Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. Senate · Alaska Toss-up

Alaska Senate race

Portrait of Dan S. Sullivan

Republican

Dan S. Sullivan

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska features incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan facing Democratic challenger and former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola, alongside minor-party candidates including namesake Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald Heikes. The race hinges on economic presssures, energy development, fishery preservation, and party alignment in a state that voted for Donald Trump in three consecutive presidential elections while remaining open to independent-minded leaders.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
71.5%
Daniel S. Sullivan
28.5%
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
0.1%
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
0.1%
Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
0.1%
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
0.1%
Daniel S. Sullivan
0.1%
Kalshi ↗
Daniel S. Sullivan
99.0%
Gerald Heikes
89.0%
David Leslie
21.0%
Carol Hafner
2.0%
Sid Hill
1.0%
William Hunt
1.0%
Dustin Darden
1.0%
Fred C. Grauberger
1.0%
Richard Grayson
1.0%
Scott Kohlhaas
1.0%
Richard Mayers
1.0%
Earl Southworth
1.0%
Reece Roberts
1.0%
Shirley Saucerman
1.0%
Heather McElwain
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Mary Peltola
99.0%
Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0%
Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0%
Dustin Darden
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Democrats
70.0%
Republicans
30.0%
Kalshi ↗
Mary Peltola
68.0%
Daniel S. Sullivan
33.0%
Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0%
Gerald Heikes
1.0%
Ann Diener
0.1%
Richard Grayson
0.1%
Sid Hill
0.1%
Alaska Survey Research ↗ Oct 29 · Peltola +2.0 · via RCP
Peltola
51%
Daniel S. Sullivan
49%

All 17 polls → All markets →

01

Cost of living and supply chains

high salience

Peltola advocates direct federal anti-price-gouging laws, shipping subsidies, and anti-trust enforcement, whereas Sullivan relies on tax relief, regulatory rollbacks, and energy production to reduce living costs.

Democratic Mary Peltola

Supports price gouging bans and freight subsidies

Peltola focuses on lowering prices for groceries, fuel, and shipping across Alaska through federal market intervention and supply chain protections. She advocates for cracking down on corporate price gouging, increasing freight transparency, and bolstering bypass mail and shipping services to rural communities.

  • Proposes banning price gouging by corporations during emergencies, natural disasters, and supply shortages.
  • Restores funding for Bypass Mail and advocates creating an Essential Freight Service to lower shipping rates across Alaska.
  • Supports passing right-to-repair laws to ensure rural Alaskans have affordable access to repair tools and parts for essential machinery.
  • Works to block anti-competitive grocery store mergers to maintain retail competition and control prices.

“Alaskans are being crushed by skyrocketing costs – but I will stand up to anyone to put Alaska first and fight for lower costs.”

Republican Dan S. Sullivan

Focuses on deregulation and tax cuts

Sullivan attributes rising costs to federal regulatory overreach and national economic policies. He emphasizes regulatory rollbacks, expanded domestic energy production, and tax cuts as the primary mechanisms to lower consumer costs.

  • Voted for tax relief measures and regulatory reductions to ease financial burdens on families and businesses.
  • Voted for the No Tax on Tips Act to provide tax deductions of up to $25,000 on tip income.
  • Opposes expanding federal regulation and market interventions that could raise business compliance costs.

“In the Senate, I’ve fought successfully to cut taxes, put more money in people’s pockets, reduce burdensome regulations, unleash Alaskan energy, and create more opportunities for Alaskans.”

02

Energy and natural resources

high salience

Peltola supports clean energy tax credits, local refining, and permitting reform alongside oil development, while Sullivan focuses heavily on reversing federal administrative restrictions to maximize oil, gas, and mineral extraction.

Democratic Mary Peltola

Supports Alaskan oil, gas, and renewables

Peltola supports an energy policy focused on developing Alaskan oil and gas while expanding renewable generation and local refining capacity. She advocates for federal permitting reform to accelerate energy projects and restoring tax credits for clean energy.

  • Promotes refining more crude oil within Alaska to lower fuel costs and enhance Arctic military readiness.
  • Advocates for federal permitting reform to streamline pathways for energy projects.
  • Fights to restore federal tax credits for solar, wind, and hydro projects, alongside Railbelt energy grid funding.
  • Supported major oil and gas development projects like Willow during her tenure in the House.

