2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Pennsylvania Toss-up
Pennsylvania — 8th District
The general election for Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District features freshman Republican incumbent Rep. Rob Bresnahan Jr. facing Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, a Democrat. Major election handicappers—including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ—rate the matchup as a Toss-up. The race hinges on ethics and government reform, economic relief and cost of living, border security, and local governance, with Democrats highlighting Bresnahan's stock trading record and Republicans targeting Cognetti's mayoral tenure in Scranton.
The pulse
updated Sep 16Government Reform & Ethics
high salienceCognetti makes banning congressional stock trading a central pillar of her anti-corruption platform, while Bresnahan executed 650 stock trades during his congressional term despite stating support for a ban.
Democratic Paige Cognetti
Supports ethics reform and stock ban
Cognetti centers her campaign on an anti-corruption agenda aimed at eliminating special interest influence in Washington. She advocates banning congressional stock trading, rejecting corporate PAC money, and conducting scalpel-focused audits of federal government spending.
- Propose a ban on congressional stock trading
- Reject corporate PAC contributions
- Audit the federal government to reduce waste, fraud, and abuse
“We are tired of Washington politicians enriching themselves while selling us out. Members of Congress have created a system where the rules apply to the rest of us, but not to them. We all know that's wrong and I'm running to change it.”
Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr.
Supports term limits and judicial limits
Bresnahan pledged support for a ban on congressional stock trading and signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge. However, media reports note he executed hundreds of stock transactions during his first year in office, drawing intense criticism from opponents.
- Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge
- Voted for H.R. 4405 (Epstein Files Transparency Act)
- Voted for H.R. 1526 (NORRA of 2025) to limit universal injunctions by federal district courts
- Executed 650 stock trades between January 2025 and February 2026 despite backing a stock trading ban
Economy & Cost of Living
high salienceCognetti focuses on capping credit card fees and breaking up monopolies to reduce everyday costs, whereas Bresnahan advocates for tax cuts, reduced government spending, and deregulation.
Democratic Paige Cognetti
Supports capping fees and anti-monopoly measures
Cognetti advocates for working family relief by capping credit card fees, stopping hidden fees, and promoting competition against big box monopolies. She supports targeted manufacturing tariffs, union strengthening, and expanding paid family leave and affordable childcare.
- Break up big box monopolies to protect small local businesses
- Cap credit card fees and combat junk fees shrinking family budgets
- Implement smart, targeted tariffs to protect local manufacturing while opposing broad tariffs that raise consumer costs
- Strengthen labor unions and enact paid family leave and affordable childcare
“Nobody works harder than the people of NEPA, and they deserve a government that works as hard as they do.”
Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr.
Supports tax cuts and reduced spending
Bresnahan emphasizes his experience running a union electrical contracting business to promote free-market job growth. He calls for cutting taxes, reining in federal spending, and lowering inflation to assist struggling local families.
- Cut federal spending and lower taxes to combat inflation
- Promote commonsense policies to unleash the business sector and create family-sustaining jobs
- Voted for H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) covering tax policy and budget reconciliation
- Voted for H.Con.Res. 14 establishing the congressional budget framework
“Northeastern PA families are hurting in the Biden/Harris economy. We need to stop the reckless spending, get inflation under control, and cut taxes so you can keep more of the money you earn for your family.”
“As a small business owner, I know what it takes to create good, family-sustaining jobs. I will vote for commonsense policies that unleash the American economy and get Pennsylvania back to work.”
Public Safety & Law Enforcement
medium salienceBresnahan emphasizes increased federal funding and law enforcement backing to combat fentanyl, while Cognetti highlights municipal safety investments and recorded declines in local crime during her mayoral tenure.
Democratic Paige Cognetti
Supports municipal safety and law enforcement
Cognetti points to her administrative track record as mayor of Scranton, noting local reductions in violent crime during her term. Her campaign platform highlights investing in safe municipal infrastructure and local community needs.
- Oversee local municipal public safety initiatives as mayor of Scranton
- Highlighted independent local reporting showing violent crime declined in Scranton during her tenure
Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr.
