Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Virginia Lean R

Virginia — 1st District

Portrait of Robert J. Wittman

Republican

Robert J. Wittman

The 2026 election for Virginia's 1st Congressional District features incumbent Republican Representative Robert J. Wittman running for re-election against Democratic nominee Shannon Taylor, Henrico County's Commonwealth's Attorney. The race hinges on Taylor's focus on congressional ethics reform, anti-corruption, cost-of-living relief, and public safety versus Wittman's 19-year legislative record, focus on national defense, conservative economic policy, and environmental stewardship of the Chesapeake Bay. Major election outlets rate the contest as Lean Republican (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball) or Likely Republican (Decision Desk HQ).

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
61.5%
Democrats
39.5%
Kalshi ↗
Robert J. Wittman
59.0%
Shannon Taylor
41.0%
Kalshi ↗
Shannon Taylor
99.0%
Lewis Littlepage
1.0%
Ericka Kopp
1.0%
Salaam Bhatti
1.0%
Jason Knapp
1.0%
James Shea
1.0%
Tim Cywinski
1.0%
Melvin Tull
1.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Taylor focuses on tax cuts for working families, breaking up corporate monopolies, and ending cost-spiking tariffs, while Wittman emphasizes reining in federal spending, curbing waste, and supporting pro-growth policies.

Democratic Shannon Taylor

Supports targeted tax cuts and anti-monopoly enforcement

Taylor connects high consumer prices to political corruption and corporate monopolies. She advocates cutting taxes for working families and small businesses, breaking up illegal monopolies in big tech, pharma, and banking, and reining in tariffs and foreign wars that drive up costs.

  • Proposes cutting taxes for middle-class working families and small businesses.
  • Supports legislation to break up illegal monopolies in big tech, pharmaceutical, and meatpacking/banking sectors.
  • Calls to rein in tariffs and endless wars driving up prices on groceries, gas, and consumer goods.

“Americans are struggling with the rising cost of living. Housing, groceries, healthcare, energy – all the basics of life have gotten significantly more expensive while wages haven't kept pace.”

“Shannon will fight to cut taxes for working families and small businesses – not for billionaires and corporate special interests.”

Republican Robert J. Wittman

Supports fiscal responsibility and pro-growth policies

Wittman focuses on controlling federal spending, identifying government waste and fraud, and supporting pro-growth economic policies to set future generations up for financial success.

  • Voted Yea on the reconciliation bill H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) in 2025.
  • Voted Yea on the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 to raise the debt limit and repeal certain green energy tax credits.
  • Voted Yea on the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 capping non-defense spending and rescinding unspent COVID-19 relief funding.

“We need to rein in Washington’s excessive spending problem and support an economic agenda that will support our families and businesses to thrive.”

“It is time to return to the conservative principle of controlling spending...”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Taylor advocates expanding ACA subsidies, rural hospital funding, and Medicare drug price negotiations, whereas Wittman supports market-oriented reforms focused on portability and access.

Democratic Shannon Taylor

Supports expanding ACA subsidies and Medicare negotiations

Taylor promises to protect healthcare access by restoring expired Affordable Care Act tax credits, restoring funding to rural hospitals, ending surprise medical billing, and expanding Medicare's prescription drug price negotiation powers.

  • Commitment to restore expired ACA subsidies to lower monthly health insurance premiums.
  • Pledges to restore funding for rural medical facilities like Rappahannock General Hospital.
  • Supports expanding Medicare's authority to negotiate prescription drug prices directly with pharmaceutical companies.
  • Advocates billing transparency to prevent surprise emergency medical bills.

“I will fight to restore the Affordable Care Act subsidies that Rob Wittman allowed to expire and restore funding for rural hospitals.”

Republican Robert J. Wittman

Supports market choice, portability, and accessibility

Wittman prioritizes increasing healthcare choice, portability, and accessibility across the nation while supporting efforts to lower costs through market-driven reforms.

  • Supports increasing healthcare affordability, accessibility, and portability for all citizens.
  • Voted Yea on the Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act of 2025.

“I believe we need to increase health care affordability, accessibility, and portability for all Americans.”

