Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Washington Toss-up

Washington — 3rd District

Portrait of Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Democrat

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces Republican State Senator John Braun in Washington's 3rd Congressional District, a key battleground district that Donald Trump won in 2024. Gluesenkamp Perez is running on her bipartisan voting record, blue-collar small-business background, and advocacy for working families and reproductive freedom. Braun, a Navy veteran and manufacturing executive, emphasizes fiscal discipline, tax reduction, border security, and parental rights. Major election forecasters rate the general election between Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), Lean Democratic (Sabato's Crystal Ball), and Likely Democratic (Decision Desk HQ).

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
88.5%
Republicans
10.5%
Kalshi ↗
John Braun
99.0%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
1.0%
Brent Hennrich
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
89.0%
John Braun
10.0%
Kalshi ↗
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
99.0%
John Braun
98.0%
Brent Hennrich
2.0%
Antony Barran
1.0%
John Saulie-Rohman
1.0%
Lawrence Kellogg
1.0%
Suzzanna Tanner
1.0%
Troy Rasband
1.0%
Wadi Yakhour
1.0%
John P Roco
1.0%
Austin Braswell
1.0%

All markets →

01

Border security & immigration

high salience

Braun emphasizes physical barriers, asylum restrictions, and H.R. 2, while Gluesenkamp Perez focuses on law enforcement funding and targeted voting for specific enforcement bills.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports border enforcement and fentanyl interdiction

Gluesenkamp Perez supports expanding border security to stop illicit drugs like fentanyl from entering communities. She voted in favor of federal immigration enforcement measures, including the Laken Riley Act and the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) to require detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for theft or burglary.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 making DUI offenses grounds for deportation or inadmissibility.
  • Supports increasing border security as part of a multi-pronged approach to combat substance abuse.

“Marie will always fight to make sure state and local law enforcement agencies have the resources they need to keep Fentanyl and illegal guns off of our streets.”

Republican John Braun

Supports strict border security and barrier completion

Braun identifies border security and stopping fentanyl as primary drivers of his candidacy. He advocates completing high-priority border barriers, expanding law enforcement personnel, tightening asylum rules, and disrupting drug cartels.

  • Pledges to complete high-priority border barriers and deploy proven surveillance technology.
  • Proposes hiring and equipping more border agents while tightening asylum loopholes.
  • Supports aggressive federal interdiction to shut down cartel supply chains.

“I entered this race focused on border security and the fentanyl crisis. I'll complete high-priority barriers, hire and equip more agents, deploy proven technology, tighten asylum loopholes, and go after cartel supply chains.”

02

Economy & inflation

high salience

Braun seeks to curb inflation through spending cuts and regulatory relief, whereas Gluesenkamp Perez focuses on cracking down on corporate price gouging and strengthening supply chains.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Focuses on anti-price-gouging and working family relief

Gluesenkamp Perez emphasizes tackling inflation by combating corporate consolidation and deceptive packaging while raising workforce participation. As a small business owner, she advocates for local manufacturing and higher wages.

  • Opposes major grocery chain mergers and deceptive shrinkflation practices.
  • Advocates for expanding domestic manufacturing and supply chains to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
  • Supports increasing workforce participation through job training and affordable childcare.

“Marie has been working in Congress to combat unfair business practices — like opposing mergers of major grocery chains and opposing deceptive “Shrinkflation” food packaging.”

Republican John Braun

Supports tax cuts and spending reductions

Braun campaigns on reducing government spending, cutting regulations on small manufacturers, and opposing state and federal tax increases. He highlights his experience running a manufacturing company and leading budget negotiations in the state Senate.

  • Proposes cutting federal spending and regulations to curb inflation.
  • Opposed Washington state's 2025 revenue package expanding sales and business taxes.
  • Promotes pro-growth policies to protect the skilled-trades economy.

“In a submarine, you don't waste space. In manufacturing, you don't waste a dollar. In government, we shouldn't waste your money either.”

03

Public safety & drug policy

high salience

Gluesenkamp Perez emphasizes boosting officer compensation over equipment, while Braun focuses on enforcing public camping bans and shutting down drug markets.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports law enforcement pay and addiction recovery

Gluesenkamp Perez advocates for increasing base compensation for police officers and firefighters while expanding addiction treatment options. She opposes funding non-essential military-style equipment for local departments.

