Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · North Carolina Toss-up

North Carolina — 1st District

Portrait of Laurie Buckhout

Republican

Laurie Buckhout

North Carolina's 1st Congressional District features Democratic incumbent Donald Davis facing Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout in a high-stakes 2026 battleground matchup. Mid-decade redistricting enacted in October 2025 significantly shifted the district's partisan makeup from D+0.3 to R+8, increasing its competitiveness for Republicans. The election hinges on economic affordability, border security, agricultural interests, and national defense in rural and coastal eastern North Carolina. Forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up or Lean Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
63.5%
Republicans
37.5%
Kalshi ↗
Donald Davis
64.0%
Laurie Buckhout
38.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Davis focuses on federal assistance to lower household costs and raise wages, whereas Buckhout emphasizes tax cuts, spending rollbacks, and deregulation to spur growth.

Democratic Donald Davis

Supports targeted inflation relief and workforce investment

Davis prioritizes lowering day-to-day living expenses for eastern North Carolina families, including grocery, fuel, housing, and healthcare costs. He supports creating good-paying jobs, expanding workforce training, helping small businesses grow, and raising the minimum wage.

  • Advocates lowering prescription drug prices and expanding access to affordable housing.
  • Voted against the 2025 reconciliation bill (H.R. 1) and the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
  • Supports minimum wage increases and federal investment in rural job creation.

“Families across eastern North Carolina are feeling the pain of increased gas prices, higher grocery bills, and rising healthcare costs. Don Davis is working to make life more affordable, expand opportunity, and deliver real results for our coastal and rural communities.”

Republican Laurie Buckhout

Supports tax cuts and reduced government spending

Buckhout blames Democratic policies for inflation and high cost of living. She pledges to cut taxes, curb government spending, balance the federal budget, and cut regulations to spur private-sector job growth in rural communities.

  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge.
  • Proposes reducing federal spending to curb inflation and lower gas and grocery prices.
  • Promotes bringing outsourced manufacturing jobs back to rural North Carolina.

“Laurie will fight to cut taxes so hardworking families can get ahead. Eastern North Carolina Families deserve a fighter who will work to pass policies that directly impact their pocketbooks and reduce their cost of living.”

02

Border Security and Immigration

high salience

Davis supports specific law-enforcement measures against undocumented immigrants charged with crimes, while Buckhout advocates building the border wall and reinstating 'Remain in Mexico'.

Democratic Donald Davis

Supports targeted border enforcement and law enforcement tools

Davis has voted for selective bipartisan enforcement bills in Congress, including measures to detain undocumented immigrants arrested for theft crimes or impaired driving, while opposing broader voting eligibility restrictions.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) to require detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for theft or burglary.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 to make driving while impaired grounds for deportation or inadmissibility.
  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) regarding documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration.

Republican Laurie Buckhout

Supports building border wall and strict immigration enforcement

Buckhout calls border enforcement a critical component of national security. She advocates completing the southern border wall, reinstating border policies from the Trump administration, and curbing illicit fentanyl entry.

  • Supports building the southern border wall.
  • Advocates reinstating the 'Remain in Mexico' policy.
  • Calls for fully resourcing Border Patrol agents to stop drug trafficking.

“Laurie Buckhout is a STRONG advocate for securing our border by building the wall and reimplementing the “Remain in Mexico” policies of the Trump Administration.”

03

Military and National Defense

medium salience

Davis relies on his legislative work on the House Armed Services Committee, while Buckhout highlights her background as an Army combat commander to advocate for expanded military force.

Democratic Donald Davis

Supports military readiness and legislative oversight

As an Air Force veteran, Davis serves on the House Armed Services Committee, including the Readiness and Military Personnel subcommittees, focusing on funding defense operations and supporting military members.

  • Serves on the House Armed Services Committee.
  • Voted Yea on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2024.

Republican Laurie Buckhout

Supports expanding defense budget and military deterrence

A retired Army Colonel and combat commander, Buckhout emphasizes military strength to deter international adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran, and to protect foreign allies.

  • Supports increasing defense investments to maintain military dominance.
  • Advocates strong stance against threats from China, Russia, and Iran.
  • Pledges explicit support for key foreign allies, including Israel.

“The United States must have the strength by all means necessary to protect us from countries like China, Iran, and Russia and to defend our allies like Israel.”

04

Veterans Affairs

medium salience

Both military veterans prioritize reform, with Davis pointing to funding wins for PTSD/TBI treatment and legislative committee roles, and Buckhout making generalized commitments to veteran care.

Democratic Donald Davis

Supports expanding VA healthcare and benefit services

Davis draws on his military background to advocate for better VA healthcare, reduced benefit processing delays, and expanded support programs for military families and post-service transition.

  • Secured $150,000 for PTSD and traumatic brain injury support during state legislative service.
  • Focuses on reducing delays in VA benefit processing and military transition programs.
  • Pledges to improve rural healthcare access for aging veterans.

“In Congress, he's fighting to improve veterans' healthcare, reduce delays in benefits, support military families, and strengthen VA services. He believes that honoring our veterans means more than words, it means keeping our promises to those who have served our great nation.”

