Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Wisconsin Likely R

Wisconsin — 1st District

Portrait of Mitchell Berman

Democrat

Mitchell Berman

The 2026 election for Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District features four-term Republican incumbent Bryan Steil facing Democratic challenger Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse and union member. The race is rated Likely Republican by The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill, and Solid Republican by Inside Elections. Key issues driving the matchup include cost of living, healthcare reform, border security, labor policy, government ethics, and reproductive rights.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
64.5%
Democrats
33.0%
Kalshi ↗
Bryan Steil
67.0%
Mitchell Berman
35.0%
Kalshi ↗
Bryan Steil
99.0%
Connor Walleck
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Mitchell Berman
99.0%
Miguel Aranda
1.0%
Peter Burgelis
1.0%
Lorenzo Santos
1.0%
Travis Beckius
1.0%
Gage Stills
1.0%
Enrique Casiano
1.0%
Randy Bryce
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Steil advocates cutting federal spending and regulations to reduce costs, whereas Berman focuses on raising the minimum wage, capping price gouging, and expanding worker tax credits.

Democratic Mitchell Berman

Supports corporate accountability and wage growth

Berman focuses on lowering costs for working families by raising the federal minimum wage, expanding the Child Tax Credit, and banning corporate price-gouging and hidden junk fees. He advocates for housing assistance, lumber tariff reductions, and stopping private equity firms from buying single-family homes.

  • Raise the federal minimum wage and expand the Child Tax Credit
  • Crack down on corporate grocery price-gouging, rent-price fixing, and junk fees
  • Provide down payment assistance and ban private equity single-family home purchases

“Washington is broken. Too often, politicians make big promises in Wisconsin, then they go to Washington and only look out for themselves.”

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports cutting spending and regulation

Steil advocates for lowering inflation and consumer costs by curbing federal spending, cutting regulations, and boosting domestic energy production. He has supported major fiscal legislation, including H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) and the Limit, Save, Grow Act.

  • Voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1) and Limit, Save, Grow Act
  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge against tax increases
  • Proposes cutting wasteful government spending and regulatory costs

“Steil is working to lower costs by cutting wasteful government spending, unleashing American energy, and reducing regulatory costs.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Steil favors market-driven reforms and reducing federal oversight, while Berman supports expanding ACA subsidies, creating a public option, and capping drug costs.

Democratic Mitchell Berman

Supports ACA expansion and public option

Berman draws on 23 years of healthcare experience as an ER nurse to advocate for expanding ACA subsidies, creating a public option, and allowing Medicare to negotiate more drug prices. He seeks to cap out-of-pocket prescription costs, make $35 insulin available to all, enforce strict nurse staffing standards, and restrict private equity ownership of hospitals.

  • Restore ACA subsidies and reverse Medicaid cuts
  • Cap out-of-pocket prescription drug costs and expand Medicare drug price negotiation
  • Create a public option and establish mandatory bedside nurse staffing standards

“At the bedside, Mitchell has seen firsthand the fear in his patients' eyes, worried about losing their healthcare or being forced to choose between groceries and life-saving medication.”

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports market reforms and lower drug prices

Steil advocates for healthcare reform aimed at reducing costs and increasing accessibility while keeping decisions between patients and doctors rather than federal bureaucrats. He supports lowering prescription drug prices and protecting access to care.

  • Supports efforts to lower prescription drug costs
  • Advocates patient and doctor control over health decisions
  • Supported terminating the CDC foreign traveler vaccine mandate

“We need reforms that make health care more affordable and more accessible. We need patients and doctors in control, not unelected bureaucrats in Washington, D.C.”

03

Social Security and Medicare

medium salience

Steil supports protecting current benefit levels and solvency, while Berman proposes lifting the payroll tax cap on high earners to preserve benefits.

Democratic Mitchell Berman

Supports expanding high-earner tax contributions

Berman pledges to block all cuts to Social Security and Medicare while protecting worker pensions. To ensure funding, he advocates lifting the payroll tax cap so high earners contribute on all income.

  • Block cuts to Social Security and Medicare
  • Lift the payroll tax cap on high earners
  • Defend worker pensions and help seniors age at home

“I'll block cuts to Social Security, defend workers’ pensions, and lift the cap so high earners pay in on all of their income.”

