Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Wyoming Safe R

Wyoming — At-Large District

The 2026 general election for Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District features Republican Secretary of State Chuck Gray and Democratic former state Senator Lisa Kinney in an open-seat matchup following Rep. Harriet Hageman's run for the U.S. Senate. Gray won a nine-candidate Republican primary on August 18, 2026, while Kinney won the Democratic primary. The race hinges on sharp ideological contrasts between Gray's America-First platform focused on election integrity, coal protection, and border security, versus Kinney's emphasis on preserving public land ownership, lowering living costs, and expanding healthcare. Major election forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
97.7%
Democrats
0.4%
Kalshi ↗
Chuck Gray
93.1%
Lisa Kinney
3.4%
Kalshi ↗
Lisa Kinney
99.0%
Elena Del Real
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Chuck Gray
99.0%
Jillian Balow
3.0%
Frank Chapman
1.0%
Reid Rasner
1.0%
Steve Friess
1.0%
Bo Biteman
1.0%
David Giralt
1.0%
John Romero-Martinez
1.0%
Kevin Christensen
1.0%

All markets →

01

Energy policy

high salience

Gray focuses on protecting traditional coal, oil, and gas industries while opposing wind subsidies and ESG rules, whereas Kinney emphasizes conscientious state energy development balanced with water, wildlife, and land conservation.

Democratic Lisa Kinney

Supports conscientious state energy development

Kinney supports conscientious energy development on public lands alongside environmental and agricultural protections. She advocates balancing energy production with water, wildlife, and land preservation.

  • Supports conscientious energy development alongside livestock grazing
  • Emphasizes protecting Wyoming water and wildlife resources

“I believe we can and should be conscientious in developing energy, allowing grazing for our ranchers, and still protect our water and wildlife.”

Republican Chuck Gray

Supports traditional energy and opposes ESG

Gray emphasizes coal, oil, and gas as the backbone of Wyoming's economy. In the state legislature, he sponsored HB 251 to defend state coal export rights against Washington State and now pledges to stop wind project subsidies and anti-fossil fuel ESG regulations.

  • Sponsored HB 251 in 2019 to defend Wyoming coal export rights against Washington State
  • Opposes wind energy projects and federal subsidies supporting them
  • Advanced anti-ESG rules as chief securities official to protect state industries

“Wyoming's energy sector is the backbone of our economy.”

“Protect coal, oil and gas, and energy jobs”

02

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Kinney advocates lowering prices by removing tariffs, lowering income and FICA taxes, and increasing healthcare subsidies, whereas Gray proposes curbing inflation through spending cuts, lower taxes for working families, and stopping tax hikes.

Democratic Lisa Kinney

Supports tax cuts and tariff removals

Kinney highlights high costs for housing, food, childcare, healthcare, gas, and groceries as a major crisis facing Wyoming residents. She proposes removing tariffs, reducing or deleting income taxes and FICA, and modifying federal spending bills to provide relief to everyday citizens.

  • Proposes removing tariffs to lower consumer goods prices
  • Supports lowering or eliminating income taxes and FICA taxes
  • Seeks to reform provisions of the 'Big Beautiful Bill' to relieve cost pressures

“Wyoming is in a critical time with the cost of everything being so high.”

“I will work to remove tariffs, decrease the damaging provisions of the "Big Beautiful Bill," lower or delete income taxes and FICA, and work in a bipartisan manner to pass legislation to help the everyday citizen, all of us.”

Republican Chuck Gray

Supports tax cuts and reduced spending

Gray blames record inflation on federal money printing and government spending during the Biden administration. He pledges to lower taxes for working families, reduce government waste, and oppose tax or fee hikes.

  • Pledges never to support tax or fee hikes
  • Advocates cutting federal government spending and waste to curb inflation
  • Supported capping property taxes during his state legislative tenure

“With the Fed printing more and more money and the government spending our tax dollars like they are drunk on power, it should be no surprise that we are experiencing record inflation.”

“Lower taxes for working families”

03

Government ethics and transparency

medium salience

Kinney focuses on ethics reform, restoring civility, and preventing official self-enrichment, whereas Gray emphasizes legislative accountability through recorded votes and serving as a watchdog over state government.

Democratic Lisa Kinney

Supports ethical reforms and anti-corruption measures

Kinney expresses deep concern regarding government corruption, broken ethical norms, and self-enrichment by politicians. She promises to bring civility back to politics and ensure elected officials do not use their positions for personal wealth creation.

  • Pledges to restore ethical norms and fight government corruption
  • Opposes elected officials using office to increase personal wealth while cutting benefits
  • Seeks to restore civility in political discourse

“I want to bring civility back to Wyoming. I have integrity, am honest and believe that elected officials should not make decisions to increase their own personal wealth, while cutting benefits to Wyoming people.”

“Right now I am concerned about the corruption in our government and the ethical norms that are being broken every day.”

Republican Chuck Gray

Supports recorded legislative votes and accountability

Gray positions himself as a government watchdog, advocating for increased legislative transparency through recorded votes. He emphasizes taking power away from state government insiders and returning it to citizens.

  • Called for recorded legislative votes to hold politicians accountable
  • Positioned Secretary of State office as a watchdog over legislature and governor

“I'm the only candidate who has already been doing this by calling for recorded votes in the legislature to make sure politicians are accountable to voters who deserve to know exactly what the government is doing.”

