Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Wisconsin Safe D

Wisconsin — 4th District

The 2026 election for Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District features Democratic incumbent Gwen Moore against Republican challenger Tim Rogers in a rematch of previous cycles. The Milwaukee-centered district is rated Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill, carrying a Cook PVI of D+26. The race hinges on Moore's long-standing legislative voting record in Congress versus Rogers' outsider platform prioritizing universal school choice, lower taxes, clean water emergency measures, and criminal justice reform.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
96.3%
Republicans
1.4%
Kalshi ↗
Gwen Moore
98.0%
Tim Rogers
6.0%
Kalshi ↗
Gwen Moore
98.0%
Amy Donahue
1.0%
Asher Smale
1.0%

All markets →

01

Taxes and fiscal policy

high salience

Rogers advocates dismantling the progressive tax system and shrinking federal spending, whereas Moore consistently votes against Republican spending caps and tax reconciliation measures.

Democratic Gwen Moore

Opposes Republican budget and tax legislation

Moore serves on the House Committee on Ways and Means and Joint Economic Committee. She has consistently voted against Republican budget reconciliation bills, tax cuts, and statutory spending caps, opposing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the Limit, Save, Grow Act.

  • Voted Nay on the 2025 reconciliation bill (H.R. 1, One Big Beautiful Bill Act).
  • Voted Nay on the FY 2025 Congressional Budget Resolution (H.Con.Res. 14).
  • Voted Nay on the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023.

Republican Tim Rogers

Supports lowering taxes and reducing spending

Rogers advocates eliminating the progressive tax system and reducing overall government spending to lower tax burdens on families. He supports shrinking government agencies through retirement attrition and argues that federal spending on public schools is unconstitutional.

  • Proposes eliminating the progressive tax system.
  • Calls for reducing federal spending and letting government agencies shrink via attrition.
  • Contends that spending federal funds on public schools is unconstitutional.

“If elected, I will work to destroy the progressive tax system.”

02

Criminal justice reform

medium salience

Rogers advocates strict penalties for violent crime alongside automatic post-sentence rights restoration, while Moore has voted against federal bills expanding mandatory detentions and deportations for noncitizen offenses.

Democratic Gwen Moore

Opposes expanded detention and deportation mandates

Moore voted against federal measures mandating detention and deportation for certain noncitizen criminal offenses, such as theft or driving under the influence.

  • Voted Nay on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5).
  • Voted Nay on the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025 (H.R. 875).

Republican Tim Rogers

Supports strict sentencing and rights restoration

Rogers calls for harsh punishments for violent criminals alongside automatic restoration of voting and civil rights once a sentence is served. He advocates transforming the justice system to protect urban families while ensuring former offenders can reintegrate into society.

  • Supports harsh punishment for violent criminals and those who threaten public safety.
  • Advocates automatic full restoration of rights immediately upon completion of a sentence.
  • Calls for restructuring the criminal justice system to restore community trust.

“I support harsh punishment for violent criminals and those who disregard public safety and our nation’s future. While I support strict sentences for extreme crimes, I also believe that once a citizen has served their time, their rights need to be immediately and fully restored.”

03

Education and school choice

high salience
Democratic Gwen Moore No documented position in our sources

Republican Tim Rogers

Supports universal school choice vouchers

Rogers supports universal school choice and voucher programs, arguing urban districts like Milwaukee Public Schools have failed students for decades. He proposes dissecting local school budgets and ensuring students graduate with basic math and reading skills.

  • Supports universal school choice and voucher programs for urban students.
  • Calls for auditing and dissecting the Milwaukee School District budget.
  • States that federal spending on public education is unconstitutional.

“I support School Choice and School Voucher programs. In many urban districts, these programs have proven to be the best option to let students reach their full potential.”

04

Immigration and border security

medium salience

Democratic Gwen Moore

Opposes Republican border enforcement measures

Moore consistently opposes House Republican immigration and border enforcement bills. She voted against the Secure the Border Act of 2023, the SAVE Act requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, and the Laken Riley Act.

  • Voted Nay on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2).
  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22).
  • Voted Nay on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5).
Republican Tim Rogers No documented position in our sources
05

Infrastructure and clean water

medium salience
Democratic Gwen Moore No documented position in our sources

Republican Tim Rogers

Supports declaring clean water emergency

Rogers prioritizes declaring a clean water emergency to address crumbling water infrastructure in Milwaukee and nationwide. He argues government inaction has endangered family health and advocates leveraging modern technology to replace hazardous pipes immediately.

  • Proposes declaring a clean water emergency for vulnerable communities.
  • Calls for immediate replacement of crumbling lead pipes to protect public health.
  • Criticizes current politicians for failing to resolve infrastructure crises.

“One of my first priorities is to declare a clean water emergency for the areas of our country that need it the most.”

06

Social Security

low salience

Democratic Gwen Moore

Supports expanding Social Security benefits

Moore serves on the Social Security Subcommittee of the House Committee on Ways and Means. She voted in favor of the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 to reduce benefit offsets for public pension recipients.

  • Assigned to the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security.
  • Voted Yea on the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 (H.R. 82).
Republican Tim Rogers No documented position in our sources
07

Transgender policies and athletics

low salience

Democratic Gwen Moore

Opposes restrictions on transgender student athletes

Moore voted against federal legislation that would bar transgender female athletes from participating in female school sports programs.

  • Voted Nay on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).
Republican Tim Rogers No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

WI-04 House Election Winner

96.3% Democrats
1.4% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 96.3REPUBLICANS 1.4

Kalshi ↗

WI-04 House winner?

98.0% Gwen Moore
6.0% Tim Rogers
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16PARTY 98.0MOORE 98.0ROGERS 6.0PARTY 1.9

Kalshi ↗

WI-04 Democratic nominee?

98.0% Gwen Moore
1.0% Amy Donahue
1.0% Asher Smale
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16MOORE 98.0SMALE 1.0DONAHUE 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.