Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Tennessee Safe R

Tennessee — 2nd District

Portrait of Michaela Barnett

Democrat

Michaela Barnett

In Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District, four-term incumbent Republican Tim Burchett faces Democratic challenger Michaela Barnett in the November 3, 2026 general election following mid-decade redistricting. The race hinges on contrasting visions for East Tennessee, balancing Burchett's conservative record on tax cuts, government deregulation, and border security against Barnett's platform focused on cost of living, government reform, healthcare access, and infrastructure investment. Major election handicappers—including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill—unanimously rate the contest as Solid or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
95.5%
Democrats
5.5%
Kalshi ↗
Tim Burchett
98.0%
Michaela Barnett
2.0%

All markets →

01

Economy & Cost of Living

high salience

Barnett favors worker-centric economic legislation and targeted regional investments, while Burchett advocates cutting federal spending, reducing tax burdens, and eliminating government regulations.

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports worker-focused economy and wage growth

Barnett argues that the cost of living for groceries, housing, and healthcare has outpaced wage growth for East Tennesseans. She advocates passing legislation that supports workers, families, and innovation rather than policies that benefit the ultra-rich.

  • Calls for legislative action to address soaring prices for gas, groceries, and housing
  • Warns against short-sighted policies causing manufacturing job losses and hurting small businesses and farmers
  • Advocates support for union membership and worker-centric economic policy

“As an entrepreneur, innovator, and jobs-creator, I believe that East Tennesseans should have access to abundant, good jobs that contribute to our society and economy.”

“Gas prices are soaring, groceries cost too much, and rents are out of control all across East Tennessee.”

Republican Tim Burchett

Supports tax cuts and deregulation

Burchett opposes federal tax increases and excess spending, contending that government regulations stifle business growth. Drawing from his background as a former small business owner, he advocates reducing the tax burden and cutting red tape to spur jobs.

  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing tax hikes
  • Voted for H.R. 1 reconciliation bill addressing tax policy and statutory debt limits
  • Voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 to raise debt limits while capping spending

“Our federal government already taxes and spends too much. The last thing we need to do is raise more taxes and spend more of America’s hard-earned money.”

“As a small business owner who ran his own mulch company and was put out of business by liberal government regulations, Tim knows from first-hand experience that government doesn’t...”

02

Government Reform & Transparency

high salience

Barnett focuses on banning congressional stock trading and reforming campaign finance laws, whereas Burchett emphasizes government transparency and congressional term limits.

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports banning congressional stock trading

Barnett prioritizes government reform to eliminate corruption and stop special interest influence in Washington. She advocates banning stock trading by members of Congress, overhauling campaign finance laws, and ending gerrymandering.

  • Proposes banning members of Congress from buying and selling individual stocks
  • Supports campaign finance reform to limit corporate influence in elections
  • Advocates ending gerrymandering so voters choose politicians rather than politicians choosing voters

“Right now, members of Congress get rich from trading stocks while their constituents at home struggle.”

“If we are going to solve any of the crises we face – access to affordable healthcare and housing, ensuring that AI doesn’t take all of our jobs, repairing our roads, and so many more – we have to fix what’s broken in our government.”

Republican Tim Burchett

Supports congressional term limits and transparency

Burchett stresses government transparency to hold politicians accountable for federal spending. He supports congressional term limits to prevent lawmakers from becoming beholden to special interest groups.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits candidate pledge
  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act requiring public release of investigative materials
  • Advocates strict public access to federal spending disclosures

“There’s no question about it: The longer politicians stay in Washington, the more beholden they become to the special-interests who line their pockets.”

“Tim believes in the public’s right to know, especially when it comes to their hard-earned tax dollars.”

03

Healthcare

high salience

Barnett supports universal healthcare access and curbing pharmaceutical profits, while Burchett advocates repealing Obamacare in favor of market-driven solutions.

