Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Missouri Safe R

Missouri — 3rd District

The 2026 election for Missouri's 3rd Congressional District features Democratic nominee Bethany Mann challenging incumbent Republican Representative Bob Onder. The race hinges on Onder's strong conservative record—highlighted by hardline stances on abortion restrictions, election security, and gun rights—versus Mann's progressive platform emphasizing clean water infrastructure, labor protections, universal education, and Medicare for All. Major election handicappers, including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill, rate the race as Solid Republican or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
92.5%
Democrats
4.5%
Kalshi ↗
Republicans
97.1%
Democrats
3.2%
Kalshi ↗
Bob Onder
99.0%
John G Fraser
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Bethany E Mann
99.0%
Paul T Wilson
1.0%
Tommy Holstein
1.0%

All markets →

01

Abortion & Reproductive Freedom

high salience

Mann supports federal legislation protecting nationwide abortion access, whereas Onder authored Missouri's trigger ban prohibiting abortion.

Democratic Bethany Mann

Supports federal reproductive freedom rights

Mann views abortion access as an essential component of healthcare and a basic human right. She supports federal legislation to safeguard reproductive freedom and strongly opposes Missouri's trigger ban.

  • Supports the Women's Health Protection Act and ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment.
  • Opposes Missouri's abortion trigger ban due to its lack of exceptions for rape, incest, or maternal health conditions.
  • Endorsed by Abortion Action Missouri.

“Abortion is healthcare. Access to healthcare saves lives.”

“Reproductive Freedom: Defending abortion access as essential healthcare.”

Republican Bob Onder

Opposes abortion and supports bans

Onder is a longtime pro-life legislator who authored major state legislation restricting abortion and protecting crisis pregnancy centers. He played a primary role in passing Missouri's heartbeat bill and trigger law.

  • Authored SB1/SB5 in 2017 to enact strict health and safety rules for abortion clinics.
  • Principal co-author of the 2019 Heartbeat Bill (HB 126), which included a trigger clause banning abortion in Missouri.
  • Endorsed by Missouri Right to Life PAC.

“HB 126 included a trigger clause that enabled Missouri to be the first in the nation to protect all innocent human life.”

“I have been a pro-life leader my whole adult life.”

02

Healthcare & Public Health

high salience

Mann advocates for single-payer Medicare for All to guarantee universal coverage, while Onder led efforts to block Medicaid expansion and repeal Obamacare.

Democratic Bethany Mann

Supports Medicare for All and rural health

Mann treats healthcare as a fundamental human right and champions Medicare for All to uncouple health insurance from employment. She advocates for stabilizing rural hospitals, expanding telehealth, and capping drug prices.

  • Supports Medicare for All covering primary, mental, dental, vision, emergency, and prescription care.
  • Advocates for federal prescription drug price negotiations, including capping insulin prices.
  • Proposes emergency funding and payment reform to prevent rural hospital closures.

“Healthcare is a fundamental human right.”

“Medicare for All cuts the ties between healthcare and your job. It allows everyone to receive quality care that is affordable at the hospital, pharmacy, or doctor’s office.”

Republican Bob Onder

Opposes government healthcare expansion

Onder opposes government-managed healthcare programs and led state legislative efforts to block Medicaid expansion under Obamacare. He supports repealing the Affordable Care Act in favor of market-based reforms.

  • Led legislative opposition against Obamacare Medicaid expansion in 2021 and 2022.
  • Pledges to oppose Affordable Care Act implementation and work to repeal and replace it.

“Dr. Onder led successful fights against Obamacare Medicaid Expansion in 2021, and against Bidencare Medicaid Expansion in 2022.”

“We must oppose Obamacare implementation until it is repealed and replaced.”

03

Immigration & Border Security

high salience

Mann emphasizes tackling the root causes of international migration, whereas Onder focuses on strict law enforcement, mandatory detentions, and sanctuary city bans.

Democratic Bethany Mann

Supports addressing root causes of migration

Mann views immigration as a complex global challenge driven by climate change, natural disasters, and conflict. She calls on Congress to enact comprehensive reform addressing the root causes of border surges.

  • Identifies environmental disasters, poverty, and war as main drivers of border migration.
  • Calls for comprehensive congressional reform targeting underlying causes of border crises.

“Immigration will continue to be a major challenge until Congress meaningfully addresses the core issues leading to the crisis at the border.”

Republican Bob Onder

Supports strict border enforcement and deportation

Onder favors strict enforcement against undocumented immigration, including banning sanctuary cities and ending catch-and-release policies. In Congress, he voted for mandatory detention and deportation measures for noncitizens charged with specific crimes.