Supports police funding and anti-fentanyl measures
Bresnahan promises steadfast support for law enforcement and ensuring officers have necessary resources to combat violent crime and the fentanyl crisis. He highlights personal financial contributions to local police departments and endorsements from major police organizations.
- Provide federal resources to law enforcement to combat the fentanyl crisis
- Endorsed by the Pennsylvania State Troopers Association
- Promote private and public support for local law enforcement agencies
“I will always stand with law enforcement and ensure they have the resources to combat the fentanyl crisis and keep our community safe.”
Healthcare & Social Security
medium salienceCognetti focuses on regulating insurance middlemen and expanding small business marketplace access, while Bresnahan focuses on protecting Social Security and Medicare without benefit cuts or retirement age increases.
Democratic Paige Cognetti
Supports healthcare reform and market access
Cognetti advocates reforming health insurance systems and preventing insurance middlemen from denying doctor-prescribed treatment. She supports expanding access to healthcare marketplaces for small business employees.
- Prevent healthcare industry middlemen from denying care and medications prescribed by doctors
- Expand healthcare marketplace access so small business workers can maintain coverage
- Reform health and flood insurance systems to protect consumers when disasters occur
- Endorsed by the Pennsylvania Association of Staff Nurses and Allied Professionals
Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr.
Opposes benefit cuts or retirement age increases
Bresnahan pledges to safeguard Social Security and Medicare as earned benefits, committing to vote against raising the retirement age or cutting program funding.
- Protect Social Security and Medicare for future generations without benefit cuts
- Oppose raising the statutory retirement age for Social Security benefits
“I will always fight to protect Social Security & Medicare for future generations. It’s your money, you paid into the system, and the government needs to keep its promise to every American. I will not support raising the retirement age or any benefit cuts to these programs.”
Infrastructure & Permitting
medium salienceBoth candidates advocate cutting red tape to advance infrastructure, but Bresnahan emphasizes his seat on the House Transportation Committee while Cognetti focuses on specific regional projects like passenger rail and defense manufacturing.
Democratic Paige Cognetti
Supports streamlined permitting and regional projects
Cognetti advocates cutting red tape and reforming permitting to expedite regional infrastructure projects. She supports reshoring defense manufacturing and advancing local transit, bridges, and passenger rail.
- Streamline permitting processes to accelerate infrastructure construction
- Expand regional transit including passenger rail, bridges, and safe streets
- Reshore manufacturing jobs and expand defense manufacturing in Northeastern Pennsylvania
“Cut red tape, make permitting make sense, allow more businesses to start, grow and thrive. Move faster on infrastructure projects we need for our economic future, from safe streets to bridges to passenger rail.”
Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr.
Supports cutting red tape and targeted infrastructure
Bresnahan highlights his committee assignments on Transportation and Infrastructure to argue he is positioned to deliver federal investments to his home district while cutting regulatory red tape.
- Serves on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee (Subcommittees: Highways and Transit, Aviation, Economic Development)
- Promote regulatory reform to deliver hometown infrastructure projects
Border Security & Immigration
high salienceRepublican Rob Bresnahan Jr.
Supports border wall and strict enforcement
Bresnahan supports constructing a southern border wall and reversing Biden-era border policies to stop illegal immigration and drug trafficking. In Congress, he voted for immigration enforcement measures including mandatory citizenship proof for voter registration and detaining noncitizens charged with theft or DUIs.
- Build the border wall and stop the flow of illegal drugs into local communities
- Voted for S. 5 (Laken Riley Act) to detain noncitizens arrested for burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting
- Voted for H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) requiring proof of citizenship to register for federal elections
- Voted for H.R. 875 making driving while impaired grounds for deportation or inadmissibility
“We must secure the border, build the wall, and reverse the Biden/Harris failed policies to stop the flow of illegal drugs and criminals into our communities.”
Prediction markets 2
updated Sep 16Polymarket ↗
PA-08 House Election Winner
Kalshi ↗
PA-08 House winner?
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