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports affordable and accessible healthcare

Barnett views quality healthcare as a fundamental right and criticizes pharmaceutical companies and insurers for prioritizing shareholder profits. She aims to lower prescription costs and expand access in a state ranking low in life expectancy and maternal mortality.

  • Measures healthcare performance by patient health rather than shareholder profitability
  • Highlights Tennessee's ranking of 45th in life expectancy and high maternal mortality
  • Calls for curbing price gouging by big pharma and health insurance companies

“Quality healthcare should be affordable and accessible to everyone who needs it.”

“A healthcare system’s success should be measured by how many patients it heals, not how much profit it generates for its shareholders.”

Republican Tim Burchett

Supports repealing and replacing Obamacare

Burchett characterizes the U.S. healthcare system as failing and advocates repealing Obamacare. He favors replacing federal healthcare mandates with free-market solutions that increase patient choice and lower costs.

  • Opposes the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)
  • Advocates market-based replacements to lower consumer prices
  • Supports expanding consumer healthcare access without government mandates

“Health care in this country is a disaster, plain and simple. Congress promised to repeal Obamacare and replace it with a system that actually lowers prices and increases access...”

04

Immigration & Border Security

medium salience

Barnett supports a commonsense, dignified immigration system, while Burchett advocates strict border enforcement, voting for H.R. 2 and the Laken Riley Act.

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports commonsense, dignified immigration system

Barnett includes establishing a commonsense, dignified immigration system as one of her core campaign priorities.

  • Lists a commonsense, dignified immigration system as a key policy platform item

“A COMMONSENSE, DIGNIFIED IMMIGRATION SYSTEM”

Republican Tim Burchett

Supports strict border security enforcement

Burchett supports strict enforcement of federal immigration laws and securing the southern border. He has voted for major Republican border enforcement legislation and supported the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

  • Voted for the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2)
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring detention of unauthorized immigrants arrested for theft crimes
  • Voted for H.Res. 863 to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas

“As mayor, Tim has welcomed new immigrants to our country at local naturalization services because he recognizes that we are a country of immigrants.”

05

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Barnett advocates for reproductive freedom, while Burchett opposes abortion and earned a 100 percent rating from Tennessee Right to Life.

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports reproductive freedom

Barnett positions reproductive freedom as a foundational platform item on her campaign website.

  • Identifies reproductive freedom as a key campaign issue priority

“REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM”

Republican Tim Burchett

Opposes abortion and supports pro-life laws

Burchett is strongly pro-life and earned a 100 percent rating from Tennessee Right to Life. In the state legislature, he sponsored legislation to amend the state constitution to restrict abortion.

  • Earned a 100% rating with Tennessee Right to Life
  • Sponsored state constitutional amendment legislation protecting unborn life
  • Opposes federal funding for abortion providers

“Tim is proudly pro-life and earned a 100 percent rating with Tennessee Right to Life.”

06

Guns & Second Amendment

medium salience

Barnett supports responsible gun ownership measures, whereas Burchett advocates expanding firearm rights and holds a handgun carry permit.

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports responsible gun ownership

Barnett supports responsible gun ownership measures to enhance community safety while respecting firearm rights.

  • Lists responsible gun ownership as a key policy priority

“RESPONSIBLE GUN OWNERSHIP”

Republican Tim Burchett

Supports expanding Second Amendment rights

Burchett is an avid gun owner with a handgun carry permit who consistently votes to expand Second Amendment rights. In state government, he sponsored legislation expanding gun carry privileges.

  • Holds a handgun carry permit and is an active firearm owner
  • Sponsored state legislative bills expanding gun rights
  • Opposes federal restrictions on gun ownership

“Tim is an avid gun owner with a handgun carry permit. In the state legislature, he sponsored legislation to expand gun rights...”

07

Energy & Environment

medium salience

Barnett focuses on environmental protection and regulating new energy-intensive industries, while Burchett favors domestic fossil fuel production and energy independence.

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports environmental protection

Barnett stresses protecting East Tennessee's natural environment and advocates for regulatory oversight of energy-intensive data centers and artificial intelligence expansion.

