Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Pennsylvania Safe

Pennsylvania — 16th District

Portrait of Justin Wagner

Democratic

Justin Wagner

Portrait of Mike Kelly

Republican

Mike Kelly

Incumbent

The 2026 general election for Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District features seven-term Republican incumbent Representative Mike Kelly against Democratic challenger Justin Wagner, a combat veteran, engineer, and union advocate. Rated Solid Republican or Safe Republican by major election handicappers including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill, the race hinges on Kelly's long record of conservative economic, tax, and deregulatory policies versus Wagner's populist platform focused on middle-class affordability, labor rights, government ethics, and expanding social safety programs.

01

Economy and taxation

high salience

Wagner advocates raising taxes on corporations and high earners to fund public investments, whereas Kelly supports lower tax rates and deregulation to stimulate private business growth.

Justin Wagner

Supports higher corporate taxes

Wagner blames corporate power and the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for driving income inequality and federal deficits. He advocates raising corporate tax rates, closing tax loopholes, and ensuring high earners pay their fair share so working families are not burdened with higher effective tax rates than billionaires.

  • Opposes the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and supports closing its tax loopholes
  • Proposes raising tax rates on corporations and high-income earners
  • Supports raising the federal minimum wage and tying it to inflation

“The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was the ultimate bait and switch for Pennsylvania families.”

Mike Kelly

Supports tax cuts and deregulation

Kelly advocates for pro-growth economic policies, including tax cuts for middle-income families and small businesses, alongside rolling back federal regulations. He supports making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing all tax increases.

  • Supports simplifying the tax code and preserving small business tax cuts
  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing net tax hikes
  • Voted for H.R. 1 reconciliation and fiscal year budget resolutions

“We need common sense, pro-growth policies that remove barriers to economic growth.”

02

Social Security and Medicare

high salience

Wagner wants to expand Social Security solvency by removing the payroll tax cap on high earners, while Kelly emphasizes protecting program solvency through broader economic and job growth.

Justin Wagner

Opposes cuts and privatization

Wagner opposes any efforts to cut Social Security or Medicare benefits, raise the retirement age, or privatize the programs. He proposes removing the taxable wage cap so wealthy individuals pay payroll taxes on all of their income to keep the trust funds solvent.

  • Opposes raising the Social Security retirement age or privatizing benefits
  • Supports co-sponsoring the Social Security Expansion Act (H.R. 1700)
  • Advocates lifting the payroll tax cap on high earners

“When I get to Congress, I will defend your social security trust fund. I will flatly oppose any effort to cut benefits, raise the retirement age, or privatize the system.”

Mike Kelly

Protects benefits through growth

Kelly emphasizes preserving Social Security and Medicare for seniors by keeping the broader economy strong, arguing that wage taxes from working citizens sustain the trust funds. He also highlights legislative efforts to reduce prescription drug costs.

  • Emphasizes protecting Social Security and Medicare for seniors
  • Argues robust job growth and wage taxes keep entitlement programs solvent
  • Supported legislation to make low-cost generic drugs accessible

“My third priority is protecting Social Security and Medicare for seniors and reducing health care costs for all Americans.”

03

Healthcare

high salience

Wagner advocates a single-payer Medicare for All system, whereas Kelly favors market-based approaches like expanding generic drug availability and repealing taxes on employer health plans.

Justin Wagner

Supports Medicare for All

Wagner advocates for universal healthcare through Medicare for All (H.R. 3069) to eliminate medical debt and surprise emergency bills. He supports capping out-of-pocket healthcare costs, protecting the Affordable Care Act, and allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

  • Co-sponsors the Medicare for All Act (H.R. 3069)
  • Supports capping out-of-pocket medical costs and banning surprise billing
  • Opposes cuts to Medicaid and Medicare

“Medical debt is now the number-one cause of family bankruptcy in America.”

Mike Kelly

Favors market-based healthcare reforms

Kelly focuses on reducing healthcare costs through market-driven reforms, such as increasing access to generic drugs and eliminating taxes on employer health benefits. He led bipartisan efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act's 'Cadillac Tax.'

  • Sponsored legislation to make low-cost generic drugs available
  • Led efforts to delay and eliminate the ACA's Cadillac Tax on employer health plans
  • Voted for key healthcare provisions in federal budget legislation

“Pursuing policies that lower health care costs will continue to be a priority for me if I am re-elected.”

