Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Ohio Lean R

Ohio — 7th District

Portrait of Brian Poindexter

Democrat

Brian Poindexter

The 2026 general election for Ohio's 7th Congressional District features Republican incumbent Max Miller against Democratic challenger Brian Poindexter, a union ironworker and former city councilman. Following 2025 mid-decade redistricting, the district favored Donald Trump by 11 percentage points in 2024, but the race dramatically shifted in July 2026 after spousal and child abuse allegations were leveled against Miller by his ex-wife. Recent August 2026 polling shows Poindexter holding single-to-double-digit leads over the incumbent. Major nonpartisan election forecasters—including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk/The Hill—rate the general election as a Toss-up.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
78.5%
Republicans
22.0%
Kalshi ↗
Brian Poindexter
76.0%
Max Miller
23.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Poindexter favors building the economy from the worker level up through stronger protections and wage growth, whereas Miller advocates getting government out of the way to foster private-sector job growth.

Democratic Brian Poindexter

Focuses on bottom-up worker prosperity

Poindexter argues that the economy should be built from the working-class foundation up rather than focusing solely on corporate profits. He emphasizes that cost-of-living pressures hit working families hardest and calls for economic policies that ensure hard work translates to predictable costs and a dignified life.

  • Advocates for economic policies that reward work rather than corporate boardrooms
  • Demands predictable costs and fair wages to offset rising prices for groceries and utilities
  • Criticizes Washington double standards that force working families to sacrifice during economic downturns

“Right now, too many families are doing everything right and still falling behind.”

Republican Max Miller

Advocates free-market job creation

Miller believes the most effective way to lift families out of poverty is through robust private-sector job creation. He argues that reducing government intervention and curbing federal overspending will make Ohio and America stronger while lowering inflation.

  • Calls for getting government out of the way of businesses and job creators
  • Focuses on making America the best location for business investment and hiring
  • Attributes inflation and high cost of living to excessive federal spending

“The number one thing that will lift our neighbors out of poverty and put them on a path to a better life is a good-paying job.”

02

Taxation

high salience

Miller champions making existing tax cuts permanent alongside tax exemptions for tips and overtime, while Poindexter argues federal tax policies disproportionately enrich corporations and the wealthy.

Democratic Brian Poindexter

Opposes tax breaks for wealthy

Poindexter criticizes federal tax policies that he argues disproportionately benefit wealthy individuals and large corporations. He contends that working families should not be treated as a primary revenue source to cover federal deficits while corporations receive tax cuts.

  • Criticizes tax cuts that flow easily to the wealthiest and most powerful corporations
  • Opposes double standards where working families are asked to sacrifice while corporate subsidies expand
  • Calls for tax policy that prioritizes working-class relief over corporate write-offs

“When tax cuts are debated in Washington, they seem to flow easily to the wealthiest and most powerful.”

Republican Max Miller

Supports permanent conservative tax cuts

Miller supports lowering tax burdens on working families and businesses to boost the economy. In Congress, he has voted to make existing tax cuts permanent and supports eliminating federal taxes on tips and overtime.

  • Voted to support making individual and corporate tax cuts permanent
  • Supports eliminating federal income taxes on employee tips
  • Supports eliminating federal income taxes on overtime wages

“Max knows the burden excess taxation can place on working families in the 7th district. That’s why he has voted to support making tax cuts permanent, no tax on tips, and no tax on overtime.”

03

Manufacturing and trade

medium salience

Poindexter explicitly conditions corporate tax breaks on stopping job outsourcing, while Miller focuses on infrastructure investments to build domestic supply chain strength.

Democratic Brian Poindexter

Penalizes corporate outsourcing of jobs

Poindexter calls for strict accountability for corporations that ship jobs overseas to exploit cheaper foreign labor. He advocates conditioning federal tax breaks, subsidies, and market access on creating good-paying jobs and investing in domestic supply chains.

  • Proposes ending tax breaks and subsidies for companies that outsource manufacturing jobs
  • Ties corporate subsidies directly to domestic job creation and respect for worker rights
  • Supports investing in domestic manufacturing to safeguard national supply chains

“If corporations want tax breaks, subsidies, and access to American markets, they should earn them by creating good-paying jobs here, respecting workers’ rights, and investing in the communities that support them.”

Republican Max Miller

Supports domestic supply chain strength

Miller emphasizes strengthening domestic supply chains and manufacturing through infrastructure modernization and America First economic policies. He aims to reduce reliance on foreign competitors like China while creating job growth in Ohio.

  • Supports infrastructure modernization to keep commerce moving and supply chains resilient
  • Focuses on reducing American economic reliance on foreign competitors
  • Promotes local economic policies that encourage manufacturing growth in Ohio

“When we rebuild and modernize our infrastructure here at home, we strengthen our supply chains, reduce dependence on foreign competitors, and keep America secure.”

04

Border security and immigration

high salience
Democratic Brian Poindexter No documented position in our sources

Republican Max Miller

Supports strict border security enforcement

Miller views southern border security as vital to preventing illegal immigration, stopping human trafficking, and curtailing the flow of illicit drugs like fentanyl into Ohio communities. He consistently votes for stringent border enforcement measures in the House.

