Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Tennessee Safe R

Tennessee — 6th District

Portrait of Johnny Garrett

Republican

Johnny Garrett

The 2026 election for Tennessee's 6th Congressional District features Democratic nominee Mike Croley and Republican nominee Johnny Garrett competing for an open seat after Republican incumbent John Rose announced a run for governor. The race takes place under a redrawn congressional map enacted in May 2026, which incorporated new areas reaching further into Nashville. Major election forecasters classify the district as Solid/Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
94.5%
Democrats
5.5%
Kalshi ↗
Johnny Garrett
97.8%
Mike Croley
2.7%
Kalshi ↗
Johnny Garrett
99.0%
Natisha Brooks
1.0%
Jon Henry
1.0%
Van Hilleary
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Mike Croley
99.0%
Lore Bergman
1.0%
Christopher Martin Finley
1.0%
Megan Barry
1.0%
Miriam Leibowitz
1.0%
Chaney Mosley
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy, Taxes, and Cost of Living

high salience

Garrett advocates for permanent tax cuts, ending taxes on tips and Social Security, and enforcing a balanced federal budget, whereas Croley calls for higher taxes on the ultra-rich, ending tariffs, and capping private equity housing investments.

Democratic Mike Croley

Supports lower costs and progressive taxes

Croley focuses on relieving cost-of-living burdens on working families, high grocery and gasoline prices, and housing unaffordability. He proposes eliminating tariffs, capping private equity housing holdings, and raising taxes on the ultra-rich to fund public safety net programs.

  • Eliminate tariffs that harm importers and small business owners
  • Tax the ultra-rich fairly and close tax loopholes
  • Build affordable housing and cap private equity firm residential holdings
  • Strengthen labor standards and facilitate unionization

“Groceries are too high, gasoline is too expensive, and healthcare has been unaffordable for years – and it’s getting worse.”

“Get rid of Trump’s reckless tariffs.”

“Tax the rich fairly and close tax loopholes.”

Republican Johnny Garrett

Supports fiscal conservatism and tax cuts

Garrett promotes strict fiscal discipline and small-government policies modeled on Tennessee's state budget practices. He advocates for making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and eliminating federal taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits.

  • Pass a balanced federal budget similar to Tennessee state government
  • Make President Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent and expand them
  • Eliminate federal income taxes on Social Security, tips, and overtime pay

“Tennessee is proof that fiscal conservatism works, and Johnny believes that we need more Tennessee in Washington.”

“That’s why he will always fight to lower taxes and ensure that President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are not only permanent, but also expand them further to keep more money in your own pocket, not the government’s. We shouldn’t tax social security, tips or overtime.”

02

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

Garrett supports completing the border wall and using the military and Guantanamo Bay for mass deportations, while Croley calls for scaling back funding for DHS and ICE to curb workplace enforcement raids.

Democratic Mike Croley

Supports ICE oversight and immigration reform

Croley criticizes aggressive immigration enforcement that disrupts local workforces and small businesses. He calls for scaling back funding for the Department of Homeland Security and ICE to ensure legislative oversight and reform.

  • Dramatically scale back funding for DHS and ICE to enforce operational reforms
  • Highlight economic and local workplace disruptions caused by ICE enforcement raids

“Dramatically scale back funding for DHS and ICE to make sure reforms can’t be sidestepped”

“I’ve heard from franchise owners and construction workers how much they have to tighten their belts when the threat of an ICE raid means their staff are too afraid to come into work.”

Republican Johnny Garrett

Supports border wall and mass deportations

Garrett views border security as central to national security and supports rigorous enforcement policies. In the Tennessee legislature, he backed creating a State Border Czar to work with ICE and supports completing a physical border wall and utilizing military resources for deportations.

  • Created a State Border Czar in Tennessee to assist ICE with deportations
  • Support completing the physical southern border wall
  • Support using the military and federal facilities like Guantanamo Bay to deport illegal immigrant criminals

“Johnny knows that border security is national security.”

“He is also fully committed to supporting President Trump’s use of the military and Guantanamo Bay to deport illegal immigrant criminals out of our country, stop the flow of drugs across our border, and keep terrorists from coming into our country.”

03

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Garrett holds a 100% pro-life position believing life begins at conception, whereas Croley advocates for expanding access to women's reproductive healthcare.

Democratic Mike Croley

Supports expanding reproductive healthcare access

Croley advocates for protecting and expanding women's reproductive healthcare services at the federal level.