04

Energy and environment

medium salience

Wagner advocates strict environmental regulations and clean energy transition, while Kelly promotes an 'all-of-the-above' energy strategy emphasizing domestic fossil fuel production alongside renewables.

Justin Wagner

Supports clean energy transition

Wagner calls for aggressive federal action on climate change, strictly enforcing the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, and investing in clean energy jobs. He demands stricter penalties for corporate environmental polluters.

  • Supports strengthening and enforcing the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts
  • Advocates federal investment in clean energy jobs and emissions reduction
  • Demands strict penalties for corporate environmental polluters

“Enforcement needs teeth. Polluters need consequences, not a slap on the wrist, leaving families and individuals to bear the consequences.”

Mike Kelly

Supports all-of-the-above energy

Kelly promotes an 'all-of-the-above' energy approach, advocating domestic production of coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear power, and renewable sources. He voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to expand domestic fossil fuel production.

  • Supports domestic energy production using coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, solar, and wind
  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to expand domestic energy production
  • Opposes regulatory burdens on domestic energy developers

“Our energy policy should include an “all of the above” and “everything below” approach to addressing our current and future energy needs.”

05

Education

medium salience

Wagner opposes school vouchers to preserve public school funding, while Kelly supports school choice and vouchers alongside local community control.

Justin Wagner

Opposes school vouchers

Wagner opposes school vouchers that divert public tax dollars to private schools. He advocates for fully funding public K-12 classrooms, Title I programs, special education, and Pell Grants for higher education and vocational training.

  • Opposes school voucher programs that reduce funding for public schools
  • Supports fully funding Title I, special education, and preschool programs
  • Advocates protecting Pell Grant funding for colleges and technical schools

“I do not support school vouchers that take away from public school funding.”

Mike Kelly

Supports local control and choice

Kelly emphasizes local community control over education spending, accountability, expanding parental school choice, and increasing career and technical education programs alongside traditional colleges.

  • Supports expanding parental school choice and educational options
  • Advocates local community flexibility over educational spending
  • Promotes career and technical education programs

“As a former school board member, I know first-hand that spending massive amounts of money on education does not always lead to positive results.”

06

Government reform and ethics

medium salience

Wagner advocates structural government reforms like term limits and stock trading bans, whereas Kelly focuses reform efforts on curbing federal spending and bureaucracy.

Justin Wagner

Supports congressional term limits

Wagner has pledged to reform Washington by voting for congressional term limits, banning members from trading individual stocks, restricting lobbying, overturning Citizens United, and enforcing a Supreme Court code of ethics.

  • Supports a 12-year term limit for Congress (6 House terms / 2 Senate terms)
  • Pledges to vote to ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks
  • Supports overturning Citizens United and enforcing Supreme Court ethics

“Public service should not be a lifelong career. I will vote to limit service to a maximum of 12 years total—6 terms in the House and 2 terms in the Senate.”

Mike Kelly

Favors spending limits and oversight

Kelly focuses government reform on reducing government size, limiting federal spending, ensuring constitutional limits on all three branches of government, and providing high-quality constituent services.

  • Focuses on reducing government size and limiting federal spending
  • Emphasizes strict adherence to constitutional limits on federal authority
  • Highlights non-partisan recognition for outstanding congressional constituent service

“We need to reduce the size of government and limit our spending.”

07

Foreign policy and national defense

medium salience

Wagner seeks to limit executive war powers and foreign military aid, whereas Kelly favors robust defense spending and foreign intelligence capabilities.

Justin Wagner

Opposes endless foreign conflicts

Wagner advocates reining in executive war powers and opposes U.S. entanglements abroad. He rejects foreign political PAC influence, opposes U.S. military aid to Israel's campaign in Gaza, and calls for an end to unauthorized military actions.

  • Pledges to restrict unilateral executive war-making
  • Rejects AIPAC contributions and opposes military funding for Israel's campaign in Gaza
  • Supports restricting foreign intervention while assisting military veterans

“No more blank checks. No more unauthorized conflicts. No more pointless wars.”

Mike Kelly

Supports robust defense spending

Kelly advocates for strong military funding to ensure readiness against foreign enemies. He supports foreign intelligence collection tools for counterterrorism while maintaining civil liberty protections.

  • Supports robust funding and equipment for U.S. armed forces
  • Supports foreign intelligence counterterrorism tools with civil liberty protections
  • Endorses strong national defense capabilities

“We need a strong military that is prepared to protect Americans from our enemies now and in the future.”