03

Public safety and crime

medium salience

Taylor emphasizes her 14-year record prosecuting violent crime and drug traffickers in Henrico County, while Wittman focuses on federal legislation expanding detention and deportation for non-citizens arrested for crimes.

Democratic Shannon Taylor

Highlights prosecutorial record and anti-fentanyl legislation

Taylor highlights her 14-year record as Henrico's Commonwealth's Attorney, citing an 80%-plus murder rate reduction over the past year and a 90% homicide conviction rate. She focuses on combating violent crime, human trafficking, scammers, and fentanyl while supporting law enforcement.

  • Cites an 80% reduction in Henrico County murder rates and a 90% homicide conviction rate under her tenure.
  • Created a task force to tackle the opioid epidemic and pioneered support programs for human trafficking victims.
  • Endorsed by 13 Virginia sheriffs across the commonwealth.
  • Supports federal legislation to remove fentanyl from communities and fund law enforcement.

“As Henrico's top prosecutor I have tried thousands of cases and put violent criminals, drug traffickers, and abusers behind bars.”

Republican Robert J. Wittman

Supports mandatory detention and immigration enforcement penalties

Wittman supports strengthening federal criminal enforcement, specifically voting to mandate detention and deportation grounds for non-citizens arrested for theft or DUI offenses.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for burglary, theft, or shoplifting.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 making driving while impaired or intoxicated grounds for deportation or inadmissibility for non-citizens.
04

Defense and military affairs

medium salience

Wittman advocates for strong global power projection, high defense spending, and veterans care, whereas Taylor calls to rein in foreign wars to cut national spending and inflation.

Democratic Shannon Taylor

Supports reining in foreign conflicts to reduce inflation

Taylor links defense policy to domestic costs, calling to end endless foreign wars and unnecessary foreign entanglements to bring down gas, food, and energy prices.

  • Calls for reining in endless foreign wars to reduce cost-of-living pressures on families.

“She will work to rein in the reckless tariffs and endless wars that are driving up the price of groceries, gas, and everyday goods.”

Republican Robert J. Wittman

Supports robust defense spending and veterans care

Wittman prioritizes military readiness, global power projection, deterring foreign adversaries, and expanding medical, educational, and job resources for military veterans.

  • Serves as Chair of the Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee and member of the House Armed Services Committee.
  • Member of the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party.
  • Voted Yea on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2024.

“America’s veterans deserve the highest quality medical care, the most efficient delivery of benefits possible, and access to educational and job opportunities.”

“It’s also incredibly important that our Armed Services are ready to meet the reality of the threats facing the United States and to project power around the globe to deter our adversaries.”

05

Energy and environment

medium salience

Taylor focuses on capping consumer energy costs and regulating data center power demands, whereas Wittman focuses on Chesapeake Bay conservation and expanding domestic oil, gas, and coal production.

Democratic Shannon Taylor

Opposes utility rate hikes and data center cost shifts

Taylor opposes utility rate increases and supports legislation mandating that new data center construction does not increase electricity costs for local families.

  • Opposes proposed utility price increases in Virginia.
  • Proposes requiring data center developments to fund their own power infrastructure without shifting costs onto residential consumers.

“She has also called for legislation to mandate that any new data center construction does not result in increased energy costs for our families.”

Republican Robert J. Wittman

Supports domestic energy expansion and Chesapeake Bay conservation

Wittman serves as Co-Chair of the Congressional Chesapeake Bay Caucus, focusing on land and water conservation while supporting legislation to boost domestic oil, gas, coal, and mineral production.

  • Co-Chair of the Congressional Chesapeake Bay Caucus and Chesapeake Bay Watershed Caucus.
  • Vice Chair of the House Committee on Natural Resources.
  • Voted Yea on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to boost domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production.

“The First District is home to the Chesapeake Bay – a critical resource to the environmental and economic health of our region and the Commonwealth.”

06

Elections and democracy

medium salience

Taylor advocates constitutional amendments to overturn Citizens United and force dark money disclosure, while Wittman voted for voter proof-of-citizenship requirements and voted against certifying 2020 electoral votes from Pennsylvania.

