Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · New York Toss-up

New York — 17th District

Portrait of Michael Lawler

Republican / Conservative Party

Michael Lawler

In New York's 17th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Michael Lawler faces Democratic challenger Cait Conley in a highly competitive battleground seat. The district, which covers the Hudson Valley, was won by Kamala Harris in 2024, making it one of eight Republican-held seats in the nation carried by the Democratic presidential candidate. Major forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up, with both candidates highlighting moderation, public service, and local economic relief.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
56.5%
Republicans
40.5%
Kalshi ↗
Cait Conley
61.0%
Michael Lawler
36.0%

All markets →

01

Tax Policy and Cost of Living

high salience

Conley advocates for fully repealing the federal SALT cap and passing pro-worker legislation, while Lawler advocates quadrupling the SALT cap to $40,000 and eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security income.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports ending SALT cap and pro-worker growth

Conley focuses on lowering the cost of living for Hudson Valley families by completely repealing the SALT tax cap. She supports pro-worker policies like the PRO Act and investments in trade skills, job retraining, and small business support.

  • End the SALT tax cap entirely
  • Pass the PRO Act and pro-worker legislation
  • Expand access to affordable capital for small businesses
  • Invest in trade skills and workforce retraining programs

“ending entirely the Trump and Lawler-imposed SALT tax cap, which did not exist for over 100 years until Trump instituted it in 2017”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports tax cuts and SALT deduction increases

Lawler emphasizes tax relief for working families, seniors, and workers to address affordability. He champions quadrupling the SALT deduction cap to $40,000, eliminating federal taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security income, and expanding the Child Tax Credit.

  • Quadruple the SALT deduction cap to $40,000
  • Eliminate federal taxes on Social Security income for 88% of seniors
  • Slash taxes on tips and overtime pay for workers
  • Expand the Child Tax Credit to $2,200
  • Led opposition to New York's congestion pricing plan

“Taking on his own party to quadruple the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 – delivering thousands of dollars in tax relief to over 90% of Hudson Valley residents”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Conley seeks to expand federal healthcare programs through a public option and ACA protections, whereas Lawler focuses on targeted market reforms, ACA subsidy extensions, and workforce expansion bills.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports public insurance option and ACA expansion

Conley advocates creating a public insurance option open to all Americans to expand coverage and lower marketplace premiums. She also supports defending the ACA, expanding Medicare to cover vision, dental, and hearing, capping insulin costs at $35, and allowing Medicare drug price negotiations.

  • Create a public health insurance option available to everyone regardless of age
  • Defend the ACA and Medicaid from funding cuts
  • Expand Medicare coverage to include vision, dental, and hearing
  • Cap insulin prices at $35 for all Americans
  • Allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices

“Allowing everyone to opt in to a public insurance option, regardless of age, expanding coverage, and driving down costs across the marketplace.”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports targeted healthcare market and access reforms

Lawler highlights crossing party lines to vote on extending ACA subsidies and preventing premium spikes. His platform focuses on expanding doctor supply in rural areas, lowering emergency room wait times, and improving veterans' healthcare access.

  • Forced a House vote to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies
  • Introduced the HEAL Act (H.R. 5277) to eliminate veterans' travel deductibles
  • Introduced the Doctors in Our Borders Act (H.R. 1201) to expand doctor supply
  • Introduced the Streamline Emergency Care Act (H.R. 3980) to lower ER wait times
  • Secured over $3 billion for New York hospitals serving vulnerable populations

“Took on his own party leadership to force a House vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies and prevent premium increases for millions of Americans”

03

Housing Affordability

high salience

Conley focuses on restricting institutional real estate investors and creating specialized zero-down public service loan programs, while Lawler champions federal housing deregulation to boost broad construction supply.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports public servant loans and wall street regulations

Conley proposes a public service housing loan program with no down payment or private mortgage insurance for teachers, nurses, and first responders. She advocates cracking down on Wall Street hedge funds buying homes, cutting restrictive zoning, and expanding federal block grants.

