Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Iowa Lean R

Iowa — U.S. Senate

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa is an open-seat race to replace retiring Republican incumbent Joni Ernst, featuring Democratic State Representative Josh Turek and Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson. Political forecasters rate the race between Toss-up and Lean/Tilt Republican, as Democrats aim to shift the state's political tides following recent GOP statewide dominance. The matchup hinges on cost of living, healthcare, agricultural tariffs and regulation, government ethics, and reproductive rights. Both candidates bring distinct legislative records from the statehouse and federal levels to a high-stakes contest that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
57.5%
Democrats
40.5%
Kalshi ↗
Ashley Hinson
62.0%
Josh Turek
39.0%
Kalshi ↗
Ashley Hinson
63.0%
Josh Turek
41.0%
Zach Wahls
1.0%
Rasmussen Reports ↗ Sep 10 · Turek +5.0 · via RCP
Josh Turek
45%
Ashley Hinson
40%

All 8 polls → All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Turek emphasizes federal price gouging bans, minimum wage hikes, and taxing billionaires, whereas Hinson focuses on permanent tax cuts, spending reductions, and tax-deferred savings programs.

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports working-class relief and corporate accountability

Turek advocates for middle-class tax cuts, minimum wage increases tied to inflation, and federal bans on food price gouging. He proposes banning Wall Street private equity firms from buying single-family homes to restore housing affordability for working families.

  • Impose a federal ban on price gouging on food so Iowans pay less at the grocery store.
  • Raise the minimum wage and pass legislation tying regular raises to inflation.
  • Ban Wall Street private equity firms from purchasing single-family homes and farmland.
  • Cut taxes for the middle class and close tax loopholes for billionaires and big corporations.

“Josh is committed to shaping economic policy decisions that benefit the middle class and workers rather than Wall Street and billionaire donors.”

“Life is harder for working class people because Washington is riddled with corrupt politicians who are out of touch and focused on enriching themselves.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports tax cuts and spending reductions

Hinson emphasizes lower taxes for working families, cutting wasteful federal spending, and pro-growth economic policies. She supports tax-deferred savings accounts for first-time homebuyers and restricting institutional investors from buying single-family homes.

  • Allow first-time homebuyers to save tax-free for down payments through the First Home Savings Opportunity Act.
  • Ensure large institutional investors cannot buy up single-family homes in Iowa neighborhoods.
  • Make child care more affordable by expanding tax relief for working families and supporting parents with non-traditional hours.
  • Make life more affordable by cutting wasteful spending and lowering inflation.

“Ashley has always believed it is YOUR money, not the government’s money.”

“Ashley Hinson passed President Trump's working families tax cuts and delivered the largest tax cuts in history.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Turek advocates for a public option and full Medicaid restoration, while Hinson focuses on market competition, PBM accountability, and rural hospital support.

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports public option and Medicaid protection

Turek views healthcare as a human right, advocating for a public insurance option and the protection of Medicaid and ACA subsidies. He seeks to cap prescription drug costs, expand Medicare price negotiations, and restrict private equity ownership of healthcare facilities.

  • Restore full funding for Medicaid for the 110,000 Iowans at risk from federal budget cuts.
  • Introduce a public option so every Iowan has access to health care.
  • Protect and expand the Affordable Care Act for Iowans relying on ACA subsidies.
  • Cap costs on prescription drug prices and insulin at $25 per month.

“Health care is a human right. All Americans deserve access to basic care.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports market competition and rural access

Hinson promotes patient-centered healthcare solutions, expanding healthcare access in rural communities, and lowering prescription drug costs by holding pharmacy benefit managers accountable. She also champions expanding over-the-counter access to birth control.

  • Lower prescription drug costs by increasing transparency and holding pharmacy benefit managers accountable.
  • Expand over-the-counter birth control access.
  • Strengthen rural healthcare by supporting community hospitals and expanding the rural health workforce.
  • Expand maternal healthcare access, support cancer research, and expand preventive care.

“No matter where you live in Iowa, you should be able to access quality healthcare without driving hours or worrying about the cost.”

03

Agriculture and rural economy

high salience

Turek opposes tariffs and seeks to break up agribusiness monopolies, whereas Hinson emphasizes rolling back federal regulations, fighting state-level trade restrictions like Prop 12, and supporting biofuels.