Democratic Shannon Taylor

Supports campaign finance reform and overturning Citizens United

Taylor advocates for comprehensive campaign finance reform, including constitutional amendments to overturn Citizens United and mandatory donor disclosures through the DISCLOSE Act.

  • Signed the Unrig Washington Pledge.
  • Supports a constitutional amendment (H.J.Res. 122) to overturn Citizens United v. FEC.
  • Co-sponsors the DISCLOSE Act (H.R. 7802) requiring Super PACs to disclose major donors.

“On my first day I will sign on to a constitutional amendment to reduce the ability of special interests to buy our elections and return power to where it belongs, to American citizens.”

Republican Robert J. Wittman

Supports voter citizenship verification and opposed 2020 certification

Wittman voted for federal legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote, opposed certifying Pennsylvania's 2020 electoral votes, and opposed Virginia's redistricting constitutional amendment.

  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.
  • Voted against certifying the 2020 electoral votes from Pennsylvania on January 6-7, 2021.
  • Opposed the April 2026 Virginia Use of Legislative Congressional Redistricting Map Amendment.
07

Government ethics and corruption

high salience

Taylor proposes strict structural ethics reforms including bans on stock trading and lobbying alongside term limits, whereas Wittman faces direct attacks from Taylor regarding his personal stock trades and wealth accumulation during his 19 years in office.

Democratic Shannon Taylor

Supports strict ethics and congressional reforms

Taylor makes cleaning up Washington corruption central to her campaign, proposing bans on stock trading and lobbying for members of Congress, 12-year House term limits, and mandatory jail time for public officials stealing taxpayer funds. She also pledges to reject corporate PAC money and support limiting presidential pardon powers.

  • Proposes mandatory minimum 1-year jail sentence for current or former members of Congress stealing $10,000 or more in taxpayer funds.
  • Advocates a lifetime ban on former members of Congress lobbying for corporations they once regulated.
  • Pledges not to buy or sell stock while in office and supports a statutory ban on congressional stock trading.
  • Proposes 12-year term limits for House members and pledges to abide by that limit personally regardless of passage.
  • Supports a constitutional amendment to restrict presidential pardon powers.
  • Pledges never to accept corporate PAC money.

“In Congress, one of my main priorities will be to implement commonsense legislation that restores trust in our elected officials.”

“When elected, I will draw a hard line on not buying or selling any stock while in office.”

Republican Robert J. Wittman No documented position in our sources
08

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Taylor is an outspoken defender of abortion rights who pledged not to prosecute patients or providers, while Wittman has no explicit abortion position documented in the provided campaign sources.

Democratic Shannon Taylor

Supports federal abortion rights and non-prosecution pledges

Taylor strongly defends abortion access, highlighting her decision as Commonwealth's Attorney to publicly pledge never to prosecute women or doctors for accessing or providing abortion care after Roe v. Wade was overturned.

  • Pledged post-Roe not to prosecute women seeking abortion care or doctors providing it.
  • Endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund, EMILY's List, and VA NOW PAC.

“When Roe v. Wade was overturned, Shannon was one of the first prosecutors in the country to defend the right for Virginia women to have the freedom to access abortion care.”

Republican Robert J. Wittman No documented position in our sources
09

Gender and sports policy

low salience
Democratic Shannon Taylor No documented position in our sources

Republican Robert J. Wittman

Supports restricting female sports participation based on biological sex

Wittman voted for federal legislation prohibiting school athletic programs from permitting biological males to participate in athletic programs designated for women or girls.

  • Voted Yea on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

VA-01 House Election Winner

61.5% Republicans
39.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 61.5DEMOCRATS 39.5

Kalshi ↗

VA-01 House winner?

59.0% Robert J. Wittman
41.0% Shannon Taylor
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16WITTMAN 59.0PARTY 54.0PARTY 53.0TAYLOR 41.0

Kalshi ↗

VA-01 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Shannon Taylor
1.0% Lewis Littlepage
1.0% Ericka Kopp

+5 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16TAYLOR 99.0KNAPP 1.0BHATTI 1.0KOPP 1.0CYWINSKI 1.0TULL 1.0LITTLEPAGE 1.0SHEA 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.