Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · New York Lean D

New York’s 19th District race

Portrait of Josh Riley

Democrat / Working Families Party

Josh Riley

Portrait of Peter Oberacker

Republican / Conservative Party

Peter Oberacker

In New York's 19th Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Josh Riley faces Republican challenger Peter Oberacker in a high-stakes 2026 battleground matchup. Riley, who won the seat in 2024 by defeating incumbent Marcus Molinaro 51.1% to 48.8%, is running on a platform centered on middle-class tax relief, reproductive rights, and manufacturing investments. Oberacker, a New York State Senator, business founder, and former food scientist, emphasizes his fiscal record of keeping taxes low and never raising taxes in a budget.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.9%
Republicans
3.6%
Kalshi ↗
Josh Riley
96.3%
Peter Oberacker
4.4%

All markets →

01

Economy and Taxes

high salience

Riley promotes tax restructuring that increases taxes on corporations and wealthy estates to fund middle-class relief, whereas Oberacker centers his candidacy on a strict record of never raising taxes in any budget.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports middle-class tax cuts and higher corporate taxes

Riley advocates reforming the tax code to ease the burden on working families while requiring high earners and corporations to pay more. He supports expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, closing the carried interest loophole, and imposing a wealth surtax on high incomes and estates. In Congress, he voted against H.R. 1 and H.Con.Res. 14.

  • Proposes tax cuts for middle-class families and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit
  • Calls for closing the carried interest loophole and enacting a wealth surtax on incomes over $5 million
  • Voted Nay on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) and H.Con.Res. 14 fiscal budget resolution

“The Middle Class needs a tax cut; billionaires and big corporations don’t.”

“Pay more Pete has spent his time in Albany screwing over upstate New Yorkers – helping the utility monopolies raise rates while cashing their corporate PAC checks, letting health insurance companies rip us off and raising taxes on working people 14 times.”

Republican Peter Oberacker

Opposes tax increases and promotes fiscal restraint

Oberacker highlights his long-standing background as a small business founder and local/state official dedicated to fiscal responsibility. He emphasizes that throughout his tenure in public service, he has never created a budget that increased taxes.

  • Emphasizes a consistent record of keeping taxes low in local and state government
  • Leverages experience as a business founder and food scientist to advocate for economic growth

“He has never created a budget that raised taxes.”

02

Public Safety and Criminal Justice

medium salience

Riley offers concrete legislative proposals including modifying New York's cashless bail laws and increasing federal police grants, while Oberacker emphasizes his decades of direct community service as a firefighter and EMT.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports law enforcement grants and bail reform changes

Riley opposes defunding the police and advocates increased resources for local law enforcement and first responders. He explicitly supports changing New York's cashless bail system to give judges greater discretion regarding violent and repeat offenders, alongside supporting re-entry programs and civil rights protections.

  • Opposes proposals to defund the police and supports Byrne JAG and COPS grant funding
  • Advocates modifying New York's cashless bail laws to increase judicial discretion for violent and repeat offenders
  • Supports overtime and pension protections for law enforcement personnel and first responders
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 regarding deportation criteria for driving while intoxicated

“Josh is adamantly opposed to proposals to “defund the police,” and he believes that public safety requires more resources, not fewer.”

Republican Peter Oberacker

Highlights local public safety service

Oberacker highlights his deep personal roots in public safety, emphasizing nearly four decades of service as a volunteer firefighter and EMT in his local community.

  • Served nearly 40 years as a volunteer firefighter and EMT
03

Agriculture and Rural Issues

medium salience

Riley outlines specific federal policies to break up Big Ag and limit foreign farmland purchases, while Oberacker focuses on constituent presence and accuses Riley of putting on a persona to appeal to rural voters.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports small farm protections and anti-monopoly laws

Riley focuses on protecting family farms by challenging Big Ag monopolies, prohibiting foreign adversaries like China from acquiring American farmland, expanding regional food hubs, and supporting farm mental health resources like New York FarmNet.

  • Proposes breaking up Big Ag monopolies and banning foreign adversaries from purchasing U.S. farmland
  • Supports expanding local food hubs and connecting regional farm produce to local schools
  • Advocates reauthorizing the Farm Bill to reward sustainable farming practices like cover crops

“Stop foreign adversaries like China from buying up American farmland–because food security is national security and our heartland should not for sale to those who wish us harm”

Republican Peter Oberacker

Emphasizes rural presence and agricultural background

Oberacker points to his long-standing presence in upstate New York and service on the New York State Senate Agriculture Committee. He attacks Riley as out of touch with real rural constituents.

  • Served on the New York State Senate Agriculture Committee
  • Pledges visible, accessible representation for rural district residents

“Josh Riley never shows up. He puts on a flannel and thinks he is a farmer, and then he skirts a lot of the issues.”

04

Cost of Living and Energy

high salience

Riley offers a detailed platform targeting corporate price gouging, utility rate hikes, and drug prices, while Oberacker has not detailed a specific cost-of-living platform in the provided sources.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports anti-monopoly measures and drug price caps

Riley targets corporate profiting and monopolies as primary drivers of rising living expenses for Upstate families. He proposes capping prescription drug costs, banning pay-for-delay deals, opposing utility monopoly rate hikes, and cracking down on price gouging.

