Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · North Carolina Lean R

North Carolina — 11th District

The 2026 general election for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District features Democratic nominee Jamie Ager against two-term Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards, who announced in August 2026 that he was ending his re-election bid following a House Ethics Committee censure recommendation. Redrawn in October 2025, the Western North Carolina district hinges on federal recovery funding for Hurricane Helene damage, cost-of-living concerns, and regional economic development. Major rating services classify the race as Lean Republican (Cook, Decision Desk, Inside Elections) or Toss-up (Sabato's Crystal Ball), while prediction markets and primary fundraising reflect a competitive environment.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
62.5%
Republicans
36.5%
Kalshi ↗
Jamie Ager
65.0%
Jennifer Balkcom
38.0%

All markets →

01

Hurricane Helene recovery

high salience

Ager makes securing $60-$100 billion in federal Helene recovery funds and cutting red tape his top priority, while Edwards emphasizes staff constituent casework aiding communities recovering from disasters.

Democratic Jamie Ager

Delivering federal recovery funds directly to WNC

Ager identifies securing Hurricane Helene recovery funding as his top legislative priority in Congress. He criticizes delays in federal aid to small communities following $60 to $100 billion in regional damage and pledges to cut red tape to deliver funds directly to residents and small businesses.

  • Pledges to cut federal red tape to expedite Helene recovery dollars.
  • Focuses on rebuilding damaged small business infrastructure and public infrastructure across WNC.
  • Advocates for targeted federal loans and grants for local businesses recovering from storm damage.

“In Congress, my top priority will be delivering recovery funds and pushing to help our region come back even stronger than we were.”

Republican Chuck Edwards

Assisting disaster recovery through congressional casework

Edwards highlights his office's work assisting Western North Carolina communities recovering from disasters as part of his constituent casework. Although he withdrew from his re-election campaign in August 2026, he emphasized his team's ongoing role in federal agency navigation during recovery efforts.

  • Assisted local families and communities with federal disaster recovery agencies through congressional staff casework.
  • Voted for federal appropriations bills including government funding extensions during disaster response windows.

“every day, my team answers thousands of phone calls, helps families navigate federal agencies, assists veterans, supports communities recovering from disasters, works tirelessly on legislation, and represents the people of Western North Carolina with professionalism, integrity, and compassion.”

02

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Ager seeks to lower living costs through corporate monopoly enforcement, housing support, and expanded tax credits, whereas Edwards focuses on enacting a Balanced Budget Amendment and capping federal spending.

Democratic Jamie Ager

Lowering costs and expanding working family tax credits

Ager focuses on closing the gap between wages and rising expenses for utilities, childcare, housing, and food. He advocates for antitrust enforcement against food and utility monopolies, first-time homebuyer assistance, expanded Child Tax Credits, and tax code reforms that make top earners pay their fair share.

  • Supports tax credits for energy efficiency to lower household utility bills.
  • Advocates expanding grants and the Child Tax Credit to offset childcare costs.
  • Proposes eliminating taxes on tips for service workers while closing corporate tax loopholes.
  • Calls for banning members of Congress from trading stocks to prevent insider enrichment.

“The math doesn’t work between wages and the high cost of living. People are getting squeezed from every direction.”

Republican Chuck Edwards

Balancing budget and capping federal spending

Edwards frames national economic challenges as a spending crisis rather than a revenue problem. He champions a federal Balanced Budget Amendment modeled on North Carolina's requirement and signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge.

  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge.
  • Introduced and supported a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
  • Voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 and the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 to cap non-defense spending.
  • Voted for H.R.1 reconciliation bill in 2025 to reform tax policy and statutory debt limits.

“We don't have a debt crisis in this country. We have a spending crisis.”

03

Immigration and border security

high salience

Ager supports comprehensive immigration reform aimed at business labor supply and dignified treatment, while Edwards supports physical wall construction, sanctuary city bans, and strict mandatory detention laws.

