Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Pennsylvania Lean R

Pennsylvania’s 1st District race

Portrait of Brian Fitzpatrick

Republican

Brian Fitzpatrick

The general election for Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District features four-term Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick against Democratic Bucks County Commissioner and former high school teacher Bob Harvie. The race hinges on Harvie's attempt to brand Fitzpatrick as a Washington insider beholden to corporate PACs against Fitzpatrick's established brand as the House's most bipartisan Republican backed by major labor unions.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
56.0%
Republicans
43.0%
Kalshi ↗
Bob Harvie
56.0%
Brian Fitzpatrick
45.0%

All markets →

01

Government Reform & Ethics

high salience

Harvie emphasizes banning corporate PAC dollars, banning congressional stock trading, and enforcing an age limit of 80, whereas Fitzpatrick focuses on congressional term limits, eliminating member pensions, and requiring citizen proof for voter registration.

Democratic Bob Harvie

Supports campaign finance limits and ethics bans

Harvie makes cleaning up Washington corruption the centerpiece of his platform, pledging not to accept corporate PAC contributions. He advocates for constitutional amendments to overturn Citizens United, a complete ban on stock trading for members of Congress and federal officials, an age limit of 80 for federal elected officials, a lifetime lobbying ban for former lawmakers, and independent redistricting commissions to end partisan gerrymandering.

  • Pledged not to accept any corporate PAC donations
  • Supports banning stock trading for members of Congress, federal judges, and Executive Branch officials
  • Proposes a lifetime lobbying ban for former members of Congress
  • Supports a congressional age limit of 80 years old
  • Advocates independent redistricting commissions to ban partisan gerrymandering

“I have pledged not to take a dime of corporate PAC money.”

“I’ll support a complete ban on congressional stock trading because Americans deserve to know their representatives are working for them, not their investment portfolios.”

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick

Supports congressional term limits and institutional reforms

Fitzpatrick highlights his background as an FBI agent who prosecuted political corruption and emphasizes his position as Chairman of the Bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. His government reform package includes proposals for congressional term limits, abolishing congressional pensions, 'No Budget, No Pay' laws, single-issue voting, zero-based budgeting, and a Balanced Budget Amendment. In Congress, he voted for voter ID/citizenship verification under the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) and voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405).

  • Proposes constitutional term limits for all members of Congress
  • Authored 'No Budget, No Pay' legislation and returned his pay during government shutdowns
  • Supports abolishing congressional pensions and enacting zero-based budgeting
  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote
  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405)

“Supports term limits for all Members of Congress.”

“In order to truly fix the system, we must build bridges, restore people’s faith in the system, and bring America together.”

02

Taxes & Economic Policy

high salience

Harvie advocates raising corporate tax rates, rolling back tariffs, and enacting a $15 federal minimum wage, while Fitzpatrick favors tax simplification, manufacturing incentives, and targeted tax relief.

Democratic Bob Harvie

Supports middle-class tax cuts and minimum wage increase

Harvie proposes middle-class tax relief financed by raising effective tax rates on large corporations and the ultra-wealthy. He advocates rolling back broad trade tariffs that increase checkout prices on household goods and calls for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour.

  • Proposes middle-class tax cuts funded by higher taxes on corporations and high earners
  • Calls for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour
  • Supports rolling back former President Trump's trade tariffs on consumer goods

“I’ll fight for a middle class tax cut while ensuring large corporations and the ultra-wealthy pay their fair share so middle class Americans get a much needed tax cut.”

“I believe we need to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour.”

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick

Supports tax simplification and manufacturing growth

Fitzpatrick supports a simplified tax code that incentivizes domestic manufacturing and small business investment. In the 118th Congress, he voted for the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024) and the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 (H.R. 2811), though he voted Nay on the 2025 budget reconciliation bill (H.R. 1).

  • Voted Yea on the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024)
  • Supports reforming trade deals to protect American workers and manufacturers
  • Supported reducing regulatory burdens on local small businesses
  • Voted Nay on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1) reconciliation bill in 2025

“Supported a simpler, fairer tax code.”

“Supports policies that put American manufacturing at the forefront of our economy, as it creates family sustaining careers and true wealth for our nation.”

03

Healthcare & Prescription Drug Costs

high salience

Harvie supports lowering the Medicare buy-in age to 55 and expanding Medicare prescription drug price negotiations, whereas Fitzpatrick focuses on Right to Try laws, tort reform, and defending Medicare Advantage.

Democratic Bob Harvie

Supports lowering Medicare buy-in age and drug negotiation

Harvie believes healthcare is a human right and proposes lowering the Medicare buy-in age from 65 to 55. He vows to permanently expand Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, expand Medicare's authority to negotiate prescription drug prices, and cap insulin costs.

