Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Missouri Safe R

Missouri — 6th District

Missouri's 6th Congressional District election features Democratic nominee Josh Smead against Republican nominee Chris Stigall for an open seat left by retiring Republican incumbent Sam Graves. Following the August 4, 2026 primary, the general election hinges on agricultural policy, rural healthcare preservation, tax policy, border security, and reproductive rights across North Missouri. Major rating agencies—including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill—rate the district as Solid or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
94.5%
Democrats
5.5%
Kalshi ↗
Republicans
93.1%
Democrats
7.5%
Kalshi ↗
Chris Stigall
99.0%
Nathan Hall Willett
2.0%
Cody J Oshel
1.0%
Jim Ingram
1.0%
Nathanael Schultz
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Josh Smead
99.0%
Scot Pondelick
1.0%
Matt Levine
1.0%

All markets →

01

Agriculture & Rural Development

high salience

Smead emphasizes regulating corporate land ownership and securing right-to-repair protections, whereas Stigall focuses on deregulation and expanding trade access in line with Trump's platform.

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports family farms and smart trade

Smead prioritizes family-run farms over corporate hedge funds, advocating for a farmer's right to repair equipment, trade stability, and sustainable practices. He opposes erratic tariff policies that spark trade wars and squeeze local producers.

  • Enact right-to-repair protections for agricultural equipment
  • Restrict corporate hedge funds from purchasing local agricultural land
  • Incentivize soil health, water conservation, and ag-tech innovation

“I believe in smart trade, not bailouts — and policies that put small and family-run farms first.”

“Family farms come first, not hedge funds buying up agricultural land, with reforms that keep ownership local and reward the people who work the land.”

Republican Chris Stigall

Supports deregulation and market access

Stigall views agriculture as North Missouri's leading industry and aligns with Donald Trump's policy platform to boost domestic food production. He pledges to fight for a seat on the House Agriculture Committee to roll back federal regulations.

  • Seek appointment to the House Agriculture Committee
  • Expand international market access for Missouri agricultural products
  • Cut federal regulations hindering family farms

“Agriculture is North Missouri's number one industry, and our farmers deserve a strong voice in Washington.”

“I support President Trump's efforts to expand market access, strengthen domestic food production, and reduce burdensome regulations that hurt family farms.”

02

Healthcare & Rural Hospitals

high salience

Smead advocates protecting and expanding Medicaid to safeguard rural hospitals, while Stigall focuses on cutting federal mandates and regulations.

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports expanding Medicaid and rural access

Smead opposes federal Medicaid cuts and advocates targeted investments to keep rural hospitals open. He supports policies guaranteeing that emergency, basic, and maternity care are accessible within a one-hour drive for all district residents.

  • Strengthen and protect Medicaid funding from congressional cuts
  • Expand medical residency programs directed to rural hospitals
  • Guarantee basic, emergency, and maternity care within a one-hour drive

“We need to strengthen Medicaid, not slash it, and invest in rural healthcare so families can grow and age in the communities they love.”

“Every Missourian should have emergency and basic care within a one-hour drive, with targeted support for underserved and rural communities.”

Republican Chris Stigall

Supports deregulation and hospital mandate relief

Stigall attributes rural hospital struggles to federal mandates, workforce shortages, and low reimbursement rates. He advocates cutting federal bureaucracy to lower healthcare costs and improve local care delivery.

  • Reduce federal mandates and administrative red tape on healthcare providers
  • Increase reimbursement rates and address workforce shortages in small towns
  • Partner with the federal executive branch to expand local healthcare options

“Too many rural hospitals are struggling under the weight of federal mandates, workforce shortages, and declining reimbursement rates.”

“I will work alongside President Trump to reduce red tape, expand access to care, strengthen rural hospitals, and ensure families in small towns can access quality healthcare close to home.”

03

Taxes & Economic Policy

high salience

Smead opposes tax breaks for high earners and criticizes trade tariffs, while Stigall advocates making Trump's tax cuts permanent.

