Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Washington Likely D

Washington — 8th District

Portrait of Spencer Meline

Republican

Spencer Meline

Washington's 8th Congressional District 2026 matchup features four-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Kim Schrier facing Republican challenger Spencer Meline, a small business owner. The district, which spans eastern King County suburbs across the Cascades into rural Central Washington, hinges on inflation and cost of living, public lands and wildfire management, border security, and crime. Major nonpartisan race ratings characterize the seat as safely or likely Democratic, with Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rating it Solid Democratic, Sabato's Crystal Ball rating it Safe Democratic, and Decision Desk rating it Likely Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
97.1%
Republicans
2.3%
Kalshi ↗
Kim Schrier
94.4%
Spencer Meline
5.5%
Kalshi ↗
Kim Schrier
99.0%
Spencer Meline
91.0%
Trinh Ha
2.0%
Andres Valleza
1.0%
Keith Arnold
1.0%
Bob Hagglund
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Meline seeks to reduce cost-of-living pressures through federal spending restraint and deregulation, whereas Schrier favors federal investments in infrastructure, middle-class wages, and a clean energy economy.

Democratic Kim Schrier

Supports middle-class investments and clean energy

Schrier advocates for policy that supports livable wages, small business growth, and middle-class income security while investing in clean energy jobs and agricultural exports. She has voted against Republican budget reconciliation and debt limit packages while supporting bipartisan infrastructure measures.

  • Voted Nay on the 2025 reconciliation bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) and 2023 Limit, Save, Grow Act.
  • Supports tax policies that reward hard work, support small businesses, and incentivize clean energy jobs.
  • Advocates federal investments in Washington State University agricultural research, farm bill safety nets, and rural export infrastructure.

“The best measure of our economy is whether families have income security because our country does best when we have a thriving middle class.”

“I support fair trade, not free trade. We need to be sure that we are exporting goods, not jobs, overseas.”

Republican Spencer Meline

Supports fiscal restraint and deregulation

Meline argues that federal overspending and overregulation are squeezing working families through higher prices for groceries, energy, and housing. He advocates restoring federal fiscal discipline, lowering energy costs, and empowering local small businesses rather than distant bureaucracies.

  • Opposes reckless federal spending that fuels inflation and supports responsible federal budgeting.
  • Calls for cutting unnecessary regulations to lower costs and empower local job creators.
  • Advocates protecting access to affordable energy to bring down everyday living expenses.

“Small businesses are the backbone of Washington’s 8th District. When small businesses are strong, communities are strong, workers have opportunity, and the American Dream is within reach.”

“Working families are being squeezed from every direction groceries, energy, and housing all cost more. When Washington overspends and overregulates, families pay the price.”

02

Public lands and environment

high salience

Schrier prioritizes federal climate policy, clean energy subsidies, and carbon emission reductions, while Meline focuses on active forest management to reduce wildfire risks and preserve access to public lands.

Democratic Kim Schrier

Supports 100% clean energy transition

Schrier treats climate change as an urgent crisis requiring evidence-based solutions, active emission reductions, and protection of public lands. She advocates shifting federal subsidies away from fossil fuel companies toward clean energy industries.

  • Voted Nay on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1).
  • Pledges to protect public lands access and defend clean air and water protections.
  • Proposes redirecting oil and gas subsidies toward clean energy to transition to a 100% clean energy economy.

“Climate change is real and we need to take immediate action.”

“I will champion responsible and effective action to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change impacts. I will refocus subsidies away from oil and gas companies and toward clean energy to promote the transition to a 100% clean energy economy within our lifetime.”

Republican Spencer Meline

Supports active forest management and access

Meline emphasizes active stewardship of public lands, warning that passive preservation should not be confused with conservation. His priorities focus on reducing wildfire risks through active forest management and maintaining trail and road access.

  • Advocates active forest management to mitigate catastrophic wildfire risks.
  • Pledges to maintain trails and access roads to ensure public lands remain open for future generations.
  • Frames public lands stewardship around active management rather than strict preservation.

“Responsible stewardship means more than preservation. It means reducing catastrophic wildfire risk, supporting active forest management, maintaining trails and access roads, and ensuring these lands remain accessible for future generations.”

“We can’t confuse neglect with conservation.”

03

Immigration and border security

high salience

Meline prioritizes border enforcement, law enforcement, and stopping cartels, whereas Schrier emphasizes comprehensive reform, DACA protections, and expanded visas despite voting for the Laken Riley Act.

Democratic Kim Schrier

Supports comprehensive reform and legal pathways

Schrier supports comprehensive immigration reform with a bipartisan path to citizenship, expanded agricultural and tech visas, and legal protections for DREAMers. While she voted Nay on the Secure the Border Act and SAVE Act, she crossed party lines to vote Yea on the Laken Riley Act.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act requiring DHS detention for noncitizens arrested for burglary or theft.
  • Voted Nay on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2) and Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22).
  • Pledges to codify DACA and the DREAM Act while opposing southern border wall spending.

“I will join with my Washington state colleagues in pursuing comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship on a bipartisan basis.”

Republican Spencer Meline

Supports border enforcement and cartel crackdown

Meline advocates securing the U.S. border to halt drug trafficking and cartel activity while enforcing existing immigration laws consistently. He supports establishing a stable, legal workforce system for local agriculture without rewarding rule-breakers.

  • Calls for securing the border to stop human trafficking and cartel operations.
  • Demands consistent enforcement of immigration laws without rewarding illegal entry.
  • Supports a stable and legal workforce framework for local farms and ranches.

“We need a secure border so we can stop trafficking and cartel activity and enforce immigration law consistently.”

“Immigration policy shouldn’t punish those who followed the rules or reward those who broke them.”