04

Public lands

high salience

Democratic Lisa Kinney

Opposes transfer of federal lands

Kinney views keeping public lands in public hands as a central calling of her campaign. She opposes efforts by politicians to transfer or dispose of federal lands, arguing that transfer in Wyoming often means sale, while supporting multi-use management like ranch grazing and energy development.

  • Opposes transferring or disposing of federal public lands
  • Supports multi-use land management including livestock grazing and wildlife protection
  • Advocates for conscientious energy development on public lands

“We must keep public lands in public hands.”

“Our public lands are the soul of Wyoming, and I will keep them where they belong: In Public Hands!”

Republican Chuck Gray No documented position in our sources
05

Election integrity and voting rights

high salience
Democratic Lisa Kinney No documented position in our sources

Republican Chuck Gray

Supports strict voter ID and proof of citizenship

Gray built his political career around election security, sponsoring Wyoming's 2021 voter ID law as a state representative. As Secretary of State, he established proof of citizenship requirements for voter registration, banned ballot drop boxes, ranked-choice voting, and foreign election funding, and defended President Trump against ballot removal attempts.

  • Lead sponsor of Wyoming's 2021 voter ID law (HB 75)
  • Implemented proof of U.S. citizenship requirement for voter registration
  • Banned ranked-choice voting, foreign election funding, and ballot drop boxes

“It is a necessary function of our Republic to provide our citizens with confidence that our elections are secure, fair, and valid.”

“I believe Wyoming can and should require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for every new registrant to vote in all Wyoming elections.”

06

Healthcare

high salience

Democratic Lisa Kinney

Supports universal healthcare and ACA subsidies

Kinney advocates for universal healthcare, beginning with restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies to lower insurance premiums immediately. She aims to work long-term toward a Medicare for All system and emphasizes that mental healthcare is an essential component of health coverage.

  • Supports restoring ACA subsidies to lower immediate health insurance premiums
  • Advocates long-term transition toward Medicare for All universal healthcare
  • Emphasizes expanding mental healthcare access across Wyoming

“I am interested in pursuing universal healthcare by first bringing back the ACA subsidies to lower health insurance premiums right away and then working toward Medicare for all.”

“The United States is the only country in the world that does not provide healthcare for its citizens.”

Republican Chuck Gray No documented position in our sources
07

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience
Democratic Lisa Kinney No documented position in our sources

Republican Chuck Gray

Supports strict pro-life restrictions

Gray is an outspoken pro-life advocate who authored Wyoming's 2017 ultrasound bill (HB 182), requiring doctors to offer patients ultrasound info and fetal heartbeats. He opposes taxpayer-funded abortion and has been awarded the Wyoming Right to Life Platinum Award.

  • Lead sponsor of Wyoming's 2017 ultrasound bill (HB 182)
  • Opposes taxpayer-funded abortion policies
  • Received Wyoming Right to Life Platinum Award

“This helps to ensure a woman’s decision is informed. We simply want to offer the option for an ultrasound or to hear the heartbeat.”

“Stop taxpayer-funded abortion policies”

08

Immigration and border security

medium salience
Democratic Lisa Kinney No documented position in our sources

Republican Chuck Gray

Supports strict border enforcement and deportations

Gray supports an America First border strategy aligned with Donald Trump, opposing open-border policies and sanctuary measures. He advocates enforcing existing immigration laws and halting refugee resettlement.

  • Supports securing the border and ending Biden-era open-border policies
  • Opposes refugee resettlement in Wyoming
  • Demands full enforcement of existing federal immigration laws

“A nation without borders is not a nation.”

“Secure the border and stop illegal immigration”

09

Gun policy and Second Amendment

medium salience
Democratic Lisa Kinney No documented position in our sources

Republican Chuck Gray

Opposes gun control restrictions

Gray positions himself as a pro-Second Amendment champion, opposing restrictions on gun ownership. Endorsed by the NRA during his state legislative campaigns, he maintains that firearm ownership rights shall not be infringed.

  • Opposes gun restrictions based on Second Amendment protections
  • Endorsed by the National Rifle Association (NRA) in 2016

“Defend the Second Amendment — shall not be infringed”

10

Technology and infrastructure

low salience

Democratic Lisa Kinney

Supports rural broadband and data center regulation

Kinney advocates for research and federal legislation regarding data center development in Wyoming. She also highlights the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) Act to expand internet infrastructure across rural areas.

  • Supports enacting regulations and research on data centers
  • Promotes BEAD Act funding for rural state broadband expansion

“Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment Act (BEAD) is important to provide internet service to rural areas across the state.”

“Data Centers will need research and legislation which is what Lisa Kinney plans to do.”

Republican Chuck Gray No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

WY-AL House Election Winner

97.7% Republicans
0.4% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 97.7DEMOCRATS 0.4

Kalshi ↗

WY-AL House winner?

93.1% Chuck Gray
3.4% Lisa Kinney
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 95.5GRAY 93.1KINNEY 3.4PARTY 1.5

Kalshi ↗

WY-AL Democratic nominee?

99.0% Lisa Kinney
1.0% Elena Del Real
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16KINNEY 99.0REAL 1.0

Kalshi ↗

WY-AL Republican nominee?

99.0% Chuck Gray
3.0% Jillian Balow
1.0% Frank Chapman

+6 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16GRAY 99.0BALOW 3.0RASNER 1.0GIRALT 1.0CHAPMAN 1.0FRIESS 1.0ROMERO-MARTINEZ 1.0CHRISTENSEN 1.0BITEMAN 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.