Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Ohio Toss-up

Ohio — 9th District

Ohio's 9th Congressional District matchup features 43-year Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur against former Republican State Representative Derek Merrin in a rematch of their tight 2024 contest. Following October 2025 redistricting, the district boundaries shifted to favor Republicans, with Donald Trump carrying the redrawn district by 10.6 percentage points in 2024. The race hinges on cost-of-living concerns, border security, entitlement protections, and the contrast between Kaptur's long congressional seniority and Merrin's conservative state legislative record. Forecasters rate the election between Toss-up, Lean Democratic, and Tilt Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
73.5%
Republicans
25.5%
Kalshi ↗
Marcy Kaptur
70.0%
Derek Merrin
32.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Kaptur advocates for tariffs, trade protectionism, and ending tax breaks for job outsourcers, whereas Merrin focuses on broad tax cuts, deregulation, and a federal balanced budget amendment.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur

Supports fair trade, tariffs, and tax fairness

Kaptur prioritizes protecting Midwest manufacturing jobs by opposing trade agreements like NAFTA, CAFTA, and China PNTR. She advocates taking away tax breaks from corporations that outsource jobs, enforcing protective tariffs, and lowering consumer costs for healthcare and groceries. She also supports technical job training programs that do not require a four-year college degree.

  • Fights to eliminate tax breaks for companies shipping jobs to China and Mexico
  • Supports protective tariffs for Ohio-based factories and manufacturers
  • Opposed free-trade agreements including NAFTA, CAFTA, and China PNTR
  • Secured funding for local job training and technical skills programs

“Marcy isn’t afraid to stand up to Democrats in Congress to defend Ohio. She is fighting to bring jobs home, take away tax breaks from companies that ship jobs overseas, and for tariffs that protect Ohio-based factories and companies.”

Republican Derek Merrin

Supports tax cuts, deregulation, and balanced budget

Merrin focuses on curbing inflation by demanding federal fiscal discipline and capping spending. In the Ohio House, he led efforts to reduce income taxes, streamline regulations, and enact tax relief for businesses and property owners. He supports a federal constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget.

  • Supports a constitutional amendment requiring a federal balanced budget
  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge
  • Led efforts in the Ohio legislature to cut state income tax rates
  • Repealed state sales tax on prescription eyewear and tax on small business investment companies

“The Biden/Kaptur economic policies are crushing Northwest Ohio families. Kaptur and Biden have instituted a tax-and-spend agenda that has resulted in inflation, outrageous costs at the grocery store, and put future generations of Northwest Ohioans on the hook for a skyrocketing national debt.”

“I support a constitutional amendment to require a balanced budget; America should only spend within our means. We must address the high cost of living, reduce Northwest Ohio’s tax burden, and bring American jobs back to America.”

02

Immigration and border security

high salience

Kaptur supports bipartisan border security legislation, hiring agents, and technology, while Merrin supports finishing the border wall, military border deployment, and mass deportations.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur

Supports increased border agents and bipartisan reform

Kaptur advocates for strong border security measures paired with orderly legal immigration pathways. She has voted to fund over 10,000 additional border patrol agents, deploy advanced surveillance technology, permit military support at the border when necessary, and penalize fentanyl traffickers.

  • Voted to expand border security and hire more than 10,000 border patrol agents
  • Supported authorization of military presence at the southern border if needed
  • Supported the 2024 bipartisan Senate border security agreement
  • Voted for strict law enforcement penalties against illicit fentanyl traffickers

“Marcy believes in secure borders and legal immigration. She has voted to improve and expand border security, to hire more than 10,000 border agents, and to enable military presence at the border if needed.”

“Marcy knows that this issue is not a Democrat or Republican problem, it’s an American problem that would be solved if we work together.”

Republican Derek Merrin

Supports border wall, military deployment, and deportations

Merrin advocates for strict border enforcement measures to stop illegal crossings and drug cartels. He supports deploying the U.S. military to the southern border, completing the border wall initiated under Donald Trump, and executing deportations of illegal immigrants.

