Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Virginia Likely R

Virginia — 5th District

In Virginia's 5th Congressional District, Republican incumbent John McGuire faces Democratic nominee Tom Perriello, a former U.S. Representative and diplomat, alongside two independent candidates in the November 2026 general election. The race hinges on economic issues—specifically tariffs, cost of living, and spending—as well as contrasting visions on healthcare, anti-corruption, and border security. McGuire won his August 4, 2026 primary with Donald Trump's endorsement, while Perriello captured the Democratic nomination with nearly 80% of the vote. Major race rating bodies classify the seat as Solid Republican (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections) or Likely Republican (DDHQ/The Hill, Sabato's Crystal Ball).

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
84.0%
Democrats
17.0%
Kalshi ↗
John McGuire
85.0%
Tom Perriello
16.0%
Kalshi ↗
John McGuire
99.0%
Bob Good
1.0%
Melanie Lucero
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Tom Perriello
99.0%
Salaam Bhatti
4.0%
Robert Tracinski
1.0%
Suzanne Krzyzanowski
1.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Perriello seeks to reduce household costs by rolling back tariffs and strengthening social safety net investments, whereas McGuire focuses on cutting business taxes, deregulation, and conservative budget reconciliation.

Democratic Tom Perriello

Lower costs and end tariffs

Perriello focuses his campaign on relieving financial pressure on families by reversing tariffs that increased grocery bills and ending conflicts driving up fuel and fertilizer prices. He highlights his prior congressional record of opposing Wall Street bailouts, investing in local schools, and supporting middle-out economic growth.

  • Pledges to lower grocery and energy costs by ending tariffs and stopping the Iran war.
  • Promises to protect family budgets by securing affordable healthcare, childcare, housing, and retirement.
  • Voted against Wall Street bailouts during the 2008 economic crisis while funding local infrastructure, public schools, and law enforcement.
  • Supports raising the minimum wage and advancing middle-out economic policies.

“Tom's most urgent priority will be to save families money by ending the tariffs that spiked grocery bills, ending the Iran war that’s made gas and fertilizer prices insane, and ending the shady deals bankrupting our country.”

“Tom voted AGAINST bailing out Wall Street and FOR investments in every public school and law enforcement unit in the district.”

Republican John McGuire

Supports pro-business tax cuts

McGuire advocates for conservative economic principles, seeking to spur job growth by slashing taxes and eliminating federal regulations. In the 119th Congress, he voted for major reconciliation legislation to reform tax policies and adjust statutory debt limits.

  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge with Americans for Tax Reform.
  • Voted Yea on H.R.1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) to address tax policy, federal spending programs, and the statutory debt limit.
  • Voted Yea on H.Con.Res.14 setting federal budget parameters through fiscal year 2034.
  • Advocates cutting taxes and removing regulatory burdens to foster small business growth.

“John wants to help businesses grow, create jobs, and invest in our communities by cutting taxes and removing regulatory hurdles.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Perriello champions government-backed coverage expansions like the Affordable Care Act, while McGuire advocates cutting regulations to rely on free-market competition to lower healthcare costs.

Democratic Tom Perriello

Protect and expand affordable healthcare

Perriello emphasizes protecting and strengthening government healthcare programs to ensure coverage for all families. He highlights his key vote passing the Affordable Care Act to expand local coverage and protect rural clinics.

  • Cast a decisive vote to pass the Affordable Care Act during his previous House term.
  • Pledges to protect rural health clinics and ensure affordable care for all families.

“Tom faced down the insurance lobbyists to cast a decisive vote that delivered affordable healthcare for tens of thousands of local families and kept our rural clinics open.”

Republican John McGuire

Reduce healthcare costs via deregulation

McGuire advocates for reforming healthcare regulations to encourage market competition and lower consumer expenses. He focuses on removing rules that restrict healthcare providers, particularly in rural communities.

  • Proposes overhauling federal regulatory frameworks to spur market competition.
  • Focuses on expanding healthcare provider access and reducing rural care costs in districts like Louisa and Goochland.

“John wants to cut burdensome regulations presently stifling competition, inflating health care costs, and reducing access to health care providers - particularly in rural areas like Louisa and Goochland.”

