Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Missouri Safe R

Missouri — 4th District

In Missouri's 4th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Representative Mark Alford faces Democratic nominee Jordan Herrera, an Air Force veteran and attorney who won the August 4, 2026 primary. Alford, a first-term incumbent and former television news anchor, is campaigning on an 'America First' conservative platform emphasizing border security, deregulation, and spending restraint. Herrera is challenging the incumbent with a platform centered on economic security, housing affordability, healthcare expansion, agricultural anti-monopoly reform, and military restraint. Major election handicappers rate the general election matchup as Solid or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
92.5%
Democrats
7.5%
Kalshi ↗
Republicans
95.4%
Democrats
2.4%
Kalshi ↗
Mark Alford
99.0%
Heather Shelton
1.0%
Scott Vincent Vera
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Jordan Herrera
99.0%
Jeanette Cass
1.0%
Wayne Russell
1.0%
Randy Miller
1.0%
Hartzell Gray 3rd
1.0%
G Rick
1.0%
Ashleigh Rogers
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Herrera supports capping rent increases, expanding housing tax credits, and regulating corporate home buyers, whereas Alford favors conservative tax cuts, rolling back regulations, and imposing stricter work requirements on safety-net programs.

Democratic Jordan Herrera

Supports housing caps and antitrust enforcement

Herrera treats the cost of living as an economic security crisis, prioritizing housing supply, rent control, and antitrust enforcement against corporate consolidation. He advocates for declaring a National Housing Emergency, enacting a Middle-Income Housing Tax Credit, capping annual rent increases, and limiting institutional investors from bulk-buying single-family homes.

  • Proposes declaring a National Housing Emergency to accelerate housing construction and lower building material costs.
  • Supports a national cap on annual rent increases and creating a Middle-Income Housing Tax Credit.
  • Calls for stronger antitrust enforcement and restrictions on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes.

“The number one driver of homelessness today is the cost of housing. If people cannot afford to stay in their homes, nothing else works.”

Republican Mark Alford

Supports conservative tax and spending cuts

Alford favors free-market economic policies, tax relief, and spending cuts to combat inflation. He voted for conservative fiscal measures including the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 and the 2025 Reconciliation Act, and signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing tax increases.

  • Voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 to raise the debt limit while repealing green energy tax credits and expanding SNAP/TANF work requirements.
  • Voted for the 2025 Reconciliation Act (H.R.1) addressing tax policy, federal spending, and statutory debt limits.
  • Signed Americans for Tax Reform's Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing any net tax hikes.

“We’re securing the border, securing our communities by combating violent crime, securing our economy, and securing our nation by restoring American leadership on the world stage.”

02

Immigration and border security

high salience

Alford supports strict border enforcement, asylum restrictions, mandatory E-Verify, and citizenship proof for voter registration, while Herrera advocates for targeted non-intrusive border tech, earned pathways to citizenship, and DACA protections while opposing mass deportation.

Democratic Jordan Herrera

Supports earned citizenship and border tech

Herrera supports combining targeted border security technology with legal pathways to citizenship. He advocates expanding non-intrusive inspection tech at ports of entry, hiring more immigration judges to clear backlogs, granting permanent status to DACA recipients, creating an earned pathway to citizenship for long-term residents, and expanding H-2A/H-2B workforce visas.

  • Supports expanding non-intrusive inspection technology at ports of entry through legislation like the CATCH Fentanyl Act.
  • Advocates an earned pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the U.S. for 10+ years without serious criminal records.
  • Supports permanent legal status for DACA recipients and opposes mass deportation without due process.

“This is how we stop trafficking, not with slogans, but with results.”

Republican Mark Alford

Supports strict border enforcement and restrictions

Alford prioritizes hardline border enforcement and strict immigration laws as key pillars of his agenda. He voted for major House immigration measures restricting asylum eligibility, requiring mandatory E-Verify, mandating detention for non-citizens arrested for theft, and making DUI grounds for deportation.

  • Voted for the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2) to limit asylum eligibility and mandate E-Verify.
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) to require detention of non-citizens arrested for burglary or theft.
  • Voted to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over federal border enforcement.

“We’re securing the border, securing our communities by combating violent crime, securing our economy, and securing our nation by restoring American leadership on the world stage.”

03

Healthcare

high salience

Herrera supports building toward Medicare for All with an ACA public option and expanded Medicare benefits, whereas Alford has voted to end federal pandemic health emergency measures.