“That means fighting for Alaska oil and gas development projects to create good-paying jobs and lower costs, protecting Alaskans' fundamental rights, including the right to bear arms and the right to privacy; and advocating for programs Alaskans depend on — the Marine Highway System, the Railbelt energy grid, public radio, and education.”

Republican Dan S. Sullivan

Promotes all-of-the-above domestic energy expansion

Sullivan champions an all-of-the-above energy strategy aimed at fully unleashing Alaska's oil, natural gas, and mineral potential. He aggressively opposes federal administrative restrictions on leasing and resource extraction.

  • Led congressional opposition against federal administrative bans and leasing restrictions in Alaska.
  • Promotes domestic resource extraction to generate high-paying jobs and strengthen national security.
  • Leverages past executive experience as Alaska Commissioner of Natural Resources overseeing state resource development.

“A relentless advocate for an all-of-the-above energy strategy and the good-paying jobs and high environmental standards that support it, Dan led the fight against the Biden Administration’s disastrous war on energy.”

03

Fisheries and marine conservation

high salience

Peltola explicitly calls for a complete ban on factory trawling, whereas Sullivan advocates for targeted regulatory reductions through the Bycatch Reduction Act.

Democratic Mary Peltola

Supports banning factory trawling and bycatch

Peltola centers her campaign on protecting Alaska's fisheries by banning industrial factory trawling and curbing excessive bycatch. She draws on her background as a commercial fisher and tribal fish commission director to prioritize marine conservation.

  • Pledges to enact a federal ban on factory trawling in Alaskan waters.
  • Prioritizes eliminating industrial bycatch to restore declining salmon and subsistence fish stocks.
  • Cites leadership experience with the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission.

“I’ll work to ban factory trawling and restore our fisheries to abundance.”

Republican Dan S. Sullivan

Supports Bycatch Reduction Act and coastal management

Sullivan addresses fishery declines through targeted statutory reforms and federal coastal management leadership. He authored legislation aimed at reducing bycatch while preserving commercial fishing industries.

  • Introduced the federal Bycatch Reduction Act to protect coastal fisheries and reduce unintended harvest.
  • Serves as Chairman of the Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Coast Guard, Maritime, and Fisheries.

“Across Alaska, people want action to reduce bycatch and protect our fisheries. I listened, and introduced the Bycatch Reduction Act because I’ll always fight to protect Alaska’s resources, our coastal communities, and our way of life.”

04

Government reform and ethics

medium salience

Peltola demands structural ethics laws including congressional stock trading bans and term limits, whereas Sullivan points to his executive, military, and Senate seniority as proof of effective representation.

Democratic Mary Peltola

Supports term limits and stock trading bans

Peltola campaigns on cleaning up federal corruption and restricting special-interest influence in Washington. She advocates for congressional term limits, bans on stock trading by members of Congress, and closing campaign finance loopholes.

  • Proposes enacting mandatory congressional term limits.
  • Supports banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks.
  • Advocates eliminating campaign finance loopholes that empower dark money and special interests.

“I will clean up corruption in DC and crack down on self-dealing politicians by passing term limits, banning congressional stock trading, and eliminating campaign finance loopholes that put special interests first and Alaskans last.”

Republican Dan S. Sullivan

Emphasizes executive seniority and public service record

Sullivan emphasizes his record of military service, cabinet leadership, and Senate seniority rather than structural ethics proposals. He highlights his ability to deliver tangible policy outcomes through key committee assignments.

  • Highlights past service as Alaska Attorney General and Natural Resources Commissioner.
  • Emphasizes three decades of service in the U.S. Marine Corps and Marine Corps Reserve.
  • Focuses on legislative effectiveness and committee leadership over federal electoral rules.

“From passing the biggest tax cut in American history and unleashing Alaska’s energy potential, to making historic investments in our military and national defense and strengthening Alaska’s healthcare system, Dan is running for re-election to continue delivering real results for Alaska.”

05

Taxes and wages

medium salience

Peltola favors targeted tax relief for lower- and middle-income workers offset by taxes on millionaires, while Sullivan supports broad-based tax cuts and tip income exemptions.

Democratic Mary Peltola

Supports middle-class tax cuts and wage incentives

Peltola advocates for middle- and working-class tax relief funded by increased taxes on millionaires, billionaires, and corporations. She supports expanding the Child Tax Credit, eliminating taxes on Social Security, and creating tax incentives for fair worker wages.

