Election Winner

70.5% Democrats
30.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 70.5REPUBLICANS 30.5

Kalshi ↗

Maine Senate winner?

66.0% Troy Dale Jackson
35.0% Susan Collins
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16JACKSON 66.0COLLINS 35.0

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