Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Texas Lean R

Texas’ 15th District race

Portrait of Monica De La Cruz

Republican

Monica De La Cruz

In Texas' 15th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz faces Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido in the November 3, 2026 general election. Following a mid-decade redistricting in August 2025 that altered 80% of the district's population, the race hinges on economic conditions, border policy, water access, and candidate visibility across newly drawn terrain. De La Cruz highlights her congressional legislative record and law enforcement backing, while Pulido campaigns as an independent Tejano voice focused on middle-class affordability.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
88.5%
Republicans
11.5%
Kalshi ↗
Bobby Pulido
90.0%
Monica De La Cruz
12.0%

All markets →

01

Border Security and Immigration

high salience

De La Cruz promotes strict enforcement measures like physical wall construction and reinstating Remain in Mexico, whereas Pulido emphasizes combining border enforcement with Central American vetting hubs and legal pathways for workers.

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Supports border enforcement and legal pathways

Pulido advocates for a common-sense approach that combines border security and criminal enforcement with expanded legal immigration channels. He supports targeting cartels and fentanyl supply lines, establishing Central American vetting hubs, and creating reasonable pathways to legalization for immigrant workers.

  • Deport violent criminals residing in the country illegally and target cartel-driven fentanyl supply lines.
  • Establish vetting hubs in Central America to organize migration flows before individuals arrive at the border.
  • Create fair legal pathways to legalization to support essential workforce needs for American businesses.

“Bobby believes South Texas doesn’t need border politics, it needs border solutions.”

“We can and should have more vetting hubs in Central America to help bring order to migration as we create a more fair and reasonable path to legalization for those who want to come here to contribute – because American businesses need a reliable workforce.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports strict border enforcement policies

De La Cruz supports hardline border security enforcement, including physical wall construction and ending detention alternatives. She advocates for reinstating Remain in Mexico, increasing Border Patrol resources, mandating E-Verify, and compensating local landowners for border-crossing damages.

  • Reinstate the Remain in Mexico policy and terminate Catch and Release.
  • Complete physical infrastructure along the southern border and expand support for Border Patrol agents.
  • Mandate E-Verify, hire additional immigration judges, and reimburse farmers for damages caused by illegal immigrant traffic.

“Reinstate the Remain in Mexico policy”

“Ensure that ranchers and farmers get reimbursed funds for confirmed damages due to illegal immigrant traffic”

02

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Pulido attributes high consumer prices to corporate price-gouging and small-business red tape, while De La Cruz blames inflation on federal deficit spending and advocates for tax cuts.

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Supports targeting price-gouging and bureaucratic red tape

Pulido focuses on lowering everyday costs for South Texas families by standing up to large corporations and reducing bureaucratic burdens on small businesses. He advocates for workforce training, apprenticeships, and local higher-wage job creation.

  • Confront large corporations to lower consumer prices on basic necessities like food and fuel.
  • Cut red tape and regulatory burdens that hamper small businesses and local entrepreneurs.
  • Invest in vocational skills and apprenticeships to build higher-paying jobs in South Texas.

“The truth is costs are through the roof and crushing families and small businesses down here.”

“I will stand up to the big greedy corporations that have been raising prices on Americans who are already struggling to pay for basic necessities.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports tax cuts and reduced federal spending

De La Cruz prioritizes curbing inflation by cutting federal spending and reducing taxes on working families and small businesses. She also advocates for domestic energy affordability and holding foreign competitors accountable.

  • Cut federal spending to stop driving up inflation.
  • Lower tax burdens on working families and small businesses.
  • Hold Communist China accountable for economic practices that undermine American workers.

“Cut wasteful Washington spending that is driving inflation”

“Lower taxes on working families and small businesses”

03

Agriculture and Water Policy

high salience

While both candidates insist Mexico meet its water treaty obligations, Pulido opposes tariffs as harmful to agricultural markets, whereas De La Cruz authored legislation explicitly threatening tariffs on Mexico over water debt.

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Supports open trade, water infrastructure, and treaty enforcement

Pulido opposes agricultural tariffs and trade wars that increase production costs for local farmers and ranchers. He advocates for bold regional water infrastructure investments, including desalination, and demands Mexico honor its Rio Grande water obligations.

  • Oppose tariffs and trade wars that restrict international market access for local agricultural producers.
  • Invest in regional water infrastructure, modern irrigation systems, and desalination facilities.
  • Hold Mexico accountable for fulfilling its water treaty obligations to South Texas farmers.

“Tariffs and trade wars are driving up costs and closing off opportunities, leaving too many of our families struggling to keep up.”

