2026 Midterms · U.S. House · New York Lean D
New York — 19th District
In New York's 19th Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Rep. Josh Riley faces Republican challenger Peter Oberacker, a New York State Senator and retired food scientist. The election hinges on inflation and taxes, district visibility, border security, and reproductive rights. Major forecasters rate the race as Likely Democratic or Lean Democratic.
The pulse
updated Sep 16Economy, taxes, and cost of living
high salienceRiley advocates tax cuts for the middle class funded by higher taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations, while Oberacker emphasizes his personal business background and record of never voting for a budget that raised taxes.
Democratic Josh Riley
Cut middle-class taxes and lower costs
Riley advocates tax cuts for working families while requiring corporations and high earners to pay more. He supports cracking down on price gouging, capping prescription drug costs, opposing utility rate hikes, and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit.
- Supports middle-class tax cuts, expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, and creating a wealth surtax on high incomes.
- Proposes closing the carried interest loophole and opposing utility monopoly rate hikes.
- Supports price gouging crackdowns and capping drug prices.
- Voted against H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act reconciliation bill.
“The Middle Class needs a tax cut; billionaires and big corporations don’t.”
“Pay more Pete has spent his time in Albany screwing over upstate New Yorkers – helping the utility monopolies raise rates while cashing their corporate PAC checks, letting health insurance companies rip us off and raising taxes on working people 14 times.”
Republican Peter Oberacker
Keep taxes low and support business
Oberacker emphasizes his record as a multi-million-dollar food innovation business founder and public official who has consistently avoided tax increases. He highlights his commitment to fiscal discipline and common-sense economic growth.
- Highlights a record of never creating a budget that raised taxes in state or local government.
- Founded FormTech Solutions, an international food innovation company.
- Focuses on keeping taxes low and promoting fiscal accountability.
“He has never created a budget that raised taxes.”
Government reform and campaign finance
medium salienceRiley emphasizes campaign finance reform and refusing corporate PAC money, whereas Oberacker highlights constituent accessibility and criticizes Riley's physical presence in the district.
Democratic Josh Riley
Ban corporate PACs and reform ethics
Riley refuses corporate PAC contributions and pledges to reform federal campaign finance. He supports congressional term limits, overturning Citizens United, and ending partisan gerrymandering.
- Refuses all corporate PAC contributions.
- Supports congressional term limits and overturning Citizens United.
- Advocates ending partisan gerrymandering and passing voting rights protections.
“Will never take a penny of corporate PAC money – because his vote will never be for sale”
Republican Peter Oberacker
Ensure constituent visibility and service
Oberacker emphasizes his long tenure in local and state public office and promises to maintain an active presence across the district. He criticizes Riley for being distant from district constituents.
- Emphasizes decades of public service in town, county, and state legislative roles.
- Pledges to maintain high visibility and constituent contact across the district.
“The first problem I’m going to tackle is making the folks understand that they’ve got a Congressman who actually comes to the district and is visible in the district.”
Border security and immigration
high salienceDemocratic Josh Riley
Secure border and reform immigration
Riley characterizes the southern border as broken and supports bipartisan measures to secure it. He advocates hiring additional border patrol agents, expanding fentanyl detection technology, adding immigration judges, and updating agricultural visa programs.
- Supports hiring new border patrol agents and expanding fentanyl detection machines at ports of entry.
- Proposes adding immigration judges to expedite asylum processing.
- Supports updating visa programs to ensure farmers and trades unions have access to labor.
- Voted Yea on H.R. 875 to make driving under the influence grounds for deportation or barring admission.
“The Southern Border is an absolute disaster, and Joe Biden, Marc Molinaro, and Washington politicians from both parties have failed us by refusing to secure it.”
Reproductive rights and abortion
high salienceDemocratic Josh Riley
Codify federal abortion access
Riley opposes government restrictions on reproductive choices and promises to sponsor federal legislation to restore Roe v. Wade. He also supports constitutional protections for reproductive freedom and safeguards for IVF, birth control, and mifepristone.
- Pledges to sponsor the Women’s Health Protection Act to restore Roe v. Wade into federal law.
