Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Wisconsin Toss-up

Wisconsin — 3rd District

Portrait of Derrick Van Orden

Republican

Derrick Van Orden

Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District features a 2024 general election rematch between Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden and Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke. Regarded as Wisconsin's most competitive seat, major election forecasters rate the race as a Toss-up or Lean Democratic. The contest hinges on economic pressures, healthcare accessibility, agricultural policy, and candidate background, with Van Orden highlighting his legislative record and military background while Cooke emphasizes her rural roots, small business experience, and working-class advocacy.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
70.5%
Republicans
28.0%
Kalshi ↗
Rebecca Cooke
71.0%
Derrick Van Orden
29.0%
Kalshi ↗
Rebecca Cooke
99.0%
Melvin Marin
1.0%
Emily Berge
1.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Cooke advocates for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour and providing targeted housing tax relief, while Van Orden focuses on lowering taxes and cutting government regulation to foster growth.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke

Supports minimum wage increase and housing relief

Cooke promises to address the affordability crisis by lowering taxes for working families, promoting living wages, and tackling corporate price gouging. Her economic proposals include raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour, expanding community block grants for affordable housing, and deferring property taxes for first-time homebuyers.

  • Increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour with a tiered implementation timeline.
  • Defer property tax payments for first-time homebuyers for up to five years.
  • Expand federal community block grants and tax credits for affordable rural housing.
  • Target corporate price gouging at gas pumps and grocery stores.

“Tackling the affordability crisis head-on with better wages, more economic opportunities and lower taxes for working families.”

“People’s pocketbooks are hurting – prices have been rising at the gas pump and the grocery store.”

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Supports tax cuts and reduced spending

Van Orden advocates for tax relief and deregulation as the primary levers for economic growth. He highlights his support for the Working Families Tax Cuts to ensure families and small business owners retain more of their income while opposing Democratic tax increases.

  • Supported the Working Families Tax Cuts to reduce tax burdens on families and small businesses.
  • Opposes tax increases proposed by congressional Democrats.
  • Advocates cutting federal spending to combat inflation and promote private sector growth.

“I supported the Working Families Tax Cuts, which put more money back in the pockets of working families, seniors and small businesses.”

“Derrick will work tirelessly to stop Democrat tax hikes and make sure more of your hard earned money remains where it should be: in your pocket.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Cooke advocates expanding Medicare and bolstering the Affordable Care Act exchange, whereas Van Orden favors fully repealing Obamacare and replacing it with a market competition model.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke

Supports expanding Medicare and lowering costs

Cooke proposes expanding Medicare coverage to include vision, dental, and hearing benefits while systematically lowering the eligibility age. She also supports strengthening the Affordable Care Act, empowering Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices, and raising hospital reimbursement rates to protect rural healthcare facilities.

  • Expand Medicare coverage to include dental, vision, and hearing care.
  • Annually lower the eligibility age for Medicare enrollment.
  • Increase Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates for rural hospitals.
  • Allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices and cap costs.

“Expand Medicare to cover vision, dental and hearing – the very things that deteriorate as we age.”

“Increase the Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates for hospitals so we can continue providing critical care in our rural communities.”

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Supports ACA repeal and free-market reform

Van Orden supports repealing the Affordable Care Act and replacing it with a competitive, market-driven system that preserves protections for preexisting conditions. In Congress, he highlights federal funding he helped secure for Wisconsin healthcare, including $500 million for rural hospital infrastructure and $600,000 for rural emergency services.

  • Supports full repeal of Obamacare with replacement legislation protecting preexisting conditions.
  • Secured $500 million in federal funding for Wisconsin rural hospital infrastructure.
  • Obtained $600,000 in federal funding for new ambulances in underserved district areas.

“Derrick will work to make sure individuals with preexisting conditions are protected when Obamacare is fully repealed and a new system is implemented allowing for true competition in healthcare, driving costs down.”

“Under Derrick’s leadership, he secured $1 billion annually for BadgerCare, obtained an additional $600,000 in federal funding for new ambulances in underserved areas of the District, and successfully fought for and secured $500 million to strengthen Wisconsin’s rural hospital infrastructure.”