“I’ll fight to hold Mexico accountable for water treaty obligations and build a regional strategy that prioritizes South Texas families and farmers.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports deregulation, tariff threats, and water pressure on Mexico

De La Cruz created the South Texas Water Working Group and authored legislation to impose tariffs on Mexico if it continues withholding water under the Rio Grande treaty. She also supports eliminating economic regulations on farmers and fixing export supply chain bottlenecks.

  • Introduced legislation to impose tariffs on Mexico over non-compliance with the Rio Grande water treaty.
  • Eliminate economic regulations that hinder farm and ranch profitability.
  • Fix export supply chain bottlenecks to facilitate American agricultural trade.

“Monica introduced the Water Assurance and Treaty Enforcement for Rio Grande Farmers Act, which would place tariffs on Mexico if it keeps failing to meet”

“Eliminate regulations on farmers and ranchers that prohibit economic prosperity”

04

Healthcare and Senior Benefits

medium salience

Pulido attacks De La Cruz for voting for H.R. 1 which he argues put Medicaid and seniors at risk, while De La Cruz highlights her co-sponsorship of legislation protecting senior benefits and Medicare.

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Supports protecting Medicare, Medicaid, and rural health access

Pulido advocates for protecting Medicare and Social Security as essential safety nets while negotiating lower prescription drug and care costs. He criticizes De La Cruz for her vote on reconciliation legislation that he claims endangered Medicaid and South Texas seniors.

  • Protect and strengthen Medicare and Social Security safety net programs.
  • Lower prescription drug prices and overall healthcare costs through federal rate negotiation.
  • Invest in rural health clinics and hospitals to ensure access to care.

“For starters, I believe that, like Social Security, Medicare is a promise and a critical safety net that we have to keep and make stronger.”

“Here’s another truth – our current representative took orders from her party leaders and voted for a so-called “big beautiful bill” that put Medicaid and South Texas seniors at risk.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports protecting Medicare and Social Security benefits

De La Cruz explicitly commits to protecting Medicare and Social Security for senior citizens. She co-sponsored federal legislation aimed at preventing cuts to seniors' benefits.

  • Protect Medicare and Social Security programs from benefits cuts.
  • Co-sponsor legislation designed to safeguard financial security for senior citizens.

“Protect Medicare and Social Security”

“Co-sponsored legislation preventing cuts to seniors’ benefits”

05

Energy Policy

medium salience
Democratic Bobby Pulido No documented position in our sources

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports domestic oil, gas, and energy independence

De La Cruz opposes federal energy regulations that increase consumer costs and advocates for full American energy independence. She supports oil, natural gas, and nuclear power while rejecting Green New Deal proposals.

  • Support domestic oil and natural gas jobs and production.
  • Eliminate energy regulations to lower prices and restore energy independence.
  • Reject Green New Deal policies while supporting nuclear energy and technology-driven pollution control.

“Support oil and natural gas jobs”

“Reject radical socialist Green New Deal policies”

06

Federal Spending and National Debt

medium salience
Democratic Bobby Pulido No documented position in our sources

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports a Balanced Budget Amendment and spending cuts

De La Cruz advocates for fiscal restraint to control inflation and supports passing a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. She also supports financial incentives for federal employees who identify government waste, fraud, and abuse.

  • Support a constitutional Balanced Budget Amendment.
  • Stop federal deficit spending to curb rising inflation.
  • Incentivize federal employees who expose waste, fraud, and abuse in government programs.

“Back a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution”

“Incentivize Federal workers to save taxpayer money by rewarding employees who identify waste, fraud and abuse”

07

Education

medium salience

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Opposes school vouchers and supports public school funding

Pulido strongly opposes school voucher programs that divert public funds to private institutions. He advocates for higher teacher pay, reduced classroom overcrowding, and expanded vocational and skills training in public schools.

  • Oppose school voucher schemes that redirect public funds to private schools.
  • Increase public school teacher salaries and address classroom overcrowding.
  • Invest in technical skills training and vocational programs for students.

“That’s why I oppose voucher schemes that drain money from our classrooms and send it to private schools.”

“That’s why I will focus on making sure teachers get paid better for educating our sons and daughters, on reducing classroom overcrowding, and investing in skills training so every student is prepared to do the jobs of tomorrow or to create the businesses that will take our South Texas economy into the future.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

TX-15 House Election Winner

88.5% Democrats
11.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 88.5REPUBLICANS 11.5

Kalshi ↗

TX-15 House winner?

90.0% Bobby Pulido
12.0% Monica De La Cruz
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31PULIDO 90.0CRUZ 12.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.