  • Proposes eliminating federal income tax for Alaskans earning under $92,000 annually, funded by higher taxes on wealthy individuals.
  • Supports an Expanded Child Tax Credit of up to $3,600 per child under six and $3,000 for older children.
  • Pledges to eliminate federal taxes on Social Security benefits for Alaska seniors.
  • Voted for the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024.

“I will work to cut taxes and raise wages. I'll fight to lower fuel, grocery, housing, and childcare prices, and reverse harmful healthcare cuts that are spiking costs.”

Republican Dan S. Sullivan

Supports broad tax cuts and tip deductions

Sullivan highlights his vote for broad-based tax reductions designed to stimulate job growth and increase Alaskans' disposable income. He also supports tax exemptions for tipped wages.

  • Voted for the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, characterizing it as the biggest tax cut in American history.
  • Voted for the No Tax on Tips Act to create a tax deduction of up to $25,000 on tip income.
  • Voted for reconciliation legislation addressing federal tax policy and raising the debt limit in 2025.

“In the Senate, I’ve fought successfully to cut taxes, put more money in people’s pockets, reduce burdensome regulations, unleash Alaskan energy, and create more opportunities for Alaskans.”

06

Second Amendment and constitutional rights

medium salience

Both candidates express support for Second Amendment rights, with Peltola framing gun rights alongside privacy rights and Sullivan emphasizing his military marksmanship and NRA endorsement.

Democratic Mary Peltola

Supports gun rights and privacy rights

Peltola explicitly commits to protecting Second Amendment gun rights alongside individual privacy rights, positioning herself as an independent voice who breaks with national Democratic policy on firearms.

  • Explicitly commits to protecting Alaskans' constitutional right to bear arms.
  • Pledges to defend constitutional privacy rights.
  • Emphasizes an independent approach free from national party dictation.

“protecting Alaskans' fundamental rights, including the right to bear arms and the right to privacy”

Republican Dan S. Sullivan

Opposes gun control and defends Second Amendment

Sullivan campaigns as a Marine-qualified marksman who opposes federal restrictions on gun ownership. He holds an endorsement from the National Rifle Association.

  • Voted Yea on CRA resolution H.J.Res. 44 to nullify ATF regulations regarding firearm stabilizing braces.
  • Endorsed by the National Rifle Association (NRA).
  • Opposes federal executive actions or legislation restricting gun rights.

“As a Marine-qualified “expert” on the rifle and pistol, Dan is a strong advocate and defender of our Second Amendment rights.”

07

Defense, military, and veterans

medium salience

Peltola focuses on military family allowances and quality-of-life funding, while Sullivan emphasizes his 30-year Marine Corps career and Senate defense committee leadership.

Democratic Mary Peltola

Supports military families and cost-of-living allowances

Peltola highlights her background as a military mom, advocating for robust defense funding and cost-of-living protections for military families serving in Alaska. She voted for recent national defense authorization bills during her House tenure.

  • Pledges to protect and expand the Overseas Cost of Living Allowance (OCOLA) for Alaska military families.
  • Voted Yea on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY 2024.
  • Voted Yea on the Servicemember Quality of Life Improvement and NDAA for FY 2025.

“Mary will fight to protect and expand the Overseas Cost of Living Allowance so servicemembers and their families can afford to live in the state they’re protecting.”

Republican Dan S. Sullivan

Supports defense spending and veteran services

Sullivan highlights his 30-year Marine Corps Reserve career and leadership on the Senate Armed Services and Veterans' Affairs committees. He advocates for expanded defense spending and strengthened veteran healthcare in Alaska.

  • Served 30 years in the U.S. Marine Corps and Reserve, retiring as a Colonel in 2024.
  • Serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee and Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee.
  • Voted Yea on the NDAA for Fiscal Year 2026 (S.2296) and FY 2024.
  • Endorsed by Concerned Veterans for America (CVA) Action.

“With a distinguished record in military and national security service, Dan is a strong national defense advocate.”

08

Housing affordability

medium salience

Peltola outlines explicit proposals to restrict corporate landlords and assist renters, whereas Sullivan has no documented specific housing platform in the available sources.

Democratic Mary Peltola

Supports restrictions on corporate landlords and tenant tax credits

Peltola addresses Alaska's housing shortage by proposing restrictions on institutional investors buying single-family homes and providing tax credits for overburdened renters. She also advocates expanding tribal housing grants and taxing foreign buyers.