  • Establish a zero-down-payment public service housing loan program for first responders and educators
  • Cut restrictive zoning rules and red tape slowing affordable housing construction
  • Expand federal community block grants and tax credits for mixed-income projects
  • Crack down on corporate landlords and hedge funds buying local residential housing

“Creating a public service housing loan program for teachers, nurses, and first responders to expand access to affordable homeownership in the communities they serve.”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports housing supply deregulation and homeownership legislation

Lawler emphasizes boosting private housing construction by reducing federal regulatory barriers and expanding rental vouchers. He introduced the Revitalizing America's Housing Act, the Public Service Homeownership Assistance Act, and co-authored the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act.

  • Introduced the Revitalizing America’s Housing Act (H.R. 4856)
  • Helped pass the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) into law
  • Introduced the Public Service Homeownership Assistance Act (H.R. 10053)
  • Introduced the Choice in Affordable Housing Act (H.R. 1981) to expand rental vouchers

“Introduced the Revitalizing America’s Housing Act (H.R. 4856), a broad package designed to incentivize construction, reduce regulatory barriers, and expand homeownership opportunities”

04

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

high salience

Conley demands federal statutory protection for abortion rights under Roe v. Wade, whereas Lawler opposes a federal abortion ban while supporting parental notification rules and protections for IVF.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports codifying Roe v. Wade into law

Conley advocates for codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law to guarantee women's reproductive freedom nationwide. She supports protecting federal access to abortion, contraception, and IVF, while restoring federal Medicaid reimbursements to Planned Parenthood clinics.

  • Codify Roe v. Wade into federal law
  • Protect access to abortion, contraception, and IVF treatments
  • Repeal federal legislation restricting Medicaid reimbursements for Planned Parenthood clinics

“Passing Roe v. Wade into law to restore a woman’s right to make personal healthcare decisions without interference from politicians”

Republican Michael Lawler

Opposes federal ban and protects IVF access

Lawler states he opposes a federal abortion ban and supports exceptions for rape, incest, and protecting the mother's life. He broke with party leadership to protect access to IVF, authored fertility tax credit legislation, and supports parental notification laws for minors seeking abortions.

  • Opposes a federal abortion ban
  • Supports exceptions for rape, incest, and serious health risks to the mother
  • Introduced the IVF Access and Affordability Act (H.R. 1878) for tax credits
  • Supports parental notification laws for pregnant minors
  • Opposes late-term and sex-selection abortions

“Opposes a federal ban on abortion”

05

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

Conley supports establishing pathways to citizenship and restricting ICE practices, whereas Lawler prioritizes physical border security, ending sanctuary laws, and charging fentanyl traffickers with attempted murder.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports pathway to citizenship and ICE oversight

Conley advocates for comprehensive immigration reform that provides a pathway to citizenship for undocumented residents and Dreamers while modernizing asylum processing. She supports strict accountability for federal border agencies, including body cameras for ICE agents and ending local police 287(g) agreements.

  • Create a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and Dreamers
  • Require ICE agents to wear body cameras, visible IDs, and prohibit masked agents
  • Revoke 287(g) agreements to keep local police focused on community safety
  • Invest in technology and staffing at USCIS to expedite asylum processing

“Creating a pathway to citizenship for the millions of undocumented immigrants and Dreamers who are already part of our communities”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports strict border security and Dignity Act

Lawler prioritizes securing the southern border, ending sanctuary state policies, and combating illicit drug flows. He cosponsored the bipartisan Dignity Act to reform the immigration system and introduced legislation to charge fentanyl traffickers with attempted murder.

  • Cosponsored the bipartisan Dignity Act (H.R. 4393) for border security and reform
  • Introduced the Fentanyl Kills Act (H.R. 5023) charging traffickers with attempted murder
  • Opposes sanctuary state, county, and city policies
  • Supports expanding legal healthcare workforce visas like CONRAD 30

“Cosponsored the Dignity Act – the first serious, bipartisan immigration reform effort in decades”

06

Energy and Utilities

medium salience

Conley supports expanding renewable energy while strictly opposing reopening Indian Point, whereas Lawler actively fights to reopen Indian Point nuclear plant and expand natural gas infrastructure.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports renewable energy investments and utility accountability

Conley advocates for clean energy investments in wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal power to lower electricity bills. She strongly opposes efforts to reopen the Indian Point nuclear facility and supports forcing utility companies to absorb modernization costs rather than passing them to consumers.

