Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Missouri Likely

Missouri — 5th District

Portrait of Emanuel Cleaver

Democrat

Emanuel Cleaver

The 2026 general election for Missouri's 5th Congressional District features long-time Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver facing Republican nominee Rick Brattin, a state senator and Marine veteran. The race hinges on the district's newly redrawn boundaries following state legislative redistricting efforts, contrasting Cleaver's decade-spanning record of securing federal funding and bipartisan housing reform against Brattin's conservative platform focused on border enforcement, tax cuts, and opposition to woke programs. Major rating outlets reflect district line uncertainties, with Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rating the district Solid/Safe Republican, DDHQ rating it Likely Republican, and Inside Elections rating it Solid Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
93.9%
Republicans
3.0%
Kalshi ↗
Democrats
94.5%
Republicans
4.2%
Kalshi ↗
Rick Brattin
99.0%
Berton A Knox
1.0%
Micah Beebe
1.0%
Brad Patty
1.0%
Taylor Burks
1.0%
Brett Hueffmeier
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Cleaver promotes targeted federal economic investments and small business support, while Brattin advocates for cutting taxes, slashing regulations, and reducing federal spending.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports targeted investments and small businesses

Cleaver focuses on job creation, supporting small businesses as economic engines, and lowering prescription drug costs to ease household budgets. He has secured community project funds to foster local economic development in Missouri's 5th District.

  • Delivered $850,000 in federal funding for Grandview Station to support local vendors and small businesses.
  • Advocates for lowering prescription drug costs and extending ACA tax credits to protect family finances.

“Remaining focused on job creation, supporting small businesses, and making investments in our future economy are core values of Congressman Cleaver’s work in Congress.”

Republican Rick Brattin

Opposes tax hikes and federal spending

Brattin supports President Trump's economic agenda, advocating for tax cuts, deregulation, and boosting domestic energy production to combat inflation. In the Missouri legislature, he fought property tax increases and opposed government tax hikes.

  • Supports cutting taxes, slashing federal regulations, and unleashing domestic energy production.
  • Record of opposing tax hikes in Missouri and supporting legislative limits on local property taxes.

“With a proven record of opposing tax hikes in the Missouri legislature and fighting for legislation to place real limits on property taxes, he’ll fight in Congress against reckless spending that drives up our national debt and fuels inflation, working to put more money back in the pockets of hardworking Missourians.”

02

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

Cleaver focuses on oversight of DHS and opposes strict detention mandates, whereas Brattin advocates for building a border wall, fully funding ICE, and deporting undocumented immigrants.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports accountability and balanced oversight

Cleaver advocates for oversight and accountability regarding federal immigration enforcement agencies while raising concerns about expanding large detention facilities. He voted against conservative border enforcement measures like the Laken Riley Act and DUI deportation legislation.

  • Expressed concerns over proposed large DHS detention facilities in Kansas City regarding transparency and community impact.
  • Voted Nay on the Laken Riley Act and the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025.

“In a recent interview, Congressman Cleaver told local media that the Department of Homeland Security’s plan to expand large detention facilities — including one in Kansas City — raises serious questions about community impact and transparency”

Republican Rick Brattin

Supports strict border enforcement and deportation

Brattin aligns with President Trump's border agenda, calling for full funding for ICE, constructing a border wall, and deporting criminal illegal immigrants. In the state legislature, he sponsored penalties for businesses hiring undocumented workers and worked to ban sanctuary cities.

  • Backs building the border wall, fully funding ICE, and deporting criminal illegal immigrants.
  • Sponsored Missouri legislation to penalize employers hiring undocumented workers and ban sanctuary cities.

“In Congress, he’ll back President Trump’s efforts to build the wall, fully fund ICE, deport criminal illegal aliens, and end the policies that have encouraged the flood of illegal immigration into our communities.”

03

Abortion and Reproductive Health

high salience

Cleaver supports federal protection for abortion rights and healthcare choice, whereas Brattin opposes abortion access and pledges to defund Planned Parenthood.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports legal abortion and reproductive rights

Cleaver opposes the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade and believes reproductive decisions should remain between women and their healthcare providers. He has earned endorsements from major reproductive rights advocacy groups.

  • Endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund.
  • Opposes federal abortion bans and supports healthcare autonomy for women.

“Congressman Cleaver disagrees with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and believes that decision undermines women’s right to make their own health care decisions.”

Republican Rick Brattin

Opposes abortion and Planned Parenthood

Brattin holds a 100% pro-life record and vows to defund Planned Parenthood at the federal level. In Missouri, he voted to extend abortion waiting periods from 24 to 72 hours and supported parental notification rules.