Democratic Josh Smead

Opposes billionaire tax breaks and tariffs

Smead opposes tax cuts for high earners and corporations, arguing they strain the federal budget and lead to cuts in public services. He criticizes unilateral tariffs for driving up costs for consumers and trade workers.

  • Oppose tax breaks and federal subsidies for corporations and billionaires
  • Protect working families from retaliatory tariff costs
  • Direct federal resources toward middle-class economic support and capital for small businesses

“Tariffs have become a political tool, but too often it’s working families — not foreign governments — who pay the price.”

“Meanwhile, household debt just hit a record $17.3 trillion, and billionaires still enjoy tax breaks and subsidies. It’s time Congress stopped protecting the powerful and started investing in the people.”

Republican Chris Stigall

Supports permanent tax cuts

Stigall favors tax relief for working families, small business owners, and farmers. He advocates making the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent to encourage economic growth and job creation.

  • Make President Trump's tax cuts permanent
  • Oppose tax increases on individuals, farmers, and small businesses
  • Promote economic growth by constraining the size of federal government spending

“Families, farmers, and small businesses deserve tax relief - not bigger government.”

“I support making President Trump's tax cuts permanent and will fight against any effort to raise taxes on hardworking Americans.”

04

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

high salience

Smead favors protecting individual abortion access, whereas Stigall is proudly pro-life and opposes taxpayer funding for abortion.

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports federal abortion rights

Smead supports individual bodily autonomy and opposes federal or state restrictions on abortion access. He argues that healthcare decisions belong strictly to individuals rather than politicians.

  • Protect reproductive freedom and abortion access
  • Oppose state and federal bans on reproductive choices

“Missourians deserve sovereignty over their own bodies — plain and simple.”

“I trust Missourians to make personal decisions for themselves — not the government.”

Republican Chris Stigall

Opposes abortion and taxpayer funding

Stigall is pro-life and opposes taxpayer funding for abortion services. Endorsed by the Missouri Right to Life PAC, he supports measures defending unborn life at the federal level while recognizing state-level decision-making.

  • Oppose federal taxpayer funding for abortion providers
  • Support pro-life legislation protecting unborn children
  • Earned endorsement from Missouri Right to Life PAC

“I am proudly pro-life and believe every human life is a gift from God that deserves protection.”

“While abortion policy is increasingly being decided at the state level, I will oppose taxpayer funding for abortion and support efforts that protect innocent life.”

05

Border Security & Immigration

high salience

Smead emphasizes due process and court resources over mass detention, while Stigall supports border wall completion, mass deportations, and the SAVE Act.

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports due process and court resources

Smead supports lawful and transparent border enforcement grounded in constitutional due process. He advocates directing immigration resources toward judicial court capacity rather than building mass detention facilities.

  • Focus immigration funding on immigration courts and legal process efficiency
  • Oppose mass detention centers in favor of transparent, lawful enforcement

“Immigration enforcement should be lawful, transparent, and centered on due process, with resources focused on courts instead of mass detention centers.”

Republican Chris Stigall

Supports border wall and SAVE Act

Stigall advocates strict border enforcement policies, including finishing the border wall, ending catch-and-release, and deporting undocumented immigrants convicted of crimes. He strongly backs the SAVE Act to restrict federal voting to U.S. citizens.

  • Finish physical wall construction along the southern border
  • Terminate catch-and-release programs and deport criminal undocumented immigrants
  • Pass the SAVE Act to enforce voter eligibility proof in federal elections

“A nation without secure borders is not a nation at all. I support President Trump's efforts to secure the border, finish the wall, end catch-and-release policies, and deport dangerous criminal illegal immigrants.”

“I also support the SAVE Act to ensure only American citizens can vote in federal elections.”

06

Second Amendment & Gun Regulation

high salience

Smead advocates background checks and transaction records to prevent gun violence, whereas Stigall considers Second Amendment rights non-negotiable and opposes federal restrictions.

