Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Washington Toss-up

Washington’s 3rd District race

Portrait of Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Democrat

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

The 2026 election for Washington's 3rd Congressional District features freshman Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez against Republican Washington State Senate Minority Leader John Braun. The race in this swing district—which Donald Trump won in 2024—hinges on cost-of-living concerns, border security, law enforcement funding, and reproductive rights. Gluesenkamp Perez emphasizes her working-class roots as an auto repair shop owner and bipartisan voting record, while Braun emphasizes his Navy career, manufacturing background, and state legislative leadership.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
90.0%
Republicans
9.0%
Kalshi ↗
John Braun
99.0%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
1.0%
Brent Hennrich
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
90.0%
John Braun
10.0%
Kalshi ↗
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
99.0%
John Braun
98.0%
Brent Hennrich
2.0%
Austin Braswell
1.0%
John P Roco
1.0%
Wadi Yakhour
1.0%
Troy Rasband
1.0%
Suzzanna Tanner
1.0%
Lawrence Kellogg
1.0%
John Saulie-Rohman
1.0%
Antony Barran
1.0%

All markets →

01

Border Security & Immigration

high salience

Braun advocates for physical wall completion and strict asylum limits under H.R. 2, while Gluesenkamp Perez supports targeted enforcement votes like the Laken Riley Act combined with treatment and interdiction funding.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports border interdiction and enforcement legislation

Gluesenkamp Perez supports increasing federal resources to secure the border and stop illegal fentanyl trafficking. In Congress, she has voted for bipartisan immigration enforcement legislation, including the Laken Riley Act and measures to deport noncitizens convicted of driving while impaired.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act requiring DHS detention of unauthorized immigrants arrested for burglary or theft
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 making DUI grounds for deportation or inadmissibility
  • Supports stricter punishments for drug sale and possession alongside expanded treatment access

“Marie believes in fighting the drug crisis through increased border security, stricter punishments for sale and possession, expanded access to treatment and rehab, and better job opportunities.”

Republican John Braun

Supports border barriers and asylum restriction

Braun entered the congressional race with a primary focus on securing the border and stopping the fentanyl crisis. He advocates for completing physical barriers, deploying advanced technology, tightening asylum loopholes, and targeting cartel supply chains.

  • Calls for completing high-priority physical border barriers and deploying detection technology
  • Supports hiring and equipping additional border agents and tightening asylum loopholes
  • Pledges to target cartel supply chains to stop fentanyl distribution

“I entered this race focused on border security and the fentanyl crisis. I'll complete high-priority barriers, hire and equip more agents, deploy proven technology, tighten asylum loopholes, and go after cartel supply chains.”

02

Cost of Living & Economy

high salience

Gluesenkamp Perez blames corporate mergers and shrinkflation for rising prices, whereas Braun focuses on reining in government spending and cutting regulatory burdens on businesses.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports wage increases and anti-price-gouging

Gluesenkamp Perez focuses on combating inflation by targeting unfair corporate practices, such as opposing major grocery chain mergers and deceptive shrinkflation packaging. She advocates for raising wages, expanding childcare options, and supporting domestic energy to lower household expenses.

  • Opposes major grocery chain mergers and deceptive shrinkflation packaging
  • Supports living wages and expanding workforce participation to stabilize consumer prices
  • Championed energy efficiency tax rebates for working-class families, including mobile home weather skirting

“Marie has been working in Congress to combat unfair business practices — like opposing mergers of major grocery chains and opposing deceptive “Shrinkflation” food packaging.”

Republican John Braun

Supports federal spending cuts and deregulation

Braun advocates for a pro-growth agenda focused on cutting wasteful federal spending to curb inflation. Drawing on his experience as a state legislative leader and manufacturing executive, he pledges to reduce red tape on small businesses and led opposition in Olympia against state sales and business tax increases.

  • Pledges to cut wasteful government spending to reduce inflationary pressures
  • Advocates reducing regulatory burdens on small manufacturers and skilled trades
  • Opposed state-level tax increases in Washington, including sales tax expansions to services and B&O tax hikes

“Families are getting crushed by inflation. I'll push for a pro-growth, pro-work agenda: cut wasteful spending that feeds inflation, reduce red tape on small manufacturers, and protect the skilled-trades economy that powers Southwest Washington.”

03

Crime & Public Safety

high salience

Gluesenkamp Perez emphasizes boosting police officer salaries over military equipment, whereas Braun highlights enforcing local camping bans and closing open-air drug markets.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports officer pay and local law enforcement

Gluesenkamp Perez emphasizes boosting federal funding for police officer and firefighter pay to improve retention rather than supplying departments with specialized military-style equipment. She supports stricter penalties for selling illegal drugs alongside funding for addiction treatment and recovery.

  • Prioritizes federal funding for officer and firefighter compensation and retention
  • Opposes funding unnecessary department line items like night-vision goggles
  • Supports stricter punishments for drug possession and sale paired with treatment programs

“Marie believes we need to provide more federal funding to boost officer and firefighter pay to improve retention rather than furnish departments with unnecessary line items like night-vision goggles.”

