2026 Midterms · U.S. House · New York Toss-up
New York’s 17th District race
The 2026 general election for New York's 17th Congressional District features Democratic challenger Cait Conley challenging incumbent Republican Michael Lawler in a highly competitive battleground seat north of New York City. The district was carried narrowly by Kamala Harris in 2024, making it one of eight Republican-held seats won by the Democratic presidential candidate. The race hinges on key issues including the cost of living, SALT tax deductions, energy infrastructure (specifically the Indian Point nuclear site), healthcare access, and border policy.
The pulse
updated Oct 31Taxes and Cost of Living
high salienceConley demands the complete elimination of the SALT tax cap and passage of the PRO Act, whereas Lawler promotes quadrupling the SALT cap to $40,000 alongside tax exemptions on Social Security, tips, and overtime.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports SALT repeal and worker relief
Conley focuses on middle-class affordability by advocating for the full elimination of the SALT tax cap established under the 2017 tax law. She also supports passing the PRO Act to strengthen labor unions and expanding access to affordable capital and healthcare for small businesses.
- Eliminate entirely the SALT tax cap instituted in 2017
- Pass the PRO Act to level the playing field between workers and employers
- Expand access to affordable capital and healthcare options for small businesses
“Ending entirely the Trump and Lawler-imposed SALT tax cap, which did not exist for over 100 years until Trump instituted it in 2017 to punish New Yorkers”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports tax cuts and SALT cap increase
Lawler advocates for quadrupling the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 to deliver targeted relief to suburban homeowners. He also highlights his votes for the Working Families Tax Cuts Act, expanding the Child Tax Credit, and eliminating taxes on Social Security, tips, and overtime pay.
- Quadruple the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 for local taxpayers
- Eliminate federal taxes on Social Security income for 88% of local seniors
- Slash taxes on tips and overtime pay for working families
- Oppose New York's proposed congestion pricing commuter tax
“Taking on his own party to quadruple the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 - delivering thousands of dollars in tax relief to over 90% of Hudson Valley residents”
Healthcare and Prescription Drugs
high salienceConley advocates for a public insurance option and expanding Medicare benefits to vision and dental, while Lawler emphasizes extending ACA subsidies and funding safety-net hospitals.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports public option and ACA expansion
Conley advocates creating a public insurance option open to all Americans to drive down healthcare costs across the marketplace. She supports defending the ACA, expanding Medicare to cover vision, dental, and hearing, capping insulin at $35, and allowing Medicare to negotiate more drug prices.
- Establish a public health insurance option available to everyone regardless of age
- Expand Medicare coverage to include vision, dental, and hearing benefits
- Cap insulin prices at $35 for all individuals and enable Medicare drug price negotiations
- Restore federal Medicaid reimbursements for Planned Parenthood clinics
“Allowing everyone to opt in to a public insurance option, regardless of age, expanding coverage, and driving down costs across the marketplace.”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports ACA subsidies and safety-net hospital funding
Lawler highlights forcing a House vote to extend ACA subsidies and prevent premium spikes for policyholders. He supported over $3 billion in funding for New York safety-net hospitals and authored legislation expanding foreign doctor programs, emergency room capacity, and veteran healthcare travel reimbursements.
- Forced a House vote extending Affordable Care Act subsidies to avoid premium increases
- Secured over $3 billion in federal funding for New York safety-net hospitals
- Introduced the Doctors in Our Borders Act (H.R. 1201) to expand foreign physician residency
- Introduced the Streamline Emergency Care Act (H.R. 3980) to reduce ER wait times
“Took on his own party leadership to force a House vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies and prevent premium increases for millions of Americans”
Abortion and Reproductive Rights
high salienceConley calls for codifying Roe v. Wade nationally and restoring Planned Parenthood funding, whereas Lawler opposes a federal abortion ban, supports state-level regulation with standard exceptions, and focuses on IVF tax credits.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports codifying Roe v. Wade
Conley champions passing federal legislation to codify Roe v. Wade, establishing statutory protections for abortion, contraception, and IVF nationwide. She also supports repealing federal restrictions on Medicaid reimbursements for Planned Parenthood.
