Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · New Mexico Tilt D

New Mexico — 2nd District

Portrait of Gabriel Vasquez

Democrat

Gabriel Vasquez

Portrait of Greg Cunningham

Republican

Greg Cunningham

Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez faces Republican Greg Cunningham in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, a critical battleground seat that Donald Trump won in 2024 (49.9% to 48.1%). Vasquez won tight general elections in 2022 and 2024, and major forecasters rate the 2026 general election Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic amidst growing independent voter registration. The race hinges on border security, economic affordability, public safety, and energy policy in southern New Mexico. As of June 30, 2026, Vasquez reported $3.78 million in campaign receipts compared to $1.51 million for Cunningham.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
88.5%
Republicans
11.5%
Kalshi ↗
Gabriel Vasquez
90.9%
Greg Cunningham
9.0%

All markets →

01

Border security and immigration

high salience

Vasquez supports pairing border security funding with ICE reform and citizenship pathways for DREAMers, whereas Cunningham pledges to stand with Donald Trump to close down the border.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports border security and citizenship pathways

Vasquez emphasizes border security funding and legislation targeting drug cartels and human trafficking alongside ICE reform focused on violent offenders. He supports permanent legal status and pathways to citizenship for DREAMers and hardworking immigrant families.

  • Secured over $280 million in border security funding and authored legislation increasing penalties for human smugglers and fentanyl traffickers.
  • Advocates for ICE reforms that focus deportation efforts on violent criminals rather than non-violent workers.
  • Supports permanent pathways to legal status and citizenship for DREAMers and immigrant families.
  • Voted against the Secure the Border Act (H.R. 2), the Laken Riley Act (S. 5), the SAVE Act (H.R. 22), and the DUI deportation bill (H.R. 875).

“He’s seen the immense benefit that immigrant workers and families bring to our communities and economy. But our immigration system is broken, and we need leaders in Congress who will put politics aside to actually fix the problem – not just play political games.”

“Gabe has lived on both sides of the US-Mexico border, and knows the challenges and opportunities of our current immigration system firsthand. He believes we need commonsense border security and to deport violent criminals.”

Republican Greg Cunningham

Supports closing border with Trump

Cunningham lists securing the border as a cornerstone priority of his campaign. He pledges to stand with Donald Trump to close the U.S.-Mexico border and halt illegal entry.

  • Designates 'Keep the Border Secure' as a top campaign theme.
  • Pledges to align with President Trump to close down the border.
  • Appeals to his background as an undercover police detective targeting drug cartels.

“I'm gonna stand with President Trump in closing down the border, fighting the extreme left trying to defund the police and putting Americans and America first.”

“Keep the Border Secure”

02

Public safety and crime

high salience

Vasquez highlights his record voting to raise municipal police budgets and sponsoring anti-cartel bills, while Cunningham campaigns on his 22-year career as a police officer opposing efforts to defund law enforcement.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports police funding and anti-cartel measures

Vasquez explicitly opposes defunding the police, citing his record of increasing police department budgets while serving on the Las Cruces City Council. In Congress, he has sponsored bipartisan bills to crack down on cartels and illegal weapons while advocating for police training reforms.

  • Voted on the Las Cruces City Council to increase the police budget by $3.8 million, adding new officer positions.
  • Introduced bipartisan legislation targeting cartels, fentanyl traffickers, human smugglers, and cartel recruitment of children.
  • Advocates for police training and accountability reform while increasing law enforcement funding.

“Police reform, not police defunding, is the right way to move forward.”

“Gabe worked with law enforcement on the Las Cruces City Council to increase their police budget by $3.8 million.”

Republican Greg Cunningham

Supports law enforcement and opposes defunding

Cunningham emphasizes his 22-year law enforcement career in New Mexico fighting cartels, gangs, and violent crime. He campaigns on opposing left-wing efforts to defund the police and making New Mexico safe.

  • Served 20 years with the Albuquerque Police Department and 2 years with the Bernalillo County Sheriff's Office, including work as an undercover detective.
  • Designates 'Make New Mexico Safe' as a primary campaign pillar.
  • Pledges to fight attempts by the extreme left to defund police departments.

“On the front lines of public safety, he took on cartels, gangs, and violent crime, dedicating himself to protecting New Mexican families and ensuring safer neighborhoods.”

“Make New Mexico Safe”

03

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Vasquez advocates for raising the minimum wage to $15, passing the PRO Act, and repealing corporate tax cuts, while Cunningham stresses his background as a business owner to build a stronger economy.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports minimum wage increase and working-class tax relief

Vasquez advocates for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour, passing the PRO Act to support labor union organizing, and repealing Trump tax cuts for high earners. He supports middle-class tax cuts alongside measures to reduce healthcare, childcare, and utility costs.

  • Supports raising the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour and passing the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act.
  • Advocates repealing Trump-era tax cuts for wealthy corporations and individuals to fund tax relief for working families.
  • Voted for the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024) and the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023.
  • Voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1) reconciliation bill in 2025 and the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.