Democratic Jordan Herrera

Supports public option and Medicare expansion

Herrera treats healthcare as essential infrastructure, setting a long-term goal of Medicare for All while advocating near-term expansion of the ACA with a public option. He supports expanding Medicare to cover dental, vision, and hearing, protecting rural hospital funding, capping drug costs, and expanding VA healthcare for veterans.

  • Supports expanding Medicare to include dental, vision, and hearing, and adding an ACA public option.
  • Advocates protecting Medicaid and Medicare funding to prevent rural hospital closures in Missouri.
  • Proposes using Bayh-Dole Act march-in rights to stop pharmaceutical price gouging.

“It is my belief that healthcare is an infrastructural need for a dignified American life.”

Republican Mark Alford

Opposes federal health mandates and regulations

Alford favors rolling back federal health mandates and emergency declarations, voting to terminate CDC vaccine mandates for foreign travel and end national emergency designations. He serves as Vice Chair of the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Subcommittee.

  • Voted for H.R. 185 to terminate CDC COVID-19 vaccine requirements for foreign travelers.
  • Voted for H.J.Res. 7 to terminate the COVID-19 national emergency declaration.
  • Serves as Vice Chair of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies.

“I’m fighting alongside President Trump in Washington every single day to deliver on our shared America First agenda.”

04

Abortion and reproductive rights

high salience

Herrera supports codifying a woman's right to abortion and reproductive bodily autonomy, while Alford is explicitly pro-life and endorsed by Missouri Right to Life PAC.

Democratic Jordan Herrera

Supports federal abortion rights and family support

Herrera advocates for protecting abortion access and bodily autonomy as a fundamental personal medical decision. He complements his pro-choice stance with a 'support life' economic model that seeks to reduce abortion rates by providing universal paid family leave, subsidized prenatal care, affordable childcare, and robust safety net supports.

  • Pledges to defend access to safe abortion, contraception, and maternal healthcare.
  • Supports universal paid family leave, income-tied childcare subsidies, and a national milk bank system.
  • Frames reproductive decisions as individual freedoms that should be free from government interference.

“I will always fight to protect a woman’s right to make her own medical decisions, including abortion. That decision belongs to the individual, not the government.”

Republican Mark Alford

Opposes abortion; pro-life conservative

Alford takes a strong pro-life position, featuring anti-abortion advocacy prominently on his campaign website. He is endorsed by Missouri Right to Life PAC.

  • Maintains an explicitly pro-life stance as a core conservative platform issue.
  • Endorsed by the Missouri Right to Life PAC for his anti-abortion record.

“As the loudest, strongest, most consistent, unwavering voice for our values, farmers, small businesses, and veterans, I want to keep serving you.”

05

Agriculture and rural policy

medium salience

Herrera focuses on enforcing antitrust laws against agribusiness monopolies and passing Right to Repair, while Alford emphasizes his service on the House Agriculture Committee representing traditional farming interests.

Democratic Jordan Herrera

Supports Right to Repair and antitrust enforcement

Herrera advocates for protecting independent family farms against agribusiness monopolies and corporate consolidation. He supports enforcing the Packers and Stockyards Act, passing the FARM Act for Right to Repair, protecting seed freedom, and investing in regenerative agriculture and drought resilience.

  • Supports the FARM Act to grant farmers the Right to Repair their own agricultural machinery.
  • Advocates enforcement of the Packers and Stockyards Act and antitrust scrutiny of seed, fertilizer, and meatpacking monopolies.
  • Supports expanding USDA conservation programs and regenerative agriculture funding.

“If a farmer has only 1 or 2 buyers, that is not a free market. It is corporate control.”

Republican Mark Alford

Supports traditional agricultural interests and deregulation

Alford emphasizes his advocacy for Missouri's agricultural sector, having served on the House Committee on Agriculture during the 118th Congress. He positions himself as a defender of farmers against federal regulations.

  • Served on the House Committee on Agriculture (subcommittees on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry; Conservation, Research, and Biotechnology).
  • Promotes policies that reduce regulatory burdens on Missouri farmers and agricultural businesses.

“As the loudest, strongest, most consistent, unwavering voice for our values, farmers, small businesses, and veterans, I want to keep serving you.”

06

Elections and voting rights

medium salience

Alford voted for the SAVE Act to mandate proof of citizenship for voting, whereas Herrera strongly opposes the SAVE Act as voter suppression.