- Pass federal legislation codifying Roe v. Wade nationwide
- Protect statutory access to abortion, contraception, and IVF treatments
- Repeal federal restrictions on Medicaid reimbursements for Planned Parenthood
“Passing Roe v. Wade into law to restore a woman’s right to make personal healthcare decisions without interference from politicians — including access to abortion, contraception, and IVF.”
Republican Michael Lawler
Opposes federal ban and supports IVF
Lawler opposes a federal ban on abortion, supporting exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother while maintaining that regulation belongs at the state level. He sponsored the IVF Access and Affordability Act to provide tax credits for fertility treatments and supports birth control access.
- Oppose a federal ban on abortion while supporting exceptions for rape, incest, and health of the mother
- Introduced the IVF Access and Affordability Act (H.R. 1878) to establish tax credits for fertility treatments
- Support parental notification requirements for pregnant minors seeking abortions
- Oppose late-term procedures and non-physicians performing abortions
“Opposes a federal ban on abortion, and would never force a rape victim or woman facing a serious health issue to continue a pregnancy against their will”
Energy and Environment
medium salienceConley seeks to transition to renewable energy while opposing the reopening of Indian Point, whereas Lawler actively campaigns to rebuild Indian Point and expand natural gas pipelines.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports clean energy and opposes Indian Point
Conley views climate change as a national security issue, calling for federal investments in wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal energy while firmly opposing attempts to reopen the Indian Point nuclear facility. She also advocates strict regulation of corporate utility fees, PFAS water testing, and rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Invest in local wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal clean energy infrastructure
- Oppose efforts to reopen the closed Indian Point nuclear facility
- Accelerate PFAS removal, testing, and prevention efforts in local water supplies
- Rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement and mandate utility C-suite accountability
“Increasing our energy supply, not by spending years trying to reopen the broken and decrepit Indian Point, but by investing in energy projects that utilize the Hudson Valley’s natural resources, like wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal energy”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports reopening Indian Point and natural gas expansion
Lawler advocates reopening and rebuilding the Indian Point Nuclear Energy Center to lower electricity rates and ensure grid stability. He supports an all-of-the-above energy approach including natural gas expansion, repealing New York's CLCPA mandates, and co-led the NJ-NY Watershed Protection Act.
- Reopen and rebuild the Indian Point Nuclear Energy Center to restore carbon-free baseline power
- Expand natural gas pipeline capacity to lower home heating costs
- Repeal or overhaul New York's CLCPA mandates to protect grid reliability
- Introduced the NJ-NY Watershed Protection Act (H.R. 5762) providing $20 million annually for Hudson River cleanup
“Advocating to reopen and rebuild the Indian Point Nuclear Energy Center, a clean, reliable, carbon-free source that supplied over 25% of New York City's electricity before Albany politicians shut it down.”
Housing Affordability
medium salienceConley emphasizes restricting Wall Street real estate investors and creating zero-down public service loans, while Lawler focuses on cutting development regulations and passing housing supply legislation.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports public service housing loans and builder incentives
Conley proposes creating a public service housing loan program offering zero down payments and no private mortgage insurance for teachers, nurses, and first responders. She also supports cracking down on institutional real estate investors, cutting local zoning red tape, and expanding community block grants.
- Create a public service housing loan program with zero down payment for teachers, nurses, and first responders
- Crack down on corporate landlords and Wall Street hedge funds purchasing residential housing
- Expand federal community development block grants and tax credits for mixed-income developments
- Roll back tariffs on foreign construction materials driving up home building costs
“Creating a public service housing loan program for teachers, nurses, and first responders to expand access to affordable homeownership in the communities they serve.”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports regulatory cuts and housing supply expansion
Lawler introduced the Revitalizing America's Housing Act and Public Service Homeownership Assistance Act to boost housing construction and assist public servants. He helped pass the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act to cut development red tape and introduced the Choice in Affordable Housing Act.
- Introduced the Revitalizing America's Housing Act (H.R. 4856) to eliminate construction barriers
- Introduced the Public Service Homeownership Assistance Act (H.R. 10053) for community workers
- Helped pass the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) into law to lower housing development costs
- Introduced the Choice in Affordable Housing Act (H.R. 1981) to expand rental voucher programs
“Introduced the Revitalizing America’s Housing Act (H.R. 4856), a broad package designed to incentivize construction, reduce regulatory barriers, and expand homeownership opportunities”
Immigration and Border Security
medium salienceConley prioritizes citizenship pathways for undocumented immigrants and ICE oversight, whereas Lawler emphasizes southern border enforcement, anti-fentanyl legislation, and opposing sanctuary policies.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports pathway to citizenship and ICE accountability
Conley advocates comprehensive immigration reform including a pathway to citizenship for undocumented residents and Dreamers, alongside staff increases at USCIS to clear asylum backlogs. She supports reining in ICE through mandatory body cameras and ID uniforms while ending 287(g) police agreements.
