Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Washington Likely R

Washington — 5th District

Portrait of Michael Baumgartner

Republican

Michael Baumgartner

In Washington's 5th Congressional District, first-term Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner faces Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy in a rematch of their 2024 general election contest. Baumgartner advanced from the August 4, 2026, top-two primary with 47.4% of the vote, while Conroy finished second with 18.9% in a multi-candidate field. Major race rating outlets classify the seat as Solid Republican or Safe Republican, with Decision Desk rating it Likely Republican. The race hinges on sharp policy contrasts regarding economic regulations, border enforcement, healthcare expansion, and federal legislative votes from the 119th Congress.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
80.5%
Democrats
19.3%
Kalshi ↗
Michael Baumgartner
82.0%
Carmela Conroy
16.0%
Kalshi ↗
Carmela Conroy
99.0%
Michael Baumgartner
97.0%
Kevin Fagan
8.0%
Michael McGarr
5.0%
Matthew Hayes
5.0%
Bajun Mavalwalla
2.0%
Kyle Ursey
1.0%
David Womack
1.0%
Andrew Bartleson
1.0%
Anthony Jensen
1.0%
Nate Powell
1.0%
Richard Freudenberg
1.0%
Ann Marie Danimus
0.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Conroy supports federal minimum wage increases and ending tariffs to lower consumer costs, while Baumgartner emphasizes reducing government spending, avoiding tax increases, and cutting regulations.

Democratic Carmela Conroy

Supports minimum wage increase and ending tariffs

Conroy focuses on lowering consumer costs by ending federal tariffs and enacting an inflation-indexed minimum wage with paid leave. She advocates for worker protections and tax fairness while seeking to prevent large corporations from socializing economic risk.

  • Pass an inflation-indexed federal minimum wage law with paid time off and paid sick leave
  • End tariffs to cut prices for consumers, importers, and exporters
  • Prohibit members of Congress from individual stock trading while in office

“End the tariff chaos. That will cut prices for consumers and for businesses, both importers and exporters.”

“Pass an inflation-indexed federal minimum wage law with paid time off and paid sick leave.”

Republican Michael Baumgartner

Supports spending cuts and tax control

Baumgartner emphasizes balancing the federal budget, reducing government spending, and lowering regulatory burdens on business. In the 119th Congress, he voted for H.R. 1 (the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) addressing tax policy and the federal debt limit.

  • Voted for H.R. 1 reconciliation legislation addressing tax policy and statutory debt limits
  • Opposes tax and fee increases, prioritizing federal budget cuts to curb spending
  • Promotes job creation through deregulation and removing hindrances to enterprise

“We don’t need more taxes; we need to reduce spending.”

02

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

Conroy supports defunding immigration detention facilities and facilitating humane releases, whereas Baumgartner voted for federal legislation requiring mandatory detention and deportation for undocumented immigrants arrested for theft or DUI offenses.

Democratic Carmela Conroy

Supports humane border release and defunding detention

Conroy advocates refocusing Department of Homeland Security resources strictly to official ports of entry and physical borders. She proposes defunding immigration detention centers as quickly as possible and empowering FEMA to execute humane releases for detainees not facing criminal charges.

  • Defund the construction and operation of immigration detention centers
  • Redirect DHS border security assets exclusively to ports of entry and borders
  • Transfer immigration detainees facing criminal charges to public safety authorities while releasing non-criminal detainees humanely

“Defund construction and operation of detention centers as fast as humanely possible.”

Republican Michael Baumgartner

Supports mandatory detention and deportation laws

Baumgartner supports strict immigration enforcement and border security measures. In the 119th Congress, he voted for the Laken Riley Act to detain unauthorized immigrants arrested for theft crimes and voted to make driving while impaired grounds for deportation.

  • Voted for S. 5 (Laken Riley Act) requiring DHS to detain unauthorized immigrants arrested for burglary, theft, or shoplifting
  • Voted for H.R. 875 making driving while impaired grounds for deportation or inadmissibility
  • Supports state legal standing to challenge federal immigration enforcement failures

“The Laken Riley Act (S.5) was a bill passed by the 119th Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump (R) on 1/29/2025, which required the Department of Homeland Security to detain certain individuals residing in the United States without legal permission who have been arrested for burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting...”

03

Elections and Voting Legislation

medium salience

Conroy focuses on preserving ballot access and ethics rules prohibiting congressional stock trading, while Baumgartner voted for federal legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote.

Democratic Carmela Conroy

Supports ballot access and stock trading bans

Conroy favors protecting voter access to the ballot and opposes restrictive election measures. She also champions ethics reform by banning stock trading for sitting members of Congress.

  • Ensure broad public access to the ballot
  • Prohibit members of Congress from holding individual stocks

“Prohibit members of Congress from stock trading, requiring them to divest individual stocks in favor of mutual funds or other exchange-traded funds as long as they are running for or in office.”

Republican Michael Baumgartner

Supports voter citizenship verification

Baumgartner advocates stricter federal voter registration standards. In 2025, he voted for the SAVE Act to mandate documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal election voter registration.

  • Voted for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) requiring proof of citizenship to register for federal elections

“The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or the SAVE Act (H.R. 22), was a bill passed by the House of Representatives on 4/10/2025 that required individuals to provide documentary proof of citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections.”

04

Education and LGBTQ+ Sports Policy

medium salience

Conroy centers education policy on public school funding and church-state separation, whereas Baumgartner voted to bar biological males from competing in female school athletic programs.