03

Farming and agriculture

high salience

Cooke emphasizes strict antitrust enforcement against corporate agribusiness to protect small producers, while Van Orden points to his legislative work on dairy innovation and milk access through his House Agriculture Committee post.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke

Supports antitrust enforcement and small farm subsidies

Drawing on her background growing up on a family dairy farm, Cooke proposes directing federal tax incentives and subsidies specifically to small and midsize farms rather than corporate agriculture. She advocates for enforcing antitrust laws against agricultural conglomerates, restructuring the Farm Bill, and funding acquisition grants for vacant farmsteads.

  • Enforce antitrust regulations against large corporate agricultural conglomerates.
  • Redirect tax incentives and Farm Bill subsidies toward small and midsize producers.
  • Provide federal grants to help new farmers purchase vacant farmsteads.
  • Incentivize the formation of rural agricultural cooperatives.

“Ensure tax incentives and subsidies are created for small to midsize farms, not just for bigger ag.”

“Enforce antitrust laws that are impacting the ability for farmers to compete with growing conglomerates.”

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Supports dairy innovation and industry deregulation

As Vice Chair of the House Agriculture Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry, Van Orden highlights his role as the first Wisconsin member on the House Agriculture Committee in over a decade. He points to legislative achievements, such as passing the Dairy Business Innovation Act and championing the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act.

  • Serves as Vice Chair of the Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry on the House Agriculture Committee.
  • Passed the Dairy Business Innovation Act to expand production and marketing for local dairy products.
  • Championed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act signed into law by President Trump.

“Derrick continues to deliver major wins for Wisconsin farmers in Congress, including passing the Dairy Business Innovation Act to support the development, production, marketing, and distribution of Wisconsin dairy products.”

“He also championed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act which was signed into law by President Trump and ensures children have access to whole milk.”

04

Reproductive rights

medium salience

Cooke explicitly supports codifying Roe v. Wade and funding Planned Parenthood, whereas Van Orden maintains a pro-life stance that favors legal protections for the unborn.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke

Supports codifying abortion rights federally

Cooke advocates for federal protections for abortion access and reproductive healthcare. She supports codifying Roe v. Wade, maintaining federal funding for Planned Parenthood facilities, and repealing the Hyde Amendment to enable Medicaid coverage for reproductive health services.

  • Supports codifying the protections of Roe v. Wade into federal law.
  • Advocates keeping Planned Parenthood clinics open and federally funded.
  • Supports repealing the Hyde Amendment to permit federal healthcare coverage for abortion.

“In Congress, I will always protect reproductive healthcare and the personal freedoms of all Wisconsinites.”

“Unabashedly support the upholding of Roe vs. Wade.”

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Opposes abortion rights

Van Orden holds a pro-life stance on abortion, grounding his position in his background as a military veteran, paramedic, and grandfather. He believes human life is precious and should be protected by law.

  • Maintains a pro-life position regarding abortion legislation.
  • Grounds his anti-abortion stance in his career as a Navy SEAL corpsman and paramedic.

“As a Navy SEAL veteran who has lost friends in both training and combat, and as a paramedic, father, and grandfather, I have a unique understanding of how precious life is and why it should be protected.”

05

Infrastructure, energy, and environment

medium salience

Cooke prioritizes renewable energy investments and corporate pollution regulations, whereas Van Orden focuses on increasing traditional fossil fuel production while highlighting local water remediation funding.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke

Supports green energy and PFAS remediation

Cooke supports utilizing federal investments to expand renewable energy projects such as wind, solar, and small modular nuclear power. She prioritizes rapid testing and cleanup of PFAS water contamination, public investment in high-speed passenger rail, and stricter environmental regulation of major corporate polluters.

  • Secure federal funding for wind, solar, hydro, and small modular nuclear power projects.
  • Prioritize federal resources for PFAS water testing, remediation, and research.
  • Advocate for regional high-speed passenger rail expansion across west-central Wisconsin.
  • Enforce stricter environmental regulations on major corporate polluters.

“Draw federal funds for investment in green energy projects that harness our natural resources like wind, solar and hydro energy. Ensure that as we build new clean infrastructure, we’re relying on union workers to build our future.”