- Establish a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and Dreamers
- Require ICE agents to wear body cameras, visible IDs, and prohibit unbadged uniform masks
- Revoke 287(g) agreements that engage local police in federal immigration enforcement
- Modernize USCIS staffing and technology to expedite asylum claims and reunite families
“Creating a pathway to citizenship for the millions of undocumented immigrants and Dreamers who are already part of our communities, paying taxes, and contributing to our economy.”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports border security and Dignity Act reform
Lawler co-sponsored the bipartisan Dignity Act to secure the southern border while updating legal immigration processes. He introduced the Fentanyl Kills Act to prosecute traffickers and led efforts to expand physician immigration programs like CONRAD 30 while opposing sanctuary policies.
- Cosponsored the bipartisan Dignity Act (H.R. 4393) for border security and legal reform
- Introduced the Fentanyl Kills Act (H.R. 5023) charging fentanyl traffickers with attempted murder
- Oppose local sanctuary state and city policies across New York
- Expand CONRAD 30 medical graduate waivers and exempt healthcare workers from H-1B fees
“Cosponsored the Dignity Act (H.R. 4393) - the first serious, bipartisan immigration reform effort in decades - because the current system is broken for everyone”
Crime and Public Safety
medium salienceConley advocates focusing law enforcement strictly on violent criminals and human traffickers, while Lawler campaigns actively to repeal state cashless bail laws and secure federal funding grants for police.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports targeting violent criminals and traffickers
Conley focuses her public safety stance on ensuring federal enforcement concentrates strictly on violent criminals and human traffickers rather than long-standing community members. She supports keeping local law enforcement focused on local safety needs.
- Focus federal enforcement resources on dangerous violent criminals and human traffickers
- Keep local law enforcement focused on community public safety responsibilities
“Keeping the focus of enforcement where it belongs — on dangerous criminals and human traffickers, not on long-standing community members.”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports police funding and repealing cashless bail
Lawler strongly opposes defund-the-police efforts, delivering federal grant funding for local police departments. He advocates repealing New York's cashless bail laws to institute a dangerousness standard and authored the SWAT Act to penalize school swatting threats.
- Delivered tens of millions of dollars in federal funding for local police and first responders
- Advocate repealing cashless bail laws and establishing a dangerousness standard for pretrial detention
- Introduced the SWAT Act (H.R. 5590) to increase criminal penalties for school swatting threats
- Introduced Public Service Retirement Tax Relief Act (H.R. 9750) and Public Housing Rent Reduction for First Responders Act (H.R. 7701)
“Fighting to repeal dangerous cashless bail laws and instill a dangerousness standard when determining bail or pretrial release to prevent dangerous criminals from repeatedly being allowed to walk free and terrorize innocent people”
Education and Student Debt
medium salienceConley opposes voucher programs to protect public school budgets, whereas Lawler co-sponsored federal school choice legislation while both candidates support capping student loan interest rates.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports public school funding and student loan caps
Conley advocates capping federal student loan interest rates and expanding trade skills, CTE, and union apprenticeship programs. She opposes school voucher initiatives that redirect public funds and advocates modernizing aging school buildings while fully funding Head Start and school lunches.
- Cap interest rates on federal student loans to prevent long-term debt accumulation
- Expand BOCES, CTE, and union-partnered apprenticeship programs
- Oppose school voucher programs that strip funding from public schools
- Modernize aging public school infrastructure and fully fund Head Start and lunch programs
“Investing in our public schools by modernizing aging school infrastructure, opposing voucher programs that strip funding from our public education system, fully funding lunch programs for all students who qualify, and increasing funding for early childhood education programs like Head Start.”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports parental rights, school choice, and student loan caps
Lawler co-sponsored the Educational Choice for Children Act to support private, charter, and religious school choice options. He introduced the Affordable Loans for Students Act to cap federal student loan interest at 2% and the Professional Student Degree Act for graduate degrees.