  • Increase healthcare access and protections for women's reproductive services

“Increase access to women’s reproductive healthcare”

Republican Johnny Garrett

Opposes abortion and supports pro-life laws

Garrett maintains an absolute pro-life stance, stating that human life begins at conception. He highlights his record defending restrictions on abortion in the Tennessee House and endorsements from Tennessee Right to Life.

  • Believes life begins at conception
  • Endorsed annually by Tennessee Right to Life during his state legislative tenure
  • Defended anti-abortion legislation in the Tennessee General Assembly

“Johnny is 100% Pro-Life. He believes that life begins at conception, and he will always fight as a voice for the voiceless.”

04

Environment and Energy

medium salience

Croley prioritizes environmental conservation, clean water, and climate resilience initiatives, while Garrett emphasizes expanding domestic energy infrastructure to power new technological industries.

Democratic Mike Croley

Supports climate action and conservation

Drawing on his background as an environmental engineer, former park ranger, and NOAA fellow, Croley prioritizes climate resilience, clean water, and conservation. He opposes cutting federal environmental programs and advocates promoting ecotourism to create local jobs.

  • Protect public lands, water quality, and environmental safety standards
  • Promote ecotourism in rural Tennessee to support sustainable economic growth
  • Led climate resilience initiatives during service at NOAA

“I’m passionate about environmental protection, public education, veterans' services, and rural revitalization.”

“I'm here to save the planet.”

Republican Johnny Garrett

Supports expanding domestic energy infrastructure

Garrett emphasizes expanding domestic energy infrastructure to support emerging technologies like artificial intelligence while keeping power costs low for consumers.

  • Expand domestic energy infrastructure to power domestic AI computing capacity without raising consumer prices

“supporting strong domestic energy infrastructure to power AI systems without burdening consumers.”

05

Government Reform and Accountability

medium salience

Both candidates support congressional term limits, but Croley further proposes banning stock trading and lobbying for members of Congress, overturning Citizens United, and expanding the House.

Democratic Mike Croley

Supports ethics, term limits, and campaign reform

Croley advocates for comprehensive ethics and transparency measures, including banning members of Congress from trading stocks or becoming lobbyists, enacting term limits, overturning Citizens United, and expanding the U.S. House of Representatives.

  • Ban members of Congress from trading stocks and becoming corporate lobbyists
  • Enact term limits for members of Congress
  • Overturn Citizens United v. FEC and reform campaign finance rules
  • Release unredacted Epstein files under transparency legislation

“Overhaul campaign finance laws to ban Congressmen from trading stocks and becoming lobbyists”

“Enact term limits for members of Congress”

Republican Johnny Garrett

Supports congressional term limits

Garrett advocates for limiting congressional tenure and signed a term limits pledge to curb federal overreach.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits pledge for federal legislators

“U.S. Term Limits”

06

Education and Culture Issues

medium salience

Garrett highlights his state legislative record restricting transgender women from female sports, while Croley emphasizes increasing teacher salaries and public school funding.

Democratic Mike Croley

Supports higher teacher pay and public education funding

Croley prioritizes public school funding and raising teacher salaries, opposing performative cultural controversies in education policy.

  • Increase funding for underfunded public schools
  • Raise teacher pay and support educators

“My campaign is grounded in common sense and service: protect our environment, legalize marijuana, pay teachers what they’re worth, and stop selling out rural Tennesseans for short-term profit.”

Republican Johnny Garrett

Supports restricting transgender participation in sports

Garrett highlights his state legislative record passing legislation that bans biological men from competing in women's sports and accessing female locker rooms.

  • Passed state legislation in Tennessee banning biological males from female sports competitions
  • Partnered with female athletic advocates to promote federal protections for women's sports

“As State Representative, Johnny passed legislation banning men from competing in women’s sports and will continue to stand up for common sense in Washington to protect women’s sports.”

07

Agriculture and Rural Development

medium salience

Garrett highlights legislative tax cuts for agricultural water usage and support for a federal Farm Bill, whereas Croley focuses on infrastructure spending, local ecotourism, and protecting rural towns from corporate exploitation.

Democratic Mike Croley

Supports rural infrastructure and local farming

Croley focuses on investing in rural infrastructure, protecting rural Tennesseans from corporate exploitation, and expanding economic opportunities through hemp/marijuana farming and ecotourism.

