2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Pennsylvania Safe
Pennsylvania — 16th District
Democratic
Justin Wagner
Republican
Mike Kelly
Incumbent
The 2026 general election for Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District features seven-term Republican incumbent Representative Mike Kelly against Democratic challenger Justin Wagner, a combat veteran, engineer, and union advocate. Rated Solid Republican or Safe Republican by major election handicappers including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill, the race hinges on Kelly's long record of conservative economic, tax, and deregulatory policies versus Wagner's populist platform focused on middle-class affordability, labor rights, government ethics, and expanding social safety programs.
Economy and taxation
high salienceWagner advocates raising taxes on corporations and high earners to fund public investments, whereas Kelly supports lower tax rates and deregulation to stimulate private business growth.
Justin Wagner
Supports higher corporate taxes
Wagner blames corporate power and the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for driving income inequality and federal deficits. He advocates raising corporate tax rates, closing tax loopholes, and ensuring high earners pay their fair share so working families are not burdened with higher effective tax rates than billionaires.
- Opposes the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and supports closing its tax loopholes
- Proposes raising tax rates on corporations and high-income earners
- Supports raising the federal minimum wage and tying it to inflation
“The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 was the ultimate bait and switch for Pennsylvania families.”
Mike Kelly
Supports tax cuts and deregulation
Kelly advocates for pro-growth economic policies, including tax cuts for middle-income families and small businesses, alongside rolling back federal regulations. He supports making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing all tax increases.
- Supports simplifying the tax code and preserving small business tax cuts
- Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing net tax hikes
- Voted for H.R. 1 reconciliation and fiscal year budget resolutions
“We need common sense, pro-growth policies that remove barriers to economic growth.”
Healthcare
high salienceWagner advocates a single-payer Medicare for All system, whereas Kelly favors market-based approaches like expanding generic drug availability and repealing taxes on employer health plans.
Justin Wagner
Supports Medicare for All
Wagner advocates for universal healthcare through Medicare for All (H.R. 3069) to eliminate medical debt and surprise emergency bills. He supports capping out-of-pocket healthcare costs, protecting the Affordable Care Act, and allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices.
- Co-sponsors the Medicare for All Act (H.R. 3069)
- Supports capping out-of-pocket medical costs and banning surprise billing
- Opposes cuts to Medicaid and Medicare
“Medical debt is now the number-one cause of family bankruptcy in America.”
Mike Kelly
Favors market-based healthcare reforms
Kelly focuses on reducing healthcare costs through market-driven reforms, such as increasing access to generic drugs and eliminating taxes on employer health benefits. He led bipartisan efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act's 'Cadillac Tax.'
- Sponsored legislation to make low-cost generic drugs available
- Led efforts to delay and eliminate the ACA's Cadillac Tax on employer health plans
- Voted for key healthcare provisions in federal budget legislation
“Pursuing policies that lower health care costs will continue to be a priority for me if I am re-elected.”
Energy and environment
medium salienceWagner advocates strict environmental regulations and clean energy transition, while Kelly promotes an 'all-of-the-above' energy strategy emphasizing domestic fossil fuel production alongside renewables.
Justin Wagner
Supports clean energy transition
Wagner calls for aggressive federal action on climate change, strictly enforcing the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, and investing in clean energy jobs. He demands stricter penalties for corporate environmental polluters.
- Supports strengthening and enforcing the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts
- Advocates federal investment in clean energy jobs and emissions reduction
- Demands strict penalties for corporate environmental polluters
“Enforcement needs teeth. Polluters need consequences, not a slap on the wrist, leaving families and individuals to bear the consequences.”
Mike Kelly
Supports all-of-the-above energy
Kelly promotes an 'all-of-the-above' energy approach, advocating domestic production of coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear power, and renewable sources. He voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to expand domestic fossil fuel production.
- Supports domestic energy production using coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, solar, and wind
- Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to expand domestic energy production
- Opposes regulatory burdens on domestic energy developers
“Our energy policy should include an “all of the above” and “everything below” approach to addressing our current and future energy needs.”
Education
medium salienceWagner opposes school vouchers to preserve public school funding, while Kelly supports school choice and vouchers alongside local community control.
