Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · South Dakota Safe R

South Dakota — At-Large District

Portrait of Marty J. Jackley

Republican

Marty J. Jackley

Democrat Nicole Gronli faces Republican South Dakota Attorney General Marty J. Jackley in the open-seat race for South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District in November 2026, following incumbent Representative Dusty Johnson's retirement to run for governor. Jackley campaigns heavily on his extensive law enforcement career, Trump endorsement, agricultural background, and conservative policy platform, while Gronli emphasizes a pragmatic approach to government reform. Major nonpartisan political handicappers—including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill—rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
94.5%
Democrats
3.5%
Kalshi ↗
Marty J. Jackley
97.5%
Nicole Gronli
2.8%

All markets →

01

Role of government

low salience

While Jackley focuses on eliminating federal regulations and cutting Washington bureaucracy, Gronli argues that government does not necessarily need to be reduced or enlarged, but rather made to work better.

Democratic Nicole Gronli

Supports pragmatic efficiency over government growth

Gronli frames her candidacy around making existing government institutions function more effectively rather than expanding their scope. She emphasizes listening to residents and exercising leadership that delivers better service to South Dakotans.

  • Focus on improving government delivery and performance rather than increasing government size
  • Prioritize responsive listening and collaborative leadership

“I don’t believe government needs to be bigger… I think it needs to be BETTER.”

Republican Marty J. Jackley

Supports cutting red tape and federal overreach

Jackley advocates reducing federal authority and cutting administrative red tape, promising to reject Washington political maneuvering in favor of practical results.

  • Eliminate unnecessary federal rules affecting agriculture and small business
  • Reject Washington partisanship to focus on state results

“South Dakota sent me to get things done, not to play Washington games.”

02

Border security & immigration

high salience
Democratic Nicole Gronli No documented position in our sources

Republican Marty J. Jackley

Supports securing border and completing wall

Jackley links illicit meth and fentanyl on South Dakota streets directly to an unsecured southern border, drawing on his experience prosecuting drug traffickers as U.S. Attorney and state Attorney General. He calls for completing construction of the border wall and providing law enforcement with full backing to stop drug pipelines.

  • Complete construction of the southern border wall
  • Support law enforcement and prosecutors to stop illegal drug trafficking originating at the border
  • Leverage prosecutorial experience to target drug cartels and traffickers

“The meth and fentanyl on our streets come across an open border. I have prosecuted the traffickers who bring it here. Secure the border, finish the wall, and let law enforcement do its job.”

03

Crime & public safety

high salience
Democratic Nicole Gronli No documented position in our sources

Republican Marty J. Jackley

Supports strong prosecution and backing police

Highlighting his tenure as South Dakota Attorney General and U.S. Attorney, Jackley makes public safety a primary centerpiece of his campaign. He promises to ensure police officers, sheriffs, and prosecutors have the resources, authority, and professional support needed to keep communities safe.

  • Provide police, sheriffs, and prosecutors with necessary tools and resources
  • Prioritize strict prosecution of violent criminals and drug traffickers
  • Utilize over a decade of executive law enforcement experience in federal and state office

“I have spent my career putting violent criminals behind bars. In Congress I will back our police, sheriffs, and prosecutors with the tools and the respect they have earned. Public safety comes first.”

04

Agriculture

high salience
Democratic Nicole Gronli No documented position in our sources

Republican Marty J. Jackley

Supports deregulation and fair agricultural trade

Jackley cites his background owning a farm in Vale and a ranch near Pierre to demonstrate his connection to South Dakota producers. He pledges to advocate for fair commodity markets, equitable international trade, and the reduction of federal regulations affecting farmers and ranchers.

  • Reduce federal regulatory burdens on agricultural operations
  • Advocate for fair market conditions and international trade agreements
  • Represent rural communities using direct personal experience as a farm and ranch owner

“Farmers and ranchers feed this country. I have a farm at Vale and a ranch near Pierre, so I know what a bad year costs a family. I will fight for fair markets, honest trade, and less Washington red tape.”

05

Second Amendment

medium salience
Democratic Nicole Gronli No documented position in our sources

Republican Marty J. Jackley

Opposes gun control and defends gun rights

Jackley considers Second Amendment protections absolute and non-negotiable. He emphasizes his background as a gun owner, hunter, and parent, along with an A+ rating from the National Rifle Association.

  • Oppose federal gun control legislation and restrictions on firearm ownership
  • Promote safe gun ownership and hunting traditions
  • Maintain an A+ rating from the National Rifle Association

“The right to keep and bear arms is not negotiable. I hunt, I raised my kids around firearms handled right, and I have an A+ rating from the NRA. I will defend the Second Amendment every time.”

06

Economy & taxation

medium salience
Democratic Nicole Gronli No documented position in our sources

Republican Marty J. Jackley

Supports tax cuts and Trump economic platform

Jackley explicitly aligns his economic priorities with former President Donald Trump's 'America First' platform. He focuses on cutting federal taxes and curbing government spending and administrative bureaucracy.

  • Pass federal tax cuts
  • Support 'America First' trade and economic measures
  • Reduce federal regulatory spending and government interference

“President Trump endorsed me, and I support his agenda. Secure the border, cut taxes, and put America first.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

SD-AL House Election Winner

94.5% Republicans
3.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 94.5DEMOCRATS 3.5

Kalshi ↗

SD-AL House winner?

97.5% Marty J. Jackley
2.8% Nicole Gronli
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16JACKLEY 97.5GRONLI 2.8

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.