  • Supports securing the southern border to block fentanyl and illicit drug trafficking
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act to require detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for theft
  • Voted for the Secure the Border Act of 2023 to restrict asylum eligibility and mandate worker verification

“The lawlessness at the southern border has led to illicit drugs on our streets, dangerous criminals getting rich, and human trafficking of innocent victims.”

05

Worker rights and unions

high salience

Democratic Brian Poindexter

Protects union organizing and safety

As an active union ironworker and apprenticeship instructor, Poindexter views union organizing as an essential right to guarantee workplace safety, dignity, and fair compensation. He advocates for legal protections against employer intimidation and retaliation.

  • Protects workers' right to organize unions without facing employer retaliation or fear tactics
  • Opposes framing workplace safety regulations as burdensome red tape
  • Champions labor unions as essential for setting higher wage, benefit, and safety standards across industries

“A union isn’t an outside force — it’s working people standing together to protect each other.”

Republican Max Miller No documented position in our sources
06

Healthcare

medium salience

Democratic Brian Poindexter

Advocates portable and transparent healthcare

Poindexter believes health insurance should be portable and independent of employment so workers do not risk losing coverage during job changes or layoffs. He criticizes the current system's hidden costs and complexity, urging common-sense reform to protect families from financial ruin.

  • Supports portable healthcare so coverage does not disappear with job loss
  • Demands transparency to eliminate hidden costs, deductibles, and surprise medical billing
  • Opposes employer leverage derived from tying basic health coverage directly to employment

“Tying healthcare to employment gives bad bosses leverage they shouldn’t have.”

Republican Max Miller No documented position in our sources
07

Energy

medium salience
Democratic Brian Poindexter No documented position in our sources

Republican Max Miller

Promotes American energy independence

Miller advocates expanding domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production to achieve American energy independence and lower household energy prices. He opposes Biden administration regulations and supports returning to Donald Trump's energy production policies.

  • Supports expanding domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production
  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to reduce pipeline and energy project permitting restrictions
  • Seeks to reduce consumer electricity and fuel prices by expanding American energy output

“Max will continue to support the policies of the Trump administration to develop American energy independence and reduce the costs of gas and electricity.”

08

Workforce development

medium salience
Democratic Brian Poindexter No documented position in our sources

Republican Max Miller

Expands technical and career education

Miller emphasizes expanding vocational, career, and technical education opportunities as viable alternatives to traditional four-year college degrees. He focuses on helping workers acquire skilled trade jobs without incurring student loan debt.

  • Promotes career and technical education to prepare workers for high-demand skilled jobs
  • Advocates career paths that avoid four-year college degrees and student debt burdens
  • Works to expand workforce development programs across Ohio

“The American dream does not require a 4-year degree and a mountain of student loan debt.”

09

Law enforcement and public safety

medium salience
Democratic Brian Poindexter No documented position in our sources

Republican Max Miller

Supports increased funding for police

Miller strongly supports law enforcement officers and opposes efforts to defund or reform police departments. He advocates for increased federal funding and resources to protect front-line officers and improve community safety.

  • Pledges to secure increased funding and operational support for law enforcement agencies
  • Opposes Democratic proposals that he argues defund or degrade police forces
  • Focuses on boosting police morale and protecting local communities

“While radical Democrats want to defund and degrade our law enforcement on the front lines, Max will fight for increased funding and support for law enforcement.”

10

Infrastructure

medium salience
Democratic Brian Poindexter No documented position in our sources

Republican Max Miller

Prioritizes modernizing transport and broadband

Miller views modernizing physical and digital infrastructure as a core element of his America First agenda. He supports federal investment in roads, bridges, railways, and rural broadband to foster commerce and create local jobs.

  • Supports investments in roads, bridges, rail systems, and high-speed broadband
  • Frames infrastructure modernization as essential to economic resilience and supply chains
  • Promotes local job creation through construction and engineering projects

“No policy is more America First than investing in our infrastructure.”

11

Agriculture and rural communities

low salience
Democratic Brian Poindexter No documented position in our sources

Republican Max Miller

Supports Ohio farmers and agriculture

Miller focuses on championing Ohio's agricultural sector by working to lower input and energy costs for farmers. As a member of the House Committee on Agriculture, he works to support rural communities and farm businesses.

  • Serves on the House Committee on Agriculture
  • Works to reduce rising energy and input costs for Ohio farmers
  • Advocates for federal policies that support rural communities and agricultural producers

“He’s steadfast in his push to secure the southern border, expand workforce development opportunities, and empower Ohio and America’s farmers and rural communities.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

OH-07 House Election Winner

78.5% Democrats
22.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 78.5REPUBLICANS 22.0

Kalshi ↗

OH-07 House winner?

76.0% Brian Poindexter
23.0% Max Miller
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16POINDEXTER 76.0PARTY 29.0MILLER 23.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.