  • Cracks down on corporate price gouging and opposes rate increases by utility monopolies
  • Bans pay-for-delay deals in the pharmaceutical industry and expands Medicare authority to negotiate drug prices
  • Proposes breaking up big monopolies that squeeze working families and small businesses

“Big corporations are enjoying record profits even while working families are struggling to make ends meet. That’s not fair.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
05

Abortion and Reproductive Health

high salience

Riley strongly advocates codifying Roe v. Wade and passing a constitutional amendment for reproductive rights, whereas Oberacker's platform in the provided sources does not state a position on abortion.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports federal abortion rights protections

Riley considers reproductive freedom a fundamental personal decision and promises to restore federal abortion rights. He pledges to sponsor the Women's Health Protection Act, support a Constitutional amendment protecting reproductive choice, and safeguard access to IVF, contraception, and mifepristone.

  • Pledges to sponsor the Women's Health Protection Act on day one to codify Roe v. Wade into federal law
  • Supports a Constitutional amendment guaranteeing reproductive rights and championed ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment
  • Opposes restrictions on birth control, IVF, or mifepristone

“Josh’s view is simple: women’s healthcare decisions are women’s healthcare decisions, and politicians should stay the hell out of them.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
06

Border Security and Immigration

high salience

Riley presents a detailed platform advocating more border agents, fentanyl detection technology, and visa updates, whereas Oberacker does not address border policy in the provided sources.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports bipartisan border security and enforcement technology

Riley characterizes the southern border as a disaster and calls for comprehensive bipartisan border reform. He supports funding for additional border patrol agents, expanding immigration judges to process asylum claims rapidly, deploying fentanyl detection technology at ports of entry, and updating visa programs for regional agriculture and trade unions.

  • Supports hiring new border patrol agents and increasing funding for law enforcement at the border
  • Calls for hiring more immigration judges to process asylum claims quickly and fairly
  • Advocates technology upgrades at ports of entry to stop fentanyl trafficking
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 (Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act) and recorded Not Voting on S. 5 (Laken Riley Act)

“The Southern Border is an absolute disaster, and Joe Biden, Marc Molinaro, and Washington politicians from both parties have failed us by refusing to secure it.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
07

Government Reform and Campaign Finance

medium salience

Riley bases much of his platform on rejecting corporate PAC contributions and pursuing campaign finance overhaul, while Oberacker has no documented stance on government reform in the sources.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports campaign finance reform and corporate PAC rejection

Riley pledges to refuse corporate PAC money and advocates systemic reforms to reduce money in politics. He supports constitutional measures to overturn Citizens United, end dark money, establish congressional term limits, and eliminate partisan gerrymandering.

  • Rejects all corporate PAC donations for his campaign
  • Supports congressional term limits and overturning Citizens United
  • Advocates ending partisan gerrymandering and passing voting rights protections
  • Voted Nay on H.R. 22 (SAVE Act)

“Will never take a penny of corporate PAC money – because his vote will never be for sale”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
08

Manufacturing and Labor

medium salience

Riley offers explicit support for the PRO Act and clean energy manufacturing subsidies, whereas Oberacker has no detailed labor policy in the provided text.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports union protections and domestic manufacturing

Riley supports reviving Upstate New York's manufacturing heritage through investments in advanced technologies like semiconductors, solar panels, and batteries. He advocates strong union protections, including the PRO Act and Project Labor Agreements.

  • Supports the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act and Project Labor Agreements
  • Promotes federal investment in local advanced manufacturing for semiconductors, batteries, and solar panels
  • Advocates trade policies that confront unfair trade practices by China

“Josh believes we can revitalize our economy and rebuild the middle class by putting Upstate New York back on the forefront of manufacturing”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
09

Healthcare

low salience

Riley advocates establishing a public option and expanding Medicare benefits, while Oberacker's platform in the source material contains no specific healthcare policy proposals.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports healthcare expansion and Medicare enhancements

Riley advocates treating healthcare as a civil right, favoring a public option to increase competition and lower costs. He proposes expanding Medicare to cover vision, dental, and hearing services, addressing rural healthcare provider shortages, and strengthening telehealth.

  • Supports creating a public option to lower healthcare costs and increase competition
  • Advocates expanding Medicare coverage to include dental, vision, and hearing services
  • Focuses on rural healthcare access, broadband for telehealth, and provider shortages

“Josh believes that healthcare should be a civil right in America, not something that bankrupts so many American families.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources
10

Environment and Energy

low salience

Riley calls for transitioning away from fossil fuels and expanding federal environmental regulations, whereas Oberacker lists no specific energy or environmental proposals in the provided text.

Democratic Josh Riley

Supports clean energy transition and pollution enforcement

Riley supports bold environmental policies to address climate threats, including long-term transition away from fossil fuel dependency, holding polluters accountable, protecting local natural landmarks like the Catskills and Finger Lakes, and restoring EPA climate authority.

  • Supports transitioning away from fossil fuel reliance to achieve long-term energy independence
  • Advocates updating the Safe Drinking Water Act and holding polluters accountable
  • Seeks to restore full EPA authority to combat climate change

“Josh believes we are facing existential threats to our environment, which require bold action.”

Republican Peter Oberacker No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

NY-19 House Election Winner

95.9% Democrats
3.6% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 95.9REPUBLICANS 3.6

Kalshi ↗

NY-19 House winner?

96.3% Josh Riley
4.4% Peter Oberacker
255075100AUG 2AUG 27SEP 19OCT 12OCT 31RILEY 96.3OBERACKER 4.4

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.