  • Sponsored Missouri's HB1549 to ban sanctuary cities and penalize contractors hiring undocumented workers.
  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring detention of noncitizens arrested for burglary or theft.
  • Voted Yea on H.R.875 making DUI offenses grounds for deportation or inadmissibility.

“As a member of the Missouri House, Dr. Onder sponsored and passed HB1549 in 2008 to ban Sanctuary Cities, crack down on public employers and contractors who hire illegal aliens, and end catch-and-release of illegal aliens.”

04

Economy, Taxes & Labor

high salience

Mann advocates for higher corporate taxes and federal union protections, while Onder favors cutting income taxes and reducing business regulations.

Democratic Bethany Mann

Supports corporate tax reform and union rights

Mann supports strengthening worker protections, raising corporate taxes to fair shares, and protecting union organizing. She strongly opposes 'Right to Work' legislation and backs the federal PRO Act.

  • Supports passing the PRO Act to strengthen collective bargaining and NLRB enforcement.
  • Opposes anti-union 'Right to Work' laws in Missouri.
  • Calls for corporate tax fairness and incentives for sustainable manufacturing.

“Workers should have the fundamental right to collectively bargain and join or start a union.”

“Corporations must pay their fair share in taxes.”

Republican Bob Onder

Supports income tax cuts and deregulation

Onder prioritizes tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks to stimulate job creation and economic growth. In the state legislature, he repeatedly sponsored income tax reductions.

  • Repeatedly sponsored Missouri income tax reduction bills (SB902, SB245, SB640).
  • Voted Yea on federal budget reconciliation legislation (H.R.1) addressing tax policy.

“Dr. Onder has repeatedly sponsored legislation to lower income taxes, including SB902 (2022), SB245 (2021), and SB640 (2020).”

“We need to get Missourians back to work by reducing taxes and improving our state’s regulatory environment.”

05

Education

medium salience

Mann advocates for universal pre-K and debt-free public higher education, while Onder focuses on school choice and banning Critical Race Theory in public schools.

Democratic Bethany Mann

Supports universal pre-K and public education funding

Mann proposes fully funding public education from universal early childhood education through higher education. She opposes diverting public education funds to private schools and supports student debt reform.

  • Proposes fully funded universal pre-K and competitive teacher pay.
  • Supports student loan reform and the College for All Act.
  • Opposes shifting public education funding to private school vouchers.

“Every American should be able to access fully and equitably-funded education.”

“It is time for full and equal funding for our educational system to ensure every student the best opportunity to succeed.”

Republican Bob Onder

Supports school choice and restricting CRT

Onder champions education freedom and opposes divisive social curricula in public schools. He sponsored legislation to ban Critical Race Theory from classroom instruction.

  • Sponsored SB638 in Missouri to ban Critical Race Theory instruction in public schools.
  • Promotes education freedom policies.

“Dr. Onder sponsored legislation, SB638, to guard against public school children being indoctrinated with divisive Critical Race Theory.”

06

Voting Rights & Election Integrity

medium salience

Mann advocates for federal legislation expanding mail-in voting and voter registration, whereas Onder led efforts to restrict mail-in voting and enact strict photo ID requirements.

Democratic Bethany Mann

Supports voting access and anti-gerrymandering reforms

Mann advocates expanding voting access through federal legislation, mail-in options, and same-day voter registration. She seeks to eliminate gerrymandering and lower signature thresholds for citizen ballot initiatives.

  • Supports passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and expanding mail-in voting.
  • Advocates for Election Day voter registration and anti-gerrymandering protections.
  • Supports reducing signature requirements for state initiative petitions.

“The right to vote is as fundamental as the Constitution, limiting access to voting options is antithetical to the basic idea of By The People.”

Republican Bob Onder

Supports stricter voter ID and paper ballot laws

Onder prioritizes strict election security laws, including photo ID mandates and paper ballots, while restricting early and mail-in voting. In Congress, he supported federal legislation requiring proof of citizenship to register.

  • Led state Senate passage of HB1878 mandating paper ballots, banning private election grants ('Zuckerbucks'), and limiting drop boxes.
  • Supported the SAVE Act (H.R.22) requiring proof of citizenship for federal election registration.

“In 2022, Dr. Onder was the Senate leader in negotiating a package of election reforms, HB1878, that made Missouri’s voting system among the most secure in the nation.”

