Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Tennessee Safe R

Tennessee — 5th District

Portrait of Charlie Hatcher

Republican

Charlie Hatcher

In Tennessee's 5th Congressional District, former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher (R) faces Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder (D) in the November 3, 2026 general election. Hatcher defeated incumbent Rep. Andy Ogles in the August 6 Republican primary after district boundaries were redrawn in May 2026. Molder advanced from a five-candidate Democratic primary highlighting his municipal leadership record. Major election forecasters rate the race as Solid/Safe Republican following redistricting that made the district more favorable for Republicans.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
87.5%
Democrats
11.7%
Kalshi ↗
Charlie Hatcher
90.0%
Chaz Molder
11.0%
Kalshi ↗
Charlie Hatcher
99.0%
Patrick Smith
3.0%
Andy Ogles
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Chaz Molder
99.0%
Rachel Hurley
12.0%
DeVante R Hill
1.0%
Yolanda Cooper-Sutton
1.0%
Carrie Ann Iacomini
1.0%

All markets →

01

Government reform & efficiency

high salience

Molder focuses on ethics reform like banning congressional stock trading, whereas Hatcher emphasizes making the federal government more efficient through a pragmatic, Trump-aligned work ethic.

Democratic Chaz Molder

Supports congressional stock trading ban

Molder advocates for restoring public trust in government through ethics reforms, including a strict ban on stock trading by members of Congress. He emphasizes practical local governance over national political conflict.

  • Advocate for a ban on stock trading by members of Congress
  • Promote government transparency, accountability, and ethical standards
  • Focus on constituent-focused local results rather than seeking national media attention

“As your Congressman, I will be committed to restoring trust in our government by advocating for a ban on stock trading by members of Congress.”

“We deserve a congressman who wants to go to Washington to make local headlines for the right reasons, instead of attempting to make national headlines for the wrong reasons.”

Republican Charlie Hatcher

Supports government efficiency and Trump alignment

Hatcher emphasizes bringing a work-hard farmer's mentality to Washington to increase federal government efficiency and results. He aligns himself with President Donald Trump, criticizing political showmanship in Congress.

  • Prioritize making the federal government run more efficiently with business and agricultural common sense
  • Support President Donald Trump's legislative agenda by focusing on execution over talk
  • Contrast his pragmatic 'work horse' approach against congressional 'show' politics

“Think what President Trump could do if our congressman spent less time talking and more time doing.”

“I consider myself a work horse and my opponent is a show horse.”

02

Economy & cost of living

high salience

Molder emphasizes direct cost reduction on household necessities and labor organization rights, while Hatcher relies on his track record as an entrepreneur and agricultural commissioner.

Democratic Chaz Molder

Supports lowering costs and labor rights

Molder advocates for federal policies aimed at reducing everyday costs for groceries, housing, and healthcare for Tennessee families. He also champions organized labor protections and highlights his municipal fiscal record of passing eight balanced budgets.

  • Lower everyday living expenses including groceries, housing, and healthcare
  • Protect workers' right to organize and strengthen labor protections
  • Highlight municipal fiscal experience having passed eight consecutive balanced budgets as mayor

“I am dedicated to championing affordability for Tennessee families, farmers, and seniors. This means advocating for policies that lower everyday expenses, such as healthcare, housing, and groceries.”

Republican Charlie Hatcher

Supports business growth and agriculture

Hatcher leverages his private-sector experience as a business founder and state Agriculture Commissioner to support economic growth. He positions his background as a fifth-generation farmer and owner of eight businesses as the foundation for economic policy.

  • Promote business experience from founding eight successful enterprises including Hatcher Family Dairy
  • Apply agricultural commissioner leadership to support local farmers and agribusiness
  • Emphasize private-sector entrepreneurship to solve economic challenges

“a livestock veterinarian, started eight successful businesses from scratch including the Hatcher Family Dairy.”

03

Healthcare

medium salience

Democratic Chaz Molder

Supports expanding care and rural hospitals

Molder treats affordable healthcare as a basic right, prioritizing lower care costs and support for rural hospitals. He advocates for expanding health insurance coverage and investing in preventive care services.

  • Ensure rural hospitals receive direct financial and operational support to prevent closures
  • Lower out-of-pocket healthcare costs for constituents
  • Expand health insurance coverage and invest in community preventive services

“I am committed to fighting for lower healthcare costs and ensuring that our rural hospitals receive the support they need to stay open and serve our families effectively.”

Republican Charlie Hatcher No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

TN-05 House Election Winner

87.5% Republicans
11.7% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 87.5DEMOCRATS 11.7

Kalshi ↗

TN-05 House winner?

90.0% Charlie Hatcher
11.0% Chaz Molder
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 90.0HATCHER 90.0MOLDER 11.0PARTY 10.0

Kalshi ↗

TN-05 Republican nominee?

99.0% Charlie Hatcher
3.0% Patrick Smith
1.0% Andy Ogles
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16HATCHER 99.0SMITH 3.0OGLES 1.0

Kalshi ↗

TN-05 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Chaz Molder
12.0% Rachel Hurley
1.0% DeVante R Hill

+2 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MOLDER 99.0HURLEY 12.0COOPER-SUTTON 1.0IACOMINI 1.0HILL 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.