Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Minnesota Likely R

Minnesota — 8th District

In Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, four-term incumbent Republican Pete Stauber faces Democratic nominee Trina Swanson in the November 3, 2026 general election following primary wins on August 11, 2026. The race hinges on economic concerns, mining and environmental protection in the Iron Range and Boundary Waters region, and federal governance. Major election handicappers rate the district as Solid Republican or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
85.5%
Democrats
13.5%
Kalshi ↗
Pete Stauber
90.2%
Trina Swanson
12.0%
Kalshi ↗
Trina Swanson
99.0%
Luke Gulbranson
1.0%
Emanuel Anastos
1.0%
Bob Helland
1.0%
John-Paul McBride
1.0%
Wendell Smith
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Swanson prioritizes lowering everyday family expenses and building domestic supply chains, while Stauber focuses on tax reform pledges and voting for Republican budget reconciliation bills.

Democratic Trina Swanson

Lowering costs for working families

Swanson makes affordability her top priority, citing high costs in healthcare, housing, groceries, childcare, and energy. She advocates for strengthening domestic supply chains and supporting good-paying jobs across mining, manufacturing, and the skilled trades.

  • Focus on lowering costs for groceries, healthcare, housing, childcare, and energy
  • Strengthen domestic supply chains
  • Support good-paying jobs in mining, manufacturing, and skilled trades

“Working families in northern and central Minnesota are doing everything right, but costs keep rising faster than wages.”

Republican Pete Stauber

Reforming taxes and cutting federal spending

Stauber advocates for tax reforms designed to leave more income with families and signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge with Americans for Tax Reform. In Congress, he voted for major tax and spending reconciliation measures including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

  • Signed Americans for Tax Reform's Taxpayer Protection Pledge
  • Voted for the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024
  • Voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1) budget reconciliation bill in 2025

“I support the ongoing efforts to reform our tax code which puts more money into the pockets of our families.”

02

Mining, Energy, and Environment

high salience

While both candidates support mineral extraction, Swanson explicitly conditions development on protecting the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, whereas Stauber leads House subcommittee efforts to expand domestic production and reduce permitting barriers.

Democratic Trina Swanson

Critical mineral mining with BWCA protections

Swanson supports the responsible extraction of critical minerals to support domestic industry while emphasizing environmental stewardship. She explicitly pledges to protect the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA).

  • Support responsible extraction of critical minerals
  • Protect the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA)
  • Balance industrial development with environmental protections

“It means investing in infrastructure, supporting responsible extraction of critical minerals while protecting the environment, protecting the BWCA”

Republican Pete Stauber

Expand domestic mining and energy production

Stauber serves as Chairman of the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, backing iron ore and precious metals mining. He voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act to streamline energy permitting and boost domestic oil, gas, and coal output.

  • Chairs the House Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee
  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to reduce energy project permitting restrictions
  • Voted to repeal green energy tax credits under the Limit, Save, Grow Act

“I support iron ore and precious metals mining which employs scientifically- based methods to ensure our environment remains pristine.”

03

Healthcare

high salience

Swanson advocates for federal action to lower prescription drug costs and expand rural clinics, while Stauber supports market-driven, patient-centered health systems over government administration.

Democratic Trina Swanson

Lower drug costs and expand rural access

Swanson views healthcare as vital to both family stability and rural economic survival. She focuses on lowering prescription drug costs, preserving Medicare, and expanding rural healthcare clinics.

  • Lower prescription drug prices
  • Expand rural healthcare clinic access
  • Protect Medicare benefits

“When a community loses its clinic, that's an economic crisis.”

Republican Pete Stauber

Patient-driven, market-based healthcare reform

Stauber advocates for patient-centered healthcare reforms that emphasize affordability and physician guidance rather than federal control.

  • Support patient-driven and physician-guided healthcare models
  • Oppose federal government management of health plans

“I support high quality, affordable and accessible healthcare which is patient-driven and physician-guided, putting individuals in charge of their healthcare rather than the government.”

04

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience

Swanson highlights her career as a federal immigration official supporting law-based reform, whereas Stauber favors strict border enforcement bills restricting asylum eligibility and mandating E-Verify.