- Cosponsored the Educational Choice for Children Act (H.R. 833) supporting parental school choice
- Introduced the Affordable Loans for Students Act (H.R. 2003) capping federal student loan interest at 2%
- Introduced the Professional Student Degree Act (H.R. 6718) raising graduate loan caps for nursing and teaching
- Protect parental rights regarding school curricula while maintaining honest history education
“Cosponsored the Educational Choice for Children Act (H.R. 833) to give parents access to the best educational options for their child - public, private, charter, homeschooling, or religious”
Foreign Policy and National Security
medium salienceConley emphasizes diplomatic engagement with Iran and restoring foreign aid alongside a two-state solution, while Lawler leads legislative sanctions on Iranian oil and promotes Abraham Accords expansion.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports Iran diplomacy, Ukraine aid, and two-state solution
Drawing on her military service, Conley advocates pursuing nuclear diplomacy with Iran, restoring USAID foreign aid, and supporting Ukraine against Russian invasion. She supports strong congressional oversight on executive military actions and a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine.
- Pursue diplomacy with Iran to prevent nuclear weapon acquisition and avoid escalation
- Restore USAID funding capacity to maintain foreign aid stability
- Recommit military and economic support for Ukraine against Russian aggression
- Support a two-state solution ensuring Israeli security and Palestinian self-determination
“Supporting a two-state solution as the only viable long-term path to ensure Israel remains a secure, democratic Jewish state while Palestinians achieve legitimate aspirations for self-determination.”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports Iran sanctions, Israel, and Abraham Accords
As Middle East Subcommittee Chairman, Lawler passed the SHIP Act and Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act to target Iranian oil exports. He authored the Special Envoy for the Abraham Accords Act, co-sponsored the Antisemitism Awareness Act, and supported military aid for Ukraine.
- Chairs Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa
- Passed the SHIP Act and Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act into law targeting Iranian oil trade
- Passed the Special Envoy for the Abraham Accords Act into law to foster Israel-Arab normalization
- Introduced the Antisemitism Awareness Act (H.R. 1007) and IGO Anti-Boycott Act (H.R. 3016)
- Supported military defense funding for Ukraine against Russia
“Introduced and passed into law multiple pieces of legislation to combat the illicit Iranian oil trade. This includes the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum Act (SHIP Act) and Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act.”
Government Ethics and Election Integrity
medium salienceConley advocates banning congressional stock trading and overturning Citizens United, whereas Lawler signed a term limits pledge and proposes 48-hour campaign donation disclosures.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports stock trading bans, term limits, and CISA security
Based on her executive work at CISA, Conley advocates restoring federal election security resources and passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. She supports banning congressional stock trading, enacting term limits, overturning Citizens United, and prohibiting post-office lobbying.
- Ban members of Congress from trading stocks while holding office
- Enact congressional term limits and overturn Citizens United
- Restore CISA's election security mission and pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act
- Reinstate the Foreign Malign Influence Center and FBI Foreign Influence Task Force
- Ban former elected officials from working as corporate lobbyists
“Banning members of Congress from trading stocks while in office, and requiring personal divestment from holdings.”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports term limits and 48-hour donation reporting
Lawler signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge and supports a constitutional amendment for congressional term limits. He advocates requiring all campaign contributions to be publicly reported within 48 hours to ensure financial transparency.
- Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge supporting a constitutional amendment
- Advocate requiring all campaign contributions to be reported within 48 hours of receipt
- Support prudent use of congressional investigative powers for administrative transparency
“I think all campaign donations should have to be reported within 48 hours of receipt - folks need to show who’s funding their campaigns directly.”
Veterans Affairs
low salienceConley focuses on direct federal funding for local VA facilities like Montrose, while Lawler highlights specific legislation expanding travel reimbursements and toxic exposure care.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports VA system funding and local medical facilities
As a decorated 16-year combat veteran, Conley supports strengthening the VA system through direct federal investments, focusing on maintaining full funding and resource support for local medical centers like Montrose VA.
- Strengthen the federal VA system through robust funding
- Ensure full support and funding for local facilities like the Montrose VA Medical Center
“Investing in veterans’ care by strengthening the VA system so facilities like the Montrose VA Medical Center get the funding and support they need.”