  • Supports federal grants to boost starting pay and retention for police officers and firefighters.
  • Advocates stricter penalties for drug dealers combined with expanded rehab access.
  • Prefers spending on core public safety personnel over advanced tactical equipment.

“Marie believes we need to provide more federal funding to boost officer and firefighter pay to improve retention rather than furnish departments with unnecessary line items like night-vision goggles.”

Republican John Braun

Supports law enforcement enforcement and public order

Braun supports strict law enforcement policies, dismantling open-air drug markets, and enforcing local camping bans when shelter space exists. He advocates pairing public compassion with legal consequences for criminal activity.

  • Supports shutting down open-air drug markets and backing local homeless camping bans.
  • Proposes expanding funding for detox facilities, mental health beds, and fentanyl interdiction.
  • Emphasizes backing police officers and prosecuting drug dealers.

“We can show compassion and still enforce the law. I'll pair compassion with consequences: shut down open-air drug markets, support local camping bans when shelter is available, supercharge fentanyl interdiction, and fund detox and mental-health beds.”

04

Education & parental rights

medium salience

Braun champions a federal Parents Bill of Rights, whereas Gluesenkamp Perez prioritizes expanding technical trade education and Pell Grant flexibility.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports career and technical training expansion

Gluesenkamp Perez advocates expanding vocational, career, and technical education without requiring expensive college degrees. She supports expanding Pell Grant eligibility to include skilled-trades training.

  • Supports allowing federal Pell Grants to cover job training and apprenticeship programs.
  • Advocates expanding technical education in high schools and community colleges.
  • Voted Nay on the Protection of Parents' Rights legislation in the House.

“In Congress, she is working to increase access to apprenticeships and technical training and reduce the number of jobs that require applicants to have expensive college degrees.”

Republican John Braun

Supports federal Parents Bill of Rights and tuition cuts

Braun advocates for parental rights in public school curricula and highlights his legislative record of cutting higher education tuition. He supports federal parental transparency laws and expanding trade training.

  • Endorses the federal Parents Bill of Rights Act to give parents curriculum oversight.
  • Authored Washington state's College Affordability Program to lower university tuition.
  • Proposes expanding career access through skilled-trades training.

“Parents—not bureaucrats—have the right to know what's happening in their kids' classrooms. I support the Parents Bill of Rights at the federal level.”

05

Energy & environment

medium salience

Braun advocates for broad fossil and renewable energy expansion, while Gluesenkamp Perez highlights climate change, efficiency rebates, and Right to Repair legislation.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports energy efficiency rebates and Right to Repair

Gluesenkamp Perez acknowledges climate change as man-made and advocates for pragmatic environmental policies, such as energy efficiency rebates, Right to Repair laws, microplastics research, and sustainable forestry.

  • Supports tax rebates for home energy upgrades, including insulation for mobile homes.
  • Champions federal Right to Repair legislation to allow owners to fix consumer and farm equipment.
  • Sponsors research into microplastics and promotes sustainable paper and cardboard packaging.

“Marie believes that climate change is real and is man-made. She also believes that increasingly severe weather events caused by climate change disproportionately affect the working class.”

Republican John Braun

Supports an all-of-the-above energy strategy

Braun supports expanding domestic energy production across all sources, including hydropower, nuclear, natural gas, oil, and solar, to lower costs and meet growing grid demands.

  • Promotes market-based energy development including hydropower, solar, oil, gas, and nuclear.
  • Emphasizes energy grid capacity needed for AI data centers and population growth.
  • Opposes foreign energy reliance.

“Affordable energy = affordable life. I'll champion market-based production including hydropower, solar, oil, natural gas and nuclear power.”

06

Protection of women's sports

medium salience

Braun supports federal legislation restricting women's sports categories by biological sex, whereas Gluesenkamp Perez voted against that bill in Congress.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Opposes federal biological sex restrictions in sports

Gluesenkamp Perez voted against federal legislation that mandates school athletic participation be determined strictly by biological sex at birth.

  • Voted Nay on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).

Republican John Braun

Supports restricting women's sports to biological females

Braun supports federal legislation requiring school athletic teams designated for women or girls to be restricted to biological females, citing Title IX's original intent.

  • Supports the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act.
  • Pledges to vote to maintain sports categories based on biological sex.