  • Invest in renewable energy projects like solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal
  • Oppose reopening the Indian Point Nuclear Energy Center
  • Hold corporate utilities accountable by limiting ratepayer pass-through costs
  • Cut red tape to accelerate clean energy infrastructure deployment

“Lowering electric bills by taking on corporate utility giants and forcing greater accountability from electrical companies”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports reopening Indian Point and all-of-the-above energy

Lawler advocates reopening the Indian Point Nuclear Energy Center to restore reliable baseload power and drive down electricity costs. He champions an all-of-the-above energy strategy, opposes state climate mandates, and seeks to expand natural gas infrastructure.

  • Advocate reopening and rebuilding the Indian Point Nuclear Energy Center
  • Support an all-of-the-above strategy including natural gas, nuclear, and renewables
  • Call for the repeal or overhaul of New York's CLCPA energy mandates
  • Oppose top-down electric building mandates and forced fuel transition timelines

“Advocating to reopen and rebuild the Indian Point Nuclear Energy Center, a clean, reliable, carbon-free source”

07

Public Safety and Crime

medium salience

Conley focuses law enforcement priorities on violent crime while revoking immigration coordination contracts, whereas Lawler leads efforts to repeal New York's cashless bail laws and expand police funding.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports targeted law enforcement and community policing

Conley advocates focusing law enforcement resources on violent criminals and human traffickers. She supports ending 287(g) agreements so local police can concentrate on local safety rather than federal civil immigration enforcement.

  • Keep criminal enforcement focused on dangerous violent criminals and human traffickers
  • Revoke 287(g) agreements to keep local police focused on community safety

“Keeping the focus of enforcement where it belongs — on dangerous criminals and human traffickers, not on long-standing community members.”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports police funding and repealing cashless bail

Lawler is heavily endorsed by law enforcement unions and campaigns on repealing New York's cashless bail laws. He advocates establishing judicial discretion on dangerousness, penalizing swatting threats against schools, and delivering federal grants to local police.

  • Repeal cashless bail laws and introduce a dangerousness standard for pretrial detention
  • Introduced the SWAT Act (H.R. 5590) to increase penalties for school swatting threats
  • Introduced the Public Service Retirement Tax Relief Act (H.R. 9750) for first responder pensions
  • Delivered millions in federal funding for Rockland County and Hudson Valley police departments

“Fighting to repeal dangerous cashless bail laws and instill a dangerousness standard when determining bail or pretrial release”

08

Government Reform and Ethics

medium salience

Conley advocates banning congressional stock trading and overturning Citizens United, while Lawler favors 48-hour donation reporting and congressional term limits.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports congressional stock ban and campaign finance reform

Conley proposes ethical reforms aimed at reducing political corruption and dark money in government. She advocates banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks, overturning Citizens United, implementing congressional term limits, and banning former members from lobbying.

  • Ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks while in office
  • Overturn Citizens United to eliminate dark money in elections
  • Enact federal congressional term limits
  • Ban former elected officials from becoming corporate lobbyists

“Banning members of Congress from trading stocks while in office, and requiring personal divestment from holdings.”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports 48-hour disclosure and congressional term limits

Lawler signed the U.S. Term Limits pledge and champions enhanced financial transparency for political campaigns. He advocates requiring all campaign contributions to be reported within 48 hours and using congressional oversight to target federal spending waste.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits pledge
  • Supports mandatory 48-hour disclosure for all campaign political contributions
  • Supported federal investigations into shell companies and spending waste
  • Voted for statutory 1% caps on annual federal spending growth

“I think all campaign donations should have to be reported within 48 hours of receipt - folks need to show who’s funding their campaigns directly.”

