Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Pennsylvania Toss-up

Pennsylvania — 10th District

Portrait of Janelle Stelson

Democrat

Janelle Stelson

The 2026 general election for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District features a high-profile rematch between seven-term Republican incumbent Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson. After Perry narrowly defeated Stelson by 1.2 percentage points in 2024, major forecasters including Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the 2026 matchup as a Toss-up, while Decision Desk rates it Lean Democratic. The race hinges on cost-of-living concerns, reproductive rights, congressional ethics, border security, and Perry's conservative voting record in a district Donald Trump won by five points in 2024.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
78.5%
Republicans
20.5%
Kalshi ↗
Janelle Stelson
78.0%
Scott Perry
25.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of Living & Economy

high salience

Stelson favors raising the minimum wage and targeted middle-class tax relief, while Perry advocates for broad deregulation, tax cuts, and a Balanced Budget Amendment.

Democratic Janelle Stelson

Supports middle-class tax cuts and minimum wage increase

Stelson focuses on lowering everyday costs for food, gas, and necessities while opposing tariff policies that raise consumer prices. She advocates for raising Pennsylvania's $7.25 minimum wage, expanding vocational training, and offering tax breaks to working families instead of billionaires.

  • Proposes tax breaks for middle-class families while opposing tax breaks for billionaires and national sales taxes
  • Advocates raising Pennsylvania's minimum wage above $7.25 per hour
  • Expands vocational and technical education programs for non-college-degree trade jobs

“I support tax breaks for the hard working middle class, not billionaires.”

“The minimum wage of $7.25 in Pennsylvania is outrageous.”

Republican Scott Perry

Supports tax cuts, deregulation, and balanced budget

Perry advocates for reducing federal spending, cutting taxes on families and small businesses, and eliminating government regulations to stimulate private-sector job growth. Drawing on his experience as a former small business owner, he champions a Balanced Budget Amendment to reduce the national debt.

  • Supports a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution
  • Advocates lowering tax rates for working families and small businesses
  • Fights to reduce federal regulations that hinder business expansion

“As a former small business owner, Scott Perry understands that excessive taxes and over-regulation prevent small businesses from creating jobs and prospering.”

02

Health Care

high salience

Stelson supports federal negotiation of prescription drug prices and expanding care access, whereas Perry opposes the ACA and single-payer healthcare, favoring market reforms like HSAs and cross-state plan purchasing.

Democratic Janelle Stelson

Supports prescription drug price negotiation and patient protections

Stelson supports federal negotiation of prescription drug prices, banning surprise medical bills, and removing medical debt from credit reports. She criticizes Perry for opposing health cost reductions and voting against expanded local care access.

  • Empowers government negotiation to lower prescription drug costs
  • Bans surprise billing and closes ambulance billing loopholes
  • Proposes removing medical debt from individual credit reports

“I support lowering the price of prescription drugs by allowing the government to negotiate prices.”

“that’s why I believe medical debt should be taken off credit reports.”

Republican Scott Perry

Opposes ACA and government-run health care

Perry opposes government-run healthcare systems and single-payer models like Medicare for All, arguing the ACA failed to reduce costs. He supports market reforms including pre-existing condition protections, expanded Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), and cross-state insurance sales.

  • Opposes single-payer Medicare for All and government-run healthcare systems
  • Supports coverage protections for pre-existing medical conditions
  • Advocates expanding Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and cross-state insurance sales

“The Affordable Care Act (ACA) was supposed to reduce healthcare costs and provide greater healthcare options. It failed – spectacularly.”

03

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

high salience

Stelson advocates codifying federal abortion protections under Roe v. Wade, while Perry supports strict pro-life protections with limited exceptions.

Democratic Janelle Stelson

Supports codifying federal abortion rights under Roe

Stelson pledges to restore the federal protections guaranteed under Roe v. Wade and protect access to fertility treatments like IVF. She opposes political interference in private health decisions and criticizes Perry's past sponsorship of abortion restrictions.

  • Pledges to codify Roe v. Wade protections into federal law
  • Protects legal access to in vitro fertilization (IVF)
  • Opposes federal abortion bans and restrictions on women's healthcare choices

“In Congress, I will fight to ensure the protections guaranteed under Roe are once again the law of the land.”

Republican Scott Perry

Supports abortion restrictions with narrow exceptions

Perry maintains a pro-life platform rooted in the sanctity of life, supporting exceptions only for rape, incest, and saving the life of the mother. He opposes taxpayer-funded, late-term, and partial-birth abortions, while supporting parental consent laws and defunding Planned Parenthood.

  • Supports anti-abortion protections with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother
  • Opposes taxpayer funding for abortions, late-term abortions, and partial-birth procedures
  • Advocates defunding Planned Parenthood and redirecting funds to local health clinics

“Scott Perry believes firmly in the sanctity of Life – period. He makes exceptions for circumstances that involve rape, incest, and danger to the life of the mother.”