Democratic Carmela Conroy

Supports public school funding and church-state separation

Conroy advocates restoring federal public education funds, especially for special education needs. She opposes using public funds for private schooling or religious institutions in violation of church-state separation.

  • Restore funding for public education and special educational programs
  • Keep public funds strictly within public schools
  • Uphold the separation of church and state in federal education funding

“Restore funding for public education, including support for children with special educational needs. Ensure public funds are not used in violation of the separation of church and state.”

Republican Michael Baumgartner

Supports restricting transgender participation in women's sports

Baumgartner supports traditional public education investments alongside restrictions on school athletic participation based on biological sex. In 2025, he voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act.

  • Voted for H.R. 28 barring biological males from participating in women's athletic programs
  • Highlighted past state legislative achievements lowering public college tuition costs

“The Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28) was a bill passed by the House of Representatives on 1/14/2025 that would prohibit school athletic programs from allowing individuals whose sex was male to participate in programs for women or girls.”

05

Government Transparency and Epstein Files

low salience

Conroy urges Department of Justice prosecution of unindicted co-conspirators in the Epstein case, while Baumgartner voted for statutory public disclosure of all unclassified Epstein investigative records.

Democratic Carmela Conroy

Supports prosecuting unindicted Epstein co-conspirators

Conroy supports federal investigations into high-level misconduct and urges the Department of Justice to take legal action against unindicted co-conspirators named in the Jeffrey Epstein files.

  • Direct the DOJ to act against unindicted co-conspirators in the Epstein case
  • Utilize GAO oversight to enforce government accountability

“Following the Government Accounting Office’s investigation, direct the Department of Justice to take action against the unindicted coconspirators named in the Epstein files.”

Republican Michael Baumgartner

Supports full release of Epstein files

Baumgartner supports public disclosure of federal records concerning Jeffrey Epstein. In the 119th Congress, he voted in favor of the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

  • Voted for H.R. 4405 requiring the DOJ to publish unclassified investigative records on Jeffrey Epstein

“The Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R.4405) was a bill passed by the 119th Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump (R) on 11/19/2025, which required the Department of Justice to publish all unclassified records, documents, communications, and investigative materials related to Jeffrey Epstein's investigation...”

06

Healthcare

high salience

Conroy advocates expanding Medicaid to all children and permitting federal drug price negotiations, whereas Baumgartner has no detailed healthcare stance in the source materials.

Democratic Carmela Conroy

Supports expanding Medicaid and Medicare drug negotiation

Conroy proposes expanding public healthcare coverage by extending Medicaid to all children up to age 19 and restoring Medicare and Medicaid funding. She advocates empowering all federally funded health programs to negotiate prescription drug prices to protect rural hospitals and lower patient costs.

  • Extend Medicaid coverage to all children from birth to their 19th birthday
  • Allow Medicare, Medicaid, and the VA to negotiate lower drug prices
  • Restore Medicare and Medicaid funding levels while eliminating administrative barriers

“Extend Medicaid coverage to all children from birth to their 19th birthdays.”

Republican Michael Baumgartner No documented position in our sources
07

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

high salience

Conroy actively campaigns to codify Roe v. Wade and prevent federal abortion restrictions, whereas Baumgartner has no documented position on abortion in the provided sources.

Democratic Carmela Conroy

Supports codifying federal abortion rights

Conroy strongly opposes federal abortion restrictions and state-level travel limits on healthcare. She campaigns on codifying Roe v. Wade to protect individual privacy and ensure full access to reproductive healthcare.

  • Codify constitutional privacy and reproductive rights into federal law
  • Oppose federal abortion bans and state travel or treatment restrictions
  • Protect healthcare providers and patients receiving emergency reproductive services

“Our next Representative will either vote for a total nationwide abortion ban, or fight to codify our basic human rights.”

Republican Michael Baumgartner No documented position in our sources
08

Foreign Policy and Military Oversight

medium salience

Conroy calls for restricting unauthorized military actions while supporting aid to foreign allies, whereas Baumgartner has no documented position detailed in the provided context beyond his committee assignments.

Democratic Carmela Conroy

Supports military accountability and foreign partner aid

Conroy advocates strict oversight of executive branch military decisions and defunding unauthorized foreign military operations. At the same time, she supports foreign aid for democratic allies such as Ukraine and Israel.

  • Defund aggressive and illegal military operations and planning
  • Hold executive branch officials accountable for unlawful foreign military actions
  • Provide defense assistance to foreign partners, including Ukraine and Israel

“Defund aggressive and otherwise illegal military operations, support, and planning.”

Republican Michael Baumgartner No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

WA-05 House Election Winner

80.5% Republicans
19.3% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 80.5DEMOCRATS 19.3

Kalshi ↗

WA-05 House winner?

82.0% Michael Baumgartner
16.0% Carmela Conroy
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 85.0BAUMGARTNER 82.0PARTY 16.0CONROY 16.0

Kalshi ↗

WA-05 primary: who will advance?

99.0% Carmela Conroy
97.0% Michael Baumgartner
8.0% Kevin Fagan

+9 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16CONROY 99.0BAUMGARTNER 97.0FAGAN 8.0MCGARR 5.0HAYES 5.0MAVALWALLA 2.0POWELL 1.0WOMACK 1.0JENSEN 1.0URSEY 1.0FREUDENBERG 1.0BARTLESON 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.