Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Virginia Toss-up

Virginia — 2nd District

Portrait of Jennifer Kiggans

Republican

Jennifer Kiggans

The 2026 general election for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District features a high-stakes rematch between Republican incumbent Jennifer Kiggans and Democratic former representative Elaine Luria. Control of the U.S. House of Representatives could hinge on this military-heavy Hampton Roads district, which includes Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore and was the nation's second-closest district at the presidential level in 2024. Major ratings outlets, including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, rate the race as a Toss-up, while Decision Desk rates it Likely Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
81.5%
Republicans
17.5%
Kalshi ↗
Elaine Luria
82.0%
Jennifer Kiggans
18.0%
Kalshi ↗
Elaine Luria
99.9%
Burk Stringfellow
3.4%
Patrick Mosolf
3.0%
Nicolaus Sleister
3.0%
James Osyf
1.0%
Matt Strickler
1.0%
Nila Devanath
0.1%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Kiggans advocates for spending cuts and making corporate and personal tax cuts permanent, whereas Luria emphasizes lowering daily living costs by reining in corporate price gouging and capping healthcare expenses.

Democratic Elaine Luria

Supports lowering costs and campaign ethics reform

Luria argues that inflation and rising prices for gas, groceries, housing, and healthcare are squeezing Hampton Roads families. She advocates for passing targeted cost-relief legislation and curbing corporate and special-interest influences that drive up consumer expenses.

  • Voted for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
  • Voted for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 to address climate change and reduce health costs
  • Proposes ending special-interest dark money and tax policies that burden working families

“Throughout Hampton Roads, I hear the same story from Virginians and their families: “we’re working harder than ever, but we can barely keep up.” From gas and grocery prices to prescription drug costs, housing, and childcare, the rising cost of living continue to squeeze Virginians.”

Republican Jennifer Kiggans

Supports cutting spending and tax relief

Kiggans prioritizes curbing inflation by cutting federal spending, reducing regulatory burdens on businesses, and delivering tax relief to workers. She champions making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime.

  • Voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1) reconciliation package in 2025 and the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023
  • Supports the Working Families Tax Cuts to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime and expand the Child Tax Credit
  • Requires Navy evaluations of local workforce pipelines when selecting shipbuilding and repair sites in Hampton Roads

“My priority will always be lowering costs, putting more money back in your pocket, standing up for our families, and working across the aisle to deliver real results.”

“fought to pass legislation to protect working families and small businesses from government overreach, reduce executive branch overspending, and bring much-needed oversight to federal agencies.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Luria favors direct federal price controls on prescription drugs and expanding public healthcare subsidies, while Kiggans relies on her background as a nurse practitioner to promote market-based primary care access and ACA tax credit extensions while opposing single-payer systems.

Democratic Elaine Luria

Supports expanding healthcare access and capping drug costs

Luria considers healthcare access and prescription drug affordability central to her campaign. She supports empowering Medicare to negotiate drug prices, strengthening the Affordable Care Act, and expanding Tricare coverage for military dependents.

  • Voted for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 to extend ACA subsidies and permit Medicare drug price negotiations
  • Voted for the Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act
  • Introduced legislation to extend Tricare coverage for military dependents to age 26 without added costs

“People's healthcare is getting cut, and people's healthcare is getting more expensive. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. There's so much that needs to be done for the American people, for the Hampton Roads community.”

“The Affordable Care Act allows young adults to stay on their parents’ health plans until age 26. However, military families do not receive this same benefit under Tricare,”

Republican Jennifer Kiggans

Supports ACA tax credit renewal and primary care expansion

Drawing on her background as a primary care nurse practitioner, Kiggans advocates for healthcare affordability, mental health resources, and expanding virtual care access. She led bipartisan efforts to extend ACA premium tax credits while opposing government-run healthcare.

  • Co-led the bipartisan CommonGround 2025 framework to extend ACA premium tax credits
  • Serves as Vice Chair of the Congressional Nursing Caucus addressing healthcare staffing shortages
  • Introduced bills to expand youth substance abuse funding and Medicare mental health services while opposing Medicare for All

“Patients who are engaged in their primary healthcare live well, suffer fewer chronic conditions, and save on overall healthcare costs.”

03

Government ethics and campaign finance

high salience

Luria puts forward detailed policy proposals to ban congressional stock trading and prediction market betting, while Kiggans focuses her ethics messaging on attacking Luria's personal stock trading history in Congress.