Democratic Jamie Ager

Supports comprehensive immigration reform with dignity

Ager calls for comprehensive immigration reform that modernizes the legal system to support local business labor needs while maintaining border security and public safety. He emphasizes treating immigrants with dignity and establishing clear, realistic pathways.

  • Supports comprehensive immigration reform to resolve long-standing system backlogs.
  • Advocates providing businesses with stable legal workforce channels.
  • Emphasizes combining border security with humane treatment of migrants.

“Our immigration system needs to be clear, fair, and realistic. I support reforms that treat people with dignity and give businesses the workforce they need to grow, all while keeping every community safe.”

Republican Chuck Edwards

Enforces strict border security and wall construction

Edwards prioritizes physical border security, restoring funding for the southern border wall, and enforcing strict immigration laws. In the state Senate, he sponsored legislation banning sanctuary cities in North Carolina, and in Congress, he consistently voted for strict immigration enforcement legislation.

  • Sponsored state legislation banning sanctuary cities in North Carolina.
  • Supports full construction of the southern border wall and increased Border Patrol resources.
  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring mandatory DHS detention for certain criminal suspects.
  • Voted Yea on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R.2) and voted to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

“I will always put America’s security first. That means strengthening our borders, restoring funding to build the wall, and forcing all federal agencies to enforce our immigration laws.”

04

Healthcare

high salience

Ager advocates creating a public option and expanding Medicare coverage to dental and vision, whereas Edwards opposes federal health mandates and supports market-based health policies.

Democratic Jamie Ager

Expands public option and protects Medicare drug caps

Ager advocates for creating a healthcare public option to ensure universal access to affordable care. He supports expanding Medicare to include dental, vision, and home-based care, defending Medicare's prescription drug price negotiation powers, and expanding rural mental health interventions.

  • Supports creating a public health insurance option for all Americans.
  • Defends Medicare drug price negotiations and caps on insulin costs.
  • Advocates expanding Medicare coverage to include dental, vision, and home care.
  • Promotes expanding mental health screening and inpatient/outpatient treatment facilities.

“I’ll push for a public option so everyone has access to quality affordable health care.”

Republican Chuck Edwards

Opposes federal health mandates and market regulations

Edwards opposes federal healthcare mandates and government interventions in insurance markets. During the 118th Congress, he voted to terminate CDC vaccine requirements for international travelers and signed onto legislative efforts opposing federal health emergencies.

  • Voted Yea on H.R.185 to terminate CDC COVID-19 vaccination mandates for foreign travelers.
  • Voted Yea on H.J.Res.7 ending the national emergency declared for the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Rated by state healthcare scorecards on efforts to lower healthcare costs through market-based policies.
05

Energy and public lands

medium salience

Ager vows never to allow public lands to be sold off while backing energy-saving family tax credits, whereas Edwards promotes expanding domestic oil, gas, and coal production while opposing green regulations.

Democratic Jamie Ager

Protects public lands and supports renewable energy incentives

Ager pledges to defend WNC's national parks and forests against public land sales, highlighting the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and Blue Ridge Parkway as critical economic drivers. He supports consumer tax credits to help families reduce energy consumption.

  • Opposes selling off or privatizing federal public lands and national forests.
  • Supports tax credits helping families adopt energy-saving heat and electricity systems.
  • Promotes sustainable management of WNC timber and forest resources.

“We have the two most visited national parks in the country, the Blue Ridge Parkway and Great Smoky Mountains National Park, along with several national forests, wilderness areas, and other public lands. These are assets that we must cherish and protect. I’ll never allow them to be sold off.”

Republican Chuck Edwards

Expands domestic oil and gas production

Edwards champions U.S. energy independence by increasing domestic production of oil, natural gas, and coal. He strongly opposes the Green New Deal and federal leasing restrictions, arguing that regulations increase gas prices for WNC drivers.

  • Opposes the Green New Deal and federal environmental regulations on businesses.
  • Advocates reopening federal land oil and gas leasing and resuming pipeline projects like Keystone XL.
  • Voted Yea on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R.1, 2023) to streamline energy project permitting.

“We don't need to put our country and our livelihoods at risk for liberal energy and climate experiments like the Green New Deal that reward China while hamstringing America.”