  • Endorsed by Missouri Right to Life PAC in every legislative election.
  • Voted to extend state abortion waiting periods to 72 hours and require parental notification for minors.
  • Committed to defunding Planned Parenthood in Congress.

“In Congress, he’ll fight hard to defund Planned Parenthood and protect our most vulnerable citizens, the unborn.”

04

Gun Policy and Second Amendment

medium salience

Cleaver advocates for bipartisan gun safety legislation alongside funding for police, whereas Brattin opposes gun control restrictions and defends strict Second Amendment protections.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports common-sense gun safety laws

Cleaver advocates for bipartisan gun safety legislation that protects communities while respecting responsible gun ownership. He also supports providing adequate funding and training for local police departments to combat violent crime.

  • Supports common-sense gun safety laws and expanded resources for community safety.
  • Secured federal funding for public safety and upgrades for the Kansas City Police Department.

“Congressman Cleaver supports bipartisan, common-sense gun safety legislation, keeping our children and neighborhoods safe while respecting the responsible ownership of guns.”

Republican Rick Brattin

Opposes restrictions on gun ownership

Brattin is an active NRA member with a record of expanding firearm rights in Missouri. He helped craft state constitutional protections for gun rights, backed the Second Amendment Preservation Act, and filed bills protecting firearm manufacturers from government discrimination.

  • Voted for Missouri's Second Amendment Preservation Act (SAPA).
  • Sponsored legislation preventing government entities from contracting with companies discriminating against gun manufacturers.

“In Congress, he’ll bring that same fight to the national level and stand firm against any attempt to infringe on our God-given right to keep and bear arms.”

05

Education and Culture Issues

medium salience

Cleaver focuses on expanding educational funding and job training, while Brattin seeks to remove woke programs and restrict certain books in school libraries.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports public education and workforce training

Cleaver prioritizes funding for public education, higher education affordability, and workforce development programs. He has received endorsements from national education organizations and launched congressional oversight into veterinary school workloads.

  • Endorsed by the National Education Association (NEA).
  • Launched a congressional inquiry into workload and well-being safeguards at U.S. veterinary schools.

“He wants to ensure students have the skills and education needed for thevjobs of today and of the future.”

Republican Rick Brattin

Opposes woke agenda and supports parental rights

Serving as Chairman of the Missouri Senate Education Committee, Brattin advocates eliminating woke and DEI programs in schools and federal agencies. He supports parental rights in education and has sponsored legislation banning explicit books in school libraries.

  • Sponsored state legislation to protect parental rights and remove explicit materials from school libraries.
  • Pledges to defund ideological programs and remove political agendas from federal education funding.

“Rick will fight to ensure our schools focus on teaching children how to think, not indoctrinating them with a radical political agenda.”

06

Veterans and Defense

low salience

Cleaver focuses on securing legislative funding for veteran healthcare and tick-borne disease research, while Brattin emphasizes his service record as a Marine Corps veteran.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports expanded veteran care and medical research

Cleaver advocates for improving healthcare and benefits for veterans. He also successfully secured $5 million in defense funding for alpha-gal syndrome research through a bipartisan NDAA amendment.

  • Secured $5 million for alpha-gal syndrome research in the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act.
  • Advocates for expanding healthcare services and earned benefits for military veterans.

“He supports improving health care for veterans and ensuring that they receive the benefits they have earned protecting our country.”

Republican Rick Brattin

Supports veteran affairs and military readiness

Brattin, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran, served on Missouri's Seniors, Families, Veterans and Military Affairs Committee and emphasizes support for service members and national security.

  • Marine Corps veteran who served on the Missouri Senate Seniors, Families, Veterans and Military Affairs Committee.

“I spent six years as a United States Marine, and I’ve spent years in the Missouri Senate fighting for Missouri families.”

07

Housing and Community Development

high salience

Cleaver emphasizes federal investment and bipartisan legislation to expand housing supply and affordability, while Brattin has no documented platform on housing.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports expanding affordable housing access

Cleaver has made housing reform a centerpiece of his legislative career, serving as a lead architect of the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. He has also secured federal community project funding for housing improvements and local infrastructure across Missouri's 5th District.

  • Co-authored the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act to expand national housing supply and homeownership access.
  • Secured over $13 million in federal community project funding for public housing upgrades and neighborhood revitalization.

“Growing up in public housing inspired Congressman Cleaver to make accessible, affordable housing for all a life-long crusade.”