Democratic Elaine Luria

Supports banning congressional stock trading and dark money

Luria makes ethics reform a primary centerpiece of her campaign platform, proposing bans on congressional stock trading and prediction market insider betting. She also advocates for mandatory jail sentences for public corruption and overturning Citizens United.

  • Proposes banning members of Congress and their families from trading individual stocks while in office
  • Proposes prohibiting public officials from using nonpublic information to trade prediction market contracts
  • Voted for the For the People Act to reform campaign finance laws and overturn Citizens United

“I support banning members of Congress and their families from trading individual stocks while holding office.”

“Members of Congress, congressional staff, executive branch employees, and political appointees should not use nonpublic information to buy, sell, or exchange prediction market contracts related to political outcomes or government policy.”

Republican Jennifer Kiggans

Opposes congressional stock trading abuses and misconduct

Kiggans attacks congressional self-enrichment and emphasizes government transparency. She highlights opponent stock trading records as evidence of Washington corruption and voted for federal transparency legislation.

  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405) to release unclassified DOJ records
  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge
  • Criticizes opponent for accumulated wealth from congressional stock trading

“Who is my democrat opponent? Someone who embodies the corruption of Washington, made $21 million trading stocks in Congress during her time there, and doesn't even live in the district!”

04

Military, veterans, and national security

high salience

Both candidates leverage 10+ years of Navy service to champion defense and veteran issues, with Luria emphasizing toxic exposure care under the PACT Act and Kiggans highlighting her leadership of the VA Oversight subcommittee and local base infrastructure investments.

Democratic Elaine Luria

Supports expanding veteran benefits and defense funding

A 20-year Navy veteran, Luria highlights her legislative experience on the House Armed Services and Veterans' Affairs committees. She supported major defense budgets, expanded toxic exposure care for veterans, and fought for military family healthcare.

  • Voted for the Sergeant First Class Heath Robinson Honoring our PACT Act of 2022 for toxic-exposed veterans
  • Chaired the House Veterans' Affairs Subcommittee on Disability Assistance and Memorial Affairs
  • Voted for annual National Defense Authorization Acts (NDAA) for FY 2020 through FY 2023

“I have served our country and the Commonwealth of Virginia since I was 17 years old, spending 20 years in the Navy as a nuclear engineer and four years as a member of Congress representing Hampton Roads.”

Republican Jennifer Kiggans

Supports robust military defense and VA oversight

A 10-year Navy helicopter pilot and veteran family member, Kiggans focuses on military readiness, pay protection during government shutdowns, and VA accountability. She chairs the VA Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations and authored legislation supporting veteran caregivers.

  • Chairs the House Veterans' Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigations
  • Authored the Caregiver Outreach and Program Enhancement (COPE) Act to expand mental health resources at VA facilities
  • Voted for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 and secured funding for Hampton Roads military infrastructure

“The military is not in the business of being political. They are in the business of exercising peace through strength.”

05

Border security and immigration

medium salience

Kiggans favors border wall funding, expanded law enforcement technology, and rapid deportation for criminal offenses, whereas Luria has voted to establish permanent legal pathways for Dreamers and TPS recipients.

Democratic Elaine Luria

Supports legal pathways and high-skilled visa reform

Luria supports immigration reform that pairs legal status for long-term residents with modernized visa systems. She voted for legislation offering legal residence to eligible Dreamers and Temporary Protected Status recipients.

  • Voted for the American Dream and Promise Act in 2019 and 2021
  • Voted for the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2020 to adjust employment visa caps

Republican Jennifer Kiggans

Supports strict border enforcement and physical wall funding

Kiggans strongly advocates for strict border security, funding for border wall construction, and increased immigration enforcement. She voted to mandate detention for undocumented immigrants arrested for theft and DUI offenses.

  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) mandating detention for undocumented immigrants charged with burglary or theft
  • Voted for $47 billion in border wall and enforcement funding through 2025 reconciliation votes
  • Voted for the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025 (H.R. 875)

“Jen is a supporter of Trump’s efforts to secure our border after the disastrous Biden administration’s disastrous management of it.”

06

Reproductive rights and abortion

medium salience

Luria voted for federal legislation codifying nationwide abortion rights, while Kiggans opposes federal abortion laws and advocates for state-level regulations with exceptions.

Democratic Elaine Luria

Supports codifying federal abortion access rights

Luria supports protecting abortion access at the federal level and prohibiting state-level restrictions on reproductive healthcare. She voted for federal statutory protections for abortion rights.