- Supports a federal constitutional amendment guaranteeing reproductive rights.
- Opposes restrictions on birth control, IVF, and mifepristone.
“Josh’s view is simple: women’s healthcare decisions are women’s healthcare decisions, and politicians should stay the hell out of them.”
Public safety and criminal justice
medium salienceDemocratic Josh Riley
Fund police and reform bail laws
Riley opposes proposals to defund the police and supports expanding federal funding for local law enforcement. He also advocates modifying New York's cashless bail policy to give judges clear discretion over violent and repeat offenders.
- Opposes defunding the police and supports Byrne JAG and COPS grant funding for police hiring.
- Calls for reforming New York's cashless bail policy to increase judicial discretion over violent offenders.
- Supports collective bargaining rights, enhanced retirement benefits, and overtime protections for law enforcement.
“Josh is adamantly opposed to proposals to “defund the police,” and he believes that public safety requires more resources, not fewer.”
Healthcare
medium salienceDemocratic Josh Riley
Expand healthcare access and lower costs
Riley views healthcare as a civil right and supports creating a public insurance option to increase competition. He advocates expanding Medicare benefits, banning pay-for-delay pharmaceutical deals, and improving rural telehealth infrastructure.
- Supports creating a public health insurance option and expanding Medicare to cover dental, vision, and hearing.
- Advocates lowering prescription drug costs and banning pay-for-delay deals.
- Supports expanding rural broadband to facilitate telehealth access.
“Josh believes that healthcare should be a civil right in America, not something that bankrupts so many American families.”
Agriculture and small farms
medium salienceDemocratic Josh Riley
Support small family farms
Riley supports taking action against large agricultural monopolies and preventing foreign entities from buying domestic farmland. He advocates for local food hubs, farm mental health programs, and reauthorizing the Farm Bill.
- Supports breaking up Big Ag monopolies and banning foreign adversaries like China from buying U.S. farmland.
- Advocates connecting local farm produce with local public schools.
- Supports federal funding for agricultural mental health initiatives like NY FarmNet.
“Stop foreign adversaries like China from buying up American farmland–because food security is national security and our heartland should not for sale to those who wish us harm;”
Manufacturing and trade
medium salienceDemocratic Josh Riley
Revitalize domestic manufacturing
Riley supports expanding manufacturing in Upstate New York for semiconductors, solar panels, and batteries. He advocates CTE job training, ending trade deals that ship jobs overseas, and confronting unfair Chinese trade practices.
- Supports federal investment in advanced manufacturing for semiconductors and green tech.
- Advocates confronting unfair trade practices by China and expanding CTE job training.
- Supports career and technical education diplomas as alternatives to four-year degrees.
“Josh believes we can revitalize our economy and rebuild the middle class by putting Upstate New York back on the forefront of manufacturing”
Environment and energy
low salienceDemocratic Josh Riley
Protect natural resources and clean energy
Riley calls climate change an existential threat and advocates clean energy production alongside safeguards for regional natural landmarks. He supports updating the Safe Drinking Water Act and restoring EPA regulatory power.
- Supports Safe Drinking Water Act updates and holding polluters accountable.
- Advocates ending long-term fossil fuel reliance and protecting natural treasures like the Catskills and Finger Lakes.
- Supports restoring EPA authority to combat climate change.
“Josh believes we are facing existential threats to our environment, which require bold action.”
Labor and union rights
low salienceDemocratic Josh Riley
Protect workers and organize unions
Riley strongly supports organized labor and making it easier for workers to unionize. He advocates for the PRO Act, Project Labor Agreements, and stricter labor law enforcement.
- Supports passage of the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act.
- Advocates Project Labor Agreements for local construction projects.
- Supports increased enforcement of federal Fair Labor Standards Act provisions.
“Josh knows that strong unions built a strong Middle Class. Josh supports organized labor, and he believes we should make it easier to join a union and harder to bust one.”
Prediction markets 2
updated Sep 16Polymarket ↗
NY-19 House Election Winner
Kalshi ↗
NY-19 House winner?
Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.