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports prairie populism and antitrust enforcement

Turek opposes chaotic federal tariffs that threaten Iowa farms and calls for breaking up agribusiness monopolies. He supports federal Right to Repair legislation, mandatory country-of-origin labeling, and banning private equity firm purchases of farmland.

  • Pass a federal Farm Bill and mandate that Congress remain in session if a Farm Bill is set to expire without passage.
  • Pass a federal Right to Repair law for farm equipment.
  • End chaotic tariffs that threaten a 1980s-style farm crisis in Iowa.
  • Crack down on monopolies in agribusiness and meatpacking and ban private equity from purchasing farmland.

“Iowa’s farmers are the best in the world. It’s time we fight for them.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports regulatory relief and biofuel expansion

Hinson focuses on shielding family farms from federal regulations, passing a federal Farm Bill, and expanding export markets. She champions year-round E15 sales and biofuels to keep Iowa at the forefront of domestic energy.

  • Protect family farms by pushing back against burdensome regulations and voluntary conservation program burdens.
  • Fight policies like California's Proposition 12 that hurt Iowa livestock producers.
  • Pass a Farm Bill and expand agricultural export markets.
  • Champion year-round E15 and strengthen biofuels.

“Agriculture is the lifeblood of Iowa’s economy.”

04

Border security and immigration

medium salience

Turek pairs border enforcement with an earned path to citizenship and ICE accountability, while Hinson focuses strictly on border security, deporting illegal immigrants, and law enforcement.

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports bipartisan border security and earned citizenship

Turek advocates for a functional immigration system that combines border enforcement with a simplified, earned pathway to citizenship. He supports deporting illegal immigrants who commit crimes, stopping fentanyl trafficking, and increasing ICE accountability.

  • Pass bipartisan immigration legislation that strengthens borders and simplifies an earned pathway to citizenship.
  • Secure the border and deport individuals who come illegally and commit crimes.
  • Stop fentanyl from crossing the border.
  • Ensure regulation and accountability for ICE agents.

“Our immigration system is broken because politicians in Washington refuse to work across the aisle to fix it.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports strict border enforcement and deportations

Hinson places public safety and national security at the core of immigration policy, calling for full enforcement of immigration laws and border security. She supports deporting criminal illegal immigrants and cracking down on fentanyl trafficking.

  • Secure the southern border by enforcing America's immigration laws.
  • Deport dangerous criminal illegal immigrants.
  • Combat fentanyl and violent crime by cracking down on traffickers and partnering with law enforcement.

“Every family deserves to feel safe in their home and community. Ashley believes public safety starts with enforcing our laws, supporting law enforcement, and securing our border.”

05

Government accountability and ethics

medium salience

Turek emphasizes banning corporate PACs, overturning Citizens United, and setting term limits, while Hinson emphasizes relocating federal agencies out of D.C. and banning stock trading.

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports stock bans and campaign finance reform

Turek refuses corporate PAC money and pushes for reform measures targeting corrupt self-enrichment in Washington. He supports banning congressional stock trading, enacting term limits, passing campaign transparency laws, and overturning Citizens United.

  • Ban Members of Congress and their spouses from trading individual stock.
  • Ban corporate PAC money in political campaigns and pass the DISCLOSE Act.
  • Pass a constitutional amendment to reverse Citizens United.
  • Set term limits for Members of Congress and Supreme Court Justices, and enforce Supreme Court ethics.

“Stop the corruption. Politicians should deliver for the people, not enrich themselves.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports congressional stock bans and government decentralization

Hinson supports reform measures to restore integrity to public service, including stock trading bans and federal lobbying bans. She advocates for moving federal agencies out of Washington, D.C. and rooting out government waste and fraud.

  • Ban Members of Congress from trading individual stocks and betting on prediction markets.
  • Enact commonsense lobbying bans for former federal officials.
  • Move government agencies out of Washington, D.C. and closer to the citizens they serve.
  • Root out waste, fraud, and abuse of taxpayer dollars.

“Ashley has been fighting to restore integrity to public service and ensure the government works for the people, not the other way around.”