  • Supports deploying the U.S. military to secure the southern border
  • Pledges to finish construction of the border wall
  • Supports deporting undocumented immigrants

“As a Member of Congress, I will continue to champion a secure border to ensure the safety of Northwest Ohio families. I support sending the military to secure the border to stop drug cartels and human trafficking. Furthermore, we must finish Trump's wall and deport illegal immigrants.”

03

Social Security and Medicare

high salience

Kaptur focuses on blocking privatization and lowering drug costs, while Merrin emphasizes eliminating federal income taxes on Social Security benefits and repealing the Windfall Elimination Provision.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur

Opposes entitlement cuts and privatization

Kaptur strongly opposes any proposals to cut or privatize Social Security and Medicare. She argues that working citizens have paid into these programs throughout their careers and promises to defend earned benefit levels while fighting to reduce prescription drug costs for seniors.

  • Opposes structural cuts or privatization of Social Security and Medicare
  • Fights to lower prescription drug costs and out-of-pocket healthcare expenses for seniors

“She has fought to protect Social Security and Medicare from cuts and privatization, because working people have spent years paying into the system and they deserve to be covered.”

Republican Derek Merrin

Protects benefits and repeals taxes on benefits

Merrin promises to protect earned Social Security and Medicare benefits for seniors while criticizing incumbent leadership for allowing the trust funds to become fragile. He advocates for eliminating federal income taxes on Social Security benefits and repealing the windfall elimination provision.

  • Pledges to protect earned Social Security and Medicare benefits
  • Supports eliminating federal income tax on Social Security benefits
  • Supports repealing the Windfall Elimination Provision that reduces benefits for certain public workers

“As a Member of Congress, I will protect our earned benefits that provide safety and security to elder Americans. Also, I support removing the federal tax burden on Social Security benefits as well as eliminating the windfall provision that penalizes hardworking Americans.”

04

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Kaptur opposes federal abortion bans and supports reproductive choice, whereas Merrin has sponsored state-level abortion restrictions and holds a pro-life stance.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur

Opposes national abortion ban and supports access

Kaptur maintains that personal medical decisions should remain between a woman and her healthcare provider. She explicitly opposes a federal abortion ban—particularly those without exceptions for rape, incest, or life of the mother—and supported Ohio's 2023 Issue 1 constitutional amendment protecting reproductive rights.

  • Opposes a federal abortion ban
  • Opposes criminalization of reproductive healthcare procedures
  • Supported Ohio Issue 1 in 2023 establishing state constitutional reproductive rights

“A woman’s health decisions must be between a woman and her doctor, not out-of-touch lawmakers. Marcy opposes a national abortion ban, especially a ban that would not make exceptions for rape, incest or life of the mother.”

Republican Derek Merrin

Supports pro-life legislation

Merrin has established a strong anti-abortion voting record during his time in the state legislature. He successfully authored and passed the Down Syndrome Non-Discrimination Act in Ohio to restrict abortion based on genetic diagnoses.

  • Sponsored and passed the Down Syndrome Non-Discrimination Act (HB 214) in Ohio
  • Consistently backed pro-life legislative measures in the state house

“He prevailed in his pursuit of the Epinephrine Accessibility Act (HB 101) and the Down Syndrome Non-Discrimination Act (HB 214).”

05

Government accountability and election laws

medium salience

Kaptur targets campaign spending limits and Wall Street banking reforms, while Merrin promotes congressional term limits and stricter voter photo-ID laws.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur

Supports campaign finance reform and bank regulation

Kaptur prioritizes reducing the influence of money in elections by advocating for legislative and constitutional efforts to overturn Citizens United and limit campaign spending. She also targets financial sector reform, authoring the Return to Prudent Banking Act to reinstate Glass-Steagall protections and funding forensic investigators for financial crimes.

