Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Kansas Likely R

Kansas — U.S. Senate

Portrait of Roger Marshall

Republican

Roger Marshall

The 2026 U.S. Senate race in Kansas features incumbent Republican Roger Marshall running for re-election against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a pastor and church founder. The election hinges on voter sentiment regarding economic affordability, healthcare access, agricultural policy, and federal spending. Major rating outlets designate the race as Solid Republican or Safe Republican, with DDHQ/The Hill rating it Likely Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
74.5%
Democrats
25.5%
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100.0%
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Kalshi ↗
Roger Marshall
76.0%
Adam Hamilton
25.0%
Kalshi ↗
Adam Hamilton
99.0%
Noah Taylor
1.1%
Anne Parelkar
1.0%
Mark Holland
0.1%
Laura Kelly
0.1%
Erik Murray
0.1%
Michael Soetaert
0.1%
Christy Davis
0.1%
Patrick Schmidt
0.1%
Sharice Davids
0.1%
Sandy Spidel Neumann
0.1%

All markets →

01

Cost of living

high salience

Hamilton attributes high prices to tariffs, corporate price collusion, and federal spending cuts, whereas Marshall blames federal regulation and inflation while promoting tax relief and spending restraint.

Democratic Adam Hamilton

Lowering costs by tackling tariffs and price-gouging

Hamilton emphasizes an affordability agenda focused on reducing everyday costs for Kansas families. He proposes eliminating broad tariffs, stopping landlord and grocery price collusion, and expanding housing tax credits.

  • Require congressional approval before imposing new tariffs to prevent price increases on groceries, equipment, and housing.
  • Ban algorithmic price-fixing by landlords and grocery chains.
  • Create tax credits for first-time home buyers and public servants like teachers, police, and firefighters.

“Affordability. Kansans are working hard, but too many families are falling behind.”

“When Washington imposes sweeping tariff taxes without a vote, the bill lands on Kansas farmers, manufacturers, and families in the form of higher prices on everything from equipment and fertilizer to groceries.”

Republican Roger Marshall

Cutting taxes and reducing government regulation

Marshall advocates for free-market economic growth through reduced government intervention, deregulation, and lower taxes. He supported making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent and exempting tips from federal income taxes.

  • Voted for H.R.1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) to address debt limit and tax policy.
  • Cosponsored the No Tax on Tips Act to allow deductions on tip income.
  • Supported extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act tax cuts for working families.

“The less control the federal government has, the better off we will be.”

“A $4 gallon of milk is a kitchen-table problem, not an abstraction.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Hamilton seeks to expand Medicare negotiations and reverse federal Medicaid cuts to support rural hospitals, whereas Marshall advocates replacing the Affordable Care Act with market-driven reforms while tackling Medicare prior-authorization delays.

Democratic Adam Hamilton

Expanding public coverage and lowering prescription costs

Hamilton focuses on protecting rural hospitals and lowering out-of-pocket medical costs. He advocates for reversing Medicaid cuts, expanding Medicare drug price negotiations to private insurance, and placing caps on medical debt interest and wage garnishment.

  • Reverse projected federal Medicaid cuts to preserve funding for KanCare and rural hospitals.
  • Expand Medicare prescription drug price negotiation to cover private health plans.
  • Limit wage garnishment and cap interest rates on unpaid medical debt.

“We must reverse the disastrous cuts to Medicaid that threaten our rural hospitals.”

“Nearly 80% of Kansans are worried about being able to afford health care in the future, and nearly three-quarters say they skipped care in the past year because of the cost.”

Republican Roger Marshall

Repealing government coverage mandates and improving transparency

Marshall, an OB-GYN physician, opposes government-controlled healthcare systems like the ACA while advocating for patient choice, price transparency, and prior-authorization reform. He sponsored bills capping prior-authorization delays for seniors and improving Medicare Advantage oversight.

  • Lead sponsor of the Improving Seniors' Timely Access to Care Act (S. 1816) to cap Medicare prior-authorization decision times.
  • Voted to repeal the ACA individual mandate, Cadillac tax, and medical device tax.
  • Sponsored the Patients Deserve Price Tags Act (S. 2355) to enforce healthcare price transparency.

“For health care delivery to thrive in America and rural Kansas, we must repeal and replace these broken systems.”

“82 of Kansas's 124 hospitals are Critical Access. We protect them.”

