Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Nevada Lean D

Nevada — 1st District

Nevada's 1st Congressional District 2026 general election features six-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Dina Titus facing Republican State Senator Carrie Buck, along with two non-party candidates. The race hinges primarily on cost-of-living concerns, federal taxation of tip income, public safety, education reform, and housing affordability in the Las Vegas Valley. Titus emphasizes protecting working families, expanding healthcare, opposing Social Security privatization, and curbing corporate home ownership, while Buck campaigns on tax exemptions for tips and overtime, parental rights in education, fully funding police, and securing the southern border. Race forecasters rate the general election as Likely Democratic (Cook Political Report, DDHQ/The Hill, Sabato's Crystal Ball) or Lean Democratic (Inside Elections).

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
94.5%
Republicans
5.2%
Kalshi ↗
Dina Titus
93.0%
Carrie Buck
6.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Titus attributes cost-of-living increases to global supply disruptions and advocates consumer protections, whereas Buck attributes inflation to federal overspending and regulatory burdens.

Democratic Dina Titus

Supports targeting gas prices and corporate gouging

Titus focuses her campaign on affordability and lowering daily costs for Las Vegas families. She links rising inflation and fuel prices directly to global oil supply disruptions and argues for targeted federal relief to protect consumer purchasing power.

  • Campaigning on affordability and inflation reduction for Las Vegas households
  • Attributes gas price spikes directly to global oil supply disruptions
  • Voted against the 2025 federal budget reconciliation bill H.R. 1

“When conflict disrupts oil supply, it drives up energy prices, and this is not just at the pump. We have seen it in Las Vegas – in just one month, the price of gas has gone up $1 per gallon. These high oil prices push inflation higher, slow economic growth and directly feed into affordability for families.”

Republican Carrie Buck

Supports cutting spending and economic deregulation

Buck focuses on curbing soaring inflation and housing costs by reducing federal spending and reforming state regulatory burdens. She pledges to work with President Trump to cut wasteful government expenditures and save Nevada families money.

  • Pledges to hold D.C. accountable for taxpayer spending to curb inflation
  • Sponsored state legislation reforming cosmetologist licensing to reduce regulatory burdens
  • Introduced legislation to reform the Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation for faster service
02

Taxes and Tip Earnings

high salience

Titus conditions tip tax elimination on raising the minimum wage for non-tip workers, while Buck backs immediate tax relief on both tips and overtime in line with Trump's platform.

Democratic Dina Titus

Supports eliminating tip tax alongside wage increases

Titus supports fully eliminating taxes on tips provided the reform is paired with a federal minimum wage increase for non-tip earners. She criticizes Republican tax proposals as temporary relief bundled with cuts to social programs.

  • Advocates permanent elimination of taxes on tip income combined with minimum wage hikes
  • Criticizes Republican reconciliation proposals for cutting Medicaid, student loans, food assistance, and clean energy credits
  • Voted Nay on the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1)

“I support a real elimination of tax on tips along with an increase in the minimum wage for non-tip earners. Not the half-hearted, very limited, temporary relief like Trump's proposal in the 2,000-page big beautiful bill that Carrie Buck supports — which also cuts food assistance, student loans, Medicaid and renewable energy credits.”

Republican Carrie Buck

Supports eliminating taxes on tips and overtime

Buck champions eliminating federal taxes on tip income and overtime pay to reward hard work and support hospitality workers. She pledges to partner with President Trump to enact tax cuts for working families.

  • Pledges to pass federal legislation ensuring tips and overtime earnings are never taxed
  • Aligns with President Trump's federal tax relief initiatives for service workers
  • Frames tax exemptions on tips as vital relief for Nevada's hospitality workforce

“No Tax on Tips and Overtime made one thing clear: we can do better. When I get to Congress, I’ll work with President Trump to advance policies that reward hard work, not punish it. Nevada families deserve that.”

03

Housing Affordability

medium salience

Titus favors legislative caps and penalties on corporate residential home buyers, while Buck advocates reducing inflation and regulatory barriers to lower home construction costs.

Democratic Dina Titus

Supports capping corporate ownership of residential housing

Titus views homeownership as a personal right rather than a corporate investment. She has introduced federal legislation placing caps and financial penalties on institutional investors holding residential properties for extended periods.

  • Introduced legislation to cap corporate purchases of single-family homes
  • Proposes financial penalties for corporations holding residential properties long-term
  • Frames housing affordability as a consumer protection and personal ownership issue

“put some caps on that and also some penalties if you hold those properties for too long, because it shouldn't be a corporate issue. It should be a personal issue.”