  • Proposes lowering the Medicare buy-in age from 65 to 55
  • Supports permanently extending and expanding ACA premium tax credits
  • Advocates expanding Medicare authority to negotiate prescription drug prices
  • Supports capping insulin costs for all patients

“I believe we need to lower the age that Americans can buy into Medicare from 65 to 55.”

“Unlike Brian Fitzpatrick, who voted against lowering the cost of prescription medications for seniors, I’ll expand Medicare’s authority to negotiate prescription drug prices, cap insulin costs, and take on pharmaceutical companies that put profits ahead of patients.”

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick

Supports market healthcare reform, Right to Try, and Medicare Advantage

Fitzpatrick supports reforming healthcare through market solutions, tort reform, and expanded access. He authored the federal 'Right to Try' legislation for terminally ill patients, supported doubling NIH funding for women's health research, voted to repeal Obamacare's Independent Payment Advisory Board, and voted Yea on the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 (H.R. 82).

  • Authored federal 'Right to Try' legislation signed into law for terminally ill patients
  • Supported doubling National Institutes of Health women's health funding
  • Voted to repeal the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) established by the ACA
  • Defends Medicare Advantage options for senior citizens
  • Voted Yea on the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 (H.R. 82)

“Author of RIGHT TO TRY legislation like that supported by the President in the State of the Union, that would give those suffering from a terminal disease the chance to try potentially lifesaving treatments.”

“Every man, woman, and child should have affordable health insurance.”

04

Energy, Climate & Data Center Development

medium salience

Harvie proposes a local moratorium on data centers and federal clean energy expansion, while Fitzpatrick relies on market-oriented environmental policy endorsed by EDF Action and CRES.

Democratic Bob Harvie

Supports clean energy investments and data center moratorium

Harvie prioritizes investments in clean energy, modernizing the electric grid, and green transit infrastructure to lower utility costs and create union jobs. He calls for an immediate moratorium on local data center development, criticizing federal tax breaks and preemption laws that prevent local regulation.

  • Calls for an immediate local moratorium on new data center developments
  • Supports expanding federal clean energy incentives and grid modernization
  • Criticizes H.R. 1 (2025 reconciliation) for cutting solar and clean energy tax credits

“That’s why I’m calling for a moratorium on new data center development in our community.”

“I’ll fight to expand clean energy, modernize our electric grid, and build resilient roads, bridges, and public transit systems that keep our economy moving.”

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick

Supports bipartisan clean energy and environmental conservation

Fitzpatrick positions himself as a environmental leader within the Republican party, securing endorsements from Environmental Defense Fund Action and Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions (CRES). He supported energy project review streamlining in the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 and voted Nay on the House Republican Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1 in the 118th Congress).

  • Endorsed by Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) Action and Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions (CRES)
  • Voted Nay on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1 in the 118th Congress)
  • Supported energy permitting simplification in the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023
  • Secured federal funding for local water safety and infrastructure projects
05

Labor & Union Rights

medium salience

Harvie calls for structural economic policies like a $15 minimum wage to support working families, while Fitzpatrick holds major pro-labor endorsements including the AFL-CIO, SEIU, and Teamsters.

Democratic Bob Harvie

Supports union jobs and middle-class working families

Harvie frames his entire campaign platform ('New Fair Deal for Working Families') around restoring economic opportunity for the working class. He emphasizes creating union jobs through clean energy and infrastructure projects and raising the federal minimum wage.

  • Focuses campaign on 'New Fair Deal for Working Families'
  • Supports union jobs created through infrastructure and green energy manufacturing
  • Advocates raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour

“A New Fair Deal for Working Families is my commitment to restoring it.”

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick

Pro-worker Republican backed by major labor unions

Fitzpatrick has established a unique record as a pro-labor Republican, receiving the historic national endorsement of the AFL-CIO as its sole Republican federal candidate endorsement nationwide in 2026. He is also endorsed by the SEIU Pennsylvania State Council, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, and the Pennsylvania Association of Staff Nurses and Allied Professionals (PASNAP).

  • Received the AFL-CIO's only federal endorsement given to a Republican in the nation in 2026
  • Endorsed by the SEIU Pennsylvania State Council (representing tens of thousands of workers)
  • Endorsed by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and PASNAP

“Today, in a historic national vote of confidence, the AFL-CIO endorsed Brian Fitzpatrick for re-election, making him the only Republican candidate for federal office anywhere in America to earn the federation’s endorsement.”

06

Education & Student Debt

low salience

Harvie focuses on his 26-year public high school teaching career and addressing student debt, while Fitzpatrick highlights vocational apprenticeships, NEA backing, and voting for sex restrictions in school sports.