“Gabe also understands that New Mexicans are struggling to pay their bills because of rising prices, and that’s why he’ll support policies that cut taxes on working families while lowering the cost of healthcare, childcare, and utilities.”

“This starts with raising wages, supporting workers’ right to organize and join a union, supporting the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, increasing support for our small businesses, and repealing the Trump tax cuts that paid for tax cuts for the rich by cutting health care and food assistance for working families.”

Republican Greg Cunningham

Supports economic growth and small business

Cunningham campaigns on strengthening the economy using conservative principles and small business experience. He stresses understanding the everyday financial struggles of New Mexico families.

  • Lists 'Build a Stronger Economy' as a central platform priority.
  • Highlights his perspective as a local business owner and private investigations agency founder.

“Build a Stronger Economy”

“As a husband, father, grandfather, and business owner, he knows firsthand the struggles and hopes of hardworking New Mexicans.”

04

Energy and public lands

medium salience

Vasquez emphasizes public lands conservation, wildfire legislation, and clean energy transition, whereas Cunningham calls for developing domestic American energy.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports public lands protection and clean energy

Vasquez founded the Bipartisan Public Lands Caucus to preserve public land access for outdoor recreation and fought federal efforts to sell off public lands. He supports transitioning to clean energy sources like wind and solar while co-authoring bipartisan wildfire mitigation legislation signed by President Trump.

  • Founded the Bipartisan Public Lands Caucus and led efforts to prevent the sale of federal public lands.
  • Authored bipartisan wildfire fighting legislation signed into law by President Trump.
  • Supports clean energy transition initiatives (wind and solar) to fight climate change and address drought and water scarcity.
  • Voted against the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1).

“Gabe has spent much of his career making sure New Mexicans have access to public lands and he’ll keep working to conserve our lands, water, and wildlife in Congress – and fight any efforts to sell off our public lands to the highest bidder.”

“This is why Gabe worked with Republicans to reduce wildfire risk, getting his bipartisan bill to fight New Mexico wildfires signed into law by President Trump.”

Republican Greg Cunningham

Supports developing American energy

Cunningham supports expanding domestic energy development to foster economic growth and energy independence. He includes energy development among his primary priorities for New Mexico.

  • Designates 'Develop American Energy' as a core campaign goal.
  • Promotes domestic energy production to support the state's economy.

“Develop American Energy”

05

Veterans

medium salience

Vasquez details legislative proposals to expand GI benefits and oppose VA privatization, while Cunningham emphasizes his personal record as a Recon Marine combat veteran.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports expanding VA healthcare and GI benefits

Vasquez advocates for expanding veteran healthcare access, mental health support, and GI Bill benefits, while opposing the privatization of the Veterans Administration. He introduced legislation to lower healthcare barriers in rural NM and honor the Bataan Death March.

  • Introduced legislation expanding GI Bill benefits and reducing healthcare access barriers for rural and Native American veterans.
  • Opposes efforts to privatize the Veterans Administration.
  • Authored legislation honoring New Mexico's Bataan Death March legacy.

“We must also fight every day to end homelessness among veterans and oppose privatizing the Veterans Administration.”

“Since being in Congress, Gabe has introduced legislation to expand GI bill benefits, lower barriers to veteran health care, and honor the legacy of the Bataan Death March in New Mexico.”

Republican Greg Cunningham

Emphasizes Marine combat veteran background

Cunningham highlights his experience as a Recon Marine and combat veteran in the U.S. Marine Corps. He cites his military service as foundational to his commitment to public safety and discipline.

  • Served in the United States Marine Corps as a Recon Marine and combat veteran.
  • Cites military background as instilling discipline, courage, and service to country.

“From an early age, he felt the call to serve and answered it by joining the United States Marine Corps, where he distinguished himself as a combat veteran.”

“As a former Recon Marine, police officer, and undercover detective, Greg has put himself on the line to keep Americans safe.”

06

Education and children

low salience

Vasquez focuses on lowering childcare costs and expanding rural and tribal education resources, while Cunningham lists investing in New Mexico children as a core campaign goal.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports lower childcare costs and education funding

Vasquez advocates for cutting taxes on working families to make childcare more affordable and expanding educational infrastructure investments across rural and tribal communities.

  • Supports policies lowering the cost of childcare and utilities for working families.
  • Advocates bringing federal education and infrastructure resources to rural and Native communities.

“Gabe is focused on the real challenges facing Southern New Mexico. He’s committed to building a thriving economy where corporations pay their fair share, protecting every American’s freedom to vote and every woman’s right to choose, and honoring our veterans and tribal communities.”

“lowering the cost of healthcare, childcare, and utilities.”

Republican Greg Cunningham

Supports investing in New Mexico children

Cunningham lists investing in children among his central campaign themes, highlighting his goal of handing down a better world to the next generation.