03

Government integrity and ethics

high salience

Perriello calls for comprehensive structural ethics laws including bans on corporate PAC donations and member stock trading, while McGuire's documented ethics record centers on voting to publish unclassified DOJ records on Jeffrey Epstein.

Democratic Tom Perriello

Ban dark money and insider trading

Perriello places anti-corruption reforms at the center of his campaign, advocating for prohibitions on corporate PAC money, dark money, and congressional stock trading. He also demands complete transparency regarding the Jeffrey Epstein investigative files.

  • Refuses all campaign contributions from corporate PACs and lobbyists.
  • Endorsed by anti-corruption group End Citizens United.
  • Proposes federal legislation banning dark money and insider trading by members of Congress.
  • Demands full prosecution of all individuals implicated in the Jeffrey Epstein files and cover-up.

“He will fight to ban dark money and insider trading from our politics, and he will not rest until all criminals associated with the Epstein files and its cover-up are arrested.”

Republican John McGuire

Supports releasing unclassified Epstein files

McGuire supports federal transparency regarding high-profile investigative records, voting in the 119th Congress to mandate public release of unclassified Justice Department files related to Jeffrey Epstein.

  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R.4405) requiring the Department of Justice to publish unclassified investigative materials.
04

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Perriello is endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund and supports protecting abortion access, while McGuire explicitly campaigns on a pro-life platform.

Democratic Tom Perriello

Supports abortion access and reproductive freedom

Perriello supports protecting access to reproductive healthcare and abortion services nationwide, earning the endorsement of major national advocacy organizations.

  • Endorsed by the Planned Parenthood Action Fund for the 2026 election cycle.

Republican John McGuire

Pro-life anti-abortion advocate

McGuire campaigns on a pro-life platform, making anti-abortion advocacy a pillar of his conservative commitments.

  • Prominently features a "Pro-Life" stance on his official campaign platform.

“Pro-Life.”

05

Gun policy and Second Amendment

medium salience

Perriello supports sensible gun safety legislation, while McGuire campaigns on an explicit "Pro-Gun" platform backed by gun rights groups.

Democratic Tom Perriello

Supports sensible gun safety legislation

Perriello advocates for common-sense gun safety policies, reflecting his leadership work with progressive policy organizations.

  • Supported sensible gun safety solutions as CEO of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Republican John McGuire

Strong pro-Second Amendment advocate

McGuire campaigns as a staunch defender of Second Amendment rights, consistently earning high evaluations from gun rights advocacy organizations.

  • Includes "Pro-Gun" as a core pillar of his campaign platform.
  • Evaluated by the Virginia Citizens Defense League on state legislative Second Amendment votes.

“Pro-Gun.”

06

Public safety and law enforcement

medium salience

Perriello highlights his vote to fund local police units through federal budget allocations, whereas McGuire focuses on expanding law enforcement resources to combat gangs, child exploitation, and drug abuse.

Democratic Tom Perriello

Supports funding law enforcement and public safety

Perriello points to his legislative record of voting to fund local police units and public safety services alongside public education investments.

  • Voted for direct federal funding investments for every law enforcement unit in the district during his prior term in Congress.

“Tom voted AGAINST bailing out Wall Street and FOR investments in every public school and law enforcement unit in the district.”

Republican John McGuire

Backs law enforcement equipment and anti-gang initiatives

McGuire focuses on providing law enforcement and first responders with updated equipment and training, while targeting online child exploitation, street gangs, and substance abuse.

  • Advocates equipping police, firefighters, and EMTs with necessary training, equipment, and staffing.
  • Pledges to fight online child exploitation and gang growth.
  • Supports substance abuse prevention and recovery programs.

“Police, firefighters, and EMTs work tirelessly, and often thanklessly, to ensure our safety. We need to equip our public stewards with the tools and resources they need to keep us safe.”

07

Veterans affairs and military

medium salience

Perriello emphasizes his congressional committee work improving VA services and the GI Bill, while McGuire emphasizes his Navy SEAL background and proposal to eliminate retirement benefit taxes for veterans.