03

Agriculture

high salience

Hamilton prioritizes removing trade tariffs, expanding export promotion funding, and passing a long-term farm bill, while Marshall focuses on phosphate fertilizer cost relief, Ogallala Aquifer sustainability, and work requirements for food assistance.

Democratic Adam Hamilton

Expanding agricultural exports and farm labor reforms

Hamilton emphasizes stability for Kansas agricultural producers through free trade, disease control funding, and workforce reform. He supports passing a five-year farm bill, expanding H-2A guest-worker visas, and expanding USDA export promotion programs.

  • Double funding for USDA export promotion programs to generate agricultural trade.
  • Reform the H-2A guest-worker program to offer year-round visas and legal status pathways.
  • Supercharge domestic fertilizer production to reduce input costs caused by foreign conflicts.

“Farmers in Kansas are being hit hard from all sides –hundreds of farms closed last year, in large part because tariffs drove up the cost of equipment and hurt exports of Kansas products.”

“Congress needs to finish the job and give agriculture five years of certainty.”

Republican Roger Marshall

Reducing input costs and protecting water infrastructure

Marshall targets regulatory burdens on Kansas producers, securing input cost relief and water conservation resources. He introduced legislation providing phosphate fertilizer relief, supported interstate state-inspected beef sales, and championed Ogallala Aquifer preservation.

  • Introduced the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act (S. 4418) for phosphate fertilizer relief.
  • Supported EQIP Water Conservation Act (S. 2696) to mitigate Ogallala Aquifer decline.
  • Advocated for crop insurance and SNAP work requirements in farm legislation.

“Agriculture is the lifeblood of Kansas, and we Kansans know our land better than federal bureaucrats.”

“The aquifer under Kansas wheat country is dropping more than a foot a year.”

04

Energy

medium salience

Hamilton advocates an all-of-the-above energy strategy with clean energy tax credits and ratepayer protections for data centers, whereas Marshall champions traditional fossil fuels, wind, and ethanol deregulation alongside repealing EPA methane fees.

Democratic Adam Hamilton

Supporting all-of-the-above energy with ratepayer protections

Hamilton advocates protecting domestic energy production tax credits and enforcing competitive bidding on transmission projects. He also calls for binding rules requiring AI data centers to cover their electricity infrastructure costs.

  • Restore energy production tax credits to protect clean energy jobs and investment.
  • Require binding rules so AI data centers cover their own electricity costs rather than passing costs to consumers.
  • Enforce competitive bidding processes on large power transmission lines.

“We need a comprehensive, all of the above strategy that creates jobs and increases energy independence while bringing down costs for consumers today.”

Republican Roger Marshall

Deregulating domestic oil, gas, and renewable fuels

Marshall promotes an energy policy based on expanding domestic oil, natural gas, wind, and ethanol production. He cosponsored legislation for year-round E15 fuel sales, supported repealing natural gas taxes, and voted to nullify EPA methane-fee regulations.

  • Cosponsored the Nationwide Consumer & Fuel Retailer Choice Act (S. 593) for year-round E15 ethanol.
  • Cosponsored H.J.Res. 35 to void the EPA methane-fee rule.
  • Cosponsored the Natural Gas Tax Repeal Act (S. 143).

“Oil, gas, wind, and Kansas-grown ethanol — no apologies for any of them.”

05

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Hamilton supports codifying abortion rights and contraception access into federal law, while Marshall is staunchly pro-life and supports federal restrictions on abortion procedures and defunding Planned Parenthood.

Democratic Adam Hamilton

Codifying federal abortion and contraception protections

Hamilton supports protecting reproductive freedom against government intervention. He advocates codifying abortion access and contraception protections into federal law while requiring insurance coverage for over-the-counter birth control.

  • Codify a woman's right to choose into federal law.
  • Protect access to contraception and mandate insurance coverage for non-prescription birth control.

“Protect a woman’s right to choose and prevent further government interference into personal decisions by codifying the access to contraception into law.”

Republican Roger Marshall

Opposing taxpayer-funded abortion and restricting procedures

Marshall, who delivered over 5,000 babies as an OB-GYN, believes life begins at conception. He has cosponsored federal legislation to eliminate taxpayer funding for abortion, defund Planned Parenthood, and ban abortion after 20 weeks.

  • Co-sponsored the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act and Heartbeat Bill.
  • Supported the 2022 Kansas constitutional amendment to regulate abortion.
  • Voted Nay on the Right to IVF Act (S. 4445).