Republican Laurie Buckhout

Supports reforming and guaranteeing veteran care

Buckhout commits to ensuring service members receive top-tier physical and mental healthcare after completing their service missions.

  • Promises dedicated advocacy for combat veterans and post-service care.
  • Pledges to reform administrative barriers in veteran healthcare systems.

“Laurie’s promise to fellow veterans does not end when they return home, she will not rest until our veterans receive the proper care they deserve.”

05

Agriculture and Rural Infrastructure

medium salience

Davis favors direct federal funding for rural infrastructure and broadband, whereas Buckhout prioritizes deregulation to support agricultural and seafood industries.

Democratic Donald Davis

Supports federal infrastructure funding and agricultural support

Davis serves on the House Agriculture Committee and focuses on securing federal funding for high-speed broadband, rural hospitals, and assistance for family farms facing climate impacts.

  • Member of the House Committee on Agriculture.
  • Secured funding to expand broadband internet and rural infrastructure in eastern North Carolina.
  • Supports USDA resources to help farmers adapt to changing climate conditions.

“He's working to support rural hospitals, strengthen family farms, and expand reliable high-speed internet so families, students, and businesses can succeed in every corner of our region.”

Republican Laurie Buckhout

Supports deregulation for agriculture and seafood industries

Buckhout emphasizes her upbringing on a farm to advocate cutting federal regulations that affect multigenerational agricultural and seafood producers in eastern North Carolina.

  • Advocates cutting burdensome federal regulations on farmers and commercial fishermen.
  • Focuses on protecting local agricultural businesses from federal administrative oversight.

“She’s committed to cutting unnecessary regulations and ensuring these communities have the resources they need to thrive for generations to come.”

06

Technology and Artificial Intelligence

medium salience

Davis supports legislative regulatory guardrails for digital assets like stablecoins, while Buckhout calls for deregulation and domestic energy expansion to dominate AI and digital innovation.

Democratic Donald Davis

Supports bipartisan digital asset regulation

Davis supports establishing clear federal oversight for digital financial assets, voting in favor of regulatory frameworks for stablecoins.

  • Voted Yea on the GENIUS Act (S. 1582) establishing a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins.

Republican Laurie Buckhout

Supports deregulation to advance U.S. leadership in AI and crypto

Drawing on her background in cyber policy and service in the Trump administration, Buckhout advocates slashing regulations to outpace China in artificial intelligence and digital assets while expanding domestic energy for tech.

  • Promotes slashing tech regulations to ensure U.S. dominance over China in AI.
  • Advocates unleashing domestic energy to power technological infrastructure.
  • Supports pro-growth regulations for digital assets and cryptocurrency.

“We need to slash the regulations strangling American innovation and unleash American energy to power our tech sector. Under my watch, America will dominate AI, not China.”

07

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Davis advocates codifying Roe v. Wade at the federal level, whereas Buckhout campaigns on protecting the right to life.

Democratic Donald Davis

Supports codifying abortion rights federally

Davis supports protecting reproductive rights nationwide and codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law while addressing maternal health disparities.

  • Advocates codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law.
  • Pledges to protect women's constitutional healthcare decisions.
  • Supports programs addressing maternal mortality disparities among minority women.

“Congress must take action to codify Roe v. Wade and protect women’s constitutional rights across the country. He knows that a woman’s health decisions should be between her and her doctor.”

Republican Laurie Buckhout

Opposes abortion and supports restrictions

Buckhout includes protecting the right to life as a core platform element within her conservative agenda.

  • Explicitly listed 'Protect the right to life' as a platform pledge.

“Protect the right to life”

08

Gun Rights and Second Amendment

medium salience
Democratic Donald Davis No documented position in our sources

Republican Laurie Buckhout

Opposes gun control restrictions

Buckhout opposes new gun control legislation and red tape, citing her military background and support for hunting heritage.

  • Opposes red tape and regulatory restrictions on law-abiding gun owners.
  • Defends hunting rights and gun ownership under the Second Amendment.

“As a combat veteran, Laurie understands the vital importance of the right to keep and bear arms. She will stand strong against the extremists who mock our hunting heritage and would punish law-abiding gun owners with additional red tape.”

09

Education

low salience

Democratic Donald Davis

Supports increased funding for public education and HBCUs

As an educator of over two decades, Davis supports expanding early childhood education, funding public schools, supporting HBCUs, and making vocational training and college affordable.

  • Secured over $140 million for Elizabeth City State University during state legislative tenure.
  • Advocates heavy investment in Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs).
  • Supports expanding early childhood education and college affordability.

“In Congress, he's fighting to strengthen our schools, expand early childhood education, make college and workforce training more affordable, and invest in the next generation of North Carolina's leaders.”

Republican Laurie Buckhout No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

NC-01 House Election Winner

63.5% Democrats
37.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 63.5REPUBLICANS 37.5

Kalshi ↗

NC-01 House winner?

64.0% Donald Davis
38.0% Laurie Buckhout
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DAVIS 64.0BUCKHOUT 38.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.