06

Reproductive rights and abortion

medium salience

Turek advocates for codifying Roe v. Wade and repealing abortion bans, while Hinson focuses on over-the-counter birth control access and pro-life values.

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports codifying Roe v. Wade

Turek supports full reproductive healthcare freedom and wrote state legislation to repeal Iowa's near-total abortion ban. In the Senate, he pledges to restore federal abortion rights, protect IVF, and expand access to contraception.

  • Make Roe v. Wade the law of the land again.
  • Protect access to contraception and in vitro fertilization (IVF).
  • Address the OB-GYN physician shortage in Iowa.

“Josh also believes that women should make decisions about their reproductive health care, not politicians, and wrote and sponsored legislation to repeal Iowa’s extreme, near-total abortion ban.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports over-the-counter birth control and pro-life values

Hinson emphasizes protecting faith and family values while championing over-the-counter access to birth control. She aligns with pro-life policies while supporting expanded access to preventive care.

  • Champion expanded over-the-counter birth control access.
  • Protect traditional faith, family, and freedom values.

“Ashley has also been a champion for expanding over-the-counter birth control access.”

07

Veterans and military affairs

medium salience

Turek supports Defend the Guard restrictions on overseas Guard deployments and PACT Act expansions, while Hinson emphasizes fully funding the VA and expanding rural veteran healthcare.

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports expanded VA benefits and Guard protections

As the son of a veteran, Turek prioritizes expanding VA funding, healthcare access, and toxic exposure benefits. He passed state legislation expanding veteran homestead tax credits and champions Defend the Guard laws to limit unconstitutional overseas deployments.

  • Protect the Department of Veterans Affairs and reverse staffing and healthcare cuts.
  • Expand the PACT Act for veterans exposed to toxic substances.
  • Support Defend the Guard legislation requiring congressional war declarations before active combat deployment.
  • Address veteran homelessness and ensure disabled veterans can afford housing.

“Support our military heroes and their families while they serve – and when they come home.”

“By voting to continue this war in Iran, Ashley Hinson has once again shown that she does not care about Iowans.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports fully funding VA and rural veteran healthcare

Hinson supports fulfilling commitments to military veterans by expanding healthcare and mental health services in rural Iowa. She calls for fully funding the Department of Veterans Affairs and offering direct constituent advocacy for veterans.

  • Expand access to healthcare and mental health services for rural veterans.
  • Fully fund the Department of Veterans Affairs.
  • Directly advocate for Iowa veterans seeking federal assistance.

“The men and women who wore our nation’s uniform kept their promise to America. Ashley believes America must keep its promise to them.”

08

Education

low salience

Turek calls for ending school vouchers and fully funding public education, while Hinson focuses on parental rights, school transparency, and CTE programs.

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports public school funding and opposing vouchers

Turek opposes school voucher programs, arguing public dollars should remain in public schools. He advocates for restoring federal Department of Education funding, bolstering Area Education Agencies (AEAs), and expanding career training programs.

  • End school vouchers that divert public dollars to nonpublic schools.
  • Restore Department of Education funding and increase public school investment.
  • Protect funding for Area Education Agencies (AEAs).
  • Invest in job training and apprenticeship programs as non-college career pathways.

“Every Iowa child deserves access to the highest quality public education.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports parental rights and CTE expansion

Hinson focuses on empowering parents in educational decisions and increasing transparency in school administration. She supports expanding career and technical education (CTE) and vocational programs to prepare students for Iowa jobs.

  • Protect parents' rights by giving families a stronger voice in education and school transparency.
  • Oppose school policies allowing students to secretly change gender identity.
  • Expand career and technical education (CTE) and connect students to local jobs.

“Protect parents’ rights by giving families a stronger voice in their children’s education and increasing transparency in schools...”

09

Water quality and cancer research

low salience

Turek advocates for mandatory chemical pollution crackdowns and water sensor funding, whereas Hinson relies on voluntary conservation programs and targeted medical research funding.

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports water sensor funding and cancer research

Turek links Iowa's high cancer rates to agricultural water pollution and advocates for funding water quality sensors and enforcing chemical pollution limits. He sponsored state legislation banning carcinogen-containing medical devices and calls for increased NIH research funding.