  • Includes environmental protection on her campaign platform
  • Advocates regulating AI and massive data centers to mitigate resource demands

“PROTECT OUR ENVIRONMENT”

Republican Tim Burchett

Supports domestic energy production

Burchett views energy production as crucial for job creation and national security. He supports utilizing domestic oil, natural gas, and coal resources to achieve energy independence.

  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to expand oil, gas, and coal production
  • Opposes green energy tax credits and federal energy permitting restrictions
  • Advocates domestic resource utilization to achieve energy independence

“Energy is an economic issue, a jobs issue, and a national security issue. We are blessed with an abundance of natural resources that can provide our own people with...”

08

Veterans

low salience

Barnett calls for expanded services and support for veterans, while Burchett emphasizes 100 percent backing for service members and military families.

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports expanding veteran services

Barnett includes serving veterans as a top platform objective for her campaign in East Tennessee.

  • Highlights serving veterans as a primary policy priority

“SERVE OUR VETERANS”

Republican Tim Burchett

Supports full backing for veterans

Burchett comes from a military family and asserts that the nation owes complete support to veterans for securing national freedom. He votes for legislation funding military construction and veteran affairs.

  • Comes from a family of military veterans
  • Voted for appropriations extending funding for Veterans Affairs
  • Advocates 100 percent backing and health resources for service members

“Veterans make up one percent of our population, but we owe them 100 percent of our freedoms.”

09

Education

low salience

Barnett prioritizes federal funding for public school renovations, while Burchett voted to restrict transgender participation in school athletics.

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports increased public education investment

Barnett prioritizes public education funding and modernizing school infrastructure across East Tennessee.

  • Highlights $300 million needed for local school building renovations
  • Includes investing in public education on her key priorities list

“Our schools need more than $300 million in renovations.”

Republican Tim Burchett

Supports restricting transgender women in school sports

Burchett voted for federal legislation to prohibit transgender women from participating in school athletic programs designated for women and girls.

  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28)

“prohibit school athletic programs from allowing individuals whose sex was male to participate in programs for women or girls.”

10

Infrastructure & Community Investment

medium salience

Democratic Michaela Barnett

Supports federal infrastructure investment

Holding a PhD in Civil Engineering, Barnett highlights that regional infrastructure has failed to match East Tennessee's population growth. She pledges to bring federal tax dollars home to fix local roads, bridges, water systems, and schools.

  • Highlights $3 billion needed in regional road and bridge repairs
  • Cites $450 million in water system repairs and $300 million in school renovation needs
  • Notes that state funding covers only one-third of regional infrastructure requirements

“Our roads and bridges need $3 billion in investments. Our schools need more than $300 million in renovations. Our water systems need $450 million in repairs.”

“We send tax dollars to Washington. We deserve a Representative who will bring those dollars home and invest in our region.”

Republican Tim Burchett No documented position in our sources
11

Foreign Policy & National Security

low salience
Democratic Michaela Barnett No documented position in our sources

Republican Tim Burchett

Supports national defense and Israel alliance

Burchett prioritizes American national security and opposes foreign influence from international bodies like the United Nations. He emphasizes strong support for Israel as America's key ally in the Middle East.

  • Considers Israel America's single greatest ally in the Middle East
  • Opposes international organizations dictating U.S. security policy
  • Voted for the Servicemember Quality of Life Improvement and NDAA for FY2025

“Tim believes that Israel is our single greatest ally. As the only democracy in the Middle East, Israel and America share a common commitment to freedom, the rule of...”

“Tim believes in putting American security first. We should never allow international organizations, like the United Nations, to bully the United States...”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

TN-02 House Election Winner

95.5% Republicans
5.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 95.5DEMOCRATS 5.5

Kalshi ↗

TN-02 House winner?

98.0% Tim Burchett
2.0% Michaela Barnett
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16BURCHETT 98.0PARTY 95.5PARTY 4.5BARNETT 2.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.