Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · New York Lean D

New York — 19th District

Portrait of Josh Riley

Democrat / Working Families Party

Josh Riley

Portrait of Peter Oberacker

Republican / Conservative Party

Peter Oberacker

In New York's 19th Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Rep. Josh Riley faces Republican challenger Peter Oberacker, a New York State Senator and retired food scientist. The election hinges on inflation and taxes, district visibility, border security, and reproductive rights. Major forecasters rate the race as Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
94.2%
Republicans
5.2%
Kalshi ↗
Josh Riley
96.0%
Peter Oberacker
5.5%

All markets →

01

Economy, taxes, and cost of living

high salience

Riley advocates tax cuts for the middle class funded by higher taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations, while Oberacker emphasizes his personal business background and record of never voting for a budget that raised taxes.

Democratic Josh Riley

Cut middle-class taxes and lower costs

Riley advocates tax cuts for working families while requiring corporations and high earners to pay more. He supports cracking down on price gouging, capping prescription drug costs, opposing utility rate hikes, and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit.

  • Supports middle-class tax cuts, expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, and creating a wealth surtax on high incomes.
  • Proposes closing the carried interest loophole and opposing utility monopoly rate hikes.
  • Supports price gouging crackdowns and capping drug prices.
  • Voted against H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act reconciliation bill.

“The Middle Class needs a tax cut; billionaires and big corporations don’t.”

“Pay more Pete has spent his time in Albany screwing over upstate New Yorkers – helping the utility monopolies raise rates while cashing their corporate PAC checks, letting health insurance companies rip us off and raising taxes on working people 14 times.”

Republican Peter Oberacker

Keep taxes low and support business

Oberacker emphasizes his record as a multi-million-dollar food innovation business founder and public official who has consistently avoided tax increases. He highlights his commitment to fiscal discipline and common-sense economic growth.

  • Highlights a record of never creating a budget that raised taxes in state or local government.
  • Founded FormTech Solutions, an international food innovation company.
  • Focuses on keeping taxes low and promoting fiscal accountability.

“He has never created a budget that raised taxes.”

02

Government reform and campaign finance

medium salience

Riley emphasizes campaign finance reform and refusing corporate PAC money, whereas Oberacker highlights constituent accessibility and criticizes Riley's physical presence in the district.

Democratic Josh Riley

Ban corporate PACs and reform ethics

Riley refuses corporate PAC contributions and pledges to reform federal campaign finance. He supports congressional term limits, overturning Citizens United, and ending partisan gerrymandering.

  • Refuses all corporate PAC contributions.
  • Supports congressional term limits and overturning Citizens United.
  • Advocates ending partisan gerrymandering and passing voting rights protections.

“Will never take a penny of corporate PAC money – because his vote will never be for sale”

Republican Peter Oberacker

Ensure constituent visibility and service

Oberacker emphasizes his long tenure in local and state public office and promises to maintain an active presence across the district. He criticizes Riley for being distant from district constituents.

  • Emphasizes decades of public service in town, county, and state legislative roles.
  • Pledges to maintain high visibility and constituent contact across the district.

“The first problem I’m going to tackle is making the folks understand that they’ve got a Congressman who actually comes to the district and is visible in the district.”

03

Border security and immigration

high salience

Democratic Josh Riley

Secure border and reform immigration

Riley characterizes the southern border as broken and supports bipartisan measures to secure it. He advocates hiring additional border patrol agents, expanding fentanyl detection technology, adding immigration judges, and updating agricultural visa programs.

  • Supports hiring new border patrol agents and expanding fentanyl detection machines at ports of entry.
  • Proposes adding immigration judges to expedite asylum processing.
  • Supports updating visa programs to ensure farmers and trades unions have access to labor.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 to make driving under the influence grounds for deportation or barring admission.

“The Southern Border is an absolute disaster, and Joe Biden, Marc Molinaro, and Washington politicians from both parties have failed us by refusing to secure it.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
04

Reproductive rights and abortion

high salience

Democratic Josh Riley

Codify federal abortion access

Riley opposes government restrictions on reproductive choices and promises to sponsor federal legislation to restore Roe v. Wade. He also supports constitutional protections for reproductive freedom and safeguards for IVF, birth control, and mifepristone.