09

Democracy and Election Security

medium salience

Conley prioritizes federal legislation like the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and restoring CISA election programs, while Lawler emphasizes his bipartisan rating and nonpartisan governance style.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports John Lewis Voting Rights Act and CISA mission

Drawing on her background as a senior executive at CISA, Conley advocates for strengthening federal infrastructure against election interference. She supports passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, protecting election workers from intimidation, and expanding anti-foreign-influence task forces.

  • Restore CISA's election infrastructure security mission and federal funding
  • Pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act into federal law
  • Reinstate the Foreign Malign Influence Center and FBI Foreign Influence Task Force
  • Protect local election officials from politically motivated harassment and prosecution

“Restoring CISA’s election security mission and rebuilding the federal resources that help state and local officials defend against cyberattacks and foreign interference.”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports nonpartisan governance and institutional integrity

Lawler highlights his ranking as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress who appeals to independent voters. He supports protecting democratic institutions through pragmatic, nonpartisan policymaking.

  • Consistently highlighted as one of the most bipartisan members of the U.S. House
  • Pledges moderate governance appealing to independent and Democratic voters

“Consistently rated as one of the most bipartisan and effective Members of Congress by independent, non-partisan observers”

10

Education

medium salience

Conley opposes school voucher programs and focuses on public school funding, whereas Lawler cosponsored federal school choice legislation allowing funds for private and religious options.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports public school funding and capping loan interest

Conley advocates expanding federal investments in public education, Head Start, and modernized school facilities while opposing school voucher programs. She proposes capping student loan interest rates and expanding BOCES, CTE, and apprenticeship partnerships.

  • Oppose school voucher programs that divert funding from public education
  • Cap interest rates on federal student loans
  • Expand BOCES, Career & Technical Education (CTE), and union apprenticeship programs
  • Modernize aging school infrastructure and fully fund Head Start and lunch programs

“Capping interest rates on federal student loans so people aren’t paying off $200,000 on a $50,000 loan 20 years later.”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports parental rights and educational choice

Lawler advocates for parental rights in school curricula and expanding educational choice across public, private, charter, and religious schools. He cosponsored the Educational Choice for Children Act, introduced a 2% cap on student loan interest rates, and opposed state cuts to local school foundation aid.

  • Cosponsored the Educational Choice for Children Act (H.R. 833) to expand school choice options
  • Introduced the Affordable Loans for Students Act (H.R. 2003) capping loan interest at 2%
  • Introduced the Professional Student Degree Act (H.R. 6718) to raise graduate loan caps
  • Opposed New York state proposals cutting foundation aid to local school districts
  • Supports parental rights regarding age-appropriate school curricula

“Cosponsored legislation that would give parents access to the best educational options for their child – public, private, charter, homeschooling, or religious”

11

Environment and Water Quality

medium salience

Conley favors strict corporate environmental standards and rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, while Lawler advocates for voluntary agricultural stewardship incentives and funding for Hudson River watershed protection.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports strict standards and toxic contamination cleanup

Conley treats climate change as a national security issue, advocating for clean energy expansion and rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement. She focuses locally on testing, removing, and preventing toxic PFAS contamination in drinking water.

  • Increase testing, removal, and cleanup efforts for toxic PFAS contamination in drinking water
  • Enforce strict environmental standards on corporate polluters
  • Urge the federal government to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement
  • Expand Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) grant programs

“Addressing PFAS and other toxic contamination in our water supply by increasing testing, accelerating cleanup, and holding the corporations responsible”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports Hudson River funding and voluntary conservation

Lawler emphasizes clean water and conservation through pragmatic legislation without imposing heavy mandates. He co-led the NJ-NY Watershed Protection Act to fund Hudson River cleanups, co-chairs the Extreme Heat Caucus, and introduced voluntary agricultural emission reduction bills.

