Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Alaska Toss-up

Alaska — U.S. Senate

Portrait of David Leslie

Democrat

David Leslie

Portrait of Daniel S. Sullivan

Republican

Daniel S. Sullivan

The 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election features incumbent Republican Daniel S. Sullivan seeking re-election in a four-candidate general election under Alaska's top-four ranked-choice voting system. The general election matchup includes Democratic candidates David Leslie and Mary Peltola, as well as Republican candidate Dan Sullivan. Major rating outlets view the race as highly competitive, with Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rating it Toss-up, while Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
65.5%
Daniel S. Sullivan
34.5%
Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
0.1%
Daniel S. Sullivan
0.1%
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
0.1%
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
0.1%
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
0.1%
Kalshi ↗
Daniel S. Sullivan
99.0%
Mary Peltola
99.0%
Daniel S. Sullivan
99.0%
Gerald Heikes
89.0%
David Leslie
21.0%
Carol Hafner
2.0%
Scott Kohlhaas
1.0%
Richard Grayson
1.0%
Fred C. Grauberger
1.0%
Dustin Darden
1.0%
William Hunt
1.0%
Earl Southworth
1.0%
Reece Roberts
1.0%
Shirley Saucerman
1.0%
Heather McElwain
1.0%
Sid Hill
1.0%
Richard Mayers
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Mary Peltola
99.0%
Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0%
Dustin Darden
1.0%
Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Democrats
66.0%
Republicans
35.0%
Kalshi ↗
Mary Peltola
66.0%
Daniel S. Sullivan
35.0%
Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0%
Richard Grayson
0.1%
Sid Hill
0.1%
Ann Diener
0.1%

All 6 polls → All markets →

01

Economy and taxation

high salience
Democratic David Leslie No documented position in our sources

Republican Daniel S. Sullivan

Supports tax cuts and deregulation

Daniel S. Sullivan emphasizes lower taxes, reduced federal regulation, and spending restraint to spur economic growth. He supported major reconciliation and tax relief measures, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and tax exemptions for tipped income.

  • Voted Yea on H.R.1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) reconciliation bill in 2025
  • Supported S.129 (No Tax on Tips Act) to create a tax deduction of up to $25,000 for tips
  • Voted against the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

“From passing the biggest tax cut in American history and unleashing Alaska’s energy potential, to making historic investments in our military and national defense and strengthening Alaska’s healthcare system, Dan is running for re-election to continue delivering real results for Alaska.”

“The Obama Administration has failed to get the economy moving forward, resulting in one of the weakest recoveries from a recession in our nation’s history. Millions of Americans can’t find work.”

02

Energy and natural resources

high salience
Democratic David Leslie No documented position in our sources

Republican Daniel S. Sullivan

Promotes energy development and resource expansion

Daniel S. Sullivan advocates for expanding Alaska's energy production and natural resource development, drawing on his experience as former state Commissioner of Natural Resources. He opposes federal regulations restricting resource development or incorporating ESG investment criteria.

  • Served as Alaska Commissioner of Natural Resources from 2010 to 2013
  • Voted Yea on H.J.Res. 30 to nullify Department of Labor regulations permitting ESG factors in ERISA retirement plan investments
  • Promotes maximizing resource potential to drive economic growth

“Given Alaska’s world-class resource base and strategic global location, our natural resource potential can lead America into a new era of economic prosperity.”

“As Commissioner of the Department of Natural Resources, Dan defended the state’s economic interests and worked with the private sector to maximize Alaska’s full economic potential.”

03

Immigration and border security

high salience
Democratic David Leslie No documented position in our sources

Republican Daniel S. Sullivan

Supports strict border enforcement legislation

Daniel S. Sullivan favors stricter federal enforcement of immigration laws and mandatory detention for noncitizens arrested for property crimes. He voted for the Laken Riley Act and supported proceeding with impeachment proceedings against Secretary Mayorkas.

  • Voted Yea on S.5 (Laken Riley Act) requiring detention of noncitizens arrested for theft or burglary offenses
  • Voted Nay on motions to dismiss impeachment articles against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas
  • Voted Nay on cloture for the Border Act of 2024 (S.4361)
04

Defense and foreign policy

medium salience
Democratic David Leslie No documented position in our sources

Republican Daniel S. Sullivan

Supports robust military funding and foreign aid

Daniel S. Sullivan advocates for strong defense capabilities and active foreign policy leadership, drawing on his 30-year military career in the Marine Corps and Reserve. He consistently votes in favor of national defense authorization acts and security assistance to foreign allies.

