Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Texas Lean R

Texas — 15th District

Portrait of Monica De La Cruz

Republican

Monica De La Cruz

In Texas' 15th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz faces Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido in the November 3, 2026, general election. Following Texas' mid-decade redistricting in August 2025, approximately 80% of the redrawn district consists of territory De La Cruz did not represent in previous cycles, rendering the race highly competitive despite Donald Trump carrying the new district boundaries by 18 points in 2024. Major election forecasters rate the matchup as Lean Republican or Tilt Republican, while recent August 2026 polling shows Pulido holding a narrow lead within the margin of error.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
64.5%
Republicans
36.5%
Kalshi ↗
Bobby Pulido
62.0%
Monica De La Cruz
39.0%

All markets →

01

Border security and immigration

high salience

De La Cruz advocates for strict enforcement policies like Remain in Mexico and wall construction, whereas Pulido emphasizes a balanced approach combining cartel enforcement with expanded legal pathways and Central American vetting hubs.

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Supports common-sense border security and legal reform

Pulido advocates for securing the border and disrupting cartel supply lines while creating fair legal pathways for immigrants. He criticizes Washington politicians for prioritizing border politics over practical solutions that protect local communities and support the regional economy.

  • Target violent criminals illegally in the U.S. and interrupt cartel drug supply lines, including fentanyl.
  • Establish vetting hubs in Central America to manage migration flow.
  • Create fair legal pathways to legalization to address workforce needs for American businesses.

“Bobby believes South Texas doesn’t need border politics, it needs border solutions.”

“We can more effectively attack the flow of fentanyl and other cartel driven drug supply lines into our country.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports strict enforcement and border infrastructure

De La Cruz advocates for hardline border enforcement policies, including reinstating Remain in Mexico, ending Catch and Release, and completing border physical infrastructure. In Congress, she passed legislation targeting fentanyl trafficking and voted for measures requiring mandatory detention for noncitizens arrested for theft.

  • Reinstate Remain in Mexico, end Catch and Release, and complete southern border infrastructure.
  • Support Border Patrol agents, hire additional immigration judges, and mandate E-Verify.
  • Reimburse farmers and ranchers for property damage caused by illegal immigration.
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act and the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act.

“Her efforts have earned her endorsements from the National Border Patrol Council and local law enforcement.”

02

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Pulido focuses on cracking down on corporate price gouging and cutting red tape for small businesses, while De La Cruz emphasizes curbing federal spending and lowering taxes.

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Focuses on lowering costs and corporate accountability

Pulido focuses on lowering everyday costs for working families by confronting corporate price gouging on essentials like groceries and fuel. He advocates cutting red tape for small businesses and investing in local job skills and apprenticeships.

  • Stand up to large corporations accused of raising prices on basic necessities.
  • Reduce regulatory red tape that hampers local small businesses and entrepreneurs.
  • Invest in skills training and apprenticeships to build higher-wage local jobs.

“The truth is costs are through the roof and crushing families and small businesses down here.”

“I will stand up to the big greedy corporations that have been raising prices on Americans who are already struggling to pay for basic necessities.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports spending cuts and lower taxes

De La Cruz champions curbing inflation by cutting wasteful federal spending and lowering taxes on families and small businesses. She also advocates making energy affordable through domestic production and holding China accountable for economic practices.

  • Cut wasteful Washington spending to combat inflation.
  • Lower taxes on working families and small businesses.
  • Hold Communist China accountable for undermining American workers.

“Cut wasteful Washington spending that is driving inflation”

03

Agriculture and water infrastructure

high salience

De La Cruz highlights her legislative initiatives on water debt deliveries and guest-worker legislation, whereas Pulido emphasizes opposing tariffs and funding new desalination and irrigation projects.

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Supports open markets and water investments

Pulido supports South Texas agricultural producers by opposing tariffs and trade wars that restrict export markets. He calls for urgent regional water investments, including desalination and modern irrigation, while demanding Mexico honor treaty water obligations.

  • Oppose tariffs and trade wars that increase agricultural costs and close export markets.
  • Secure bold investments in desalination, modern irrigation, and water infrastructure.
  • Hold Mexico accountable for its water treaty obligations to South Texas.