Democratic Tom Perriello

Supports VA reform and Post-9/11 GI Bill

Perriello highlights his service on the House Veterans Affairs Committee, where he focused on reforming VA operations and facilitating the Post-9/11 GI Bill.

  • Earned an A+ rating from the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Action Fund.
  • Worked on the House Veterans Affairs Committee to reform the VA and implement the Post-9/11 GI Bill.

Republican John McGuire

Advocates veteran tax relief and support

Drawing on his decade of service as a U.S. Navy SEAL, McGuire prioritizes veteran support, focusing on eliminating state income taxes on military retirement benefits.

  • Served ten years as a U.S. Navy SEAL.
  • Endorsed by American Veterans Vote.
  • Proposes eliminating state taxes on military retirement benefits to keep skilled veterans in Virginia.

“As a former Navy SEAL, no one will fight harder for our veterans than John.”

08

Education

low salience

Perriello focuses on federal funding for public schools and college tuition tax credits, whereas McGuire focuses on restricting female school sports participation based on biological sex.

Democratic Tom Perriello

Supports public school funding and tuition tax credits

Perriello advocates for federal investments in K-12 public schools and tax relief to make higher education and community college affordable.

  • Voted for federal investment packages supporting every public school in the district.
  • Passed a $2,500 tuition tax credit to lower college and community college expenses.

Republican John McGuire

Supports biological sex restrictions in school sports

McGuire served on state education committees and supported federal legislation restricting school athletic participation based on biological sex.

  • Voted Yea on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28) to restrict school athletic participation based on biological sex.
  • Served on the Virginia House of Delegates Education Committee.
09

Foreign policy and national security

low salience

Perriello advocates for diplomatic engagement and international conflict resolution, whereas McGuire supports an "America First" foreign policy aligned with Donald Trump.

Democratic Tom Perriello

Diplomacy-focused international conflict resolution

Perriello draws on extensive diplomatic experience, including serving as Special Envoy for Sudan and Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region of Africa. He also calls for ending the conflict in Iran to lower domestic gas prices.

  • Appointed Biden administration Special Envoy for Sudan (2024) and Obama administration Special Envoy for Africa's Great Lakes Region (2015).
  • Directed the 2014 Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR) at the State Department.
  • Calls for ending the war in Iran to reduce fertilizer and fuel costs.

Republican John McGuire

"America First" national security approach

McGuire serves on the House Armed Services Committee and aligns with President Donald Trump's "America First" national security framework.

  • Member of the House Committee on Armed Services and subcommittees on cyber information and tactical air/land forces.
  • Endorsed by Donald Trump and campaigns under an "America First. Always." policy stance.

“America First. Always.”

11

Immigration and border security

medium salience

McGuire has established a voting record favoring mandatory federal detention, deportation for specific criminal charges, and voter citizenship checks, whereas Perriello's 2026 platform has not detailed an explicit immigration position.

Democratic Tom Perriello No documented position in our sources

Republican John McGuire

Supports strict immigration enforcement measures

McGuire strongly supports strict enforcement of federal immigration laws, including mandatory detention and deportation for undocumented individuals convicted of certain offenses. He also supports strict citizenship verification for federal voter registration.

  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.
  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring DHS to detain unauthorized immigrants arrested for burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 making driving while impaired grounds for deportation or barring admission of unauthorized immigrants.

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

VA-05 House Election Winner

84.0% Republicans
17.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 84.0DEMOCRATS 17.0

Kalshi ↗

VA-05 House winner?

85.0% John McGuire
16.0% Tom Perriello
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MCGUIRE 85.0PARTY 81.0PARTY 19.0PERRIELLO 16.0

Kalshi ↗

VA-05 Republican nominee?

99.0% John McGuire
1.0% Bob Good
1.0% Melanie Lucero
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MCGUIRE 99.0LUCERO 1.0GOOD 1.0

Kalshi ↗

VA-05 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Tom Perriello
4.0% Salaam Bhatti
1.0% Robert Tracinski

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 3AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16PERRIELLO 99.0BHATTI 4.0KRZYZANOWSKI 1.0TRACINSKI 1.0

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