  • Fund water quality sensors and crack down on chemical companies polluting water supplies.
  • Restore National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding for cancer research.
  • Prohibit health insurance companies from denying medically necessary cancer care.

“We need to address Iowa’s unique cancer crisis and the water quality crisis that’s driving it.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports voluntary conservation and cancer research

Hinson supports expanded funding for cancer research and maternal care while favoring voluntary, incentive-based conservation programs for farmers rather than federal environmental mandates.

  • Support cancer research and preventive care access.
  • Improve voluntary conservation programs for farmers.

“Improve the health of Iowa families by expanding maternal healthcare access, supporting cancer research, and expanding access to preventive care.”

10

Foreign policy and China

low salience

Turek focuses on opposing foreign military intervention and foreign farm bailouts, while Hinson focuses on confronting China's economic influence and protecting U.S. farmland.

Democratic Josh Turek

Opposes unnecessary foreign wars and foreign farm bailouts

Turek opposes foreign military interventions without clear strategies or congressional authorization and criticizes federal bailouts to foreign entities. He advocates for protecting domestic agricultural markets and National Guard members.

  • End unnecessary foreign wars that put American troops at risk.
  • Stop bailouts to foreign countries that undermine American farmers' competitiveness.

“Iowans can’t afford gas, groceries, and health care while Hinson sends tens of billions of dollars overseas to fund a war with no strategy.”

Republican Ashley Hinson

Supports holding China accountable and strong defense

Hinson serves on the House Select Committee on China and focuses on curbing Chinese economic theft, trade abuses, and purchases of U.S. farmland. She emphasizes maintaining American superpower status and protecting domestic intellectual property.

  • Hold the Chinese Communist Party accountable for intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices.
  • Prevent foreign entities and China from purchasing American farmland.
  • Bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. to reduce foreign reliance.

“Hold Communist China accountable for ripping off American jobs and innovation, purchasing American farmland, and implementing unfair trade practices that hurt Iowa farmers, workers, and businesses.”

11

Disability rights

low salience

Democratic Josh Turek

Supports expanding disability rights and access

As the first permanently disabled member of the Iowa House, Turek authored right-to-repair laws for Medicaid mobility devices and protected service animal rights. In the Senate, he promises to eliminate subminimum wages for disabled workers and raise Social Security asset limits.

  • End federal 14C certificates allowing subminimum wages for workers with disabilities.
  • Raise Social Security income and asset limits for disabled individuals.
  • Defend the Americans with Disabilities Act and protect Section 504 from federal lawsuits.

“Individuals with disabilities deserve access to education, employment, and health care without unnecessary barriers.”

Republican Ashley Hinson No documented position in our sources

Polls 8

updated Sep 16
204060JULAUGSEPTUREK 45HINSON 40

Source: RealClearPolling · Turek vs. Hinson ↗

Pollster Date Sample Result Spread
Rasmussen Reports Sep 10 1031 LV Josh Turek 45% / Ashley Hinson 40% Turek +5.0
YouGov Sep 8 2127 LV Josh Turek 45% / Ashley Hinson 43% Turek +2.0
Emerson Sep 1 750 LV Josh Turek 45% / Ashley Hinson 50% Hinson +5.0
Suffolk University Aug 23 500 LV Josh Turek 41% / Ashley Hinson 45% Hinson +4.0
Emerson Aug 4 712 LV Josh Turek 45% / Ashley Hinson 48% Hinson +3.0
FOX News Jun 27 1003 RV Josh Turek 50% / Ashley Hinson 46% Turek +4.0
NY Times/Siena Jun 27 600 LV Josh Turek 46% / Ashley Hinson 48% Hinson +2.0
Cygnal Jun 19 600 LV Josh Turek 44% / Ashley Hinson 46% Hinson +2.0

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Iowa Senate Election Winner

57.5% Republicans
40.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 57.5DEMOCRATS 40.5

Kalshi ↗

Iowa Senate winner?

62.0% Ashley Hinson
39.0% Josh Turek
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16HINSON 62.0TUREK 39.0

Kalshi ↗

Iowa Senate winner? (Person)

63.0% Ashley Hinson
41.0% Josh Turek
1.0% Zach Wahls
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16HINSON 63.0TUREK 41.0WAHLS 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.