“Girls deserve a level playing field. I support federal protections like the House-passed Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act (2023) and similar 2025 legislation.”

07

Second Amendment & gun rights

medium salience

Braun opposes semi-automatic firearm bans as restrictions on legal owners, while Gluesenkamp Perez focuses on funding police efforts to take illegal guns off the streets.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports removing illegal firearms from streets

Gluesenkamp Perez supports providing resources to law enforcement agencies to remove illegal firearms and illicit drugs from communities while respecting legal ownership.

  • Supports federal funding to aid local police in seizing illegal firearms.
  • Emphasizes practical community safety measures over restrictive broad bans.

“Marie will always fight to make sure state and local law enforcement agencies have the resources they need to keep Fentanyl and illegal guns off of our streets.”

Republican John Braun

Opposes new gun bans and defends gun ownership

Braun is a strong defender of Second Amendment rights and hunting traditions, pointing to his opposition to state-level semi-automatic rifle bans.

  • Opposed Washington state's 2023 semi-automatic rifle ban in the state legislature.
  • Pledges to defend the constitutional rights of legal gun owners and sportsmen in Congress.

“In my legislative races I opposed Olympia's 2023 rifle ban because it punishes the law-abiding and doesn't target criminals. In Congress I'll protect the constitutional rights of responsible gun owners and sportsmen.”

08

Reproductive freedom

high salience

Gluesenkamp Perez explicitly campaigns on blocking a national abortion ban, while Braun's federal campaign platform does not feature a position on reproductive rights.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports federal abortion access protections

Gluesenkamp Perez strongly supports protecting reproductive rights and opposes any federal limits on abortion access. She cites personal medical experience in advocating for protected access to healthcare clinics.

  • Pledges to block any federal abortion ban that would override Washington state law.
  • Supports federal funding and access protections for reproductive healthcare facilities like Planned Parenthood.

“Marie is fighting to ensure every woman can see a doctor whenever she wants, for whatever reason. Because that is her right, and once freedom is limited, it’s lost.”

Republican John Braun No documented position in our sources
09

Salmon recovery & wildlife management

low salience

Braun highlights sea-lion removal and Columbia River hatchery funding as key to salmon recovery, whereas Gluesenkamp Perez has no equivalent detailed platform item.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez No documented position in our sources

Republican John Braun

Supports sea-lion management to protect salmon

Braun advocates for state and tribal removal of problem sea lions on the Columbia River to aid salmon recovery, alongside federal investments in hatcheries and fish habitat.

  • Supports humane sea lion removal permits under federal law along the Columbia River.
  • Pledges to secure federal funding for salmon hatcheries, culverts, and habitat restoration.

“We can boost fish runs by continuing sea lion control activity. Federal law now lets states and tribes humanely remove problem sea lions on the Columbia; NOAA extended those permits.”

10

Social Security & Medicare

low salience

Gluesenkamp Perez explicitly opposes raising the retirement age or reducing entitlement benefits, whereas Braun's campaign platform does not highlight an entitlement plan.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports protecting entitlement benefits without benefit cuts

Gluesenkamp Perez promises to protect Social Security and Medicare entitlement benefits for seniors, opposing increases to the retirement age or benefit reductions.

  • Opposes raising the Social Security retirement age or cutting monthly benefits.
  • Supports solvency legislation to ensure long-term trust fund stability.

“Marie supports common sense legislation to strengthen the Social Security program for the long-run without raising the retirement age or reducing benefits.”

Republican John Braun No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

WA-03 House Election Winner

88.5% Democrats
10.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 88.5REPUBLICANS 10.5

Kalshi ↗

WA-03 primary: 1st place

99.0% John Braun
1.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
1.0% Brent Hennrich
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16BRAUN 99.0PEREZ 1.0HENNRICH 1.0

Kalshi ↗

WA-03 House winner?

89.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
10.0% John Braun
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PEREZ 89.0PARTY 86.0PARTY 17.0BRAUN 10.0

Kalshi ↗

WA-03 primary: who will advance?

99.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
98.0% John Braun
2.0% Brent Hennrich

+8 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PEREZ 99.0BRAUN 98.0HENNRICH 2.0BRASWELL 1.0BARRAN 1.0ROCO 1.0RASBAND 1.0SAULIE-ROHMAN 1.0TANNER 1.0KELLOGG 1.0YAKHOUR 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.