Republican John Braun

Supports law enforcement and camping bans

Braun advocates pairing law enforcement consequences with compassion to maintain public order. His platform includes shutting down open-air drug markets, enforcing local camping bans when shelter is available, supercharging fentanyl interdiction, and funding detox and mental health beds.

  • Supports shutting down open-air drug markets and enforcing local camping bans
  • Calls for supercharging fentanyl interdiction and funding detox/mental health beds
  • Focuses on supporting police and prosecuting fentanyl dealers to restore community order

“I'll pair compassion with consequences: shut down open-air drug markets, support local camping bans when shelter is available, supercharge fentanyl interdiction, and fund detox and mental-health beds.”

04

Education & Parental Rights

medium salience

Braun strongly supports the federal Parents Bill of Rights, whereas Gluesenkamp Perez voted against it while prioritizing expansion of technical apprenticeships.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports career technical education and apprenticeships

Gluesenkamp Perez advocates expanding career and technical education, technical training, and apprenticeships so young adults can obtain high-paying jobs without four-year college degrees. In Congress, she voted against the House Republicans' parents' rights bill.

  • Supports allowing Pell Grants to apply to job training and technical credentials
  • Works to reduce four-year degree requirements for good-paying jobs
  • Voted Nay on federal parents' rights legislation

“In Congress, she is working to increase access to apprenticeships and technical training and reduce the number of jobs that require applicants to have expensive college degrees.”

Republican John Braun

Supports federal Parents Bill of Rights

Braun supports federal legislation to guarantee parents' rights to oversee classroom instruction and curriculum decisions. In the state legislature, he authored the College Affordability Program to cut public university tuition and advocates expanding skilled-trades training.

  • Supports the federal Parents Bill of Rights to give parents oversight of classroom material
  • Authored Washington's College Affordability Program to reduce public university tuition
  • Promotes skilled-trades training as a career pathway for young adults

“Parents—not bureaucrats—have the right to know what's happening in their kids' classrooms. I support the Parents Bill of Rights at the federal level.”

05

Small Business & Manufacturing

medium salience

Gluesenkamp Perez focuses on enacting federal Right to Repair legislation and streamlining loan access, while Braun emphasizes general deregulation and tax relief for manufacturers.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports Right to Repair and trade reform

As an auto repair shop co-owner, Gluesenkamp Perez advocates for federal Right to Repair legislation to prevent equipment manufacturers from price-gouging farmers and independent repairers. She also works to streamline SBA loan processes and boost domestic manufacturing against Chinese competition.

  • Champions federal Right to Repair legislation for farm and consumer equipment
  • Pushes to streamline complex SBA loan application processes for small businesses
  • Supports domestic manufacturing investments to compete against Chinese trade practices

“She is working to stop manufacturers of farm and consumer equipment from gouging their customers by forcing them to pay the original manufacturer for repairs.”

Republican John Braun

Supports deregulation and manufacturing growth

Braun emphasizes his background as president of a 350-employee manufacturing firm in Chehalis. He advocates cutting government red tape, reducing regulatory compliance costs, and supporting the skilled-trades economy across Southwest Washington.

  • Leverages background running an emergency vehicle manufacturing business
  • Advocates cutting red tape and compliance costs for small manufacturers
  • Pledges to protect family-wage manufacturing and agricultural export jobs

“I'll push for a pro-growth, pro-work agenda: cut wasteful spending that feeds inflation, reduce red tape on small manufacturers, and protect the skilled-trades economy that powers Southwest Washington.”

06

Energy & Environment

medium salience

Braun explicitly champions fossil fuel development alongside renewables to lower prices, whereas Gluesenkamp Perez prioritizes efficiency tax rebates and renewable transition measures.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports clean energy rebates and renewables

Gluesenkamp Perez acknowledges climate change as a man-made challenge that disproportionately impacts working-class communities. She supports energy independence using traditional and renewable sources, tax rebates for home efficiency upgrades, and federal research into microplastics.

  • Championed tax rebates for home energy efficiency upgrades like mobile home skirting
  • Supports expanding renewable packaging and researching microplastic health risks
  • Advocates abundant energy production from traditional and renewable sources

“Marie believes that climate change is real and is man-made. She also believes that increasingly severe weather events caused by climate change disproportionately affect the working class.”

Republican John Braun

Supports all-of-the-above energy independence

Braun champions market-based energy production across all domestic sources, including hydropower, solar, oil, natural gas, and nuclear power. He argues expanding energy supply is essential to lower living costs and power growing population needs and AI data centers.

  • Supports an all-of-the-above energy strategy including hydropower, nuclear, oil, gas, and solar
  • Emphasizes expanding power generation to meet demand from AI data centers and population growth
  • Advocates energy independence to avoid reliance on foreign energy suppliers

“Affordable energy = affordable life. I'll champion market-based production including hydropower, solar, oil, natural gas and nuclear power.”