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports protecting Social Security and Medicare

Steil emphasizes protecting Social Security and Medicare for current seniors and ensuring long-term solvency. He opposes cuts to these programs and supports measures to lower prescription drug costs for seniors.

  • Pledges to protect Social Security and Medicare solvency
  • Supports lowering prescription drug costs for seniors

“Steil strongly supports Social Security and Medicare. He is committed to protecting these vital programs for older Americans and those who rely on them.”

04

Labor and manufacturing

medium salience

Steil emphasizes local workforce training free from federal mandates, whereas Berman champions the PRO Act and union rights.

Democratic Mitchell Berman

Supports PRO Act and union rights

As a longtime union member, Berman advocates passing the PRO Act to strengthen collective bargaining rights and penalize employer retaliation. He supports giving preference in federal contracts and tax incentives to companies that maintain headquarters and jobs in the U.S.

  • Pass the PRO Act to protect collective bargaining
  • Condition federal contracts and tax incentives on domestic hiring and headquarters
  • Expand apprenticeships and skilled trades training

“Unions built the middle class. I've been a union member at every organized facility I've ever worked, starting as a Teamster in college and still working as a union nurse today.”

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports local workforce development and deregulation

Steil emphasizes workforce development, technical education, and returning education decisions to local levels to support Wisconsin manufacturing. He opposes federal mandates that increase costs for businesses.

  • Promote technical colleges and local workforce training
  • Limit federal mandates that increase costs on educational and business institutions

“Southeast Wisconsin has the best workforce, not just in the country, but in the world.”

05

Government ethics and campaign finance

medium salience

Steil focuses on election integrity laws like the SAVE Act, while Berman rejects corporate PAC money and advocates banning congressional stock trading.

Democratic Mitchell Berman

Supports banning PAC money and stock trading

Berman pledges to reject corporate PAC money and advocates overturning Citizens United to eliminate dark money. He supports banning stock trading for members of Congress, enforcing Supreme Court ethics codes, and closing the lobbying revolving door.

  • Refuses corporate PAC money and supports overturning Citizens United
  • Ban individual stock trading by members of Congress and executive branch leaders
  • Implement mandatory ethics rules and transparency for Supreme Court justices

“I don't take corporate PAC money, and I never will. We need to get money out of politics, crack down on politicians using their positions to line their own pockets, and make Congress work for the people again.”

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports voter ID and congressional transparency

As Chair of the House Administration Committee, Steil focuses on election administration and government transparency. He voted for the SAVE Act to mandate proof of citizenship for voting and for the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring proof of citizenship for federal voting
  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405)
06

Reproductive rights

medium salience

Steil identifies as pro-life while supporting IVF access, whereas Berman supports federal legislation to protect abortion access and fund maternity care.

Democratic Mitchell Berman

Supports federal reproductive freedom protections

Drawing on his experience as an ER nurse, Berman views reproductive healthcare as a decision strictly between women and their doctors. He advocates for protecting abortion access nationally and funding rural maternity care and OB wards.

  • Codify federal reproductive freedom and abortion access
  • Fund rural maternity care and adjust Medicaid rates to keep OB units open

“As an ER nurse, I know that healthcare decisions belong to patients and the people who care for them. We need to protect reproductive freedom and a woman's right to reproductive health care.”

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports anti-abortion policies and IVF access

Steil identifies as a strong supporter of life while also expressing support for access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment.

  • Identifies as a strong supporter of life
  • Supports access to IVF treatment

“He supports access to IVF and is a strong supporter of life.”

07

Veterans affairs

low salience

Steil favors VA system reform to expand healthcare options, while Berman opposes VA privatization and advocates increased internal staffing.

Democratic Mitchell Berman

Supports VA staffing expansion and Richard Star Act

Having worked over a decade as a nurse at the VA, Berman opposes VA privatization and calls for increased staffing to reduce appointment delays. He also supports passing the Richard Star Act to grant full combat-injury retirement and disability pay.

  • Increase VA staffing and oppose privatization of veteran healthcare
  • Pass the Richard Star Act to restore full retirement and disability pay for combat-injured veterans

“I spent over a decade caring for veterans at the VA. I'll fight to make sure our veterans get the health care, benefits, and respect they were promised.”

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports VA reform and healthcare options

Steil advocates for reducing wait times and bureaucratic delays at the VA while increasing private healthcare choices for veterans. He emphasizes proper funding for active duty military and mental health services.