Democratic Bob Harvie

Former teacher focused on student debt and vocational education

Drawing on his 26-year career as a public high school Social Studies teacher at Bucks County Technical High School, Harvie emphasizes that crushing student loan debt delays young adults from buying homes and starting adult lives.

  • Spent 26 years as a public technical high school teacher in Bucks County
  • Identifies crushing student debt as a major barrier for young adults

“I spent 26 years as a public school Social Studies teacher at Bucks County Technical High School teaching the next generation about our American story and the promise of the American Dream.”

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick

Supports vocational training, college affordability, and female sports protection

Fitzpatrick supports vocational education, apprenticeships, college debt reduction initiatives, and interest-free loans. He earned the endorsement of the National Education Association (NEA). In 2025, he voted Yea on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act (H.R. 28) prohibiting biological males from competing in female sports programs.

  • Endorsed by the National Education Association (NEA)
  • Promotes vocational education, apprenticeships, and interest-free student loans
  • Voted Yea on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28)

“A leader in the fight for vocational education & apprenticeships to prepare workers right here at home for the careers of the future.”

07

Consumer Protection & Inflation

medium salience

Democratic Bob Harvie

Supports banning AI price manipulation and price gouging

Harvie promises to crack down on corporate price gouging on essential household goods and groceries. He explicitly proposes banning artificial intelligence surveillance pricing algorithms used by corporations to adjust prices based on individual personal data.

  • Proposes federal bans on AI-driven surveillance pricing for grocery store items and essential goods
  • Supports expanding federal enforcement authorities against corporate price gouging

“I will ban AI-driven surveillance pricing on essential goods like groceries and strengthen federal enforcement against corporate price gouging so families know they’re paying a fair price.”

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick No documented position in our sources
08

Immigration & Border Security

medium salience
Democratic Bob Harvie No documented position in our sources

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick

Supports physical border barriers, law enforcement tools, and legal verification

Fitzpatrick advocates strengthening border security through physical barriers, aerial surveillance, National Guard task forces, and strict enforcement against illegal immigration offenders. In the 119th Congress, he voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) and the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025 (H.R. 875), and previously authored the INTERDICT Act to intercept illegal fentanyl.

  • Authored the INTERDICT Act signed into law to equip customs agents with detection tools against illegal fentanyl
  • Supports border physical barriers, enhanced aerial surveillance, and National Guard Task Forces
  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring detention of noncitizens arrested for theft or burglary
  • Voted Yea on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2)
  • Voted Yea on the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025 (H.R. 875)

“Securing the border through a physical barrier, aerial surveillance, enhanced human intelligence program, and the formation of a Federal agent / National Guard Task Force.”

“Author of the INTERDICT Act signed into law by the President, providing greater resources to law enforcement to stop the flow of deadly fentanyl from Mexico into communities such as our own.”

09

Law Enforcement, Crime & Public Safety

medium salience
Democratic Bob Harvie No documented position in our sources

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick

Supports law enforcement tools, penalties for targeting police, and anti-addiction programs

Leveraging his background as a former FBI Special Agent and Federal Prosecutor, Fitzpatrick highlights his work supporting police and battling the opioid crisis as Vice Chair of the Bipartisan Heroin Task Force. He supports increased penalties for crimes against first responders and expanded benefits for surviving children of fallen officers, earning endorsements from law enforcement organizations.

  • Endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) and PA Professional Fire Fighters Association
  • Serves as Vice Chair of the Bipartisan Heroin Task Force
  • Supports tougher criminal sentences for individuals targeting first responders
  • Proposes expanded education and healthcare benefits for children of fallen officers

“Protecting those who protect us by supporting tougher penalties for those who target our first responders and proposing expanded benefits for the children of our heroic fallen law enforcement officers.”

10

Gun Safety

medium salience
Democratic Bob Harvie No documented position in our sources

Republican Brian Fitzpatrick

Supports gun safety legislation

Fitzpatrick maintains a moderate stance on gun safety policies that breaks from standard Republican party lines, receiving prominent endorsements from major national gun violence prevention organizations.

  • Endorsed by Everytown for Gun Safety
  • Endorsed by Gabby Giffords / Giffords PAC
  • Endorsed by Brady PAC

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

PA-01 House Election Winner

56.0% Democrats
43.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 56.0REPUBLICANS 43.0

Kalshi ↗

PA-01 House winner?

56.0% Bob Harvie
45.0% Brian Fitzpatrick
255075100AUG 1AUG 25SEP 17OCT 10OCT 31HARVIE 56.0FITZPATRICK 45.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.