Democratic Trina Swanson

Border security with law-based reform

Swanson cites her 25-year career in federal service, including managing overseas operations for U.S. Citizenship & Immigration Services. She advocates for border security alongside legal immigration reform that upholds human rights.

  • Leverage experience running operations for U.S. Citizenship & Immigration Services
  • Support border protection combined with rule-of-law immigration reform

“While running immigration operations in three countries, I followed the law and kept our country safe.”

Republican Pete Stauber

Enforce strict border restrictions and laws

Drawing on his background as a former police officer, Stauber emphasizes strict enforcement of existing immigration laws. He voted for the Secure the Border Act, the Laken Riley Act, and the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

  • Voted for the Secure the Border Act (H.R. 2) to limit asylum eligibility and mandate E-Verify
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) to detain noncitizens arrested for theft
  • Voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas

“As a retired law enforcement officer, I believe we need to abide by the laws that are put in place and will support LEGAL immigrants who aspire to live the American dream.”

05

Government Ethics and Oversight

medium salience

Swanson proposes prohibiting members of Congress from trading stocks to ensure ethical transparency, while Stauber has focused on voting legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship.

Democratic Trina Swanson

Ban congressional stock trading and boost transparency

Swanson prioritizes government accountability, ethical standards, and oversight. She explicitly proposes prohibiting members of Congress from holding or trading individual stocks while in office.

  • Prohibit members of Congress from holding or trading stock
  • Promote transparent oversight and government accountability

“Congresspeople should not be allowed to hold or trade stock when in office.”

Republican Pete Stauber

Enhance voter proof of citizenship and court reform

Stauber has voted for election integrity legislation and restrictions on federal court authority, including requiring documentary proof of citizenship to vote and limiting nationwide district court injunctions.

  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote
  • Voted for the NORRA of 2025 (H.R. 1526) to restrict federal district court injunction powers
  • Voted to authorize the formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden
06

Social Security and Senior Programs

medium salience

Swanson explicitly focuses on protecting Medicare and Social Security from benefit reductions, while Stauber voted for the Social Security Fairness Act to reduce pension offsets.

Democratic Trina Swanson

Protect Medicare and Social Security benefits

Swanson includes protecting Social Security and Medicare as a key pillar of her affordability and senior support platform.

  • Protect Medicare and Social Security benefits from cuts

“I will focus on lowering prescription drug prices, expanding rural health care access, protecting Medicare and Social Security, strengthening domestic supply chains, and supporting good-paying jobs in mining, manufacturing, and the skilled trades.”

Republican Pete Stauber

Reform Social Security benefit offsets

Stauber voted in favor of bipartisan legislation aimed at eliminating Social Security benefit offsets for individuals receiving government pensions.

  • Voted for the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 (H.R. 82)
07

Abortion

low salience
Democratic Trina Swanson No documented position in our sources

Republican Pete Stauber

Oppose abortion from conception

Stauber maintains a pro-life platform, supporting legal protections for unborn children starting at conception.

  • Support pro-life legislation from conception to natural death

“I support life from conception to natural death and will always be a strong and constant voice for the right to life.”

08

Gun Rights

low salience
Democratic Trina Swanson No documented position in our sources

Republican Pete Stauber

Protect Second Amendment rights

Stauber pledges to protect Second Amendment gun ownership rights and oppose attempts to restrict firearm possession for law-abiding citizens.

  • Defend individual firearm rights under the Second Amendment
  • Oppose legislation aimed at restricting gun ownership

“I am committed to protecting the Second Amendment which guarantees the right of individual, law-abiding citizens to keep and bear arms and will fight any attempts to weaken it.”

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MN-08 House Election Winner

85.5% Republicans
13.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 85.5DEMOCRATS 13.5

Kalshi ↗

MN-08 House winner?

90.2% Pete Stauber
12.0% Trina Swanson
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16STAUBER 90.2PARTY 84.0PARTY 13.0SWANSON 12.0

Kalshi ↗

MN-08 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Trina Swanson
1.0% Luke Gulbranson
1.0% Emanuel Anastos

+3 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16SWANSON 99.0GULBRANSON 1.0SMITH 1.0MCBRIDE 1.0ANASTOS 1.0HELLAND 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.