  • Reform the VA system to reduce long wait times and bureaucracy
  • Ensure active-duty servicemembers and veterans receive adequate mental health care

“The current system is not working for our veterans. Some are forced to deal with long wait times and poor service. That is simply unacceptable.”

08

Energy and environment

low salience

Steil advocates expanding domestic oil and gas production, whereas Berman prioritizes clean energy investment, PFAS cleanup, and making corporate data centers pay for infrastructure.

Democratic Mitchell Berman

Supports clean energy investment and pollution enforcement

Berman advocates investing in renewable energy, upgrading the electrical grid, and cleaning up PFAS chemicals while holding polluters accountable. He demands that corporate data centers pay for their own energy and water infrastructure rather than shifting costs to taxpayers.

  • Invest in clean energy, grid resilience, and PFAS cleanup
  • Require data centers to fund their own power plants and water infrastructure
  • Protect public lands from drilling, mining, and logging

“Climate change is real, and it is affecting our weather, farming, and ecosystems here in Wisconsin. We need to invest in clean energy, build a more resilient grid, protect Lake Michigan and our drinking water from contamination, clean up PFAS, and make the polluters pay for it.”

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports expanding domestic energy production

Steil supports boosting domestic energy output to lower household utility and gas costs. He voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to ease permitting and expand oil, natural gas, and coal production.

  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1)
  • Supports expanding domestic oil, natural gas, and mineral production
09

Border security and immigration

high salience

Steil supports strict border enforcement and deportations, whereas Berman has no documented position in the sources.

Democratic Mitchell Berman No documented position in our sources

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports strict border enforcement and deportation

Steil prioritizes border security to combat human trafficking and halt the flow of illegal drugs like fentanyl. His legislative record includes votes to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, pass the Secure the Border Act (H.R. 2), enforce the Laken Riley Act, and allow deportation for illegal immigrants convicted of DUIs.

  • Voted for the Secure the Border Act (H.R. 2) and Laken Riley Act (S. 5)
  • Voted to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas
  • Voted for DUI deportation bill (H.R. 875)

“Steil has worked to stop the open border policies that allowed the flow of illicit drugs, like deadly fentanyl, into our country.”

10

Second Amendment

low salience

Steil opposes gun control measures to defend Second Amendment rights, whereas Berman has no documented position in the sources.

Democratic Mitchell Berman No documented position in our sources

Republican Bryan Steil

Supports Second Amendment rights

Steil opposes new restrictions on firearm ownership and pledges to protect Second Amendment rights for law-abiding citizens.

  • Defends Second Amendment gun ownership rights

“The Second Amendment provides citizens with the right to bear arms. I will defend law abiding citizens’ Second Amendment rights.”

11

Rural affairs and agriculture

low salience

Berman supports crop insurance, dairy safety nets, and expanding rural broadband, whereas Steil has no explicit standalone rural platform documented in the sources.

Democratic Mitchell Berman

Supports family farms and rural infrastructure

Berman supports protecting crop insurance, dairy safety nets, and SNAP funding to support family farmers and rural families. He advocates expanding rural broadband and preserving rural hospitals and emergency services.

  • Protect crop insurance, dairy support programs, and SNAP funding
  • Expand rural high-speed broadband access
  • Keep rural hospitals and maternity wards open

“Understanding that farming isn’t just a job but a way of life, I’ll stand up for family farms by protecting crop insurance and programs that provide support for dairy farmers in bad years.”

Republican Bryan Steil No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

WI-01 House Election Winner

64.5% Republicans
33.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 64.5DEMOCRATS 33.0

Kalshi ↗

WI-01 House winner?

67.0% Bryan Steil
35.0% Mitchell Berman
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16STEIL 67.0PARTY 54.0PARTY 45.0BERMAN 35.0

Kalshi ↗

WI-01 Republican nominee?

99.0% Bryan Steil
1.0% Connor Walleck
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16STEIL 99.0WALLECK 1.0

Kalshi ↗

WI-01 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Mitchell Berman
1.0% Miguel Aranda
1.0% Peter Burgelis

+5 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16BERMAN 99.0SANTOS 1.0STILLS 1.0BURGELIS 1.0ARANDA 1.0BRYCE 1.0BECKIUS 1.0CASIANO 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.