Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Texas Lean R

Texas — 35th District

Portrait of Carlos De La Cruz

Republican

Carlos De La Cruz

In Texas' newly redrawn 35th Congressional District, Democratic nominee Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County Sheriff's Office public information officer and veteran hostage negotiator, faces Republican nominee Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and small business owner. The open-seat race features no incumbents following Texas' August 2025 mid-decade redistricting, which modified district boundaries. Major race rating outlets favor the Republican nominee, with Cook Political Report and Inside Elections designating the district as Likely Republican, while Sabato's Crystal Ball and Decision Desk rate it as Lean Republican. The matchup hinges on De La Cruz's alignment with Donald Trump's platform on border security and economic relief versus Garcia's appeal as an old-school Democrat focused on working families, public safety, and affordable healthcare.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
58.5%
Republicans
38.5%
Kalshi ↗
Johnny Garcia
56.0%
Carlos De La Cruz
44.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

De La Cruz champions Texas conservatism, business experience, and cost reduction alongside Donald Trump, whereas Garcia emphasizes ensuring a level playing field and rewarding hard work for working-class families.

Democratic Johnny Garcia

Supports working families and economic opportunity

Garcia emphasizes his upbringing on San Antonio's West Side by a single mother to highlight his focus on working-class economic struggles. He advocates rewarding hard work and ensuring a fair, level playing field for working families.

  • Advocates rewarding hard work for Texas workers
  • Calls for leaders to maintain a level playing field so everyone plays by the same rules

“Johnny believes hard work should be rewarded, healthcare should be affordable, and safety should be everyone’s priority.”

“Johnny is living proof that if you give Texans the opportunity, we’ll do the work. But we need leaders to keep the playing field level and ensure everyone plays by the same rules.”

Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Promotes deregulation and tax relief

De La Cruz blames federal leadership for economic inflation and high living costs. Citing his experience founding a San Antonio kickboxing gym, he campaigns on cutting costs, bringing back manufacturing jobs, and applying conservative business principles.

  • Cites experience operating a small kickboxing business in San Antonio
  • Pledges to work alongside Donald Trump to bring back jobs and lower costs
  • Promotes conservative fiscal management to stretch dollars and live within means

“My wife and I built our San Antonio business the same way, sweating payroll, stretching every dollar, and living within our means. That’s common sense. That’s Texas conservatism.”

“I’ll fight alongside President Trump to bring back jobs, lower costs, and rebuild an economy that works for working families.”

02

Law enforcement and public safety

high salience

Garcia grounds his public safety platform in his 20-year background as a Bexar County sheriff's deputy and negotiator, while De La Cruz emphasizes providing police resources and attacking progressive law enforcement critics.

Democratic Johnny Garcia

Supports law enforcement and public safety

Garcia highlights his career of nearly two decades in local law enforcement as a Bexar County sheriff's deputy, SWAT hostage negotiator, and Public Information Officer. He frames public safety as a universal priority for all Texas families.

  • Served nearly 20 years with the Bexar County Sheriff's Office, including roles as a SWAT hostage negotiator and PIO
  • Endorsed by Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar
  • Designates public safety as a primary campaign pillar

“He has spent nearly two decades serving Bexar County as a deputy, SWAT hostage negotiator, and now as Public Information Officer for Sheriff Javier Salazar.”

“Johnny believes hard work should be rewarded, healthcare should be affordable, and safety should be everyone’s priority.”

Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Supports law enforcement funding and order

De La Cruz pledges unwavering backing for police officers, promising to supply law enforcement agencies with the resources needed to maintain order. He criticizes progressive rhetoric against law enforcement personnel.

  • Pledges to secure funding and resources for police officers to restore law and order
  • Opposes progressive political movements attacking law enforcement
  • Cites combat and border experience as foundation for understanding safety threats

“I will stand shoulder to shoulder with the brave men and women of law enforcement who risk their lives for us every day.”

“While the radical left still attacks them, I’ll make sure our officers have the resources they need to protect our families and restore law and order.”

03

Border security and immigration

high salience

De La Cruz advocates for strict border enforcement and increased Border Patrol resources based on his military deployments, while Garcia has no documented platform on border security.

Democratic Johnny Garcia No documented position in our sources

Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Supports stricter border security measures

De La Cruz emphasizes his firsthand experience deploying to the southern border during his 20-year Air Force career. He supports legal immigration while advocating for enhanced tools, manpower, and support for Border Patrol agents to stop criminal cartels.

  • Deployed to the southern border during 20 years of military service
  • Advocates for increased resources, manpower, and support for Border Patrol agents
  • Opposes criminal cartels exploiting border weaknesses while supporting legal immigration

“I’m the only candidate in this race who’s actually been deployed to the southern border. I’ve seen firsthand how the cartels exploit every weakness.”

“As President Trump says, we welcome legal immigration, but we cannot allow criminals and cartels to take advantage of our country.”

04

Healthcare

medium salience

Garcia explicitly highlights affordable healthcare as a primary priority, whereas De La Cruz outlines no general healthcare position beyond targeted programs for veterans and seniors.

Democratic Johnny Garcia

Supports affordable healthcare

Garcia identifies healthcare affordability as a core issue for working families. He advocates for policy measures that reduce costs and expand healthcare access.