  • Voted Yea on the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 (S.2296)
  • Voted Yea on emergency supplemental funding providing foreign military aid to Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine (H.R. 815)
  • Retired as a Colonel in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve after more than 30 years of service

“With a distinguished record in military and national security service, Dan is a leading voice on foreign policy and a strong national defense advocate.”

05

Abortion and healthcare

medium salience
Democratic David Leslie No documented position in our sources

Republican Daniel S. Sullivan

Opposes federal abortion and IVF mandates

Daniel S. Sullivan opposes federal legislation establishing nationwide abortion access or codifying statutory IVF protections. On healthcare generally, he emphasizes strengthening Alaska's medical infrastructure and maintaining quality access while reining in federal spending.

  • Voted Nay on the Women's Health Protection Act of 2021 (H.R. 3755)
  • Voted Nay on the Right to IVF Act (S. 4445)
  • Voted Nay on S.2882 extending expanded health insurance premium tax credits

“Access to affordable and quality healthcare is an extremely important issue to Alaskans, and it is critical for policy makers to achieve that goal.”

06

Gun policy

medium salience
Democratic David Leslie No documented position in our sources

Republican Daniel S. Sullivan

Opposes firearm restrictions and defends gun rights

Daniel S. Sullivan strongly opposes federal restrictions on firearm ownership and defends Second Amendment rights. He voted to overturn federal agency rules regulating firearm stabilizing braces.

  • Voted Yea on H.J.Res. 44 disapproving the ATF rule on stabilizing braces
  • Opposes federal efforts to restrict gun ownership

“As a Marine-qualified “expert” on the rifle and pistol, Dan is a strong advocate and defender of our Second Amendment rights.”

Polls 6

updated Sep 16

Source: RealClearPolling · Sullivan vs. Peltola ↗ · Peltola vs. Sullivan ↗

Pollster Date Sample Result Spread
Alaska Survey Research Aug 23 1495 LV Peltola 51% / Daniel S. Sullivan 49% Peltola +2.0
Data for Progress (D) Aug 4 605 LV Peltola 53% / Daniel S. Sullivan 47% Peltola +6.0
Data for Progress Jul 27 678 LV Peltola 45% / Daniel S. Sullivan 46% Sullivan +1.0
NY Times/Siena Jun 29 593 LV Peltola 45% / Daniel S. Sullivan 47% Sullivan +2.0
PPP Jan 17 611 RV Peltola 49% / Daniel S. Sullivan 47% Peltola +2.0
Data for Progress Nov 23 823 LV Peltola 46% / Daniel S. Sullivan 45% Peltola +1.0

Prediction markets 5

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

Alaska Senate Election Winner

65.5% Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
34.5% Daniel S. Sullivan
0.1% Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

+4 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 162026? 65.52026? 0.12026? 0.1SULLIVAN 0.12026? 0.12026? 0.1

Kalshi ↗

Alaska Senate: who will advance?

99.0% Daniel S. Sullivan
99.0% Mary Peltola
99.0% Daniel S. Sullivan

+14 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16SULLIVAN 99.0PELTOLA 99.0HEIKES 89.0LESLIE 21.0HAFNER 2.0DARDEN 1.0HILL 1.0GRAUBERGER 1.0GRAYSON 1.0HUNT 1.0MAYERS 1.0SOUTHWORTH 1.0SAUCERMAN 1.0ROBERTS 1.0MCELWAIN 1.0KOHLHAAS 1.0

Kalshi ↗

Alaska Senate primary: 1st place

99.0% Mary Peltola
1.0% Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0% Dustin Darden

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PELTOLA 99.0SULLIVAN 1.0DARDEN 1.0

Kalshi ↗

Alaska Senate winner?

66.0% Democrats
35.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 66.0REPUBLICANS 35.0

Kalshi ↗

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

66.0% Mary Peltola
35.0% Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0% Daniel S. Sullivan

+3 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PELTOLA 66.0SULLIVAN 1.0GRAYSON 0.1HILL 0.1DIENER 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.