“Work with regional stakeholders and policy makers to rapidly address the PFAS issue in our water – including more testing, remediation and research.”

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Supports domestic energy production and water cleanup

Van Orden supports expanding domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production to reduce energy costs. Concurrently, he highlights federal infrastructure funds he helped secure for his district, including $350 million to transition away from PFAS-laden firefighting foams.

  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to expand domestic oil, gas, and coal production.
  • Secured $350 million to transition firefighting foams away from PFAS to non-toxic alternatives.
  • Obtained federal funding to provide safe, clean drinking water infrastructure across western Wisconsin.

“In Congress, Derrick has secured millions in funding to provide western Wisconsin with drinking water that is safe from contaminants and has also secured $350 million to transition firefighting foams away from PFAS to safer alternatives.”

06

Government reform and voting rules

medium salience

Cooke emphasizes reducing special interest corruption in federal politics, while Van Orden focuses on passing congressional term limits and implementing documentary citizenship requirements for voter registration.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke

Supports anti-corruption and campaign finance reform

Cooke centers her reform agenda on eliminating political corruption and special-interest influence in Washington. Endorsed by groups such as End Citizens United and Defend The Vote, she advocates for government transparency and constituent-focused congressional representation.

  • Campaign priority to end the culture of political corruption in Washington.
  • Endorsed by campaign finance reform organizations including End Citizens United.
  • Pledges to maintain a constituent-centered district office structure.

“Ending the culture of corruption in Washington.”

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Supports congressional term limits and SAVE Act

Van Orden supports mandatory constitutional term limits for all members of Congress to prevent careerism. In the House, he voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) to require proof of U.S. citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge supporting constitutional term limits for members of Congress.
  • Voted for the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act to require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration.

“Derrick supports term limits on all legislators, ensuring that being elected to Congress remains an act of public service, not a way to enrich one’s self.”

07

Education

low salience

Cooke promotes expanded federal funding for Head Start, teacher pay, and student loan refinancing, while Van Orden emphasizes removing school mandates and restricting female sports participation to biological females.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke

Supports early education funding and loan refinancing

Cooke advocates increasing federal investments in early childhood programs such as Head Start, raising teacher compensation to address staff shortages, and restructuring student loan debt. Her platform includes doubling the value of Pell Grants and allowing borrowers to refinance student loans at current market rates.

  • Increase federal funding for Head Start and early childhood education.
  • Raise teacher salaries to mitigate recruitment shortages.
  • Allow student loan borrowers to refinance loans at lower interest rates.
  • Double the maximum value of federal Pell Grants for lower-income students.

“Increase funding to early childhood education like Head Start and preschool.”

“Treat student loans like mortgage rates, offering the opportunity to refinance when interest rates decline.”

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Supports school reopening and female sports protections

Van Orden stresses removing federal restrictions on local schools, emphasizing post-pandemic school operation. In the House, he voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28) to restrict participation in female athletic programs based on biological sex.

  • Opposed extended federal COVID-19 mandates and restrictions on local public schools.
  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).

“Derrick believes we need to restore our freedoms after the last year of imposed restrictions, and that starts with getting our children back to school.”

08

Border security and immigration

medium salience

Van Orden actively champions border wall funding, mandatory worker verification, and criminal deportations, while Cooke has not detailed a public position on immigration in the source materials.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke No documented position in our sources

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Supports border enforcement and deportations

Van Orden strongly supports strict border enforcement policies and efforts to deport undocumented immigrants who commit crimes. In Congress, he has supported major border legislation, including H.R. 2 (Secure the Border Act), the Laken Riley Act, and bills mandating deportation for DUI offenses.

  • Supported H.R. 2 (Secure the Border Act) to mandate electronic worker verification and restrict asylum eligibility.
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act to require federal detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for theft crimes.
  • Supported H.R. 875 to make driving under the influence grounds for deportation of unauthorized immigrants.
  • Supports President Trump's border security and criminal deportation initiatives.

“Without borders, we are, by definition, not a nation. Derrick is working with the Trump Administration to secure our borders, ensure law enforcement and border patrol agents have the resources they need, keep communities safe, and remove dangerous criminal illegal aliens from our streets.”