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports gun safety reforms and Second Amendment

Smead respects the Second Amendment right to bear arms while calling for pragmatic gun regulations to address youth firearm deaths. He advocates universal background checks, safe storage laws, and documented firearm transfers.

  • Mandate background checks on all firearm transactions
  • Implement safe storage regulations
  • Require basic record-keeping when firearms are sold or transferred

“I support and appreciate the Second Amendment because it works to keep tyrants at bay. However, guns are now the leading cause of death for children in Missouri — that’s not politics, that’s reality.”

“That means requiring background checks on gun sales, encouraging safe storage, and documenting gun transactions.”

Republican Chris Stigall

Opposes federal gun restrictions

Stigall views the Second Amendment as non-negotiable and opposes federal gun control legislation. He believes gun violence should be combated by holding violent criminals accountable rather than imposing restrictions on law-abiding citizens.

  • Oppose federal gun control legislation and overreach
  • Protect law-abiding citizens' constitutional right to keep and bear arms
  • Focus criminal justice policy on penalizing violent criminals

“The Second Amendment is not negotiable. I support President Trump's commitment to protecting the constitutional rights of law-abiding gun owners and will oppose efforts to restrict those rights through federal overreach.”

“In Congress, I will fight to defend our right to keep and bear arms while ensuring criminals, not responsible citizens, are held accountable for violent crime.”

07

Education & School Choice

medium salience

Smead opposes sending public tax funds to private institutions, while Stigall actively promotes school choice initiatives.

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports funding public schools exclusively

Smead advocates universal pre-K education and insists federal and state education funding remain strictly within public schools. He opposes school voucher models that direct tax dollars to private or religious schools.

  • Institute universal pre-kindergarten programs nationwide
  • Restrict public education tax dollars from funding private or religious institutions
  • Create national bonus incentives for teachers serving in rural and high-need districts

“Public education funding belongs in public schools, not private or religious institutions.”

Republican Chris Stigall

Supports school choice programs

Stigall actively works with organizations like the Herzog Foundation to promote school choice options for families seeking alternatives to local public schools.

  • Promote school choice options for families through non-profit advocacy
  • Expand educational freedom beyond traditional public school systems
08

Governance & Electoral Reform

medium salience

Smead focuses governance reform on congressional term limits and campaign finance restrictions, whereas Stigall emphasizes proof-of-citizenship voting requirements.

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports congressional term limits and campaign reform

Smead supports mandatory term limits for members of Congress, uncapping the number of U.S. House seats, and passing a constitutional amendment to regulate campaign spending. He strongly criticizes efforts to overturn democratic election results.

  • Enact mandatory term limits for federal lawmakers
  • Pass a constitutional amendment declaring money is not speech to regulate campaign finance
  • Uncap the total number of Representatives in the U.S. House
  • Investigate executive overreach and events surrounding January 6, 2021

“Term limits are necessary and long overdue. The House of Representatives is not a career path, we need responsive government that is in touch with the People.”

“On January 6, 2021 slates of fake electors were forged in an attempt to overthrow the Federal government and hand the 2020 election to Donald Trump.”

Republican Chris Stigall

Supports voter citizenship verification

Stigall focuses his election integrity platform on requiring strict citizenship proof for federal voting through legislation like the SAVE Act.

  • Enact the SAVE Act to mandate proof of U.S. citizenship for federal election voting

“I also support the SAVE Act to ensure only American citizens can vote in federal elections. Protecting the integrity of our elections and securing our border are fundamental responsibilities of the federal government.”

09

Infrastructure & Energy Grid

medium salience

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports green energy grid investments

Smead calls for major federal investments in rural roads, bridges, clean water, and flood management systems. He champions renewable transmission projects like the Grain Belt Express to supply low-cost power and enhance grid stability.

  • Support regional clean energy projects including the Grain Belt Express
  • Secure federal funding for rural roads, bridges, water infrastructure, and flood control
  • Fully fund rural broadband expansion across unserved communities

“Rural infrastructure has been neglected for too long—roads, bridges, water systems, and flood control need urgent investment.”