04

Immigration & Border Security

high salience

Stelson emphasizes targeted deportations of violent criminals alongside ICE transparency and technology funding, while Perry focuses on total border closure, deporting all illegal immigrants, and banning sanctuary cities.

Democratic Janelle Stelson

Supports border enforcement and targeted deportations

Stelson opposes open borders, advocating for increased funding for border technology and law enforcement agents to curb drug trafficking. She believes deportations should target violent criminals and calls for strict due process, independent investigations into ICE shootings, and mandatory unmasked uniforms with badges for federal agents.

  • Opposes open borders and focuses deportations on violent criminal offenders
  • Requires ICE and federal border law enforcement to wear unmasked uniforms with visible badges
  • Invests in border monitoring technology to intercept illicit drug trafficking

“Deportations should focus on those who have committed violent crimes and that is clearly not what is happening right now.”

“All federal law enforcement including ICE should wear uniforms with badges and should not wear masks.”

Republican Scott Perry

Supports strict border enforcement and deportations

Perry advocates for aggressive border security measures to stop illegal entries, national security threats, and drug trafficking. His platform includes deporting undocumented felons, drug dealers, and terrorists, banning sanctuary cities, and fully resourcing Border Patrol agents.

  • Secures southern border and provides full operational resources to Border Patrol agents
  • Deports illegal immigrants who are violent criminals, drug dealers, or terrorists
  • Enacts federal prohibitions against sanctuary cities

“Under Biden, over 5 million illegals have flooded into our Country and communities – many of whom are drug dealers, human traffickers, and violent criminals.”

05

Government Reform & Ethics

medium salience

Stelson calls for a mandatory 12-year term limit for House members and bans on congressional stock trading, while Perry signed a term limits pledge and supports 'No Budget, No Pay' legislation.

Democratic Janelle Stelson

Supports term limits and congressional stock trading bans

Stelson campaigns on an anti-corruption agenda that includes a constitutional amendment limiting House members to six terms (12 years). She supports banning stock trading by lawmakers and their spouses, as well as prohibiting retired members of Congress from becoming lobbyists.

  • Supports a 12-year (6-term) limit for U.S. House members and pledges to self-limit
  • Bans members of Congress and their spouses from trading individual stocks
  • Prohibits former members of Congress from working as high-paid lobbyists

“I also support a constitutional amendment that prohibits all members of the U.S. House from serving more than six terms (12 years).”

Republican Scott Perry

Signed term limits pledge and supports spending transparency

Perry signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge and champions government accountability initiatives such as 'No Budget, No Pay' legislation. He has sponsored measures to open federal checkbooks to public scrutiny and stop congressional pay raises.

  • Signed the official U.S. Term Limits Pledge
  • Co-sponsored 'No Budget, No Pay' legislation withholding congressional salaries if budgets are not passed
  • Sponsored transparency measures to expose federal government spending details

“If Members are unable to carry out one of their basic duties of governing, then they shouldn’t get paid.”

06

Veterans

medium salience

Stelson emphasizes expanding federal housing and healthcare programs for veterans, while Perry focuses on reforming VA accountability and offering private care choices.

Democratic Janelle Stelson

Supports expanding VA healthcare and homeless housing

Stelson supports expanding health benefits, job training, and continuing education programs for military veterans. She repeatedly attacks Perry for voting against federal expansions of VA healthcare benefits and homeless veteran housing programs.

  • Expands access to health benefits, education, and job training for returning veterans
  • Supports federal funding to house homeless military veterans
  • Criticizes Perry's vote against major VA healthcare expansion legislation

“Every member of Congress from Pennsylvania EXCEPT Scott Perry voted to help house homeless veterans.”

Republican Scott Perry

Supports VA reform and healthcare choices for veterans

Drawing on nearly 40 years of military service as a Brigadier General, Perry supports reforming the Veterans Administration to increase accountability. He advocates expanding private healthcare options, cutting-edge PTSD treatments, and educational benefits for service members.

  • Reforms the Veterans Administration for greater institutional accountability
  • Expands private healthcare choices and cutting-edge PTSD treatment options
  • Enhances education benefits for military veterans and families

“As a Combat Veteran who served for nearly 40 years in uniform, Scott Perry knows and understands firsthand the sacrifices made by Veterans and their families to protect our safety, security, freedom, and liberty.”

07

Agriculture & Rural Communities

medium salience

Stelson advocates for right-to-repair laws and breaking up meatpacking monopolies, whereas Perry focuses on reducing federal regulatory burdens on farmers.

Democratic Janelle Stelson

Supports Farm Bill passage and right-to-repair laws

Stelson prioritizes passing a 5-year Farm Bill to lower input costs and support family farms. Her platform includes breaking up meatpacking monopolies, providing avian flu relief, and enacting right-to-repair laws so farmers can fix their own machinery.