Democratic Jordan Herrera

Opposes SAVE Act and strict registration barriers

Herrera opposes legislation like the SAVE Act, arguing that requiring documentary proof of citizenship creates unnecessary barriers for voters such as married women with changed names, seniors, and trans individuals. He also advocates for removing dark money from political campaigns.

  • Opposes the SAVE Act, warning it disenfranchises citizens without immediate access to updated documentary proof.
  • Calls for eliminating dark money and reforming campaign finance through publicly funded campaigns.

“This is not about election security. We already have laws that make it illegal for non-citizens to vote, and cases of that are extremely rare. What this does is create barriers.”

Republican Mark Alford

Supports mandatory proof of citizenship for voting

Alford supports stricter election integrity laws, voting in favor of the SAVE Act to require documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration. He also endorsed a state constitutional amendment regarding initiated amendments and foreign campaign contributions.

  • Voted YES on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.
  • Endorsed Missouri Amendment 4 on ballot measure requirements and foreign contribution prohibitions.

“I’m fighting alongside President Trump in Washington every single day to deliver on our shared America First agenda.”

07

National defense and foreign policy

medium salience

Herrera supports military restraint, an immediate Gaza ceasefire, and halting offensive aid to Israel, while Alford supports a strong national defense posture aligned with Trump's America First agenda.

Democratic Jordan Herrera

Supports military restraint and Gaza ceasefire

Herrera, an Air Force veteran, emphasizes strategic restraint and diplomacy over military intervention. He calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, halting offensive U.S. military aid to Israel while maintaining defensive cooperation, conditioning aid on international law, and opposing military conflict with Iran.

  • Supports an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and halting offensive U.S. military support.
  • Opposes military conflict with Iran and sustained foreign engagements without explicit congressional authorization.
  • Refuses contributions from AIPAC and foreign PACs.

“What is happening in Gaza is not consistent with our understanding of proportional warfare. It is a Genocide.”

Republican Mark Alford

Supports strong defense and peace through strength

Alford supports robust defense spending and restoring American strength globally, serving on the House Armed Services Committee during his first term and Vice Chairing the Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction and VA in the 119th Congress.

  • Voted for the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY 2024 and FY 2025.
  • Serves as Vice Chair of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies.

“We’re securing the border, securing our communities by combating violent crime, securing our economy, and securing our nation by restoring American leadership on the world stage.”

08

LGBTQ+ rights and civil rights

medium salience

Herrera advocates for the Equality Act and trans military service, while Alford voted to prohibit transgender girls from participating in female school athletics.

Democratic Jordan Herrera

Supports Equality Act and LGBTQ+ rights

Herrera, an Air Force veteran who served under Don't Ask, Don't Tell, is a staunch defender of LGBTQIA+ rights. He advocates passing the Equality Act, protecting gender-affirming healthcare access under the ACA, defending marriage equality, and protecting the right of transgender individuals to serve in the military.

  • Supports passing the Equality Act and defending the Respect for Marriage Act.
  • Opposes bans on gender-affirming care and calls for pulling federal funds from providers offering conversion therapy.
  • Defends the right of LGBTQIA+ and transgender Americans to serve in the military.

“Trans service members, gay service members, every LGBTQIA+ American has the same right to serve this country as anyone else.”

Republican Mark Alford

Supports restrictions on transgender school sports

Alford supports conservative social policies regarding gender and athletics, voting in favor of legislation restricting participation in female school sports based on biological sex.

  • Voted YES on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28) to prohibit biological males from competing in female school sports.

“As the loudest, strongest, most consistent, unwavering voice for our values, farmers, small businesses, and veterans, I want to keep serving you.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MO-04 House Election Winner

92.5% Republicans
7.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 92.5DEMOCRATS 7.5

Kalshi ↗

MO-04 House winner?

95.4% Republicans
2.4% Democrats
255075100AUG 4AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 95.4ALFORD 94.2HERRERA 9.4DEMOCRATS 2.4

Kalshi ↗

MO-04 Republican nominee?

99.0% Mark Alford
1.0% Heather Shelton
1.0% Scott Vincent Vera
255075100AUG 2AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16ALFORD 99.0SHELTON 1.0VERA 1.0

Kalshi ↗

MO-04 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Jordan Herrera
1.0% Jeanette Cass
1.0% Wayne Russell

+4 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16HERRERA 99.0CASS 1.0RUSSELL 1.03RD 1.0RICK 1.0ROGERS 1.0MILLER 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.