“Projects like the Grain Belt Express offer exactly that — stable, low-cost power delivered to dozens of Missouri communities while strengthening our grid against blackouts and extreme weather.”

Republican Chris Stigall No documented position in our sources
10

Cryptocurrency & Digital Finance

medium salience
Democratic Josh Smead No documented position in our sources

Republican Chris Stigall

Supports digital asset innovation

Stigall supports digital finance growth, backing Trump's plan to make the U.S. a global leader in cryptocurrency. He opposes heavy federal regulation that could drive tech capital overseas to competitors like China.

  • Prevent burdensome federal regulations on digital asset companies
  • Ensure the United States leads global innovation in digital finance over foreign competitors

“I support President Trump's efforts to make America the world leader in cryptocurrency and digital asset innovation.”

11

Labor & Organized Unions

medium salience

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports union organizing and fair wages

Smead strongly aligns with organized labor, crediting unions with creating middle-class workplace standards. He opposes federal policy changes that restrict collective bargaining rights or undercut federal employee union contracts.

  • Protect workers' right to organize and bargain collectively without interference
  • Strengthen protections and contract rights for federal employees
  • Support prevailing wage standards for infrastructure construction

“I’m proudly pro-union because workers deserve a real voice, fair wages, and the freedom to organize without interference.”

Republican Chris Stigall No documented position in our sources
12

Civil Rights & LGBTQ+ Protection

low salience

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports ERA and non-discrimination

Smead champions equal protection under the law for all citizens, advocating ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment and statutory anti-discrimination protections for LGBTQ+ individuals.

  • Support adoption of the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA)
  • Oppose discriminatory legislation targeting LGBTQ+ individuals

“Everyone deserves to live freely and equally — no exceptions. I believe in a government that protects rights, not one that polices personal lives.”

Republican Chris Stigall No documented position in our sources
13

Postal Service Preservation

low salience

Democratic Josh Smead

Opposes USPS privatization

Smead opposes privatizing the United States Postal Service, maintaining that reliable mail delivery is a vital public service necessary for rural communities.

  • Protect universal rural mail delivery services
  • Oppose federal efforts to privatize or reduce Postal Service funding

“The U.S. Postal Service is a service — not a profit machine. Just like we do not ask if the military turns a profit, we should not gut the Postal Service for failing to make one.”

Republican Chris Stigall No documented position in our sources
14

Veterans Affairs

low salience

Democratic Josh Smead

Opposes cuts to VA services

Smead opposes workforce reductions and service cuts at the Department of Veterans Affairs, arguing federal budgets should fully support military veterans rather than prioritize tax cuts.

  • Protect job positions and medical services within the VA system
  • Oppose budget cuts targeting veteran care programs

“I cannot understand why we are cutting jobs and services for Veterans, all to pay for a tax cut for the billionaires.”

Republican Chris Stigall No documented position in our sources
15

Selective Service & Military Draft

low salience

Democratic Josh Smead

Supports gender-neutral military draft

Smead advocates updating military registration laws to require all able-bodied adults, regardless of gender, to register for Selective Service.

  • Expand Selective Service registration requirements to include both men and women

“I believe the Draft should include all able bodied Men & Women.”

Republican Chris Stigall No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MO-06 House Election Winner

94.5% Republicans
5.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 94.5DEMOCRATS 5.5

Kalshi ↗

MO-06 House winner?

93.1% Republicans
7.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16STIGALL 97.2REPUBLICANS 93.1DEMOCRATS 7.5SMEAD 6.0

Kalshi ↗

MO-06 Republican nominee?

99.0% Chris Stigall
2.0% Nathan Hall Willett
1.0% Cody J Oshel

+2 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16STIGALL 99.0WILLETT 2.0INGRAM 1.0OSHEL 1.0SCHULTZ 1.0

Kalshi ↗

MO-06 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Josh Smead
1.0% Scot Pondelick
1.0% Matt Levine
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16SMEAD 99.0LEVINE 1.0PONDELICK 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.