  • Introduced the NJ-NY Watershed Protection Act (H.R. 5762) providing $20 million annually for the Hudson River
  • Serves as Republican Co-Chairman of the Extreme Heat Caucus
  • Supported New York’s $4 billion Environmental Bond Act
  • Introduced the CROP for Farming Act (H.R. 4296) for voluntary agricultural emission reductions

“Co-led the NJ-NY Watershed Protection Act, establishing an annual $20 million fund to keep the Hudson River clean for generations to come.”

12

Foreign Policy and Defense

medium salience

Conley emphasizes diplomatic engagement, USAID funding, and a two-state solution, whereas Lawler focuses on Middle East Subcommittee leadership, tightening Iranian oil sanctions, and defense spending.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports diplomacy, two-state solution, and Ukraine aid

Drawing on her 16 years as an Army combat veteran, Conley advocates for global diplomacy and peace. She supports a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, continued aid to Ukraine against Russian aggression, diplomacy with Iran, and restoring USAID foreign assistance.

  • Support a two-state solution to guarantee Israel's security and Palestinian self-determination
  • Maintain U.S. military support for Ukraine against Russian aggression
  • Pursue diplomacy to end military escalation and prevent a nuclear Iran
  • Restore federal USAID funding capacity

“Supporting a two-state solution as the only viable long-term path to ensure Israel remains a secure, democratic Jewish state while Palestinians achieve legitimate aspirations for self-determination.”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports peace through strength, Israel, and sanctions

Lawler champions a 'peace through strength' doctrine, robust defense funding, and strong support for Israel. As Middle East Subcommittee Chairman, he authored the SHIP Act to restrict Iranian oil trade, passed the Special Envoy for the Abraham Accords Act, and authored campus antisemitism legislation.

  • Serves as Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa
  • Passed the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) Act and Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act
  • Passed the Special Envoy for the Abraham Accords Act into law
  • Introduced the bipartisan Antisemitism Awareness Act (H.R. 1007)
  • Supported defense aid for Ukraine and consistently voted for the NDAA

“Serves as the House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa Chairman to ensure support for Israel is front and center”

13

Gun Safety and Second Amendment

low salience

Conley supports broad federal gun safety policies, whereas Lawler balances Second Amendment rights with specific measures like the Undetectable Firearms Act and safe storage tax incentives.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports federal gun safety measures

Conley supports common-sense gun safety measures to prevent gun violence and protect local communities. Her platform aligns with broader Democratic efforts to strengthen federal gun control.

  • Supports federal gun safety legislation and curbing illegal firearms in local communities

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports Second Amendment and sensible gun safety laws

Lawler supports constitutional Second Amendment rights alongside targeted gun safety measures. He led the fight to extend the bipartisan Undetectable Firearms Act, introduced safe storage incentives, supports red flag laws with due process, and cosponsored bipartisan background checks.

  • Led extension of the bipartisan Undetectable Firearms Act
  • Introduced the Prevent Family Fire Act (H.R. 169) to incentivize firearm safe storage
  • Cosponsored the Bipartisan Background Checks Act (H.R. 18)
  • Supports red flag laws that guarantee full individual due process
  • Supports funding panic alarms and school resource officers

“Successfully led the fight to extend the bipartisan Undetectable Firearms Act – originally signed by President Reagan – making it harder to sneak firearms past metal detectors”

14

Veterans Affairs

low salience

Conley emphasizes direct VA facility funding such as the Montrose VA Medical Center, while Lawler introduced legislative packages expanding veteran travel reimbursements and toxic exposure care.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports expanding VA healthcare funding

As a decorated Army combat veteran, Conley focuses on protecting and strengthening the VA healthcare system. She pledges to secure full federal funding and support for local facilities like the Montrose VA Medical Center.

  • Strengthen the VA system to ensure veterans receive necessary health services
  • Protect federal funding for regional veteran healthcare facilities like the Montrose VA Medical Center

“Investing in veterans’ care by strengthening the VA system so facilities like the Montrose VA Medical Center get the funding and support they need.”