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports HEAL Act and VET PFAS Act
Lawler introduced the HEAL Act to reduce healthcare travel costs for veterans by eliminating deductibles and increasing mileage reimbursement rates. He also authored the VET PFAS Act to address toxic chemical exposure among military families.
- Introduced the HEAL Act (H.R. 5277) to eliminate VA travel deductibles and increase mileage reimbursements
- Introduced the VET PFAS Act to address healthcare needs from toxic chemical exposure
- Supported expanding veteran housing options and suicide prevention support programs
“Introduced the HEAL Act (H.R. 5277) to make veterans' healthcare more affordable by eliminating travel deductibles, increasing mileage reimbursement rates, and funding transportation options—helping patients access care without added financial burden”
Gun Policy
low salienceConley supports broad gun safety legislation, while Lawler focuses on protecting Second Amendment rights alongside targeted bills extending undetectable firearm bans and safe storage incentives.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports gun safety legislation
Conley supports common-sense gun safety measures to protect communities, grounding her position in her national security and law enforcement background.
- Support federal gun safety regulations to reduce community gun violence
Republican Michael Lawler
Supports Undetectable Firearms Act and safe storage incentives
Lawler supports Second Amendment rights while leading efforts to extend the Undetectable Firearms Act. He introduced the Prevent Family Fire Act to incentivize safe storage, supports due-process red flag laws, and co-sponsored background check legislation.
- Successfully led efforts to extend the bipartisan Undetectable Firearms Act
- Introduced the Prevent Family Fire Act (H.R. 169) to offer tax incentives for safe firearm storage
- Cosponsored the Bipartisan Background Checks Act (H.R. 18)
- Support red flag laws that include strict due process protections
“Successfully led the fight to extend the bipartisan Undetectable Firearms Act – originally signed by President Reagan – making it harder to sneak firearms past metal detectors in stadiums, arenas, and public buildings”
Artificial Intelligence and Technology
low salienceConley offers a detailed platform regulating AI privacy, data center utility impacts, and workforce retraining, whereas Lawler has no documented position in the sources.
Democratic Cait Conley
Supports AI guardrails, data privacy, and data center rules
Drawing on her cybersecurity background at CISA, Conley proposes guardrails on AI, including age verification, parental consent, and data privacy laws. She advocates regulating data centers to prevent local utility rate spikes and water depletion while funding retraining programs.
- Enact consumer data privacy legislation and age verification standards for AI tools
- Regulate data centers to prevent utility rate increases and water depletion in local communities
- Invest in workforce retraining programs to mitigate AI job displacement
- Set federal transparency standards and human oversight rules for agency AI use
“Regulating Data Centers to guarantee they pay their fair share through binding agreements that protect residents from utility rate hikes and harmful impacts to our water supply”
What people say back
None of this is our opinion. Every number below counts replies real people wrote under Cait Conley's and Michael Lawler's own posts.
1,554 replies from 928 accounts, sampled across both campaigns' posts · 12 documented issues · the ten loudest accounts wrote 17% of the replies
61%
of this conversation is about something neither campaign lists as an issue.
954 of 1,554 replies land off the issue map — the single largest block in the race, larger than any documented topic.
2026 Midterms · Street level
What the candidates post about
Each candidate's own posts, by topic. Bars are that candidate's share of their own classified posts; the figure beside each bar is the count. A dot means they document no position on the topic at all.
Classification is partial, so these are counts of classified posts — never shares of everything a candidate posted.
2026 Midterms · Street level
What their audiences talk about
Replies under each candidate's posts, same topics, same order. Bars are that side's share of their own replies, because the two audiences are different sizes.
Split by whose thread a reply landed under — an attribute of the post, not a judgement about the reply.
Newsletter
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Which issues Cait Conley and Michael Lawler are gaining ground on, what moved since last week, and what both of them are still ignoring. We email it; we don't publish it. Free until election day.
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For campaigns
You are seeing a fraction of what we measured.
We scored 1,554 replies in New York — 17th District. This page shows you the topic counts. Pluribus shows you whose message is actually landing, which replies are still winnable, how hostile your own threads are, and what people actually wrote.
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Prediction markets 2
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NY-17 House Election Winner
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