Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Washington Safe R

Washington — 4th District

Portrait of Amanda McKinney

Republican

Amanda McKinney

The 2026 general election for Washington's 4th Congressional District features Democratic nominee John Duresky and Republican nominee Amanda McKinney competing for an open seat following the retirement of incumbent Republican Representative Dan Newhouse. Duresky, a retired Air Force Major and Hanford worker, emphasizes cost-of-living relief, agricultural labor access, government ethics reform, and healthcare expansion. McKinney, a Yakima County Commissioner and former banker endorsed by Donald Trump, runs on an America First platform centered on border enforcement, deregulation, water rights defense, and fiscal discipline. Nonpartisan election handicappers including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill rate the general election as Solid Republican or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
92.0%
Democrats
8.0%
Kalshi ↗
Amanda McKinney
92.6%
John Duresky
4.1%
Kalshi ↗
John Duresky
99.2%
Amanda McKinney
99.0%
Wesley Meier
3.4%
Dan Newhouse
1.0%
Matt Boehnke
1.0%
Jerrod Sessler
0.1%

All markets →

01

Agriculture and Water Rights

high salience

Duresky focuses on eliminating tariffs and expanding agricultural labor access, whereas McKinney emphasizes rolling back federal environmental regulations and protecting senior water rights.

Democratic John Duresky

Supports tariff removal and ag labor

Duresky prioritizes protecting Central Washington's agricultural economy by eliminating tariffs that increase costs for farmers and consumers. He advocates for protecting irrigation rights, tailoring the Farm Bill to small and mid-sized operations, and establishing immigration policies that secure agricultural labor.

  • Remove tariffs that increase costs for regional farmers and consumers
  • Protect irrigation and water rights for agricultural producers
  • Ensure the Farm Bill supports small and mid-size operations over corporate agriculture
  • Defend agricultural labor access through immigration reform

“Remove harmful tariffs that hurt our farmers and raise prices for consumers”

“Protect irrigation and water rights for agricultural producers”

Republican Amanda McKinney

Defends senior water rights and ag

McKinney advocates for rolling back federal regulations on farmers and protecting local control over water policy. She supports senior water rights, expanded water storage, local initiatives like the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan, and prioritizing domestic food production.

  • Defend senior water rights and expand regional water storage
  • Roll back federal regulations on farmers, dairies, and ranchers
  • Support the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan and local water banks
  • Prioritize American food security and domestic agricultural production

“As a county commissioner, Amanda pushed back against federal overreach that threatened farmers, dairies, and ranchers with one-size-fits-all regulations written by people who have never worked the land.”

“A strong agricultural sector is essential to food security, economic independence, and national security. Amanda believes America should feed itself first.”

02

Economy, Taxation, and Affordability

high salience

Duresky seeks to lower costs through tax reform on the wealthy and minimum wage hikes, while McKinney focuses on reining in federal spending and cutting taxes.

Democratic John Duresky

Supports tax reform and worker protections

Duresky seeks to lower living costs by reforming the tax code to target wealthy tax loopholes and restoring congressional authority over tariffs. He supports raising the federal minimum wage, protecting labor unions, and safeguarding Social Security from budget cuts.

  • Close tax loopholes including stepped-up basis and carried interest
  • Restore congressional authority over tariffs to reduce consumer costs
  • Raise the federal minimum wage and protect workers' right to organize
  • Invest in regional infrastructure including roads, bridges, and broadband
  • Protect Social Security from budget cuts or privatization proposals

“My priority is to make life more affordable for working people.”

“Reform the tax code to close loopholes like stepped-up basis and carried interest”

Republican Amanda McKinney

Favors fiscal discipline and spending cuts

McKinney emphasizes fiscal restraint and reducing federal spending to curb inflation and lower costs. Drawing on her banking background, she advocates for protecting working families and small businesses from excessive taxation and regulatory burdens.

  • Enforce fiscal discipline and eliminate wasteful federal spending
  • Protect small businesses and working families from tax increases
  • Apply free-market principles to address cost-of-living challenges

“Amanda McKinney believes Washington spends too much and delivers too little.”

“In Congress, she will fight for fiscal discipline, transparency, and policies that respect working families and small businesses.”

03

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

Duresky advocates for border security paired with legal pathways for long-term residents and ICE reform, whereas McKinney supports strict border enforcement aligned with Donald Trump's policies.