Republican Carrie Buck

Supports cutting regulations to lower housing costs

Buck highlights rising housing costs and declining homeownership in Southern Nevada. She advocates reducing construction regulations and curbing inflation to lower building costs and make housing affordable.

  • Identifies soaring inflation and slow building permit regulations as main drivers of the housing crisis
  • Seeks opportunities to lower homeownership costs for Nevada families
  • Opposes excessive building regulations that delay residential construction projects
04

Election Integrity and Voting Rules

low salience

Titus voted against federal citizenship verification rules for voting, while Buck supports mandatory voter ID laws.

Democratic Dina Titus

Opposes federal voter citizenship proof requirements

Titus voted against federal legislation requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections, opposing added voting restrictions.

  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) in April 2025 requiring proof of citizenship for federal voter registration

Republican Carrie Buck

Supports mandatory voter ID requirements

Buck supports mandatory photo voter ID requirements for elections, framing it as an essential step to ensure election integrity.

  • Supports Nevada voter ID ballot initiatives
  • Advocates mandatory voter identification to safeguard election integrity

“The State of Nevada currently has a ballot initiative underway regarding Voter ID in elections. Although this measure has been voted on numerous times in our state, I believe that voter ID is a necessary requirement in the interest of election integrity.”

05

Education and Parental Rights

high salience

Buck aggressively promotes parental rights, state receivership for failing schools, and expanded school choice vouchers, whereas Titus has no documented education platform in the provided sources.

Democratic Dina Titus No documented position in our sources

Republican Carrie Buck

Supports parental rights and expanding school choice

Buck makes education reform a focal point, drawing on her experience as a teacher, principal, and charter school executive. She advocates for complete curriculum transparency, parental decision-making authority, expanded Opportunity Scholarships, and state receivership for failing public schools.

  • Supports curriculum transparency and parental rights in school decision-making
  • Advocates expanding funding for Opportunity Scholarships to expand school choice for underprivileged families
  • Sponsored state legislation requiring Nevada's lowest-performing schools to be placed in state receivership

“I believe in education transparency and parental rights. That means curriculum access, clear communication, and a seat at the table for every family. Nevada’s kids belong to their parents, not the government.”

06

Public Safety and Law Enforcement

medium salience

Buck emphasizes backing law enforcement, increasing criminal penalties, and combating human trafficking, whereas Titus has no detailed public safety platform in the provided sources.

Democratic Dina Titus No documented position in our sources

Republican Carrie Buck

Supports fully funding police and anti-trafficking laws

Buck prioritizes law enforcement support and anti-trafficking measures, drawing on her perspective as a police officer's spouse. She supports strict penalties for human and fentanyl trafficking and mandatory victim interaction training for first responders.

  • Pledges to fully fund police departments and crack down on crime
  • Sponsored state legislation to strengthen penalties for human trafficking and fentanyl traffickers
  • Advocates mandatory human trafficking victim communication training for EMS workers and first responders

“My husband served as a deputy police chief, and I saw what happens when politicians turn their backs on the men and women who wear the badge. In Congress, I’ll fight to fully fund our police, crack down on crime, and back the blue without apology, because Nevada families deserve safe homes, safe schools, and safe streets.”

07

Border Security

medium salience

Buck explicitly commits to securing the southern border, while Titus' platform in the provided sources contains no explicit border security positions.

Democratic Dina Titus No documented position in our sources

Republican Carrie Buck

Supports securing the southern border

Buck identifies border security as a primary campaign priority. She pledges to support federal efforts and partner with the administration to secure the nation's southern border.

  • Includes border security as a core pillar of her congressional campaign website platform
  • Pledges to vote for increased border enforcement and security measures
08

Social Security

medium salience

Titus explicitly opposes Social Security privatization, whereas Buck's stance on Social Security is not detailed in the provided sources.

Democratic Dina Titus

Opposes Social Security privatization

Titus opposes any attempts to privatize Social Security, characterizing it as a guaranteed earned safety net. She warns that placing retirement funds into private markets exposes seniors to severe financial volatility.

  • Opposes privatization of Social Security benefits
  • Frames Social Security as an earned, guaranteed safety net for seniors
  • Warns against exposing retirement funds to stock market fluctuations

“Social security is a guaranteed safety net that you've earned. [...] But if you rely on private companies, they can go up, they can go down, and in good times, you might have a good retirement, and in bad times, you might be left with nothing.”

Republican Carrie Buck No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

NV-01 House Election Winner

94.5% Democrats
5.2% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 94.5REPUBLICANS 5.2

Kalshi ↗

NV-01 House winner?

93.0% Dina Titus
6.0% Carrie Buck
255075100AUG 4AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16TITUS 93.0BUCK 6.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.