07

Gun Rights & Second Amendment

medium salience

Braun explicitly opposed Washington's state rifle ban, while Gluesenkamp Perez focuses her gun stance on illegal firearm interdiction by police.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports targeted illegal gun enforcement

Gluesenkamp Perez supports giving local law enforcement agencies the resources necessary to remove illegal firearms from streets while representing a rural district with strong hunting and gun ownership traditions.

  • Supports providing law enforcement resources to keep illegal guns off streets
  • Balancing local gun ownership traditions with community safety measures

“Marie will always fight to make sure state and local law enforcement agencies have the resources they need to keep Fentanyl and illegal guns off of our streets.”

Republican John Braun

Opposes gun bans and defends Second Amendment

Braun pledges to defend the Second Amendment and Washington's hunting traditions. During his time in the state legislature, he opposed Washington's 2023 semi-automatic rifle ban, arguing that it penalizes law-abiding gun owners rather than criminals.

  • Opposed Washington State's 2023 semi-automatic rifle ban in the state Senate
  • Pledges to defend Second Amendment rights for responsible gun owners and sportsmen

“In my legislative races I opposed Olympia's 2023 rifle ban because it punishes the law-abiding and doesn't target criminals.”

08

Protection of Women's Sports

medium salience

Braun supports federal legislation restricting female sports teams to biological females, while Gluesenkamp Perez voted against those federal measures.

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Opposes federal restrictions on female athletics

Gluesenkamp Perez voted against the House-passed Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Acts in 2023 and 2025, opposing federal mandates that restrict school athletic participation based on biological sex.

  • Voted Nay on H.R. 28, the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025
  • Voted against the 2023 House version of the legislation

Republican John Braun

Supports restricting female sports to biological sex

Braun supports federal legislation restricting participation in female school sports to biological females, arguing that Title IX's original intent was to safeguard a level playing field for girls.

  • Supports federal Protection of Women and Girls in Sports legislation
  • Advocates restricting women's sports categories to biological females under Title IX

“I'll vote to keep women's sports based on biological sex, consistent with Title IX's original purpose.”

09

Abortion & Reproductive Freedom

high salience

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports codifying federal abortion rights

Gluesenkamp Perez strongly supports protecting reproductive freedom and preventing a federal abortion ban that would override Washington state law. She frequently references her personal experience navigating emergency medical care after a miscarriage to emphasize the necessity of access to reproductive healthcare.

  • Vows to oppose any national abortion ban in Congress
  • Supports protecting access to critical medical care and funding for Planned Parenthood
  • Shares personal story of requiring dilation and evacuation procedure following a 16-week miscarriage

“Marie is fighting to ensure every woman can see a doctor whenever she wants, for whatever reason. Because that is her right, and once freedom is limited, it’s lost.”

Republican John Braun No documented position in our sources
10

Infrastructure & Bridge Funding

low salience

Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Supports federal funding for I-5 bridge

Gluesenkamp Perez secured $600 million in federal funding to replace the 100-year-old Interstate 5 bridge connecting Washington and Oregon. She focuses on securing federal grants to prevent the imposition of local bridge tolls.

  • Secured $600 million in federal funding for the Interstate 5 bridge replacement
  • Advocates returning federal tax dollars to local infrastructure to avoid tolling drivers

“She worked to secure $600 million in funding needed to replace the 100-year-old I-5 bridge. This financial support is a down payment and essential to repair the bridge and avoid the need for tolls.”

Republican John Braun No documented position in our sources
11

Salmon Recovery & Columbia River

low salience
Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez No documented position in our sources

Republican John Braun

Supports sea lion removal on Columbia River

Braun advocates for active sea lion population control on the Columbia River to reduce predation on endangered salmon runs. He promises to secure federal funding for hatcheries, habitat restoration, and sea lion removal permits.

  • Supports lethal removal of sea lions on the Columbia River under federal NOAA permits
  • Pledges federal funding for fish hatcheries, culvert replacement, and habitat restoration

“We can boost fish runs by continuing sea lion control activity. Federal law now lets states and tribes humanely remove problem sea lions on the Columbia; NOAA extended those permits.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

WA-03 House Election Winner

90.0% Democrats
9.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 90.0REPUBLICANS 9.0

Kalshi ↗

WA-03 primary: 1st place

99.0% John Braun
1.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
1.0% Brent Hennrich
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31BRAUN 99.0HENNRICH 1.0PEREZ 1.0

Kalshi ↗

WA-03 House winner?

90.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
10.0% John Braun
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31PEREZ 90.0PARTY 86.0PARTY 17.0BRAUN 10.0

Kalshi ↗

WA-03 primary: who will advance?

99.0% Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
98.0% John Braun
2.0% Brent Hennrich

+8 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 19SEP 6SEP 24OCT 11PEREZ 99.0BRAUN 98.0HENNRICH 2.0BARRAN 1.0BRASWELL 1.0ROCO 1.0RASBAND 1.0KELLOGG 1.0TANNER 1.0SAULIE-ROHMAN 1.0YAKHOUR 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.