“Tariffs and trade wars are driving up costs and closing off opportunities, leaving too many of our families struggling to keep up.”

“If we can’t secure our water, we can’t secure the Valley’s future.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Promotes regulatory relief and water enforcement

De La Cruz emphasizes protecting farmers by cutting economic regulations, opposing trade tariffs, and securing federal disaster aid. She established the South Texas Water Working Group, pressured Mexico on water debt deliveries, and introduced agricultural guest-worker legislation.

  • Eliminate economic regulations on farmers and ranchers and fix agricultural supply chains.
  • Created the South Texas Water Working Group and pressured the Mexican government to deliver owed water.
  • Introduced the Bracero Program 2.0 Act to address agricultural labor shortages.

“A champion for South Texas agriculture, she created the South Texas Water Working Group to address the region’s water needs and is leading the charge to pressure the Mexican government to meet its water debt.”

04

Healthcare and senior benefits

medium salience

Pulido supports expanding healthcare access and criticizes De La Cruz's budget votes on Medicaid, while De La Cruz highlights her co-sponsorship of bills protecting Medicare and Social Security.

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Supports expanding access and protecting entitlements

Pulido aims to lower healthcare costs by strengthening rural hospitals, expanding mental health access, and negotiating prescription drug prices. He vows to protect Medicare and Medicaid, criticising De La Cruz's budget votes as risks to senior care.

  • Strengthen community clinics and rural hospitals to keep care accessible.
  • Lower prescription drug costs and expand mental health services.
  • Protect Medicare and Medicaid safety nets from federal spending cuts.

“Too many families are one diagnosis away from financial ruin.”

“our current representative took orders from her party leaders and voted for a so-called “big beautiful bill” that put Medicaid and South Texas seniors at risk.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports protecting Medicare and Social Security

De La Cruz emphasizes safeguarding safety-net entitlement programs for seniors. She co-sponsored legislation to prevent cuts to Medicare and Social Security benefits.

  • Protect Medicare and Social Security programs from budget cuts.
  • Co-sponsored legislation preventing reductions in senior benefits.

“Co-sponsored legislation preventing cuts to seniors’ benefits”

05

Education

medium salience

Pulido focuses on public school funding and opposing voucher programs, whereas De La Cruz's documented education stance centers on federal restrictions regarding female sports participation.

Democratic Bobby Pulido

Opposes school vouchers and supports public education

Pulido opposes private school voucher programs, arguing they drain money from public school classrooms. He advocates for raising teacher salaries, reducing classroom overcrowding, and expanding job skills training.

  • Oppose voucher programs that divert funding from public classrooms to private schools.
  • Increase teacher salaries and reduce classroom overcrowding.
  • Invest in vocational and skills training programs for students.

“I oppose voucher schemes that drain money from our classrooms and send it to private schools.”

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports restrictions on female sports participation

De La Cruz voted for federal legislation prohibiting individuals whose biological sex is male from competing in female school athletic programs. Her official campaign platform does not list a broader education agenda.

  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025.
06

Energy policy

medium salience
Democratic Bobby Pulido No documented position in our sources

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports domestic fossil fuels and energy independence

De La Cruz advocates for American energy independence by supporting oil, natural gas, and nuclear power production. She favors eliminating federal regulations that increase fuel costs and opposes Green New Deal initiatives.

  • End regulations that increase energy costs and support oil and natural gas jobs.
  • Invest in domestic nuclear energy and energy independence.
  • Reject Green New Deal policies while supporting technological pollution reduction.

“Reject radical socialist Green New Deal policies”

07

Federal spending and national debt

low salience
Democratic Bobby Pulido No documented position in our sources

Republican Monica De La Cruz

Supports balanced budget and spending cuts

De La Cruz supports constitutional structural reforms to curb national debt and deficit spending. She advocates for a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and financial incentives for federal workers to expose waste.

  • Support a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
  • Stop deficit spending to control inflation.
  • Incentivize federal employees to identify waste, fraud, and abuse.

“Back a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

TX-15 House Election Winner

64.5% Democrats
36.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 64.5REPUBLICANS 36.5

Kalshi ↗

TX-15 House winner?

62.0% Bobby Pulido
39.0% Monica De La Cruz
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PULIDO 62.0CRUZ 39.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.