Justin Wagner
Opposes school vouchers
Wagner opposes school vouchers that divert public tax dollars to private schools. He advocates for fully funding public K-12 classrooms, Title I programs, special education, and Pell Grants for higher education and vocational training.
- Opposes school voucher programs that reduce funding for public schools
- Supports fully funding Title I, special education, and preschool programs
- Advocates protecting Pell Grant funding for colleges and technical schools
“I do not support school vouchers that take away from public school funding.”
Mike Kelly
Supports local control and choice
Kelly emphasizes local community control over education spending, accountability, expanding parental school choice, and increasing career and technical education programs alongside traditional colleges.
- Supports expanding parental school choice and educational options
- Advocates local community flexibility over educational spending
- Promotes career and technical education programs
“As a former school board member, I know first-hand that spending massive amounts of money on education does not always lead to positive results.”
Government reform and ethics
medium salienceWagner advocates structural government reforms like term limits and stock trading bans, whereas Kelly focuses reform efforts on curbing federal spending and bureaucracy.
Justin Wagner
Supports congressional term limits
Wagner has pledged to reform Washington by voting for congressional term limits, banning members from trading individual stocks, restricting lobbying, overturning Citizens United, and enforcing a Supreme Court code of ethics.
- Supports a 12-year term limit for Congress (6 House terms / 2 Senate terms)
- Pledges to vote to ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks
- Supports overturning Citizens United and enforcing Supreme Court ethics
“Public service should not be a lifelong career. I will vote to limit service to a maximum of 12 years total—6 terms in the House and 2 terms in the Senate.”
Mike Kelly
Favors spending limits and oversight
Kelly focuses government reform on reducing government size, limiting federal spending, ensuring constitutional limits on all three branches of government, and providing high-quality constituent services.
- Focuses on reducing government size and limiting federal spending
- Emphasizes strict adherence to constitutional limits on federal authority
- Highlights non-partisan recognition for outstanding congressional constituent service
“We need to reduce the size of government and limit our spending.”
Foreign policy and national defense
medium salienceWagner seeks to limit executive war powers and foreign military aid, whereas Kelly favors robust defense spending and foreign intelligence capabilities.
Justin Wagner
Opposes endless foreign conflicts
Wagner advocates reining in executive war powers and opposes U.S. entanglements abroad. He rejects foreign political PAC influence, opposes U.S. military aid to Israel's campaign in Gaza, and calls for an end to unauthorized military actions.
- Pledges to restrict unilateral executive war-making
- Rejects AIPAC contributions and opposes military funding for Israel's campaign in Gaza
- Supports restricting foreign intervention while assisting military veterans
“No more blank checks. No more unauthorized conflicts. No more pointless wars.”
Mike Kelly
Supports robust defense spending
Kelly advocates for strong military funding to ensure readiness against foreign enemies. He supports foreign intelligence collection tools for counterterrorism while maintaining civil liberty protections.
- Supports robust funding and equipment for U.S. armed forces
- Supports foreign intelligence counterterrorism tools with civil liberty protections
- Endorses strong national defense capabilities
“We need a strong military that is prepared to protect Americans from our enemies now and in the future.”
Immigration and border security
medium salienceWagner emphasizes constitutional due process and legal pathways to citizenship, whereas Kelly votes for strict enforcement, mandatory detention, and deportation measures.
Justin Wagner
Supports reform with due process
Wagner advocates securing borders while enforcing constitutional due process and legal pathways for immigrants. He supports earned citizenship pathways for DACA recipients and agricultural workers while opposing unmonitored enforcement practices.
- Supports strict independent oversight and due process in immigration enforcement
- Advocates earned citizenship pathways for DACA recipients and essential workers
- Opposes corporate exploitation of undocumented workers that depresses local wages
“As a combat veteran, I swore an oath to defend the Constitution. Watching masked agents act without accountability is beyond inhumane... it is a betrayal of the basic American legal principles we fought to protect.”
Mike Kelly
Supports strict border enforcement
Kelly supports strict border enforcement, voter citizenship verification, and mandatory detention for foreign nationals committing crimes. He voted for the SAVE Act, the Laken Riley Act, and DUI deportation legislation.
- Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote
- Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) mandating DHS detention for foreign nationals arrested for theft
- Voted for H.R. 875 making DUI grounds for deportation
Veterans affairs
low salienceWagner emphasizes expanding public VA mental healthcare and preventing VA privatization, whereas Kelly focuses on VA healthcare system improvements alongside private-sector job training opportunities.
Justin Wagner
Supports expanding VA resources
As a combat veteran, Wagner supports expanding mental healthcare funding, protecting veteran housing initiatives, and opposing efforts to privatize VA healthcare services.
- Supports expanding mental health funding and housing initiatives for veterans
- Opposes privatization of VA healthcare services
- Promotes veteran housing and transition programs
Mike Kelly
Supports VA healthcare improvements
Kelly supports improving the VA healthcare system, increasing job training and educational opportunities for veterans, and ensuring military veterans receive all earned federal benefits.
- Supports improvements to the VA healthcare system
- Advocates job training and educational opportunities for veterans
- Committed to securing earned benefits for military veterans
“In addition to making improvements to the VA healthcare system, I am also committed to serving our veterans by making sure that adequate job training and educational opportunities are available for them.”
Abortion and reproductive rights
medium salienceJustin Wagner
Supports federal abortion protections
Wagner strongly supports federal protections for abortion access and reproductive healthcare. He pledges to codify Roe v. Wade, pass the Right to Contraception Act, repeal the Comstock Act, and end the Hyde Amendment.
- Supports passing the Women's Health Protection Act to codify Roe v. Wade
- Co-sponsors the Right to Contraception Act
- Supports repealing the Comstock Act and ending the Hyde Amendment
“I will vote to pass the Women’s Health Protection Act, ensuring that reproductive freedom is the law of the land, regardless of who sits on the Supreme Court.”
Housing affordability
medium salienceJustin Wagner
Supports private equity ban
Wagner proposes restricting corporate ownership of residential real estate to lower housing costs. He supports legislation banning hedge funds and private equity firms from purchasing single-family homes and advocates expanding federal homebuyer programs.
- Supports banning hedge funds and private equity firms from buying single-family homes
- Sponsors the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act
- Supports expanding VA home loan programs
“Every family deserves the chance to put down roots. Housing should be achievable — not something reserved for investors and out-of-town money.”
Gun policy
medium salienceJustin Wagner
Supports background checks and safety
Wagner supports gun ownership rights for law-abiding citizens while advocating common-sense gun safety measures, including universal background checks, constitutional red flag laws with due process, and crackdowns on illegal firearm trafficking.
- Supports universal background checks for firearm sales
- Advocates constitutional red flag laws with judicial due process protections
- Supports crackdowns on straw purchases and illegal gun trafficking
“Law-abiding citizens have an absolute, unambiguous right to bear arms.”
Technology and data privacy
low salienceJustin Wagner
Supports AI and privacy regulations
Wagner advocates establishing an Independent Federal AI Safety Authority and national data privacy standards to protect workers and consumers from algorithmic manipulation and corporate price-fixing.
- Supports the American Privacy Rights Act (APRA) for national data privacy standards
- Supports the Preventing Algorithmic Collusion Act to stop AI price-fixing
- Advocates creating an Independent Federal AI Safety Authority
“Leaving this technology without guardrails is irresponsible at best.”
Social Security and Medicare
high salienceWagner wants to expand Social Security solvency by removing the payroll tax cap on high earners, while Kelly emphasizes protecting program solvency through broader economic and job growth.
Justin Wagner
Opposes cuts and privatization
Wagner opposes any efforts to cut Social Security or Medicare benefits, raise the retirement age, or privatize the programs. He proposes removing the taxable wage cap so wealthy individuals pay payroll taxes on all of their income to keep the trust funds solvent.
Mike Kelly
Protects benefits through growth
Kelly emphasizes preserving Social Security and Medicare for seniors by keeping the broader economy strong, arguing that wage taxes from working citizens sustain the trust funds. He also highlights legislative efforts to reduce prescription drug costs.