04

Public safety and crime

medium salience

Meline advocates increasing funding and backing for police to combat open drug use, fentanyl, and repeat offenders, while Schrier emphasizes federal gun control laws and public health approaches.

Democratic Kim Schrier

Supports gun safety legislation and research

Schrier approaches public safety through gun violence prevention, advocating universal background checks, red flag laws, and restrictions on military-style weapons. She voted against making DUI convictions grounds for noncitizen deportation.

  • Voted Nay on H.R. 875 regarding DUI deportation for noncitizens.
  • Supports universal background checks, national Extreme Risk Protection Orders, and repealing the Dickey Amendment.
  • Pledges to reject campaign contributions from the NRA and gun manufacturers.

“As a mom and pediatrician, I know how important it is to take action on common sense gun safety.”

Republican Spencer Meline

Supports law enforcement funding and fentanyl prosecution

Meline centers his public safety platform on backing law enforcement officers with the tools, training, and funding needed to protect communities. He focuses on tackling open drug use in public parks, rising fentanyl deaths, and repeat criminal offenders.

  • Advocates proper funding, tools, and backing for law enforcement personnel.
  • Targets open drug use in public parks and rising fentanyl overdose deaths.
  • Supports stricter measures against repeat criminal offenders cycling through the legal system.

“Public safety starts with supporting well-trained and properly funded law enforcement. Officers need the tools, training, and backing to do their jobs effectively and keep our communities secure.”

05

Education and family policy

medium salience

Meline prioritizes parental empowerment and homeschooling, whereas Schrier focuses on increased federal funding for public schools, STEM programs, and higher education assistance.

Democratic Kim Schrier

Supports public school funding and STEM

Schrier emphasizes strengthening public schools through STEM investments, targeted aid to disadvantaged schools, and expanding early childhood education. She advocates making higher education and trade schools affordable through grants and no-interest loans.

  • Endorsed by the National Education Association (NEA).
  • Supports federal resources for public school STEM programs and early childhood education.
  • Advocates no-interest student loans and grants for higher education and trade school students.

Republican Spencer Meline

Supports parental empowerment and family values

Meline highlights his personal experience homeschooling his four children and advocates policy that empowers parents in education. He emphasizes strengthening family life, faith, and personal responsibility as central to community well-being.

  • Advocates empowering parents to play a direct and meaningful role in their children's education.
  • Opposes policies that replace or diminish parental authority in raising children.
  • Centers platform on strengthening family foundations, faith, and personal responsibility.

“That starts with strengthening the foundation of family life where parents are empowered, children are raised with strong values, and communities are built on responsibility, faith, and hard work.”

06

Housing

medium salience
Democratic Kim Schrier No documented position in our sources

Republican Spencer Meline

Supports restricting Wall Street institutional buyers

Meline targets home affordability by opposing Wall Street institutional ownership of single-family housing. He supports legislative measures to prevent large investment firms from outbidding young families and first-time home buyers.

  • Proposes restricting large institutional investors from purchasing single-family residential properties.
  • Aims to protect first-time buyers and young families from Wall Street competition in local real estate markets.

“I support measures that prevent large institutional investors from crowding out families in the single-family housing market and pricing out first-time buyers.”

07

Healthcare

medium salience

Democratic Kim Schrier

Supports ACA stabilization and Medicare buy-in

As a pediatrician, Schrier focuses on stabilizing ACA health insurance exchanges, bringing down prescription medication costs, and creating a public Medicare buy-in option on a sliding scale. She strongly supports required childhood immunizations for school attendance.

  • Advocates creating a public option allowing all Americans to buy into Medicare on a sliding scale.
  • Supports ACA market stabilization, lower prescription drug costs, and investments in preventative care.
  • Supports required child vaccinations for preschool and elementary school attendance following CDC and AAP schedules.

“The first step must be to stabilize the health insurance markets and the state health exchanges under the ACA.”

“I will push to let all Americans buy into Medicare on a sliding scale.”

Republican Spencer Meline No documented position in our sources
08

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Democratic Kim Schrier

Supports federal abortion rights and Planned Parenthood

Schrier strongly supports a woman's right to choose abortion and opposes federal or state restrictions on reproductive healthcare. She advocates increased federal funding for Planned Parenthood and mandated insurance coverage for contraception.

  • Endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund.
  • Opposes any legislative effort to limit abortion rights or reproductive health choices.
  • Advocates full insurance coverage for contraception and increased funding for Planned Parenthood.

“As a doctor and a woman, I trust women to make their own personal decisions about health and family planning. I have always supported a woman’s right to choose.”

Republican Spencer Meline No documented position in our sources
09

Government reform and voting rights

low salience

Democratic Kim Schrier

Supports campaign finance reform and voting access

Schrier supports passing a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United and curb corporate political spending. She voted Nay on the SAVE Act, opposing documentary proof of citizenship requirements for federal election registration.

  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration.
  • Supports a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United.
  • Advocates modernizing voting infrastructure and securing election systems against foreign interference.
Republican Spencer Meline No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

WA-08 House Election Winner

97.1% Democrats
2.3% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 97.1REPUBLICANS 2.3

Kalshi ↗

WA-08 House winner?

94.4% Kim Schrier
5.5% Spencer Meline
255075100AUG 3AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16PARTY 94.4SCHRIER 94.4MELINE 5.5PARTY 4.0

Kalshi ↗

WA-08 primary: who will advance?

99.0% Kim Schrier
91.0% Spencer Meline
2.0% Trinh Ha

+3 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16SCHRIER 99.0MELINE 91.0HA 2.0HAGGLUND 1.0VALLEZA 1.0ARNOLD 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.