  • Prioritizes passing a updated 5-year Farm Bill to stabilize agricultural policy
  • Enacts right-to-repair legislation granting access to farm equipment diagnostics and parts
  • Supports antitrust action to break up market consolidation in chicken processing

“Additionally I will advocate for legislation to give farmers the right to repair their own equipment and ensure they have the manuals, diagnostics and parts to do so.”

Republican Scott Perry

Supports reducing agricultural regulations

Perry highlights agriculture as a crucial regional industry and works to eliminate federal regulatory burdens that restrict farm operations. Drawing on his childhood work on local farms, he supports policies that empower family-owned agribusinesses.

  • Reduces federal regulations hindering agricultural production and farm families
  • Supports Central Pennsylvania agribusinesses and farm stewards

“He’s worked with the agricultural community to reduce unnecessary and crippling federal regulations that impede their ability to farm.”

08

Education & Title IX

medium salience

Stelson focuses on increasing funding and compensation for public school educators, while Perry focuses on restricting transgender participation in women's sports under Title IX.

Democratic Janelle Stelson

Supports public education and teacher compensation

Coming from a family of public school educators, Stelson advocates for increasing pay and respect for teachers, bus drivers, and school support personnel. She views public schools as essential community foundations.

  • Prioritizes funding for public education systems
  • Advocates higher pay and professional respect for teachers and school support staff

“Schools are the bedrock of our communities and the foundation of America.”

Republican Scott Perry

Opposes male participation in women's sports under Title IX

Perry focuses his education policy on protecting Title IX protections for female athletics, opposing policies that permit transgender women to compete in female sports categories. He argues that allowing biological males in women's sports undermines female opportunities and physical safety.

  • Opposes allowing biological males who self-identify as female to compete in women's sports
  • Defends Title IX civil rights protections for female athletics

“As the father of two daughters, Scott opposes any attempt to allow males to compete against females in women’s sports.”

09

Housing Affordability

medium salience

Democratic Janelle Stelson

Supports construction incentives and corporate buyer restrictions

Stelson proposed a comprehensive plan to lower homeownership costs by incentivizing new housing construction, cutting regulatory red tape for builders, and restricting Wall Street investors from buying up local residential inventory. She criticizes Perry for being the sole Pennsylvania House member to vote against a bipartisan housing affordability bill.

  • Incentivizes residential construction and modernizes outdated building regulations
  • Cuts permitting red tape that slows housing development
  • Reins in corporate Wall Street investors purchasing single-family housing inventory

“When it came time to actually vote on lowering housing costs, our Congressman Scott Perry was the only member of Pennsylvania’s Congressional delegation — Republican or Democrat — to vote no.”

Republican Scott Perry No documented position in our sources
10

Energy & Environment

medium salience
Democratic Janelle Stelson No documented position in our sources

Republican Scott Perry

Supports domestic energy independence and natural gas

Perry advocates for domestic energy independence through a blended energy portfolio incorporating Pennsylvania natural gas, nuclear power, hydroelectricity, and clean technologies. He criticizes Biden-Harris energy policies for crippling the economy and increasing energy costs.

  • Promotes Pennsylvania natural gas reserves, nuclear power, and hydroelectric energy
  • Supports a blended energy portfolio incorporating clean energy technology
  • Opposes restrictive federal energy policies to lower fuel inflation

“Pennsylvania plays a critical role in returning America to energy independence by supporting our vast natural gas reserves and harnessing hydroelectric and nuclear power.”

11

Second Amendment

medium salience
Democratic Janelle Stelson No documented position in our sources

Republican Scott Perry

Supports Second Amendment gun rights

Perry is a staunch supporter of the Second Amendment, opposing federal measures that restrict gun ownership. He pledges to remain vigilant against any legislative efforts that erode constitutional self-defense rights.

  • Defends constitutional Second Amendment rights against federal restrictions
  • Opposes legislative limits on individual firearm ownership and civil liberties

“Scott Perry remains a staunch advocate of our Constitution’s Second Amendment, and the rights of all Americans to protect themselves and their families.”

12

Transportation & Infrastructure

low salience
Democratic Janelle Stelson No documented position in our sources

Republican Scott Perry

Supports federal infrastructure investment

As a member of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, Perry supports federal bills to modernize roads, bridges, airports, and seaports. He views infrastructure maintenance as a core function of government to support commerce.

  • Supports federal funding for roads, bridges, airports, and seaports
  • Serves on the House Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure

“One of the core functions of government is to maintain a safe, secure, and efficient transportation infrastructure system that supports interstate commerce and strengthens America’s competitive edge in the global economy.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

PA-10 House Election Winner

78.5% Democrats
20.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 78.5REPUBLICANS 20.5

Kalshi ↗

PA-10 House winner?

78.0% Janelle Stelson
25.0% Scott Perry
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16STELSON 78.0PERRY 25.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.