  • Direct federal investment into rural infrastructure and healthcare
  • Protect small rural communities from short-term corporate exploitation

“stop selling out rural Tennesseans for short-term profit. I’ll fight for fair wages, access to healthcare, and real investment in rural infrastructure, not performative culture wars.”

Republican Johnny Garrett

Supports farm tax cuts and federal Farm Bill

Garrett highlights his legislative work in Tennessee cutting sales taxes on agricultural water use and pledges to support a strong federal Farm Bill to protect farmers and ranchers from federal regulatory encroachment.

  • Sponsored tax cuts in Tennessee removing sales taxes on utility district water used by farmers
  • Support a comprehensive federal Farm Bill that protects agricultural operations

“In Congress, Johnny is committed to ensuring that our farmers and ranchers have the tools they need to be successful without the Government encroaching upon their livelihood.”

08

Law Enforcement and Veterans Services

medium salience

Garrett focuses on enacting tougher legal penalties for assaults on police officers and funding first responders, while Croley focuses on reforming healthcare access for military veterans.

Democratic Mike Croley

Supports VA healthcare reform and agency oversight

As a disabled Navy veteran, Croley focuses on reforming the Veterans Affairs healthcare system and increasing healthcare access for veterans, while insisting on accountability for federal law enforcement and security agencies.

  • Expand healthcare access and streamline services for disabled military veterans
  • Improve federal agency oversight and accountability

“I’m a disabled veteran who’s navigated the VA system and knows we can do better.”

Republican Johnny Garrett

Supports law enforcement and first responders

Garrett emphasizes strong backing for law enforcement and emergency services. In the state legislature, he authored legislation classifying the murder of a police officer as a terrorist crime and expanded health benefits for firefighters.

  • Passed legislation classifying police officer murder as a terrorist crime
  • Expanded state health benefits for firefighters
  • Organize annual fundraisers to benefit district volunteer fire departments

“He led the fight to pass legislation that classifies murdering a police officer as a terrorist crime.”

09

Cannabis Legalization

low salience

Democratic Mike Croley

Supports federal marijuana legalization and taxation

Croley advocates for legalizing, regulating, and substantially taxing marijuana at the federal level to generate state revenue and support agricultural development.

  • Legalize marijuana federally
  • Enact substantial tax rates on commercial marijuana to fund economic growth

“I support legalizing marijuana and taxing it substantially to support economic growth.”

Republican Johnny Garrett No documented position in our sources
10

Foreign Policy and Defense

low salience
Democratic Mike Croley No documented position in our sources

Republican Johnny Garrett

Supports Israel and opposing Chinese influence

Garrett supports strong defense aid for Israel against regional adversaries including Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. He also supports restricting Communist China from acquiring domestic farmland or intellectual property.

  • Provide full military aid and support to Israel
  • Restrict Chinese Communist Party entities from buying American farmland

“Johnny believes Israel has a fundamental right to defend itself against terrorist organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the world’s largest state sponsor of terror, Iran.”

11

Artificial Intelligence and Technology

low salience
Democratic Mike Croley No documented position in our sources

Republican Johnny Garrett

Supports U.S. leadership in AI innovation

Garrett advocates for establishing federal standards to advance U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence, protect intellectual property from foreign adversaries, and ensure sufficient energy infrastructure to power technology growth.

  • Partner federal government with domestic tech innovators to build AI standards
  • Protect American intellectual property from theft by China and Russia
  • Build robust domestic energy capacity for AI technology

“Johnny believes the United States should be the world leader in advancing AI and emerging technologies.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

TN-06 House Election Winner

94.5% Republicans
5.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 94.5DEMOCRATS 5.5

Kalshi ↗

TN-06 House winner?

97.8% Johnny Garrett
2.7% Mike Croley
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16GARRETT 97.8PARTY 95.5PARTY 5.0CROLEY 2.7

Kalshi ↗

TN-06 Republican nominee?

99.0% Johnny Garrett
1.0% Natisha Brooks
1.0% Jon Henry

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16GARRETT 99.0HENRY 1.0BROOKS 1.0HILLEARY 1.0

Kalshi ↗

TN-06 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Mike Croley
1.0% Lore Bergman
1.0% Christopher Martin Finley

+3 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16CROLEY 99.0MOSLEY 1.0BARRY 1.0FINLEY 1.0LEIBOWITZ 1.0BERGMAN 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.