  • Voted for the Women's Health Protection Act of 2021 (H.R. 3755)
  • Endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund and Virginia NOW PAC

Republican Jennifer Kiggans

Supports state-level abortion laws with exceptions

Kiggans believes abortion policy should be decided by states rather than the federal government and opposes late-term procedures, while supporting exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. She also supports access to IVF and over-the-counter contraception.

  • Opposes federal abortion mandates and advocates state-level determination
  • Supports exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother
  • Supports expanding access to birth control without co-pays and protecting access to IVF

“While extreme politicians have overly politicized this issue, she believes abortion laws should be determined at the state level and is firmly opposed to the radical policies which would allow abortions up to the moment of birth.”

07

Voting rights and election security

medium salience

Luria voted for federal legislation expanding mail-in and early voting options, whereas Kiggans voted for federal requirements mandating proof of citizenship and photo ID for voter registration.

Democratic Elaine Luria

Supports federal voting rights and access expansion

Luria supports federal standards to expand voter registration, protect early and mail-in voting access, and reform campaign ethics. She also voted to impeach Donald Trump following the January 6 Capitol attack.

  • Voted for the For the People Act of 2019 and 2021
  • Voted for the Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act and the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022
  • Voted for the 2021 resolution impeaching Donald Trump for incitement of insurrection

Republican Jennifer Kiggans

Supports photo ID requirements and citizenship verification

Kiggans prioritizes election integrity by advocating for mandatory photo identification, prohibiting ballot harvesting, and verifying citizenship for federal elections. She voted for federal legislation mandating proof of citizenship for voter registration.

  • Voted for the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act (H.R. 22) requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote
  • Voted for the Save America Act requiring photo ID for voting
  • Opposes ballot harvesting and advocates for tight electoral security measures

“She is committed to stopping voting irregularities, maintaining a photo ID requirement, preventing ballot harvesting, and ensuring that all state election officials—not just those in battleground states—can keep our electoral process secure and transparent.”

08

Gun policy

low salience

Luria consistently voted for federal background check expansion and assault weapon bans, while Kiggans opposes restrictions on firearms and pledges to protect Second Amendment rights.

Democratic Elaine Luria

Supports universal background checks and assault weapon bans

Luria supports gun control legislation aimed at reducing gun violence. She voted for universal background checks for firearm transfers and restrictions on semiautomatic assault weapons.

  • Voted for the Bipartisan Background Checks Act in 2019 and 2021
  • Voted for the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022
  • Voted for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act of 2022

Republican Jennifer Kiggans

Opposes new firearm restrictions and defends Second Amendment

Kiggans opposes gun control legislation, describing herself as a firm defender of Second Amendment rights. She advocates for targeting violent criminals rather than restricting law-abiding gun owners.

  • Opposes federal bans or restrictions on firearms and ammunition devices
  • Pledges to defend Second Amendment rights without compromise

“Jen is a staunch defender of the Second Amendment who never compromises our right to bear arms.”

09

Education and cultural issues

low salience

Kiggans voted for the Parents Bill of Rights and restrictions on biological males competing in women's sports, while Luria voted for the Equality Act prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.

Democratic Elaine Luria

Supports LGBTQ+ protections and civil rights laws

Luria supports non-discrimination laws protecting LGBTQ+ individuals in public accommodations, housing, and schools. She voted for federal legislation banning discrimination based on sex, sexual orientation, and gender identity.

  • Voted for the Equality Act in 2019 and 2021
  • Voted for the Respect for Marriage Act in 2022

Republican Jennifer Kiggans

Supports parental rights and restrictions in women's sports

Kiggans advocates for parental rights in public education, school choice, and prohibiting biological males from competing in female school sports under Title IX. She opposes teaching Critical Race Theory in public schools.

  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28)
  • Voted for the Parents Bill of Rights
  • Opposes Critical Race Theory in public education

“Jen has consistently voted to protect women’s sports and athletics for biological women since her days in the Virginia Senate.”

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

VA-02 House Election Winner

81.5% Democrats
17.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 81.5REPUBLICANS 17.5

Kalshi ↗

VA-02 House winner?

82.0% Elaine Luria
18.0% Jennifer Kiggans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16LURIA 82.0PARTY 82.0PARTY 18.0KIGGANS 18.0

Kalshi ↗

VA-02 Democratic nominee?

99.9% Elaine Luria
3.4% Burk Stringfellow
3.0% Patrick Mosolf

+4 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16LURIA 99.9STRINGFELLOW 3.4SLEISTER 3.0MOSOLF 3.0OSYF 1.0STRICKLER 1.0DEVANATH 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.