  • Proposes cracking down on out-of-state private equity funds and corporate landlords purchasing residential homes.
  • Supports refundable federal tax credits for renters spending over 30% of income on housing.
  • Advocates expanding Indian Housing Block Grants for Alaska Native communities.
  • Proposes additional taxes on non-resident foreign purchases of residential real estate.

“Alaska homes should belong to Alaskans, not corporate landlords.”

Republican Dan S. Sullivan No documented position in our sources

Polls 17

updated Oct 31
204060DECJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTPELTOLA 51SULLIVAN 49

Source: RealClearPolling · Sullivan vs. Peltola ↗ · Peltola vs. Sullivan ↗

Pollster Date Sample Result Spread
Alaska Survey Research Oct 29 1326 LV Peltola 51% / Daniel S. Sullivan 49% Peltola +2.0
Data for Progress Oct 16 694 LV Peltola 51% / Daniel S. Sullivan 49% Peltola +2.0
Rasmussen Reports Oct 15 775 LV Peltola 47% / Daniel S. Sullivan 48% Sullivan +1.0
PPP Oct 15 578 RV Peltola 48% / Daniel S. Sullivan 47% Peltola +1.0
InsiderAdvantage Oct 10 1200 LV Peltola 50% / Daniel S. Sullivan 48% Peltola +2.0
Alaska Survey Research Oct 3 1512 LV Peltola 51% / Daniel S. Sullivan 49% Peltola +2.0
NY Times/Siena Oct 1 504 LV Peltola 50% / Daniel S. Sullivan 43% Peltola +7.0
Quantus Insights Sep 30 737 LV Peltola 47% / Daniel S. Sullivan 48% Sullivan +1.0
co/efficient Sep 17 799 LV Peltola 46% / Daniel S. Sullivan 49% Sullivan +3.0
Alaska Survey Research Sep 12 1352 LV Peltola 52% / Daniel S. Sullivan 48% Peltola +4.0
Fabrizio/Anzalone Sep 11 800 LV Peltola 53% / Daniel S. Sullivan 47% Peltola +6.0
Alaska Survey Research Aug 23 1495 LV Peltola 51% / Daniel S. Sullivan 49% Peltola +2.0
Data for Progress (D) Aug 4 605 LV Peltola 53% / Daniel S. Sullivan 47% Peltola +6.0
Data for Progress Jul 27 678 LV Peltola 45% / Daniel S. Sullivan 46% Sullivan +1.0
NY Times/Siena Jun 29 593 LV Peltola 45% / Daniel S. Sullivan 47% Sullivan +2.0
PPP Jan 17 611 RV Peltola 49% / Daniel S. Sullivan 47% Peltola +2.0
Data for Progress Nov 23 823 LV Peltola 46% / Daniel S. Sullivan 45% Peltola +1.0

Prediction markets 5

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

Alaska Senate Election Winner

71.5% Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
28.5% Daniel S. Sullivan
0.1% Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

+4 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 312026? 71.5SULLIVAN 28.52026? 0.12026? 0.12026? 0.12026? 0.1

Kalshi ↗

Alaska Senate: who will advance?

99.0% Daniel S. Sullivan
89.0% Gerald Heikes
21.0% David Leslie

+12 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31SULLIVAN 99.0PELTOLA 99.0HEIKES 89.0LESLIE 21.0HAFNER 2.0HUNT 1.0DARDEN 1.0HILL 1.0GRAUBERGER 1.0GRAYSON 1.0MAYERS 1.0SOUTHWORTH 1.0SAUCERMAN 1.0ROBERTS 1.0MCELWAIN 1.0KOHLHAAS 1.0

Kalshi ↗

Alaska Senate primary: 1st place

99.0% Mary Peltola
1.0% Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0% Daniel S. Sullivan

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31PELTOLA 99.0SULLIVAN 1.0DARDEN 1.0

Kalshi ↗

Alaska Senate winner?

70.0% Democrats
30.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 70.0REPUBLICANS 30.0

Kalshi ↗

Alaska Senate winner? (Person)

68.0% Mary Peltola
33.0% Daniel S. Sullivan
1.0% Daniel S. Sullivan

+4 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31PELTOLA 68.0SULLIVAN 1.0HEIKES 1.0HILL 0.1DIENER 0.1GRAYSON 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.