Republican Michael Lawler

Supports HEAL Act and veteran healthcare access

Lawler introduced the HEAL Act to eliminate travel deductibles and increase mileage reimbursements for veterans traveling to VA facilities. He also advanced the VET PFAS Act, introduced the Housing for Heroes Act, and supported state Dwyer Peer-to-Peer veteran programs.

  • Introduced the HEAL Act (H.R. 5277) to eliminate travel deductibles and boost VA travel reimbursements
  • Introduced the VET PFAS Act addressing toxic exposure for military families
  • Introduced the Housing for Heroes Act (H.R. 7503) for affordable housing
  • Supported funding for the Joseph P. Dwyer Peer to Peer veteran support program

“Introduced the HEAL Act (H.R. 5277) to make veterans' healthcare more affordable by eliminating travel deductibles, increasing mileage reimbursement rates, and funding transportation options”

15

Artificial Intelligence and Technology

low salience

Conley advocates for strict federal AI safety guardrails, data center regulations, and workforce retraining, whereas Lawler does not detail an AI policy platform in the provided sources.

Democratic Cait Conley

Supports federal AI safety guardrails and privacy laws

Conley leverages her cybersecurity background to propose federal guardrails on AI technology. She advocates for age verification rules to protect children, consumer data privacy laws, regulating data center utility impacts, and workforce retraining for AI-driven job displacement.

  • Enact strict age verification and parental consent standards for AI tools
  • Pass federal consumer data privacy legislation
  • Regulate data center impacts on local water supplies and utility rate hikes
  • Invest in workforce retraining programs to prepare for AI job displacement

“Protecting our kids with stricter age verification and parental consent standards for AI tools.”

Republican Michael Lawler No documented position in our sources

What people say back

None of this is our opinion. Every number below counts replies real people wrote under Cait Conley's and Michael Lawler's own posts.

1,554 replies from 928 accounts, sampled across both campaigns' posts · 12 documented issues · the ten loudest accounts wrote 17% of the replies

61%

of this conversation is about something neither campaign lists as an issue.

954 of 1,554 replies land off the issue map — the single largest block in the race, larger than any documented topic.

2026 Midterms · Street level

What the candidates post about

Each candidate's own posts, by topic. Bars are that candidate's share of their own classified posts; the figure beside each bar is the count. A dot means they document no position on the topic at all.

CAIT CONLEY MICHAEL LAWLER SHARE OF THEIR POSTS SHARE OF THEIR POSTS Foreign policy & defense 4 3 Immigration & border security 3 3 Democracy & elections 12 6 Healthcare 7 7 Economy & cost of living 7 2 Artificial Intelligence and Te… · · Energy & environment 3 1 Abortion & reproductive rights 1 1 Veterans 2 1 Housing 3 1
pluribus / 2026election.com 24 of 73 posts classified for Cait Conley · 18 of 87 for Michael Lawler pilot corpus

Classification is partial, so these are counts of classified posts — never shares of everything a candidate posted.

2026 Midterms · Street level

What their audiences talk about

Replies under each candidate's posts, same topics, same order. Bars are that side's share of their own replies, because the two audiences are different sizes.

CAIT CONLEY MICHAEL LAWLER SHARE OF THEIR REPLIES SHARE OF THEIR REPLIES Foreign policy & defense 23 340 Immigration & border security 47 36 Democracy & elections 11 55 Healthcare 7 25 Economy & cost of living 10 7 Artificial Intelligence and Te… 9 1 Energy & environment 8 0 Abortion & reproductive rights 6 0 Veterans 0 6 Housing 2 2 Crime & public safety 3 1
pluribus / 2026election.com 406 replies under Cait Conley · 1,148 under Michael Lawler pilot corpus

Split by whose thread a reply landed under — an attribute of the post, not a judgement about the reply.

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

NY-17 House Election Winner

56.5% Democrats
40.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 56.5REPUBLICANS 40.5

Kalshi ↗

NY-17 House winner?

61.0% Cait Conley
36.0% Michael Lawler
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16CONLEY 61.0LAWLER 36.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.