08

Immigration and border security

medium salience

Wagner emphasizes constitutional due process and legal pathways to citizenship, whereas Kelly votes for strict enforcement, mandatory detention, and deportation measures.

Justin Wagner

Supports reform with due process

Wagner advocates securing borders while enforcing constitutional due process and legal pathways for immigrants. He supports earned citizenship pathways for DACA recipients and agricultural workers while opposing unmonitored enforcement practices.

  • Supports strict independent oversight and due process in immigration enforcement
  • Advocates earned citizenship pathways for DACA recipients and essential workers
  • Opposes corporate exploitation of undocumented workers that depresses local wages

“As a combat veteran, I swore an oath to defend the Constitution. Watching masked agents act without accountability is beyond inhumane... it is a betrayal of the basic American legal principles we fought to protect.”

Mike Kelly

Supports strict border enforcement

Kelly supports strict border enforcement, voter citizenship verification, and mandatory detention for foreign nationals committing crimes. He voted for the SAVE Act, the Laken Riley Act, and DUI deportation legislation.

  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) mandating DHS detention for foreign nationals arrested for theft
  • Voted for H.R. 875 making DUI grounds for deportation
09

Veterans affairs

low salience

Wagner emphasizes expanding public VA mental healthcare and preventing VA privatization, whereas Kelly focuses on VA healthcare system improvements alongside private-sector job training opportunities.

Justin Wagner

Supports expanding VA resources

As a combat veteran, Wagner supports expanding mental healthcare funding, protecting veteran housing initiatives, and opposing efforts to privatize VA healthcare services.

  • Supports expanding mental health funding and housing initiatives for veterans
  • Opposes privatization of VA healthcare services
  • Promotes veteran housing and transition programs

Mike Kelly

Supports VA healthcare improvements

Kelly supports improving the VA healthcare system, increasing job training and educational opportunities for veterans, and ensuring military veterans receive all earned federal benefits.

  • Supports improvements to the VA healthcare system
  • Advocates job training and educational opportunities for veterans
  • Committed to securing earned benefits for military veterans

“In addition to making improvements to the VA healthcare system, I am also committed to serving our veterans by making sure that adequate job training and educational opportunities are available for them.”

10

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Justin Wagner

Supports federal abortion protections

Wagner strongly supports federal protections for abortion access and reproductive healthcare. He pledges to codify Roe v. Wade, pass the Right to Contraception Act, repeal the Comstock Act, and end the Hyde Amendment.

  • Supports passing the Women's Health Protection Act to codify Roe v. Wade
  • Co-sponsors the Right to Contraception Act
  • Supports repealing the Comstock Act and ending the Hyde Amendment

“I will vote to pass the Women’s Health Protection Act, ensuring that reproductive freedom is the law of the land, regardless of who sits on the Supreme Court.”

Mike Kelly No documented position in our sources
11

Housing affordability

medium salience

Justin Wagner

Supports private equity ban

Wagner proposes restricting corporate ownership of residential real estate to lower housing costs. He supports legislation banning hedge funds and private equity firms from purchasing single-family homes and advocates expanding federal homebuyer programs.

  • Supports banning hedge funds and private equity firms from buying single-family homes
  • Sponsors the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act
  • Supports expanding VA home loan programs

“Every family deserves the chance to put down roots. Housing should be achievable — not something reserved for investors and out-of-town money.”

Mike Kelly No documented position in our sources
12

Gun policy

medium salience

Justin Wagner

Supports background checks and safety

Wagner supports gun ownership rights for law-abiding citizens while advocating common-sense gun safety measures, including universal background checks, constitutional red flag laws with due process, and crackdowns on illegal firearm trafficking.

  • Supports universal background checks for firearm sales
  • Advocates constitutional red flag laws with judicial due process protections
  • Supports crackdowns on straw purchases and illegal gun trafficking

“Law-abiding citizens have an absolute, unambiguous right to bear arms.”

Mike Kelly No documented position in our sources
13

Technology and data privacy

low salience

Justin Wagner

Supports AI and privacy regulations

Wagner advocates establishing an Independent Federal AI Safety Authority and national data privacy standards to protect workers and consumers from algorithmic manipulation and corporate price-fixing.

  • Supports the American Privacy Rights Act (APRA) for national data privacy standards
  • Supports the Preventing Algorithmic Collusion Act to stop AI price-fixing
  • Advocates creating an Independent Federal AI Safety Authority

“Leaving this technology without guardrails is irresponsible at best.”

Mike Kelly No documented position in our sources