07

Environment & Infrastructure

medium salience

Mann emphasizes strict environmental cleanup standards and clean energy spending, while Onder supports deregulation and market-driven infrastructure oversight.

Democratic Bethany Mann

Supports clean water protections and green energy

Mann uses her background as an environmental chemist to advocate for clean water infrastructure and removing toxic contaminants like lead and PFAS. She supports expanding clean energy initiatives and strengthening the Clean Water Act.

  • Prioritizes replacing lead water pipes and remediating toxic 'forever chemicals' (PFAS).
  • Advocates for federal investments in clean energy construction to generate union jobs.
  • Supports strengthening Clean Water Act regulations against corporate agricultural polluters.

“As an environmental chemist, I don’t guess—I use data to solve problems. My top priority is securing our future through two pillars: protecting public health and modernizing our infrastructure.”

Republican Bob Onder

Supports infrastructure oversight

Onder serves on key House committees overseeing national infrastructure and environmental policy. He votes for federal appropriations funding basic federal infrastructure programs.

  • Serves on the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure and its Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment.
  • Voted Yea on full-year continuing appropriations (H.R.5371 and H.R.1968).
08

Social & Cultural Issues

medium salience

Mann serves as an LGBTQIA+ caucus officer advocating gender equality, whereas Onder led efforts banning transgender treatments for minors and restricting women's sports categories.

Democratic Bethany Mann

Supports LGBTQIA+ protections and gender equity

Mann serves in leadership for state LGBTQIA+ advocacy and supports constitutional protections against gender discrimination. She opposes state interference in personal identity and civil rights.

  • Serves as Vice Chair of the Missouri Democrats LGBTQIA+ Caucus.
  • Supports ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment and equal protection under federal law.

“Equitable access to healthcare is a human right, and no one should experience discrimination because of their gender.”

Republican Bob Onder

Opposes transgender medical care for minors and trans athletes

Onder strongly opposes transgender medical procedures for youth and transgender participation in women's sports categories. He sponsored religious liberty legislation in Missouri and voted for federal restrictions on transgender athletes.

  • Led advocacy prohibiting transgender hormone treatments and surgeries for minors.
  • Sponsored SJR 39 (Religious Liberty Amendment) in the Missouri Senate.
  • Voted Yea on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R.28).

“...led citizen groups in the fight against gender activists, leading to the passage of legislation to protect women’s sports and outlaw harmful transgender hormonal or surgical “treatments” of children.”

09

Gun Rights & The Second Amendment

low salience
Democratic Bethany Mann No documented position in our sources

Republican Bob Onder

Supports expanding Second Amendment rights

Onder is a lifetime NRA member with a record of expanding concealed carry rights and firearm protections in Missouri. He authored legislation expanding self-defense rights and protecting state gun laws from federal enforcement.

  • Led passage of Constitutional Carry in 2016 and the Second Amendment Preservation Act in 2019.
  • Sponsored expansions to the Castle Doctrine and concealed carry rights on public transit.
  • Earned an 'A' rating from the National Rifle Association.

“Dr. Onder was a leader in the Senate leading to the passage of Constitutional Carry in 2016 and the Second Amendment Preservation Act in 2019.”

10

Agriculture & Rural Development

low salience

Democratic Bethany Mann

Supports independent family farms and price protections

Mann proposes federal price supports and loan guarantees to shield family farms from agribusiness monopolies. She advocates restricting foreign corporate purchases of Missouri agricultural land.

  • Proposes crop price guarantees, government loan reserves, and subsidies for soil conservation.
  • Opposes foreign corporate acquisitions of Missouri farmland.
  • Supports strengthening Clean Water Act enforcement on corporate livestock feeding operations (CAFOs).

“Instead of subsidizing large agribusiness corporations, farmers should get a fair price for their crops, reduce overproduction, and get paid for conserving American farmland.”

Republican Bob Onder No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MO-03 House Election Winner

92.5% Republicans
4.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 92.5DEMOCRATS 4.5

Kalshi ↗

MO-03 House winner?

97.1% Republicans
3.2% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 97.1ONDER 94.4MANN 7.9DEMOCRATS 3.2

Kalshi ↗

MO-03 Republican nominee?

99.0% Bob Onder
1.0% John G Fraser
255075100AUG 2AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16ONDER 99.0FRASER 1.0

Kalshi ↗

MO-03 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Bethany E Mann
1.0% Paul T Wilson
1.0% Tommy Holstein
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MANN 99.0WILSON 1.0HOLSTEIN 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.