06

Agriculture and food systems

medium salience

Ager provides a detailed platform for small farmers featuring right-to-repair laws and local school food supply programs, while Edwards offers broad support for local agricultural businesses and regulatory reduction.

Democratic Jamie Ager

Supports small farmers and local food networks

As a fourth-generation farmer, Ager advocates for policies that support small entrepreneurial agricultural operations. He supports right-to-repair legislation for farm equipment, local food procurement programs for schools, land access for young farmers, and protecting food safety nets like SNAP and WIC.

  • Supports right-to-repair legislation for agricultural equipment.
  • Promotes local agricultural procurement programs to bring regional produce and meats into public schools.
  • Advocates strengthening SNAP and WIC benefits to support low-income families and seniors.
  • Supports market access and land ownership programs for young farmers.

“As a small farmer, I believe that US agriculture should promote small farmers doing entrepreneurial agriculture. Creating a farming system that creates healthy food that people can afford means we are making the world a better place.”

Republican Chuck Edwards

Supports WNC agricultural producers and deregulation

Edwards emphasizes support for local Western North Carolina farmers and agricultural business owners on his campaign platform. He stresses reducing regulatory burdens on rural businesses and supporting agricultural commerce.

  • Highlights ongoing backing for local WNC farmers and agricultural enterprises.
  • Supports cutting federal regulations that increase costs for farm operations.
07

Government ethics and election reform

medium salience

Ager advocates banning congressional stock trading and reforming dark money campaign finance, while Edwards voted for federal voter citizenship proof requirements and limiting federal court injunctions.

Democratic Jamie Ager

Bans congressional stock trading and dark money

Ager champions anti-corruption reforms aimed at restoring trust in government. He advocates banning members of Congress from trading stocks, reforming campaign finance laws to expose dark money, introducing congressional term limits, and streamlining federal agency bureaucracy.

  • Proposes an explicit ban on members of Congress trading individual stocks.
  • Supports campaign finance reform to increase dark money transparency.
  • Advocates for term limits and structural reforms to inject new leadership into Congress.
  • Focuses on reforming social media algorithms that profit off political polarization.

“I’ll fight to ban members of Congress from stock trading, so no one is using insider knowledge for personal gain.”

Republican Chuck Edwards

Requires voter citizenship proof and limits court injunctions

Edwards focuses ethics and governance efforts on voter eligibility enforcement and judicial reform. In Congress, he voted for mandatory documentary proof of citizenship for federal election registration and supported restricting nation-wide federal court injunctions.

  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R.22, 2025) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal voting.
  • Voted Yea on NORRA of 2025 (H.R.1526) limiting federal district court injunctions to immediate litigants.
  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R.4405, 2025) to publish unclassified investigative records.
08

Education

low salience

Ager promotes adding personal finance instruction to public school curricula, while Edwards champions expanding school choice vouchers and restricting Critical Race Theory.

Democratic Jamie Ager

Supports personal finance education in public schools

Ager advocates adding practical life skills into public school curricula, specifically supporting mandatory personal finance instruction so students learn saving and investing basics.

  • Supports personal finance education in public schools.

“I’ll support teaching personal finance in schools so our kids know how to save and invest their hard earned dollars.”

Republican Chuck Edwards

Supports school choice and parental rights

Edwards advocates empowering parents over school boards and expanding school choice options. In the NC Senate, he fought against Critical Race Theory curricula and school closure mandates, and in Congress, he voted to restrict biological males from competing in female sports.

  • Fought for school choice expansion and school board transparency in the NC Senate.
  • Opposed teaching Critical Race Theory and school closure mandates.
  • Voted Yea on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R.28).

“Only parents know what’s best for their children – not the government.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

NC-11 House Election Winner

62.5% Democrats
36.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 62.5REPUBLICANS 36.5

Kalshi ↗

NC-11 House winner?

65.0% Jamie Ager
38.0% Jennifer Balkcom
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16AGER 65.0BALKCOM 38.0PARTY 28.0EDWARDS 0.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.