“Derrick has staunchly supported President Trump’s border policies and his efforts to deport criminal illegal aliens, including the man who assaulted two women just blocks from his home in Prairie du Chien.”

09

Veterans affairs

medium salience

Van Orden makes veterans' advocacy a cornerstone of his platform through his subcommittee chairmanship and legislative reforms, whereas Cooke presents no specific veterans' policy platform.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke No documented position in our sources

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Supports VA reform and veteran employment

A retired Navy SEAL Senior Chief who receives his own healthcare through the Department of Veterans Affairs, Van Orden serves as Chairman of the House Veterans' Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity. He focuses on cutting VA bureaucracy, preventing veteran home foreclosures, and improving GI Bill administration.

  • Serves as Chair of the House Veterans' Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity.
  • Fought to protect veterans from housing loss via the VA Home Loan Program Reform Act.
  • Advocates cutting VA red tape for physical and mental healthcare treatments.
  • Worked to enhance GI Bill transparency for reserve and enlisted service members.

“As Chairman of the Economic Opportunity Subcommittee, Derrick works tirelessly to create pathways for veterans to successfully reintegrate into civilian life through post-secondary education, new employment and training opportunities, support for veteran-owned businesses, and removing barriers to housing.”

“In Congress, Derrick has demanded accountability from the VA, fought to protect veterans from foreclosure through the VA Home Loan Program Reform Act, and worked to enhance GI Bill transparency, ensuring educational benefits are fair for both reserve and enlisted members.”

10

Labor and worker rights

medium salience

Cooke aggressively supports organized labor through proposals like the PRO Act and prevailing wage mandates, while Van Orden does not outline a specific labor union policy in the provided sources.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke

Supports PRO Act and union protections

Backed by numerous major labor organizations, Cooke advocates passing the PRO Act to expand union organizing rights. She supports Davis-Bacon prevailing wage requirements, project labor agreements on federally funded projects, and eliminating uncertified apprenticeship models.

  • Pledges to co-sponsor and pass the Richard L. Trumka Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act.
  • Supports Davis-Bacon prevailing wage protections and mandatory project labor agreements for federal projects.
  • Advocates eliminating Industry-Recognized Apprenticeship Programs (IRAPs) to preserve registered union programs.

“Work to pass the PRO Act. I will not be an idle advocate for workers rights, but active, and will rally my colleagues to get it passed.”

“Support Davis-Bacon prevailing wage protections and working to ensure that every federally funded project that comes to my District has a project labor agreement attached to it.”

Republican Derrick Van Orden No documented position in our sources
11

Public safety and law enforcement

low salience

Van Orden highlights his support for law enforcement funding and criminal penalties for fentanyl and DUI offenses, while Cooke does not outline a specific public safety platform in the sources.

Democratic Rebecca Cooke No documented position in our sources

Republican Derrick Van Orden

Supports law enforcement and fentanyl classification

Van Orden emphasizes strong backing for law enforcement agencies and officers. He has supported legislation to classify illicit fentanyl as a controlled substance and voted to allow the deportation of unauthorized immigrants convicted of driving while impaired.

  • Supported federal legislation classifying illicit fentanyl as a controlled substance.
  • Advocates for full funding, equipment, and training resources for police departments.
  • Voted for the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act to make impaired driving a deportable offense for unauthorized immigrants.

“He has brought together leaders across Wisconsin’s Third Congressional District to hear the challenges they face in protecting and serving our communities—leading to his support for legislation that classifies fentanyl as a controlled substance.”

“In Congress, Derrick continues to stand with the men and women in blue, supporting legislation that combats crime, strengthens law enforcement, and ensures officers have the tools and resources they need to keep our communities safe.”

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

WI-03 House Election Winner

70.5% Democrats
28.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 70.5REPUBLICANS 28.0

Kalshi ↗

WI-03 House winner?

71.0% Rebecca Cooke
29.0% Derrick Van Orden
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16COOKE 71.0PARTY 63.0ORDEN 29.0PARTY 16.0

Kalshi ↗

WI-03 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Rebecca Cooke
1.0% Melvin Marin
1.0% Emily Berge
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16COOKE 99.0BERGE 1.0MARIN 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.