“A lead architect of the legislation, Cleaver emphasized that the bill was crafted through bipartisan cooperation to expand housing supply, improve affordability and help more Americans achieve homeownership.”

Republican Rick Brattin No documented position in our sources
08

Healthcare and Senior Programs

medium salience

Cleaver actively works to expand ACA tax credits, Medicaid, and senior entitlements, whereas Brattin has no documented healthcare platform in the source materials.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports strengthening ACA, Medicare, and Medicaid

Cleaver actively defends the Affordable Care Act, supporting legislation to restore premium tax credits and lower prescription drug prices. He advocates for Medicaid expansion and protecting the long-term solvency of Social Security and Medicare.

  • Co-sponsored House legislation to restore ACA premium tax credits following regional rate hikes.
  • Supports Medicaid expansion and long-term solvency protections for Social Security and Medicare.

“He has been an ardent supporter and defender of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which has helped bring coverage to millions of Americans.”

“He has and will continue to fight for the investments needed to maintain these programs for our seniors.”

Republican Rick Brattin No documented position in our sources
09

Foreign Policy and China

medium salience

Brattin explicitly targets Chinese ownership of land and economic influence, whereas Cleaver's documented platform does not address China policy.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver No documented position in our sources

Republican Rick Brattin

Supports restricting Chinese land ownership and economic influence

Brattin views China as a key economic and national security threat. In the Missouri Senate, he filed legislation banning foreign land ownership near defense sites and voted against subsidizing a Chinese air cargo hub.

  • Filed Missouri legislation to ban foreign land ownership near military installations and defense manufacturing sites.
  • Voted against state subsidies for a Chinese air cargo hub at St. Louis airport.

“In Congress, he’ll hold China accountable and work to reduce our dependence on Chinese goods.”

10

Transportation and Infrastructure

medium salience

Cleaver highlights his record securing federal funding for local transit and infrastructure projects, while Brattin has no documented platform on transportation.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports federal infrastructure and transit investments

Cleaver emphasizes securing federal infrastructure funds for Missouri's 5th District. His efforts have delivered billions in funding for highways, bridges, transit, water projects, and local revitalization.

  • Secured over $13 million in federal funds for transit, public safety, and neighborhood projects in Missouri's 5th District.

“His efforts have secured billions of dollars investment for our community and State, including the repair and new construction of highways, roads, bridges, transit, and water projects.”

Republican Rick Brattin No documented position in our sources
11

Democracy, Voting Rights, and Redistricting

medium salience

Cleaver actively opposes redrawn congressional maps and voted against federal proof-of-citizenship voting rules, while Brattin has no documented stance on election administration.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Opposes partisan gerrymandering and restrictive voter laws

Cleaver has strongly opposed Missouri's 2025 congressional redistricting plan, arguing that redrawing district boundaries dilutes fair representation for Kansas City voters. He also voted against the SAVE Act in Congress.

  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration.
  • Publicly criticized state redistricting efforts as gerrymandering intended to undermine urban voter representation.

“In national broadcast coverage, Congressman Cleaver discusses the unprecedented efforts by Missouri lawmakers to redraw congressional maps — a move he says threatens fair representation and could undermine voter influence in Kansas City.”

Republican Rick Brattin No documented position in our sources
12

Labor and Union Rights

low salience

Cleaver strongly champions union collective bargaining rights and federal workers, whereas Brattin has no documented labor platform.

Democratic Emanuel Cleaver

Supports collective bargaining and federal workers

Cleaver is a strong supporter of organized labor and federal employees, earning an endorsement from the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE). He intervened in the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant strike, urging management to bargain in good faith.

  • Endorsed by AFGE with a 100% legislative voting score on union priorities.
  • Urged Olin Winchester management to negotiate in good faith with over 1,300 striking union workers at Lake City Army Ammunition Plant.

“In a letter to company leadership, they emphasized that collective bargaining is a cornerstone of U.S. labor law and warned that prolonged delays could harm both working families and the nation’s defense supply chain.”

Republican Rick Brattin No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MO-05 House Election Winner

93.9% Democrats
3.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 93.9REPUBLICANS 3.0

Kalshi ↗

MO-05 House winner?

94.5% Democrats
4.2% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 94.5BRATTIN 86.0CLEAVER 21.0REPUBLICANS 4.2

Kalshi ↗

MO-05 Republican nominee?

99.0% Rick Brattin
1.0% Berton A Knox
1.0% Micah Beebe

+3 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16BRATTIN 99.0PATTY 1.0BURKS 1.0KNOX 1.0HUEFFMEIER 1.0BEEBE 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.