  • Supports overturning the Citizens United Supreme Court decision
  • Authored the Return to Prudent Banking Act to reinstate Glass-Steagall separation of commercial and investment banking
  • Supported the Financial Crisis Investigation Act authorizing 1,000 agents to investigate financial crimes

“Marcy Kaptur knows we must reign in special interests and has supported legislation to repeal Citizens United, to limit spending in elections, and to improve access to the ballot for candidates.”

“Marcy has proposed the Return to Prudent Banking Act, which would reinstate the provisions of the Glass-Steagall Act to address these issues and more.”

Republican Derek Merrin

Supports term limits and strict voter ID

Merrin champions constitutional term limits to curb career politicians, signing a pledge to limit U.S. House members to three terms (six years). In Ohio, he played a key role in enacting photo voter ID requirements and authored the Ballot Uniformity and Transparency Act to clarify tax levy costs on ballots.

  • Signed U.S. Term Limits pledge limiting House members to three terms
  • Played a key role in enacting mandatory photo-ID voting laws in Ohio
  • Authored the Ballot Uniformity and Transparency Act (HB 140) regarding tax levies

“I believe we must impose term limits upon Members of Congress to ensure new leadership that reflects the American population. That’s why I’ve signed the U.S. Term Limits pledge to cosponsor and vote for a constitutional amendment that limits members to three House terms.”

06

Veterans and military affairs

medium salience

Kaptur highlights federal achievements like the PACT Act and military base funding, while Merrin emphasizes state-level tuition assistance for families of fallen law enforcement and military service members.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur

Supports veterans healthcare expansion and base infrastructure

Kaptur helped pass the PACT Act to expand benefits for toxic-exposed veterans and secured funding for V.A. clinics across northern Ohio. She spearheaded efforts to maintain and modernize the 180th Fighter Wing in Toledo and led the 17-year campaign to build the National World War II Memorial in Washington, D.C.

  • Supported passage of the PACT Act expanding healthcare access for veterans
  • Secured federal appropriations for state-of-the-art V.A. clinics in northern Ohio
  • Delivered federal support to expand facilities for Toledo's 180th Fighter Wing and Camp Perry
  • Led the effort to establish the National World War II Memorial

“In 2022, she helped pass the PACT Act, marking the largest expansion of benefits and services for veterans in more than 30 years.”

Republican Derek Merrin

Supports fallen first responder and military family tuition relief

In the Ohio House, Merrin sponsored the Anthony Dia Act to grant college tuition waivers to spouses and children of law enforcement officers and military members killed in the line of duty. He has received endorsements from local police patrolman and command officer associations.

  • Sponsored the Anthony Dia Act (HB 760) waiving college tuition for families of fallen officers and military members
  • Endorsed by the Toledo Police Patrolman's Association and Toledo Police Command Officers Association

“In 2020, Merrin successfully sponsored the Anthony Dia Act (760) making it easier for children and spouses of law enforcement and military service members killed in the line of duty to access college tuition waivers.”

07

Education and workforce training

medium salience

Kaptur emphasizes federal funding for trade training and technical skills programs, whereas Merrin focuses on state school choice expansion and trade exposure for counselors.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur

Supports trade skills training and public education

Kaptur focuses on expanding job training and technical skills education so workers can access good-paying jobs without needing a four-year college degree. She has secured federal funding for local Northern Ohio vocational programs.

  • Secured funding for regional technical skills and job training initiatives
  • Promotes non-four-year degree pathways for high-wage manufacturing and trade jobs

“Marcy believes that if you’re willing to work hard, then you shouldn’t need a four-year college degree to get a good-paying job. That’s why she is a strong supporter of job training and technical skills programs...”

Republican Derek Merrin

Supports school choice and vocational exposure

Merrin advocates for expanding school choice options for families. In state budget legislation, he spearheaded a requirement that public school counselors undergo training at construction trades facilities to introduce students to vocational career opportunities.