  • Pledges to sponsor the Women’s Health Protection Act to restore Roe v. Wade into federal law.
  • Supports a federal constitutional amendment guaranteeing reproductive rights.
  • Opposes restrictions on birth control, IVF, and mifepristone.

“Josh’s view is simple: women’s healthcare decisions are women’s healthcare decisions, and politicians should stay the hell out of them.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
05

Public safety and criminal justice

medium salience

Democratic Josh Riley

Fund police and reform bail laws

Riley opposes proposals to defund the police and supports expanding federal funding for local law enforcement. He also advocates modifying New York's cashless bail policy to give judges clear discretion over violent and repeat offenders.

  • Opposes defunding the police and supports Byrne JAG and COPS grant funding for police hiring.
  • Calls for reforming New York's cashless bail policy to increase judicial discretion over violent offenders.
  • Supports collective bargaining rights, enhanced retirement benefits, and overtime protections for law enforcement.

“Josh is adamantly opposed to proposals to “defund the police,” and he believes that public safety requires more resources, not fewer.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
06

Healthcare

medium salience

Democratic Josh Riley

Expand healthcare access and lower costs

Riley views healthcare as a civil right and supports creating a public insurance option to increase competition. He advocates expanding Medicare benefits, banning pay-for-delay pharmaceutical deals, and improving rural telehealth infrastructure.

  • Supports creating a public health insurance option and expanding Medicare to cover dental, vision, and hearing.
  • Advocates lowering prescription drug costs and banning pay-for-delay deals.
  • Supports expanding rural broadband to facilitate telehealth access.

“Josh believes that healthcare should be a civil right in America, not something that bankrupts so many American families.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
07

Agriculture and small farms

medium salience

Democratic Josh Riley

Support small family farms

Riley supports taking action against large agricultural monopolies and preventing foreign entities from buying domestic farmland. He advocates for local food hubs, farm mental health programs, and reauthorizing the Farm Bill.

  • Supports breaking up Big Ag monopolies and banning foreign adversaries like China from buying U.S. farmland.
  • Advocates connecting local farm produce with local public schools.
  • Supports federal funding for agricultural mental health initiatives like NY FarmNet.

“Stop foreign adversaries like China from buying up American farmland–because food security is national security and our heartland should not for sale to those who wish us harm;”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
08

Manufacturing and trade

medium salience

Democratic Josh Riley

Revitalize domestic manufacturing

Riley supports expanding manufacturing in Upstate New York for semiconductors, solar panels, and batteries. He advocates CTE job training, ending trade deals that ship jobs overseas, and confronting unfair Chinese trade practices.

  • Supports federal investment in advanced manufacturing for semiconductors and green tech.
  • Advocates confronting unfair trade practices by China and expanding CTE job training.
  • Supports career and technical education diplomas as alternatives to four-year degrees.

“Josh believes we can revitalize our economy and rebuild the middle class by putting Upstate New York back on the forefront of manufacturing”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
09

Environment and energy

low salience

Democratic Josh Riley

Protect natural resources and clean energy

Riley calls climate change an existential threat and advocates clean energy production alongside safeguards for regional natural landmarks. He supports updating the Safe Drinking Water Act and restoring EPA regulatory power.

  • Supports Safe Drinking Water Act updates and holding polluters accountable.
  • Advocates ending long-term fossil fuel reliance and protecting natural treasures like the Catskills and Finger Lakes.
  • Supports restoring EPA authority to combat climate change.

“Josh believes we are facing existential threats to our environment, which require bold action.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
10

Labor and union rights

low salience

Democratic Josh Riley

Protect workers and organize unions

Riley strongly supports organized labor and making it easier for workers to unionize. He advocates for the PRO Act, Project Labor Agreements, and stricter labor law enforcement.

  • Supports passage of the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act.
  • Advocates Project Labor Agreements for local construction projects.
  • Supports increased enforcement of federal Fair Labor Standards Act provisions.

“Josh knows that strong unions built a strong Middle Class. Josh supports organized labor, and he believes we should make it easier to join a union and harder to bust one.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

NY-19 House Election Winner

94.2% Democrats
5.2% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 94.2REPUBLICANS 5.2

Kalshi ↗

NY-19 House winner?

96.0% Josh Riley
5.5% Peter Oberacker
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16RILEY 96.0OBERACKER 5.5

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.