“Doc committed his professional life to bringing life into this world, and he knows a child is a living creation of God from the moment of conception.”

“I will never waiver in my support for life in Congress.”

06

Immigration & Border Security

medium salience

Hamilton prioritizes agricultural workforce stabilization through guest-worker visa reforms, while Marshall advocates physical border wall construction, strict border enforcement, and mandatory detention laws.

Democratic Adam Hamilton

Reforming guest-worker programs and legal workforce pathways

Hamilton addresses immigration primarily through an economic lens, calling for overhaul of the H-2A guest-worker program to support Kansas agricultural producers. He supports year-round visas and legal status pathways for existing workers.

  • Permit year-round H-2A visas for agricultural workers on farms and dairies.
  • Provide legal status pathways for existing agricultural workers.

“Congress must reform the broken H-2A guest-worker program — permitting year-round visas that reflect modern needs, lowering compliance costs, and giving existing workers a path to legal status.”

Republican Roger Marshall

Enforcing strict border security and mandatory detention

Marshall views southern border security as a vital national security priority. He advocates completing the border wall, ending legal magnets for illegal entry, and mandating detention for undocumented immigrants arrested for property crimes.

  • Cosponsored the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring detention of illegal immigrants arrested for theft or burglary.
  • Cosponsored the Build the Wall Act (S. 42).
  • Voted Nay on the bipartisan Border Act of 2024.

“I know it is a crisis, and President Trump is right: we must build a wall and fix our broken immigration system, and we have to turn off the magnets that attract, promote, encourage and allow migrants to enter our country under false pretenses.”

07

Government Reform & Ethics

low salience

Hamilton promotes institutional reform through stock trading bans, term/age limits, and shutdown pay freezes, whereas Marshall has backed selective transparency measures while taking controversial votes on electoral certification.

Democratic Adam Hamilton

Banning congressional stock trading and enacting term limits

Hamilton puts government reform at the center of his campaign ethics platform. He calls for banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks or crypto, instituting 18-year term limits and age caps across all three branches, and withholding congressional pay during shutdowns.

  • Ban stock, cryptocurrency, and prediction market trading for members of Congress.
  • Enact 18-year term limits and age limits for Congress and the Supreme Court.
  • Withhold member pay during federal government shutdowns.

“It’s time for term limits and age limits for all three branches of government.”

“Prohibit members of Congress and their households from buying or selling individual stocks while in office.”

Republican Roger Marshall

Supporting select transparency and election integrity measures

Marshall supported the Epstein Files Transparency Act passed by unanimous consent. On election administration, he voted against certifying the 2020 electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania.

  • Allowed unanimous consent passage of the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405).
  • Voted against certifying 2020 electoral vote results for Arizona and Pennsylvania.

“The bill was passed with unanimous consent in the Senate, avoiding the three-fifths majority vote requirement.”

08

Defense & Veterans Affairs

low salience
Democratic Adam Hamilton No documented position in our sources

Republican Roger Marshall

Funding Kansas defense infrastructure and expanding veterans' healthcare

Marshall prioritizes national defense funding, military facility upgrades at Fort Riley, and support for Kansas aerospace manufacturing. He also supported major veteran healthcare expansion legislation such as the PACT Act.

  • Supported NDAA FY2026 funding for Fort Riley ATC tower and training infrastructure.
  • Cosponsored Supporting Veterans in STEM Careers Act (signed into law in 2020).
  • Voted Yea on the PACT Act in 2022 to expand toxic exposure benefits.

“We must get our federal government back to its core functions – chief among them is national defense.”

“Supporting Veterans in STEM Careers Act — signed into law.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Kansas Senate Election Winner

74.5% Republicans
25.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 74.5DEMOCRATS 25.5

Polymarket ↗

Kansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner

100.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 100.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0DEMOCRATS 0.0

Kalshi ↗

Kansas Senate winner?

76.0% Roger Marshall
25.0% Adam Hamilton
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MARSHALL 76.0HAMILTON 25.0PARTY 16.0PARTY 0.0

Kalshi ↗

Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?

99.0% Adam Hamilton
1.1% Noah Taylor
1.0% Anne Parelkar

+8 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16HAMILTON 99.0TAYLOR 1.1PARELKAR 1.0MURRAY 0.1NEUMANN 0.1SOETAERT 0.1DAVIDS 0.1SCHMIDT 0.1DAVIS 0.1KELLY 0.1HOLLAND 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.