Democratic John Duresky

Supports border security and citizenship pathway

Duresky advocates for a balanced approach combining border enforcement with a humane pathway to legal status and citizenship for long-time residents. Citing his civil service background, he calls for structural reform of ICE and aligning immigration policy with agricultural labor requirements.

  • Maintain secure borders while creating a fair pathway to legal status and citizenship
  • Enact major structural reform of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
  • Ensure immigration policies provide Central Washington farms with reliable labor

“We need secure borders, yes, but we also need a fair, humane pathway to legal status and citizenship for people who have lived, worked, and raised families here.”

“As a former civil servant, I’ve seen firsthand the failures of ICE, and I believe the agency requires major structural reform.”

Republican Amanda McKinney

Supports strict border enforcement and deportation

McKinney emphasizes uncompromising border enforcement and strict adherence to immigration laws. She aligns with Donald Trump's America First immigration policies to combat fentanyl trafficking, human smuggling, and border-related crime.

  • Enforce strict border security and existing federal immigration laws
  • Combat fentanyl trafficking networks and human smuggling
  • Support Donald Trump's America First border policies

“Amanda McKinney believes a nation without borders is not a nation. She supports President Trump’s commitment to border security and enforcing immigration law.”

“Failed federal policies have fueled fentanyl trafficking, human smuggling, and violent crime that reaches deep into American communities.”

04

Government Accountability and Civil Service

medium salience

Duresky focuses on congressional ethics reform and protecting civil servants from mass firings, while McKinney focuses on reining in federal bureaucrats and fighting government overreach.

Democratic John Duresky

Supports ethics reform and federal workers

Duresky advocates for ethics reforms including congressional term limits, banning congressional stock trading, and overturning Citizens United. As a veteran civil servant, he opposes mass firings of federal workers and supports protecting Hanford cleanup jobs and whistleblowers.

  • Enact congressional term limits and a post-office lobbying moratorium
  • Ban congressional stock trading and overturn Citizens United
  • Protect civil servants and Hanford workers from politically motivated mass firings
  • Strengthen whistleblower protections across federal agencies

“What happened under DOGE should never happen again.”

“Protect federal employees from politically motivated mass firings”

Republican Amanda McKinney

Opposes government overreach and bureaucrat power

McKinney pledges to curtail federal agency power and hold unelected bureaucrats accountable. She highlights her local record of challenging COVID-19 lockdown data and uncovering fraudulent aid claims as evidence of her commitment to government transparency.

  • Rein in unelected bureaucrats and curb administrative overreach
  • End the perceived weaponization of government agencies against citizens
  • Promote transparency and eliminate fraudulent federal spending

“In Congress, Amanda will work to rein in unelected bureaucrats, restore transparency, and end the weaponization of government against citizens.”

“She exposed flawed COVID data that kept Central Washington locked down and helped uncover millions of dollars in fraudulent aid claims, protecting taxpayers.”

05

Healthcare and Rural Hospitals

medium salience

Democratic John Duresky

Supports expanding ACA and universal access

Duresky focuses on protecting rural health infrastructure and lowering out-of-pocket costs. He supports funding rural hospitals, expanding Affordable Care Act subsidies, protecting Medicare and Medicaid, lowering drug costs, and moving toward universal healthcare.

  • Keep rural hospitals open and funded
  • Restore and expand Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies
  • Protect Medicare and Medicaid from budget cuts
  • Lower prescription drug costs for consumers
  • Work toward universal healthcare access

“Healthcare in Central Washington is growing more expensive and harder to access, especially in rural communities.”

“Over time, I believe our nation must move toward universal healthcare, because no family should go bankrupt due to illness, and no community should lose its only hospital.”

Republican Amanda McKinney No documented position in our sources
06

Energy and Environment

medium salience
Democratic John Duresky No documented position in our sources

Republican Amanda McKinney

Supports energy dominance and traditional sources

McKinney advocates for American energy dominance through a combination of hydropower, nuclear energy, natural gas, and domestic oil production. She opposes federal renewable mandates that increase costs and destabilize the energy grid.

  • Promote energy dominance through hydropower, nuclear power, and natural gas
  • Oppose federal renewable energy mandates that raise electricity rates
  • Ensure grid reliability and domestic energy independence

“Amanda McKinney supports American energy dominance through hydropower, nuclear energy, natural gas, and responsible domestic production.”