  • Lists affordable healthcare as one of his top campaign principles

“Johnny believes hard work should be rewarded, healthcare should be affordable, and safety should be everyone’s priority.”

Republican Carlos De La Cruz No documented position in our sources
05

Veterans affairs

medium salience

De La Cruz prioritizes VA administrative reform based on his 20-year military career, whereas Garcia has no documented position on veterans issues.

Democratic Johnny Garcia No documented position in our sources

Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Advocates VA reform and veteran care

Drawing on his 20 years in the Air Force and his wife's career as a VA nurse practitioner, De La Cruz demands reform at the Department of Veterans Affairs. He calls for removing bureaucracy to ensure rapid medical care for veterans.

  • Served 20 years in the U.S. Air Force with deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan
  • Advocates cutting VA administrative bureaucracy to deliver prompt medical treatment
  • Leverages family experience with the VA healthcare system

“Veterans don’t need another speech or another layer of bureaucracy — they need results. Fast care, no red tape, no excuses.”

“I’m a veteran, and my wife has served as a VA nurse practitioner. We’ve seen the best and worst of the VA.”

06

Energy and environment

medium salience

De La Cruz calls for rolling back green regulations to achieve Texas energy dominance, while Garcia takes no position on energy or environmental policies.

Democratic Johnny Garcia No documented position in our sources

Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Supports American energy dominance

De La Cruz advocates for maximizing Texas energy production by dismantling environmental regulations. He argues energy independence lowers prices, creates jobs, and reinforces national security.

  • Pledges to roll back green energy regulations alongside Donald Trump
  • Promotes Texas energy dominance over foreign energy supplies
  • Connects local energy production to consumer price reductions and national security

“Together with President Trump, I’ll roll back radical green regulations and make sure Texans—not foreign dictators—control our energy future.”

“Energy independence means lower prices, stronger national security, and more good-paying Texas jobs.”

07

Senior rights, Social Security, and Medicare

medium salience

De La Cruz explicitly promises to protect Social Security and Medicare from progressive spending risks, whereas Garcia has no documented platform on senior benefits.

Democratic Johnny Garcia No documented position in our sources

Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Protects Social Security and Medicare

De La Cruz vows to protect Social Security and Medicare benefits for retirees. He accuses progressive politicians of putting senior entitlement programs at risk through wasteful spending.

  • Pledges to safeguard Social Security and Medicare entitlement benefits
  • Criticizes progressive federal spending for endangering senior benefits

“I will fight to protect Social Security and Medicare from the radical left politicians who want to put their benefits at risk with wasteful spending and handouts for those who haven’t earned them.”

08

Agriculture and water rights

medium salience

De La Cruz targets agricultural issues directly by demanding Mexican water treaty enforcement and regulatory relief, while Garcia has no documented position.

Democratic Johnny Garcia No documented position in our sources

Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Protects Texas farmers and ranchers

De La Cruz focuses on safeguarding agricultural producers by holding the Mexican government accountable to international water treaties. He also promises to eliminate federal red tape and shield domestic producers from foreign competition.

  • Demands compliance from Mexico on treaty-mandated water deliveries to Texas agricultural communities
  • Pledges to eliminate administrative red tape for agricultural operations
  • Promises protections against foreign agricultural competition

“I will keep fighting to hold the Mexican government accountable and ensure they deliver the water they owe our agricultural communities.”

“I’ll cut red tape, stop foreign competitors from undercutting us, and make sure Washington never forgets who puts food on American tables.”

09

Trade, manufacturing, and foreign policy

medium salience

De La Cruz pushes an America First platform centered on domestic manufacturing and opposing China, while Garcia takes no position on international trade.

Democratic Johnny Garcia No documented position in our sources

Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Supports America First trade policy

De La Cruz champions Donald Trump's America First agenda, focusing on repatriating manufacturing jobs and combating Chinese economic practices. He vows to resist globalist policy influences.

  • Advocates returning manufacturing capabilities to domestic supply chains
  • Supports aggressive trade stances against economic exploitation by China
  • Opposes international agreements that prioritize global interests over domestic workers

“That means securing our border, bringing manufacturing back home, and stopping communist China from ripping us off.”

“America should never bow to global elites—we put our people first, period.”

10

Social and cultural issues

low salience

De La Cruz campaigns on fighting left-wing cultural influence to defend faith and family, whereas Garcia takes no explicit stance on social issues.

Democratic Johnny Garcia No documented position in our sources

Republican Carlos De La Cruz

Opposes progressive cultural policies

De La Cruz positions himself against progressive social movements, promising to defend traditional faith, family values, and conservative speech against left-wing ideology.

  • Pledges to combat radical left cultural influences in education and public life
  • Commits to defending religious freedom, traditional family values, and free speech

“In Congress, I’ll fight alongside President Trump to defend faith, family, and freedom, and give America’s children the future they deserve.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

TX-35 House Election Winner

58.5% Democrats
38.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 58.5REPUBLICANS 38.5

Kalshi ↗

TX-35 House winner?

56.0% Johnny Garcia
44.0% Carlos De La Cruz
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16GARCIA 56.0CRUZ 44.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.