  • Led legislative efforts to expand school choice options in Ohio
  • Authored state budget policy requiring school counselor training at construction trade facilities
  • Expanded Forever Buckeye Program (HB 371) providing in-state college tuition access for Ohio GED earners

“Derek successfully led efforts to cut the state's income tax, reduce regulations, and expand school choice.”

“In the state budget, Merrin spearheaded the requirement for school counselors to receive educational training at construction trades facilities to become knowledgeable about in-demand jobs.”

08

Housing and property tax

medium salience

Kaptur advocates for federal grants to expand affordable housing and rehabilitate disinvested neighborhoods, while Merrin passed state legislation limiting property tax increases on homebuilders and real estate investors.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur

Supports affordable housing investment and neighborhood revitalization

Kaptur introduced the Restoring Communities Left Behind Act to drive federal investments into urban and rural communities suffering from disinvestment. She advocates expanding affordable housing supply, remediating residential lead hazards, and funding home weatherization.

  • Introduced the Restoring Communities Left Behind Act for community investment
  • Advocates for expanding affordable housing stock and reducing home lead hazards

“Marcy is a leader in efforts to increase the supply of affordable housing, while reducing the dangers of lead in legacy homes. She has introduced the Restoring Communities Left Behind Act to invest in both urban and rural communities that have seen disinvestment over the years.”

Republican Derek Merrin

Supports property tax caps for developers and tax appeal reform

In the Ohio legislature, Merrin authored the Affordable Homebuilding & Housing Act to freeze property tax increases on subdivided lots until homes are constructed or sold. He also reformed Board of Revision laws to restrict local governments from challenging property values to raise property taxes.

  • Passed the Affordable Homebuilding & Housing Act capping property taxes on subdivided lots
  • Reformed Board of Revision law (HB 126) limiting local government challenges to increase property taxes
  • Simplified procedures for homeowners to challenge property tax valuations (HB 118)

“After a five-year push, Merrin pushed through the Affordable Homebuilding & Housing Act, which blocks property tax increases on subdivided lots until the home is built or lot is sold.”

09

Energy and Great Lakes environment

medium salience

Kaptur presents a detailed platform on Great Lakes funding and renewable energy incentives, whereas Merrin lacks a documented federal environmental platform in available sources.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur

Supports all-of-the-above energy and Great Lakes protection

As Energy and Water Appropriations subcommittee leader, Kaptur supports an all-of-the-above energy strategy combining solar, wind, geothermal, and biofuels to achieve energy independence and reduce emissions. She works in a bipartisan manner to secure full funding for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative to combat invasive species and algal blooms.

  • Promotes an all-of-the-above domestic energy strategy including renewables and biofuels
  • Secured funding for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative to protect Lake Erie
  • Supports residential weatherization programs to increase energy efficiency and lower utility bills

“As chair of the Energy and Water subcommittee on Appropriations, Marcy believes we need an “all of the above” energy policy. Whether it’s solar, wind, geo-thermal, or biofuels, our region can lead us into a 21st century energy future...”

“When the initiative was threatened to be zeroed out, Marcy worked in a bipartisan manner to restore it – and the promise of clean, fresh water for our region.”

Republican Derek Merrin No documented position in our sources
10

Second Amendment and gun policy

low salience

Merrin highlights his record passing constitutional carry in Ohio, while Kaptur's platform in the provided sources does not outline specific firearm positions.

Democratic Marcy Kaptur No documented position in our sources

Republican Derek Merrin

Supports constitutional carry rights

Merrin highlights his key legislative leadership role in enacting constitutional carry in Ohio, allowing citizens to carry concealed firearms without a state permit.

  • Played a primary role in passing constitutional carry legislation in Ohio

“He played key roles in the requirement to show photo-ID to vote and to allow Ohioans the constitutional right to carry .”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

OH-09 House Election Winner

73.5% Democrats
25.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 73.5REPUBLICANS 25.5

Kalshi ↗

OH-09 House winner?

70.0% Marcy Kaptur
32.0% Derek Merrin
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16KAPTUR 70.0MERRIN 32.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.