“She opposes radical energy mandates that raise costs, destabilize the grid, and hurt farmers, families, and small businesses.”

07

Public Safety and Law Enforcement

medium salience
Democratic John Duresky No documented position in our sources

Republican Amanda McKinney

Supports law enforcement and anti-crime laws

McKinney emphasizes strong backing for law enforcement officers, rejecting anti-police rhetoric and supporting sheriff funding, K-9 units, and emergency communication infrastructure. She prioritizes dismantling fentanyl trafficking networks and restoring law and order.

  • Provide resources for police departments, sheriff departments, and emergency systems
  • Dismantle fentanyl trafficking networks operating in local communities
  • Reject anti-police rhetoric and enforce law and order

“She rejects anti-police rhetoric and policies that embolden criminals and endanger families.”

“In Congress, she will fight to restore law and order, dismantle fentanyl trafficking networks, and ensure law enforcement has the tools they need to do their jobs safely and effectively.”

08

Second Amendment Rights

medium salience
Democratic John Duresky No documented position in our sources

Republican Amanda McKinney

Opposes new gun control restrictions

McKinney strongly defends the Second Amendment and opposes new gun control laws. Raised in a family with a licensed firearms dealer, she argues that reducing violent crime requires strict law enforcement against criminals rather than restrictions on law-abiding citizens.

  • Oppose unconstitutional gun control laws and financial restrictions on gun owners
  • Protect the constitutional right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms
  • Focus anti-crime efforts on prosecuting criminals rather than disarming citizens

“In Congress, Amanda will oppose unconstitutional gun control and stand firm in defense of the right of Americans to protect themselves, their families, and their communities.”

“She believes the answer to violent crime is enforcing the law, not disarming lawful Americans.”

09

Veterans Affairs

medium salience

Democratic John Duresky

Supports reforming VA healthcare and services

As a retired Air Force Major with three combat deployments, Duresky emphasizes improving the Department of Veterans Affairs based on direct veteran feedback. He advocates for shorter healthcare wait times, expanded mental health support, and better civilian transition assistance.

  • Improve VA healthcare delivery using direct feedback from veterans
  • Reduce medical wait times and expand mental health services
  • Enhance transitional support including jobs, housing, and education
  • Hold VA leadership accountable while protecting dedicated employees

“Improve VA healthcare based on what veterans actually experience, not what politicians imagine”

“Reduce wait times and improve mental health services”

Republican Amanda McKinney No documented position in our sources
10

Title IX and Gender Policy

low salience
Democratic John Duresky No documented position in our sources

Republican Amanda McKinney

Restricts women's sports to biological females

McKinney supports protecting Title IX by ensuring that female athletic categories remain restricted to biological females. She opposes policies that allow transgender women to compete in biological women's sports events.

  • Protect Title IX protections for biological females
  • Oppose policies allowing transgender participation in women's sports
  • Preserve fairness and equal opportunity in female athletic programs

“She supports protecting Title IX and ensuring that women’s sports remain for biological females.”

“Amanda will oppose policies that undermine women’s athletics or erase biological reality in the name of ideology.”

11

Technology and Financial Innovation

low salience
Democratic John Duresky No documented position in our sources

Republican Amanda McKinney

Supports AI leadership and cryptocurrency freedom

McKinney advocates for maintaining American dominance in artificial intelligence without heavy regulation that could benefit foreign rivals like China. Drawing on her banking career, she also supports cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies while opposing intrusive government monitoring.

  • Maintain U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence and advanced tech
  • Oppose heavy-handed tech regulations that drive innovation overseas
  • Support cryptocurrency and blockchain technology to protect financial privacy and growth

“She believes the United States must lead in artificial intelligence and advanced technologies, not surrender leadership to China or other adversaries.”

“She supports cryptocurrency and blockchain innovation as tools for economic growth, privacy, and American leadership.”

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

WA-04 House Election Winner

92.0% Republicans
8.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 92.0DEMOCRATS 8.0

Kalshi ↗

WA-04 House winner?

92.6% Amanda McKinney
4.1% John Duresky
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16MCKINNEY 92.6PARTY 90.7PARTY 9.6DURESKY 4.1

Kalshi ↗

Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?

99.2% John Duresky
99.0% Amanda McKinney
3.4% Wesley Meier

+3 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DURESKY 99.2MCKINNEY 99.0MEIER 3.4BOEHNKE 1.0NEWHOUSE 1.0SESSLER 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.