  • Includes 'Invest in New Mexico Children' among his main campaign priorities.
  • Emphasizes restoring societal trust and stability for future generations.

“Invest in New Mexico Children”

“My part in this is to get us back on track, to once again know that the world I hand my children and my grandchildren is a better world than what I was handed and I want to be a part of that.”

07

Healthcare

medium salience

Vasquez champions a healthcare public option, insulin price caps, and medical debt protections, whereas Cunningham has no documented stance in the available sources.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports public option and capping prescription costs

Vasquez supports establishing a healthcare public option, lowering Medicare eligibility to age 55, and adding dental and vision coverage. He sponsored the Patient Debt Relief Act to protect families from foreclosures and wage garnishment due to medical debt, while supporting Medicare drug price negotiations and insulin price caps.

  • Supports creating a healthcare public option, lowering Medicare eligibility age to 55, and adding dental and vision benefits.
  • Introduced the Patient Debt Relief Act to protect patients from predatory medical debt collection, wage garnishment, and home foreclosures.
  • Supported capping insulin prices at $35 per month and authorizing Medicare prescription drug price negotiation.

“In Congress, Gabe will work to lower healthcare costs for New Mexicans by fighting for a public option, adding dental and vision benefits and lowering the eligibility age for Medicare to 55, and ensuring that Medicare can negotiate for lower prescription drug costs”

“Gabe has also fought to cap the price of insulin and introduced the Patient Debt Relief Act, that would protect American patients from the corporate exploitation, garnished wages, and home foreclosures that have ruined the lives of New Mexicans struggling to get back on their feet after a medical event.”

Republican Greg Cunningham No documented position in our sources
08

Reproductive rights

medium salience

Vasquez explicitly defends federal abortion and contraception rights, while Cunningham has no documented position in the sources.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports federal abortion rights and contraception access

Vasquez supports protecting abortion access and contraception nationwide. He opposes federal abortion bans and legislative efforts to restrict women's healthcare options.

  • Pledges to oppose any federal attempts to ban abortion or restrict access to birth control.
  • Supports protecting women's rights to choose their own reproductive healthcare.

“Gabe will oppose any attempt by Republicans in Congress to ban access to abortion, birth control, or to prevent women from having the right to choose.”

“Access to healthcare is a right and politicians in Congress and in state legislatures shouldn’t stand between women and their healthcare.”

Republican Greg Cunningham No documented position in our sources
09

Government ethics and election administration

medium salience

Vasquez supports banning congressional stock trading and protecting voting access, while Cunningham has no documented stance in the available sources.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports congressional stock ban and voting protections

Vasquez co-leads bipartisan legislation to ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks and does not trade stocks himself. He supports protecting voting access and safeguarding non-partisan election administration.

  • Co-leading bipartisan legislation to ban stock trading by members of Congress.
  • Does not hold or trade stocks while serving in office.
  • Supports federal voting rights protections and non-partisan election oversight.
  • Voted against the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal election registration.

“He doesn’t trade stocks and is leading a bipartisan effort to ban stock trading in Congress, putting an end to lawmakers profiting from their positions of power, so we can focus on making things easier for everyday New Mexicans.”

“Gabe will fight to protect every eligible American’s right to cast a ballot and have their votes counted and to make sure that, when the votes are counted, the will of the people prevails.”

Republican Greg Cunningham No documented position in our sources
10

Tribal sovereignty and Native American communities

low salience

Vasquez advocates federal investments in tribal infrastructure and closing prediction market loopholes impacting tribal sovereignty, whereas Cunningham has no documented position in the sources.

Democratic Gabriel Vasquez

Supports tribal sovereignty and reservation infrastructure

Vasquez champions federal investments in healthcare, education, and infrastructure for sovereign tribal nations in NM-02. He authored efforts to close prediction market loopholes that violate tribal sovereignty and siphon resources away from tribal public safety and education.

  • Supports upholding government-to-government consultation with Laguna, Zuni, Acoma, and Isleta Pueblos, Mescalero and Ft. Sill Apache, Navajo Nation, and Piro-Manso-Tiwa.
  • Championed closing loopholes allowing unregulated prediction markets operating as sports betting that violate Tribal sovereignty.
  • Advocates bringing federal economic, healthcare, and infrastructure resources to tribal communities.

“Understanding and upholding tribal sovereignty is absolutely necessary, in addition to respecting and honoring the government-to-government relationship that exists between New Mexico’s Native American communities and the federal government.”

“That’s why Gabe has championed closing loopholes that allow prediction markets to operate functionally as sports betting without regulation, violating Tribal sovereignty and siphoning funding away from Tribal infrastructure, early childhood education, and public safety.”

Republican Greg Cunningham No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

NM-02 House Election Winner

88.5% Democrats
11.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 88.5REPUBLICANS 11.5

Kalshi ↗

NM-02 House winner?

90.9% Gabriel Vasquez
9.0% Greg Cunningham
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16VASQUEZ 90.9CUNNINGHAM 9.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.